Tropical Update ... 2 Storms Could Definitely Form in September... Time Will Tell. GOM Spaghetti Models Looking Stronger. Atlantic Wave... Trying to Like It But NOT Falling In Love Yet. Can Atlantic Basin Really Get It's Act Together in 2nd Half of September? Maybe.... Jury Out.

 

1 AM

Can't fall asleep.

Daughter in town....

... went out on the town

Watching models and loops.

It seems logical....

...to say we will have a designated system soon.

Doubt I'll stay up for the 2 AM

Definitely the best signature in BOC for something to finally happen in the GOM. The GOM has wanted spin so badly, yet you really need a "spark" to get spin going. Yes, sometimes low pressures drop and a center can form, but in the strong flow of what was going on... hard to get spin. A tropical wave moving into the region and/or a front dropping down are usually the best ways to get spin going fast. And, this is what we see now in the area with models crisscrossing the coast for a system that could make landfall within the 7 day period. Obviously as the frontal boundary across the SE calls to the developing low, it's a go for lift off sort of set up. And yet, currently still,  pinning down the exact location of landfall is not so easy. Much can and may happen between here and there. Not the GOM is at 60% in the 2 day, so if this does come together sooner rather than later it could happen in the next 36 to 48 hours.

In the Atlantic we see some spinners possible. Strong swimmers and strong spinner possibilities. All I will say tonight, while trying to relax before going to sleep and out again tomorrow ....is .... we have a chance. Smiling, hey sometimes that says a lot.

The real fly in the ointment tonight is....

...there are 2 competing areas.

in the end only one will win out...

Stay tuned

Spaghetti models.
1 hooks West.
The rest bend towards Louisiana.
If this happens, rain in the Deep South as well.
We talk on landfall but inland impacts also.

Shear near entrance to the Caribbean is rare in Sept.

And, yet there is is..

Further West, maybe ... 

I'm just not ready to fall in love again.... 

... maybe tomorrow.

Later this week... 

Nice signature. 

Maybe flirt a bit with liking it.

We will see.

It's been a wild then strange trip this Hurricane Season. Too many mixed signals, too many anomalies and it's been too hard to get something going that lasts. As we glide deeper into September, more color will show up on the NHC main page and more leaves will turn colors at higher elevations and I do think we will have named storms. I can't promise we go far and deep into the name list, but think Francine and Gordon are out there this September.

Stay tuned. 

Sweet tropical dreams.........

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

I've always been a sucker for Nat King Cole... enjoy the September Song...