Special Advisory Hurricane Francine 85MPH Winds ...........

 

* * * 

Track keeps moving East some...

See the pinks inside the white ball.

Eye wall trying to form... not yet.

On track... track shifted a dropo East.

Will see at 11 PM what they do.

New Orleans in Cone.

NOTE BLACK SHADED AREA AT TOP

"Hazardous conditions can occur outside" 

Cone is for the "path" "track"

See colorful watches and warnings.

NHC not doodling....

..they are showing u watches/warnings.

From Tex/Mex border to Alabama.

Various watches and warnings.

Follow NHC and NWS in your local area.

The Salient or as I used to type $alient parts of the NHC Discussion deal with dry air hindering her development and how new data shows she is moving faster (8 MPH) and as she moves away from the interaction of land (Mexico) and dry air she should steadily intensify as she moves towards landfall tomorrow. Also modeling has shifted a bit East and the Cone has been moved a bit to the East now which you'll see better in the interactive cone below.

Parts of warnings up for Mississippi

Again as lay of the land there is one region.

For anyone that doesn't have a minor in Geography...

1 region as Louisiana goes out far to East.

Also when looking at this online...

...don't be distracted by the blob.

Blob to the N (original 90L to me)

Francine to S (91L)

We are tracking Francine.

See below.

Speaking of Invests.

92L models are changing.

Maybe NOT a Fish Storm??

Will deal with this another time.

But a reminder....

This is a video I made earlier.

It's a cut to the chase.

And a reminder not to look at the blob.

I'll update at 5 PM.

Unless something "odd" happens.

Being 2024 ... who knows.

Today is a "named storm day" and I'm taking the day off to watch coverage online a little and clean up the house some and figure what to make for dinner, which may be Jamalaya as we had hot dogs & baked beans with bourbon, molasses and all sorts of stuff in the baked beans. 

Please keep reading the blog as it was written at 10:30 and all still relevant. Old saying, satisfaction delayed and that is what is going on though Francine on time more or less and NHC does a bang up job with their forecast these days especially and any possible curveballs will be dealt with in real time online, at NHC and your local NWS. 

Have to tell you I LOVE this part of the country and when I say love it in some sort of gut wrenching feeling the first time I was there as if I lived there in a previous lifetime IF you believe in that sort of stuff.  Or if you believe in genetic memory as my Grandma lived in New Orleans for quite a while when young and my family had tobacco farms in Quincy Florida so all along I-10 there there are distant relatives that show up on Ancestry and some I actually know. Love the names of places "Terrabone" "Cameron Parish" "Vermillion Bay" "Iberia" and have this weird fascination with St. Mary Parish because of a long ago dream. Love Low Country, always have. Love Marsh, yet not as much swamps. Definitely not into Swamp Chasing as many Chasers call chases in this neck of the woods. Distantly related to old Creole families originally from France who made New Orleans their homes but had farms not so faraway from Francine's path. My Southern Belle grandma liked to call them Plantations... tho not all farms in the South were big plantations, when they moved to Tampa my Grandma's mother had a pony and a small farm  in her backyard in Old Tampa! It's like driving through the South and seeing Ionic columns in front of a small Fast Food Market or small bank.  Southerners are as New Age as our beliefs and style, yet old school when it comes to food, music and family legends. New Orleans has a whole lotta legends and my Grandma Mary was not allowed to go to Mardi Gras as things got wild "back then" and she was afraid of the voodoo queen lol. Can't make this stuff up... if I was Grandma I'd take out my Ouija Board and ask it "where is Francine going" but luckily today we have the NHC!!! YAY!!

While Ouija Boards were fun with Grandma...

...NHC is a whole lot more accurate!!

Here's the song....

....keep reading tho!!!

Keep..........

.........Reading!

10 AM Discussion Below.

Current Cone at 10 AM

Still 65 MPH 

Moving around 5 MPH N

(is that forecast speed or actual?)

Barely moving.

Forecast to start moving SOON.

IF that does not verify.

We need to rethink the situation.

I have issues with Francine.

I always have, been bugging me.

Being honest.

Note models beginning to bend right.

After landfall.

A look at this morning's models.

Still shows it going UP deep ...

Remember NHC tracks the "center"

Even a remnant center.

I have had problems with this forecast.

Models have been horrible this year.

To me it would be logical there's a bend East.

Especially as this is not a long duration Major Cane.

Sysetm to the N to grab it there...

...but not soooo strong.

And as always it's all about TIMING

For now Francine is temporarily stuck...

..moving slowly if at all.

But forecast to move fast ...

..and intensify.

Wicked sistuation if verifies. Tricky. Sneaky.

Watching in real time.

This is the center.

Do not be confused with convection to NE

Center is actually flaring up.

Made this screenshot today.

Mike on his Morning Brew.

Note how much convection is over Texas

Tex/Mex

So the story ending is not altered totally, but it is delayed. Tex/Mex getting pounded with rain from the West flank of Tropical Storm Francine and having part of her over a landmass or that near doesn't help her intensify. She needs to start moving further North up into GOM where she can find her groove. Add in the BLOB to the NNE of her needs to move away and let Francine breathe.

As always 2024 delivers 2 convective areas.

We saw this before earlier in the season.

Down low is Francine.

Up above is her huge shadow blob.

She came together from 2 parts.

She has not lost the other part.

This is how it'll play out.

Bottom Line....

Follow all info from NHC and your local NWS if you live in the region associated with Francine and or her stalker fan that refuses to leave and will also dump copious amounts of rain across the landfall are way before landfall. That's always a problem because it makes preparing for the forecast hurricane or evacuating from one harder if you wait too long. 

Trust the NHC and your local NWS and proceed accordingly. 

Don't listen to Aunt Martha who has a medium telling her the forecast.

Don't listen to the guy on YouTube promising you a Cat 4 Hurricane at landfall ...always.

Listen to the NHC and NWS and IF anything changes, they will change in real time.

I'll add song in after 11 AM Discussion is added.... stay tuned......