Hurricane Harbor: Yellow Blimp 20% - Not SOOO Quiet Anymore. ATL Not Overly Friendly But Models Perking Up. Ensemble Models Easily Excitable

From Spaghetti Models.

Top 2 day. Bottom 7 day.

Yellow 20% in the 7 Day.

First off I want to remind you it's a large area, more like a blimp or submarine than a circle. That means they are unsure where it could form and again it's not a Cone it's a "zone" where a tropical cyclone might develop. When you look at the image below, note this other NOAA site colors these tropical waves with low, but consistent possibilities.

Also on Spaghetti Models if you scroll down.

24 Hour on left. 48 Hour on right.

2 Waves in the Tropical Atlantic.

In GOM a growing swath of purple.

What this means is that some models, especially ensemble models take a wave westbound into the Islands or near the Islands close enough that they have raised the level attention to this area should a tropical cyclone form and necessitate putting up some sort of warnings for the Islands within the 7 day should one of these areas develop.

This is not a lock in on "OH MY GOSH WE ARE GONNA HAVE BIG HURRICANE THERE" as much as a "heads up something could form in the next 7 days, for now just low chances if and until models change" and that's it. But it is exciting to go online and see yellow on the NHC map after days of an empty map late in August.

As I said yesterday, remember the tropics usually come alive in September. Do they come alive with innuendo and clickbait or do they really, really come alive? Most meteorologists currently are being very conservative and reminding people the overall look for the Atlantic is not overly supportive for development. I'll agree with that and remind you that on any given day on the last days of August the tropics can surprise us and come alive quickly.

Speaking of quickly, this normally happens when there is a low attached to a healthy looking tropical wave exiting Africa. Til recently they have had lots of color, a hint of spin but nothing really there. The new wave coming off has excited many as it does have a small low pressure attached to it and it's large and large waves are harder to lose color once they move from land into the water. And we are moving into September where CLIMO tends to kick in...

Earthnull below.

Definitely ups the ante.

That's it. I'll talk models tomorrow. There isn't much to say regarding the yellow area featured on the NHC main page. Too many questions and the answers are mostly the regular answers.

Where does it develop? Does it develops?

When does it develop? Sooner rather than later... more a recurve possibly.

Later vs sooner.... into the islands.

How strong would it be? Stronger could recurve faster or move up towards Bahamas.

(East Coast and Florida pays attention)

Weaker would be westbound and maybe a player later. (Florida and GOM pays attention)

For extra credit........there's this little area of convection near Florida. I checked Earthnull on every filter trust me. Just after all that talk on Andrew ... I go online pull up one of my favorite satellite views and go "huh??" and hey maybe it's trying to tell us something or it's just a funny mind trick.