Sept 4th. 3 Yellow Xs Coastal Low off East Coast. Discussion on CSU Recent Report. Trying to Reason with 2024 Hurricane. Lots Not Listed I Mention. And, Lackluster Waves Lacking Low Pressure Leaving Africa.

Coastal low off Carolinas 

Tropical Wave with Color in MDR

lil bit of color in Carib Wave...

Rain in GOM anchored there.

Below we see our 3 areas NHC watching.

3 Amigos wearing yellow 

Just yellow, not a lot of rain there.

Far Pacific has all the tropical juice...

...we just got frontal juice.

Literally lined up in a row, look at that!

Only really good Low signature is ignored.

See that bright orange red circle below!

That's the LOW I've talked on ....

...and it did form.

Hey models nailed that one.

But not tropical....

Below note the 5 Day Maps

5 day NOAA maps.

September 10th has a Low in BOC.

But my point is the FRONT hangs and hovers.

I'm in that part of the world where a cold front came through and is delivering beautiful, cool Fall air in Raleigh.  Down below where the front stalled out it's delivering rain and messy beach days. Using this screenshot from Mike's Weather Page Morning Brew. I went online to see what he was saying and he was talking about just what I was thinking on talking on... He's also talking on 1969 mustangs but hey who doesn't?

I want to be clear here, there is rain and there is convection but it's not of the tropical kind in the Atlantic Basin and even there's some rain over Saharan Desert. September is there big month for rain, but not the type of rain 2024 delivered. The tropical waves rained themselves out over a desert. All kinds of rain but not in the normal places. 2024 not normal, we knew that when Beryl exploded and made landfall on July 1st in Grenada area. 

Regarding the report from CSU released yesterday. I said I was going to link to it in a special post, but I did not as it did not deliver the discussion that many thought it would. It's a good report to read, but nothing we don't already know. No smoking gun, no real discussion that hasn't been said online already. I expected more. To me it was too academic and just reporting what we already know. It's easy to say the ITCZ and the waves aren't at the right latitude, waves coming off too high, etc. 

While that is true, I've seen MANY years when waves came off consistently high and after moving West for a day or two they dipped WSW (which as a child I always thought was counterintuitive before I even knew what that word meant) and then they traveled West at the normal latitude. So while it IS true we have had high bouncing waves it's more where they have gone after they went off and sometimes bounced in the wrong direction.

1. They fizzle fast, and oh the water is not as hot as it once was when early forecasts were written.

2. A few delivered rain to Morocco which is usually a dry desert without rain.

3. They came off weak, "meh" waves with no real heart, no real circulation attached*

4. We've seen waves come off so strong and high they were named and took off as Fish Storms fast.

*you need low pressure attached to really have a totally viable tropical wave. 

Bottom Line is that it's not all about HOT WATER in the MDR in April and May. What happens in May does not always correlate with what will happen in July and August. This is not the first seasonal forecast bust that was based on HOT WATER IN MDR tho...not as bad ....and no the Hurricane Season isn't over yet. 

Strong SAL can be added in.... the SAL is STILL on the maps.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024_0903_seasondiscussion.pdf Link to the report is here and it gives some data many have not seen and good graphics, but we have discussed this and more on X and other sites online in various groups. 

Perhaps one problem is how we forecast and what parameters we use and people run off with model runs they like in the way some people go to Vegas and marry someone they have known for 2 days and on very rare occasions it works out, but usually not. Yes I do love watching models, but I always take them with lots of sea salt and they are for entertainment purposes if there is no confirmed circulation. 

Again this takes us back to the fact that while the waves were weak and sometimes (but not always) misplaced and shear is there and there are issues with the Canary Current (always there, sometimes weaker sometimes stronger) but the truth is the waves have lacked oompfh and very few "wow" waves and to be honest Beryl was a wave that came off with lots of "WOW" and "check that out" and as I said a kick ass wave. Since Beryl we have been mostly bereft of WOW waves with any sense of spin as they depart Africa. This whole season has felt like one very long, run on sentence ...usually ending with "wait 10 days" and then............"

Note some of the waves are at the right latitude.

Some waves are lower.

And...............still no rotation.

Rotation & Tstorms needed for Circulation.

(see greens in the purple desert)

There are low waves and high waves.

Still nothing spins ....

If they don't spin coming off, it's hard to find spin in a dry ocean that often has shear and is feeling all uncomfortable with the Canary Current being weird up above and Hot water in the South Atlantic down below. This is not your Momma's typical Hurricane Season. 

So you can add all the plus and minus parts of the equation, but regarding the African Wave Train.... it's meh and raining in all the wrong places and waves formed and came off Africa with very little spin. And, the SAL came on late and stayed late. SAL is still very there. Stronger SAL then usual traveling on a stronger ride than usual. One can say the weak meh westbound waves juiced it up but again truth is they really they had very little juice to begin with so .... still a tropical mystery.

Earth Science is all about meteorology, geology and oceanography. They can be studied independently, however they are all linked together in tangible ways. If you have studied them as much as I have you know that and a strong knowledge of geography helps understand them better and how they are all related. When I say studied them I mean I studied them in college for my degree in International Relations, as all three impact a nation's policies both domestic and foreign. Many wars have been fought since time began as one country lacking good resources went off to conquer another country for their resources. The first time I ever heard of El Nino was a long, deep discussion that went on most of the semester on an Internatioal Law case that went on forever about tuna fleets and one country suing another in International Court...because the strong El Nino forced fistherman to go out past where they usually fish and that was all about El Nino, but had nothing to do with hurricane forecasts.

Ocean Currents  La Nina, El Nino and various currents that act up at times unexpected.

Volcanoes spewing dust deep into the atmosphere and moisture mixed in from the steam.

Fires in South America and Canada that color the Saharan Dust imagery in odd places, fires in Canada and South America have been a huge facator on many levels, why not tropical meteorology?

These are just a few of the topics that need to be researched over time, discussed and written about in peer review articles and again over time we may have an answer more than "waves coming off too high" and poor model forecasts for June, July and August. La Nina didn't show up as fast as many thought, we study the sea surface temperatures on that one and well currents are part of the study of the sea. 

I remember once in a personal conversation with Dr. William Gray listening to how he felt ocean currents were an area not looked at enough when discussing atmospheric science and various types of forecasts on where we were going on a global scale. What's down beneath the sea and how that could impact things high up in the atmosphere. 

Not going to rant on Phil's forecast his CSU team put out. It's a forecast, meaning not looking back but trying to predict the future. Sometimes I feel as if I have watched Phil grow up from a young kid who always looked young to an older man who still looks young, but isn't and I have great respect and admiration for the academic research put into the CSU reports. And, they are a gift ... a tribute to Dr Gray who I seriously adored meeting him at conferences and listening to him talk online. Gotta tell you, listening to him talk in person directly to me and listening like a fly on the wall to him talk to others was always golden. 

So we can have a good discussion on what went wrong this year and why did Beryl form in June and make landfall as a Cat 5 in July on an island that rarely feels the brunt of a hurricane.

This season is literally the definiton of the word "anomaly" unless of course the next few seasons are similar but in real time we don't know anything but what is really happening. Defintion from Google below:

The noun anomaly comes from the Greek word anomolia, meaning "uneven” or “irregular.” When something is unusual compared to similar things around it, it's the anomaly.

So areas to watch in the tropics as of today:

Close in ... GOM... off of Florida... Bahamas.

Deep Caribbean over time should produce a hurricane we will wish it didn't.

Areas to watch but lower your expectations.

MDR and East Atlantic. Watch, but have no expectations. One should develop. Never say "should" a friend says but hey they aren't here and not sure they are reading so ...one should develop!

In the Caribbean the wave is moving into ...

...an area with less land interaction.

A little pink on Mimic.

As it moves West........

....it has a chance.

Again I said days ago... weeks ago?

When the wave gets closer to Cuba/Yucatan

It has a chance.

Sometime back in August when this first began.

I said that before people online did.

I drew a box.

Image from days ago, close to a week now.

Below.....

This was I believe the box.

With emphasis on South of Cuba...

...or near Cuba and Yucatan shown in the right.

Today's NHC yellow area.

Lastly...............we have watched waves that models liked and yet didn't do much, but models kept spewing out forecasts for imminent formation and actually we saw one fall apart, come back, keep moving West with new forecasts and great amounts of rain over Texas that many online said would never verify and that wave was Harvey. And, the unbelievable forecasts for rain (as many online described them) were not only verified but surpassed.  

Harvey's Track!

1. I am NOT saying this wave is like Harvey, just pointing out that it's a long traveler and taking a similar path in life. Moved along with models offering formation suggestions and it intensified close in (as we've seen this year a few times) and yet people forget it didn't look promising for most of it's life! Models liked it, most online hated it and waited for it to totally collapse and go away.

2. Texas has had too much rain and already has had severe flooding from the No Name GOM system that's actually acting like a GOM Gyre (remember I said this first) and last thing it needs is some wave that follows Beryl's path late in life and I seriously hope and pray that this does not play out even as a weak system. Maybe it'll just shuffle off towards Central America or pull North in the GOM. Time will tell better than most models.

Stay tuned.

We are not done with the Season.

We will figure out the reasons.

Enjoying the change of the seasons.

When the seasons change....

...usually hurricane season changes.

We are in that part of the season.

A season to remember......

Second part...near the peak.

Maybe the yeast was bad?

Who knows.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Thanks for reading along.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.