Sept 3 - 3 Areas NHC is Watching. Waiting for Report From CSU Soon Today on 2024 Hurricane Season ... Search for Answers on the Not So Hyperactive Hurricane Season Expected. Will Post a Blog Later On That...Stay Tuned. Trust Me...It's Not Over, It's Just Not What We Expected! s

Little overachiever  in MDR got a yellow circle

Wave behind it has one too but it's low...very.

Wave in E Carib has one out of loyalty?

Cold front draped off East Coast.

A low, nontropical? may form.

Because NATL favorable ...

No words, other than

OMG the front.

Love it!

Windows open for a few hours here!

Fresh air, blue skies.

Let's look at the Tropics.

3 yellow Xs for September 3rd!

Look Fall Color!!!

From @tropicaltidbits on X

to @tropicalupdate on X 

Love Mike's site.

Because to me it's my collage of the day.

Great links hidden there....

...as many just hit the images.

Let's look at the middle grid.

Color from the Northern extension of the wave.

Over DR currently or near there.

officially below it but going with weather/color

GOM still has rain

rain = low pressures

Off coast of Carolinas....

...low will try and form.

You can see the purple off the SE coast.

The wave train... 

....GOM

So honestly there is nothing much to say, except the beat goes on and on and on. Three areas to watch and I find myself wishing for an Invest just to have some spaghetti models. And, yet the models aren't showing much other than a low that may form in Atlantic going North to favorable waters. 

It is what it is until it's not and something changes. Seasons are changing and that usually ups ante ....

1. Long range forecasts are iffy at best, sometimes spot on and other times off the mark. It's a developing science as is understanding when Rapid Intensification happens. In the past they were most often off when an unexpected El Nino came on fast or a La Nina expected to be here but Hurricane Season didn't show on time.

2. Fronts are a change, eventually that change ripples into other areas. Fronts up the ante in the tropics.

3. I've said ALL year we are running 3 weeks to a month ahead of schedule. The crazy heat we usually get in August in Raleigh showed up in late June into early July. We had a cold front a week or so back that was outright chilly, more like September than August. Beryl showed up way too early. SAL is the only thing that showed up late and refuses to leave. This front and the little bit of color we are beginning to see on leaves is more like late September into October than first week of September.

4. Regarding the hype. Bugs me when I hear Mets make fun that "medialogists" are hyping Hurricane Season, when in fact every local meteorologist I know in different markets talked about the forecasts for a busy season so as to get people prepared for a busy hurricane season. It's not just the few online who "do weather" and outrageously hype any chance of weather, it's everyone professional or otherwise who have talked on this being a very busy hurricane season based on modeling and long range forecasts that are not currently verifying. Colorado State is putting out a special update with info today trying to explain this strange hurricane season where African Waves travel to the desert in Morroco and La Nina looked to be setting up, yet not when we thought it would but maybe in the South Atlantic adding a new possible term to our already large dictionary of climate lingo = Atlantic La Nina. Some blame it on the volcano that messed up last year's season and the smaller version recently that continued that possible trending reason. 

Who knows? We will know looking back when all is said and done and over.

I think this is going to be an Average Season, what eluded us in the early season will show up in the later part of the season. And, gotta tell you those systems that form in October in the W Carib and catch a ride on a frontal boundary ripping across some beach on the GOM or Florida up along the East Coast like Wilma can be mean and memorable. And, late October trends may show up soon as we are moving through September and we are running ahead of schedule this year. Stay tuned..

5. As I said above, our attention turns to the SW Carib or just the Carib in general. It turns to closer in off the coast of Florida or Puerto Rico and the Gulf of Mexico close to the Yucatan where lows can spin up and make trouble further up the line (like Michael) especially if they chase a front and a front dies out and retrogrades and the High expands and well there are 50 ways to leave a lover and 50 ways to find tropical action in the Atlantic Basin especially as we move into September. 

Not over til it's over. Trust me it's not over. It's just not what we thought it would be. Kind of like life.

I'll update later today, probably with discussion on the update people are waiting for today. There has been very good discussion in general on the factors and for many of us this discussion and research ongoing in real time is as valuable to us as all the other parts of studying Hurricanes and Hurricane Season. For me the best storms to chase are in Fall off the Carolinas coast when Hurricane Season collides with OBX Lows when fronts and named storms come close before rushing out to sea.

Thanks for reading along. 

Wish I had more concrete to tell you other than it's not over til it's over and it's not over.

Last year was the most boring parade of often mediocre systems that turned before the Islands (luckily) but then traced the previous storm's tracks over and over til many of us felt dizzy. And, the NATL was a popular spot also.  The i storm changed everything. Will see how 2024 ends when it's over. It's not over.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.........

BobbiStorm

Not all is as it seems... remember that

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.