Hurricane Harbor: 2 PM 60 MPH Stronger Tropical Storm Francine. IF IN CONE PREPARE for NHC Forecast Hurricane Francine. A Look Around the Atlantic!

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE

NHC finds Francine stronger.

As expected... on her way to Cane.

This is what you call "blooming"

Blossoming...

Moisture feed goes ENE towards FL

Francine moving NNW at 5 MPH.

Will begin a turn later on.

For now it's consolidating.

Doing what it has to do.

Let's look around the Atlantic Basin.

There's Francine

(remember part of her was a dud wave)

Orange X shows higher chances.

...but one behind it has more excitement.

60/60 orange wave

30/70 red wave

There's another wave over Africa but...

...let's stick with these.

Invest 92L below.

Lead orange wave.

I know it's counterintuitive...

...is what it is this minute.

Models mostly...show it curving out to sea.

I will say the wave train looks better today.

More curvaeous

Waves in the ocean, cresting...

Not a flat... ocean.

Surfers totally understand this ;)

Long range model.

They all turn out to sea.

And yet...........

...there's a huge storm off of Carolinas.

GFS NEXT Saturday.

Canadian shows it as well but weaker.

I said long range.

Not showing what happens Monday after.

Use your imagination ...

Rides up coast towards BIG CITIES...

ICON shows a system off FL...

...sits and tries to form.

September 17th

The main point here is that while the MDR waves do get chances to get names or some sort of designation, but currently they look to swim off out to sea where they could wander about with some energy. But, there are no current scenarios where they make a bust WNW and go up and over the Islands. But when you have that many waves in September they are definitely worth remembering they are there and it is September Remember.

Do we always remember September?

For Hurricane Reason?

Other reasons?

Summer ends, kids go off to school.

Leaves turn and begin to fall.

September has so many things to remember.

I'm probably digressing LOL. Sorry in a mood today.

As for Miss Francine she is set to be a Hurricane. How mean will she be is the real question??

A hurricane down there in that region can do a whole lotta damage, destruction and sadly death.

Can Francine get stronger than Beryl?

Beryl on landfall trying to intensify?

We will see.

Many think she will pull East move.

My question is when?

On landfall or after landfall?

I'm a little unsure on end game.

I don't have any real deep reasons to say this, just it would be need to be really strong and feel the urge to go ...get pulled further to the North up the Mississippi River Valley. If she peaks too fast she could bend a bit more to the right and her weather will lean more towards Mississippi and Tennessee and I do mean WEATHER not the actual remnant center far to the left closer to the forecast track. We see this happen sometimes and waiting to not worry on that and just believe everything goes as planned. Early in the game, time will tell. Name of the "game" now is "PREPARE" if Francine is headed to your town!

Lots to do ... lots to think on.

As for the Wave Train. I do think one of those waves will go under the radar and pop up closer to let's say Florida and maybe that helps create this "born near Florida" system or just travels somewhere, wherever the weather patterns would take it when that happens.

Remember and don't fool yourself. Francine didn't just "POP UP" she's one part "the wave" we followed across the basin that didn't do anything until it met up with the forever yellow circle over the Gulf of Mexico that wanted so badly to spin, and finally found a way to spin and is now Francine!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.

LOL enjoy the song.

Had a friend who used to love to sing this song.

Why not sure, but she did...

We weren't good singers....

....better dancers

But we'd do routines to Oldie Goldies..

Being silly....

...so sticking with old songs.

Love 80s songs.

This was filmed at my friend's father's carnival...

... LA Days :)

As for the wave train

...may not be the one we wanted.

But one may catch our attention.

(I liked Grease 2...there's a song, bugging me)

But that's just me

ps there's this wave no one watching

Except me?

Definitely a weather maker

11 AM above

5 AM below.

As recon data comes in ....

...cone will shift around often to small degrees.

Don't follow the center line and expect changes.

Intensity and possibly direction.

5 AM Cone.

NOW we have TS Francine.

Salient parts of NHC Discussion shown with Selfie of Francine...

"guidance this cycle has shifted a little Eastward and faster" (both impt)

"shows Francine moving ashore of Louisiana sometime on Wednesday Evening"

"assuming the cyclone's veritical structure becomes aligned......" (always impt)

"significang intensification" is on the table.

Once again we would have a hurricane making landfall at night, unless something changes and often things change. Especially as Francine is still in formation stage. The question remains therefore, how vertically stacked will she be tomorrow? There's also a question of the influences of steering currents to the S and N of Francine ... sometimes the same feature can feed RI into a Major Hurricane and other times the exact same feature can keep Francine as a borderline Cat 2 trying to intensify. It's too soon to be sure, but because the Gulf of Mexico creates the old "bull in the china shop" set up ... it's important to take watches and warnings seriously from the NHC.

As the sun comes up... looked like a TS

What do I think?

This has a flash flood threat.

Topography of GOM shelf...

..in some areas leads to high storm surge.

Fast and furious ... it can't be ignored.

And winds...oh my goodness...

This could be one messy wind storm.

As a PTC it has 50 MPH Winds!

It's a solid ball currently of trouble.

I'll update at 2 PM with any upgrades in intensity or information. I think it needs to be taken seriously. In years such as this one we can easily see one or two storms over produce so to speak. And, hate to say it but the pattern in the Gulf of Mexico is ripe for more landfalls later this season.

Speaking of the rest of the season.... at 2 PM they will update the graphics so I'll go more into that than now.