6 PM Update. GOM 20% -The Search for Francine and Gordon Goes On...As We Cruise Into September. First Week of September We Should... Have Something Official To Track. Invest? TD? TS? Hurricane. 2 Areas We Are Watching!! Labor Day Weekend... Enjoy IT!

Nice graphic.

20% Yellow in the GOM.

If you have already read the blog...

..you know I went long on GOM 

...the last few days.

Has a look.

Maybe it's just a look but....

... it now has it's own yellow X

Ensemble models show the orange circled area...

...moving into Caribbean 

And likely being a landfall threat for USA

As I mentioned but now models supporting what I said.

Stay tuned.

Lots of food used for hurricane supplies...

...will be on sale Labor Day Weekend.

And after Labor Day maybe on sale!

2024 Hurricane Season alive .... 

...are you prepared?

Keep reading if you didn't.

And, thanks for reading!

* * * 

Sticking with this until we get a Cone ;)

Shows what this is all about.

Tropical Atlantic.

Faux hurricane SE of FL

Illusion, just heavy rain.

No circulation.

IN the MDR

we have so many contenders.

Can count 5 little areas in that mess.

Messy mass of convection.

So what did the NHC do???

They dragged the orange further West.

Makes sense.

Forms later. Moves further West.

Orange 40% whenever - 20% yellow

7 days not 2 day...

X marks the spot NHC looking at.

Sometimes that spot jumps in real time.

Other times.... it develops at that spot.

All a matter of time...

..as the song goes.

Being honest this is what tracking in the tropics is all about and forecasting is about tracking. Now days we have modeling and usually modeling is awesome and helps us greatly see into the distant future. Sometimes when there is a messy area of convection with competing centers of development it takes longer to develop and models try so hard to grasp onto what will happen but they are run from a certain perspective and place and point and garbage in begets garbage out. Models are bad at picking up very small centers until they become stronger signals and sometimes close in development of a not purely tropical kind is missed as well. Once we have a center, a well defined center and we get information from recon and other satellite sources we get way better, more reliable models. Deep Down South we'd say "more better models" but til then everyone online is going to run with every model run as if they are playing Fantasy Football and this is not Fantasy Football. 

IF this is Francine and that name can easily be stolen if this wave complex dawdles along westward. Only time will tell. Until that time when one cell within the convective mass finally finds it's MOJO we are just shooting the tropical breeze. And, may I add we have a Labor Day Weekend without a Labor Day Hurricane. Well, not yet as I don't want to tempt fate as the original Labor Day Hurricane formed very close in and went through Rapid Intensificaitons so not counting my weekends until they are in the book and the book is closed with a smile and one last sunburn! 

Rather than freaking out that the NHC didn't move on up the ladder of colors to red with our orange circle, stop and remember what that means. That means as the long orange blimp shows that the longer it takes to form and the weaker it stays the further West it goes. Further West is more a player for the USA coast after the Islands. 

Remember Debby.... early analysis based on models showed Debby forming faster somewhere off the FL coast near the Bahamas and the Carolinas were watching. Formed way further West off the coast of Key West almost ....furtehr West than where the early models indicated it could form. Formed in real time. Will add the area off of Florida and the Carolinas known as the Georgia Bight did get tropical weather but that was not a cone but a formation zone of possibilities. Something was wrong with the early modeling and yet even though many thought Debby might never form, Debby did form and made landfall and went further inland into the Carolinas after leaving Florida than original models indicated. 

They are models. When models do not line up with what is happening synoptically and offer possible solutions that are not verifying, it's not a time for wishcasting but analytical thinking. Saw the word "analytics" today on X when it tells you how many people have looked at your post and thought to myself, this is the problem currently. We need more analytical thinking as well as looking at the synoptics and remembering models are making a guess and that guess, that possible forecast is only as good a model run til the next model run. With no defined center each model run has a very fast expiration date. Don't invest too much energy into any one model run at least until we have a real Invest. That said the GFS Club 384 definitely adds some spice and entertainment to our day ...especially when it's quiet.

GOM is still producing convection and there is a small mid level sense of circulation there and remember this all started with an Upper Level Low moving inland and dropping anchor. Off the SE coast of FL is an area thats a huge convective cluster that's upping the ante for storms over Florida and I mean every day someone texts me "I'm telling you this storm is stronger than most Tropical Storms" and I look at the video and nod. Florida in September is all about September rain any time of the day.... 

There's a front taking it's time moving towards the Carolinas. Every single day they push back the forecast arrival back by a day or so. That is because the models are not handling the frontal boundary any better than they are the tropical wave. IF a front pushes through then High Pressure sets up for a few days. Everything is timing with tropical analysis ....especially. Doorways open and slam shut often in real time. One could make a case for a late forming system, finding it's MOJO in the Caribbean similar to Debby and then what does it do? Depends on when it forms, where it forms, how well formed the center is vertically and what is upstream once it forms. Lots of variables. Let's say it forms in the area below that has been ripe and juicy. It won't be Debby, might be Francine unless the African Wave or something close in forms first. Francine and Gordon are the next two names and we do currently have two contenders. Maybe it becomes a cross between Debby and Ernesto. Time will tell. Further West it gets the stronger a front it needs to ride unless it just shuffles off to Central America, doubtful but definitely a sliver of a possibility tho not probable currently. 

Now we look at our 2nd area.

The Wave.

If you look closely there you will see...

... a slight twist.

Earthnull shows a vague circulation.

That's at 850 vs regular.

Regular shows it but this shows it better.

Where does it form? Is it vertically aligned? Could it take a more Ernesto track while the lead wave does more of a Debby? But it won't be Debby or Ernesto, it would be Francine and Gordon we could be tracking when September rolls around. In truth models have been backing off from September 4th to September 5th to September 7th in the Islands.

Analytically speaking the models are not currently handling this well, but then again they won't until a center forms.

That's it.

I don't post on Saturday so I went long today. And, I'm thinking I'll be out and about enjoying Carolina life on Sunday so wrote long today.  I love writing. I love watching weather especially the tropics and winter weather. And, I write long because I can and I have the time and I love it. And, I have friends that like to read what I write and if I don't post they check with me to make sure I'm not sick or there's a problem. Fans, friends... friendly stalkers lol and I enjoy writing though editing is not as much fun even though believe it or not I've made good money editing and writing.

Happy Labor Day.  Oh gosh, just remembered I had a child literally born on Labor Day haha on September 1st and because Amazon I'm sending him something now!!

Lastly, despite no hurricane barreling towards a coastal town the beach towns along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida will deal with lots of wild weather this weekend and perhaps beach goers will go inside and spent money at some of those beach based businesses that need that last big weekend of the Summer before we move into colder weather and only people like me head for the beach.

Today is a 2 for 1 song fest.

Because the first song showed up.

But wasn't the song I wanted.

But it's all good as I love it.

2nd song was the one I was thinking of...

Just being loose and grooving to the music.

While looping, typing and thinking out loud here.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever...

The song I was thinking of...

.... but hey both work perfectly.

Not a forecast................

.............just my musical mood today!