Tropical Trouble Brewing Later Ths Week in the SW Caribbean... Model Madness On Line.... Y'all All Need to Calm Down... And Possibly Stock Up On Hurricane Supplies..

 

Coming Attraction poster.

Nothing there yet...

Not even a movie trailer!

Yes does look like Halloween!

Short blog this morning. We're having the carpets cleaned today so my house feels like I'm moving or just moved in with things piled everywhere there is no carpet. I woke up to a thick, heavy layer of fog that is rare for Raleigh. I mean thick, as in when you live in California not Carolina. So went for a fast walk, took some pics and not much time to look through every model this morning that is in disagreement with another model and new model runs will come out soon enough. The potential is there for tropical trouble to come out of the deep Caribbean Sea and depending on timing and how the set up is once it forms it has the potential to rock someone's world in a city further to the North. 

When something forms in the SW Carib, down by the CAG in late September you know it's going to make landfall, it's a given and even if it tried to get out of the Caribbean by turning NE it still makes landfall. The SW Carib is a cousin to the EPAC yet it's a polor oppostive of the EPAC side of the family as they almost always turn out to sea and an EPAC hurricane makes landfall...it's only a matter of where. 

Wilma was an October Hurricane.

Just an example...calm down.

Moves up towards Yucatan.

Smells a cold front....

...zooms away through Florida.

Another October Hurricane.

Hurricane for a hot minute.

Hurricane Floyd 1987.

Similar track.

We are running ahead of schedule this year..

..I do believe.

So showing October vs September.

As for models, I'll talk on them later. Remember the GFS model is like your cousin who rides around in a red convertible sports car that has hurricane stickers all over it's bumpers waving to friends on the street. The EURO is still mostly asleep and is yet to join the party, probably a good idea as it's going to get really busy IF the models verify and we have a deep threat from the Caribbean in the Gulf of Mexico and more models currently aim for Florida, but there are some that take aim on the Mid Gulf Coast heading deep inland. So stay tuned. Be like the EURO...get some rest, pay some bills, take control of the clutter and know we will be crazy busy this weekend not just with football games but tracking the tropics.

Besos 

BobbiStorm

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