Moral of 2024 Hurricane Season IS...........Don't Coun't Your Hurricanes Until They Form...... 2 Invests to Watch. The Wave Now at 40% Orange.

2 PM above
NHC raises ante to orange 40%

As I mentioned below, as the tropical wave we have been watching gets into the BOC close to where Invest 90L is forecast to cruise around in circles, it's possible our tropical wave it a stronger chance to develop. I have jokingly said on Twitter the could hook up together, and that may indeed happen as it has a stronger chance now for development. Not a big chance, but a chance. As I said below, before the 2 PM posted, you have Invest 90L that's more like a Gulf of Mexico Gyre that's trying desperately to spin into something. It needs a center, a spark, a there that's really there. Often an area like this comes to life when a tropical wave moves into that area and gives it a new chance on life feeding off the wave to help generate spin and development. We will see. But the wave is orange now. The rest of the blog is still the same as it was written less than an hour ago. But I wanted to wait to see what the NHC would do at 2 PM before posting and........ they broke out the orange crayon so there we go. Here's the IR loop from Tropical Tidbits for the Gulf of Mexico so you can watch up close.

 Compare and Contrast.
with 8 AM below.

Unless you love the color Yellow...

... not much to write home about.

1:30 PM

Invest 90L in the Gulf of Mexico has some model support for a weak tropical storm, if it develops. Becoming a semi-permanent feature there. In the Atlantic off the East Coast is Invest 99L that has some model support to attain Tropical Storm force winds as a ?? Hybrid Storm?? perhaps. 

Models for 90L as seen above show it keeps looping around in the Gulf of Mexico kind of like some offshore betting cruises that used to be popular in South Florida. If you know you know. It could get a name, it's possible but wouldn't bet on my much. And, a name is not given...in this case... a maybe.

Models for Invest 99L are in close agreement, we know where it's going and it's forecast to be TS strength IF it forms, but not sure what the NHC will decide as so far they follow it, made it an Invest but keeping it at lemon yellow chances.

Some models ....should something..........some way down the tropical road in the Atlantic, but most lose it over time. One forms something and slings it up into the middle of the Atlantic while others see nothing. I'm just not going to speculate on models currently in the MDR or the East Atlantic until I see something change in the pattern there and or if any models actually verify. 

From left to right you can see the dark colors in the Gulf of Mexico. Worth remembering the old wave we followed across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean is also now in that general region. While it never formed, it's possible at some point in the juicy environment of the Gulf of Mexico where Invest 90L is that it could do some odd strange things and we could see formation of a Tropical Depression or Storm over time.  Sometimes tropical waves just stay tropical waves and sometimes coastal pop up systems form when the long tracked tropical wave didn't pan out.

In the North Atlantic you can see where things are going there, if something is gonna spin it'll do it up there I'm betting. MDR is just bizarre in too many ways to list and I have my daughter in town this weekend so giving her time and ignoring the uncooperative MDR. Over Africa it's so bizarre I can't, I just can't even ... try and explain what goes on there. Suffice it to say, nothing is forming tho there's always a new wave and at least one model that thinks maybe there's a chance....

Moral of 2024 Hurricane Season is ... Don't Count Your Hurricanes Until They Form!! From here on out we will take it one day at a time!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Hey in your dreams you can dream whatever you want....

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

Oldie but goldie...