Carolina Storm. Does It Get a Name? Helene Is That You? Or Do We Call with the "IT" Storm? And, Is ISAAC Out There IF This is Helene? Model Discussion. Is Helene a Carolina Girl or Florida Girl?

 First off....
...from SpaghettiModels

Let's start at the very beginning.

NHC won't bust out the red crayon?

50% orange or bust it seems.

Rumor Recon will take a look...

Let's talk about Earthnull, that shows a closed center offshore and TWC crew is waiting at Wrightsville Beach.  As you can see all the congruent lines show a strong pressure gradient that this storm with or without an upgrade to Helene will deliver a punch to the Carolina Beaches (more homes could fall into the ocean up by OBX) and anyone taking a walk on the beach will get the full windblown effect. This piles, pounds waves onto the Carolina Beaches and depending on timing if it stays over the warm water of the Gulfstream it could intensify into a Tropical Storm (or TD) or just become another memorable No Name storm for an area that was recently impacted by Tropical Storm Debby. 

If it didn't have the closed low look I'd totally understand the NHC wanting to look away. Hey I get it, I look away all the time as I refuse to look at African Waves. But we have a forecast for 30 MPH winds in Raleigh (gusts probably) but with all the tortured twisted branches on the oak and maple trees from Debby, it'll bring down more if stronger models verify. This isn't Miami, doesn't take a hurricane to flood, take down trees and cause power outages. 

Models show a mixed story as some take it further inland while others keep it closer to the coastline. The models also show possible problems way down the road for Florida as something could form in the Caribbean and catch a ride up over Florida or around Florida and then roll up the East Coast. I'm not saying that will happen, but with the current pattern favoring development from the Caribbean over African Waves that's a distinct possibility not just because models hint at it.... but because he pattern itself doesn't seem to be going away any time soon. 

Let's start with Baby Bear.

NAM a short term model...

..if ever it was good to use.

Shows it coming in ...

...moving inland.

Impacting both Raleigh & Charlotte.

A long tail is curious... more could follow?

h

Mama Bear ... EURO 

Brings "IT" in over Raleigh.

VA gets part as does SC

Then for the rest of the week....

...it acts like the GFS.

So much drama.... 

..dancing all over the Carolinas.

hmnnn

The ICON is Papa Bear this year.

"IT" also does Raleigh....
...then goes up towards MTNS

Then..dances around similar to the EURO.

(hate when steering currents go wonky)

Last but not least.

We are going to look at the CMC

Calling this one Aunt Gladys Bear... 

(long range, entertainment value)

Hey go for broke ...ya know.

My 1st silly thought after "oh no" 

was.....

BINGO! 

4 in a row diagonal 

What do I think?

I think it's too soon to tell. I think if there's a year to worry on something coming up from the Caribbean this would be the Year. Obviously, South Florida should stay alert as it's not the only model hinting at this and the Ensembles are singing Moon Over Miami ...but Miami is also called the Magic City so let's not think on this too much. If this was the EURO or maybe the ICON there's be a yellow circle with zero percent, but Canadian is the crazy but fun cousin of the GFS so.. just no... we are far from being out of the woods. Some models take a low from down below, near Florida and up towards Carolina again and continues on it's way ... up the coast perhaps. 

Oh ... well Oh is for October and the long range GFS decides that by turning the calendar, magically the tropics come alive including a MDR wave as two systems form beneath two high pressure areas. Maybe they just collide. Nice open door to follow each other out to sea. I'm not ready for October yet personally. 

If you know me you know me.  No not singing that song. 

I'm very skeptical of anything rolling off of Africa and making it across to threaten us, but GFS never says never. 

ICON this season has been the new EURO ... 

The Storm off the Carolinas is a done deal, does it get a name? Depends on the mindset of the NHC and truly I think it should considering Chris got a name and they've been promising Gordon won't last long for a while putting out discussion showing it weakening to a TD at best. Could bounce back later but who knows for sure, apparently not the NHC as they are nervous on pulling the plug on Gordon.

IF the Carolina Storm is Helene it'll be a local event. No big time chasers are going to rush to greet it. I'd be content in Raleigh to get another Tropical Storm this year, maybe go down to the beach... or somewhere near there. 

Many experts insist the season gets busy last half of September, as I just paid my Saks bill I can definitely say "this is now the 2nd half of September" so not going to hold my breath til October.

Love weather. Love a wild beach or river or a wide open view from the Lake to make me smile and breathe or is it breathe and smile.... 

Keep the hurricanes away from my kids in South Florida and I'll be happy.

Winter is down the road and so whatever we get at this point from the tropics is icing on a little tiny, delicious cupcake with less calories and is just the treat to go with a cup of coffee or Pumpkin Spice Latte. My daughters sent me these for Mother's Day ... cute... don't think Melissa has one with a hurricane on it tho you can get GF and Dairy Free but they are not free as they do cost money.  

https://www.bakedbymelissa.com/gifts.html Cute, delicious and on Instagram of course. 

Not saying Helene is a cupcake .... 

...or a walk in the park 

(I know which park I wanna go to for it)

IF this is Helene.

My bottom line.

NHC named Chris... BOC rates I guess.

Few are even looking at Gordon.

Earthnull bottom left is closed center.

Subtropical maybe...

... transforms to Tropical?

Maybe?

Helene is a good name for it.

Just my thoughts.

If Recon verifies.

Have a wonderful day.

Long blog but promised models.

Thoughts on down the tropical road.

I do look at models sometimes.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever.