Hurricane Harbor: Updated 5 PM. PTC6 in GOM. All Eyes on Texas & Louisiana Currently ...While PTC6 Takes It's Time Consolidating ...

PTC6 5 PM

My Bottom Line here is this...

The center hasn't formed and until it does we are guesstimating the position of the system. Guidance shifted a little bit East and a Tropical Storm should form tomorrow, Monday September 9th! Really so many variables here, know it's there and the PTC Cone should give those in it's path an idea of where it may make landfall and where it will go after landfall. Note it could go deeper inland than most would think normally. Should be Francine tomorrow, but again never count your storms until they form.

If you are in the Cone or near the Cone make sure you aren't missing anything from your hurricane supplies and figure out what you will do. Intensity currently is on the low side hurricane wise, but again the center has not formed and we will know more once it does.

Good job NHC!

Lots of places in Wind Probs.

Gulfport has low wind probs also.

Models in good agreement.

Timing and strength matters.

Check out remnants of 90L..

...staring down at 91L.

When they come together....

...we have a named storm.

Francine next name up.

Please keep reading as everything I said earlier is true and verifying, as I said if they did not find a center they would upgrade to PTC later today and they did...and here we are.. follow me in real time on X @bobbistorm Wind probabilities above, if you have 3 lines there...take it seriously as one way or the other you should deal with some sort of impacts from this developing system.

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90/80 GOM 91L
60/40 ATL orange X 92L

Strongest signal we've had....

...for named storms in a long while.

I would say 91L in the GOM is a done deal to get a name. I would add it may get a PTC Cone if not a desingnation really soon, recon on the way later today. If they find a center, we have a named system. Models are in good agreement overall, showing Mike's grid as Mike loves making grids and he does them well. Up on his Spaghetti Models Main Page.

Currently, models show a hurricane is possible and some would not rule out Cat 2 though depending on how close it travels to the coast and how fast it moves, may make that critical difference in intensity. Trying to believe that models this week will do way better than they had done previously, keep that in mind. Consolidation for a system forming from different strong ingredients is often a difficult Gumbo to make as one seasoning can overpower the rest or conflict too much whereas a good Gumbo blends perfectly! If you know Gumbo, you know...

Adding another graphic.

Hurricane Tracker App

They usually post this....

...a bit before NHC puts up a Cone.

They are historically excellent I'll add.

Francine next name up!

Today is a day of waiting. Waiting on Recon... Waiting on football games to begin....Waiting on daughter leaving and enjoying some time with her before we drop her at the airport. Waiting on a name to be given and waiting on the hurricane season to wake up from it's Rip Van Winkle Summer Nap. Waiting on the next cold front. Enjoying, savoring Fall while waiting on Winter.

We spend so much time waiting for things to happen and some things we have little control over, one of them being weather. I'll add our favorite teams as we are merely fans and followers, following along while hoping they will go the distance or at least have a winning season. I follow my MyAmi Dolphins (miami kid joke) and the Carolina Panthers. Lots of waiting .

Waiting to talk on this one....

...that may be the real deal!

Wait for tomorrow....

..... more on this one tomorrow!!

Big E on X shared this ...this morning.

Waiting on Dolphin game ....

Very Miami.

Tropical

Go Fins?

Swear I am going to pick a 3rd team to root for this year as Fins and Panthers can be real heartbreakers LOL. Love Football. And, when football is really happening, hurricane season tends to ramp up as September provides named storms even in weak hurricane seasons.

I'll update later today when and if the NHC upgrades an Invest to another designation, after Recon goes in and sends back the data, the facts.... and then we will know for sure rather than just waiting and watching.

Last night, we went out for Ice Cream to a local neighborhood place where kids and families hang out like a scene in an old time movie on small town life in the South. I looked over at my husband and realized he had one of my old hurricane tee shirts on and trust me I have a whole lotta of hurricane tee shirts. This literally is and was my favorite "map" in ways as it shows what I always call the Hurricane Coastline. Again, inland impacts are NEVER to be forgotten, but we do track the eye towards landfall. We track, we watch, we chase and we commuicate conditions the dangers to the general public. I have special NHC tee shirts from AOML and from friends online and some really old ones such as this one. I took it as a sign we would have an "eye" again to "track" and chase and communicate here in the blog.

I also have made "peace" so to speak with this hurricane season (resisted the urge to use a curse word lol) as the truth is it's more interesting in ways to study academically than many that just popped out named storms with wavering intensity the way a teen pops a zit that just showed up on their face!

I was never in love with the predictions made, but in this case everyone offering predictions piled on to the scenario of nonstop storms and dangers that go way back the Hurricane Name List for 2024. We have been burned before by "hot water in the MDR" and yet screaming that into the wind could cause a scene online. And, IF all the powers that be (including NOAA) belive it's a busy season, it's part of my "job" here to warn the general public what may be coming.

I've seen this years ago and I'm doing it again. No 2 hurricanes seasons are exactly the same. No 2 El Ninos or La Ninas are exactly the same. They are like Cabbage Patch Dolls, similar in their overall size and shape (they aren't Barbie and Ken) and yet each has their own different style. Same gene pool, but diverse, different and definitely not identical. Always was a Barbie Girl, but Cabbage Patch had their day in the sun. Barbie was always ready to ride... to run to the beach or dress up for a party ;)

Does Francine form in the GOM and do it's own version of Beryl's 2nd Act? Waiting....

Will update later. Gonna make Brunch.... will find out soon.