Hurricane Harbor: 5PM Update...- Large Cyclone Forming in Carib. Models & NHC Forecast Make PTC9 a Major Hurricane...

Rather than the cone at top.

What's changed??

11 AM on Left............5 PM on Right.

Using Tallahassee as a marker.

Cone nudged a bit to left.

Not a lot but also angle of approach.

Going farther inland....

Atlanta in the Cone.

Actual Cone.

Note cone is for path of center.

Impacts can and will be outside the Cone.

Really good agreement on models.

Some pull a bit left or right.

These are my thoughts, PTC 9 is having problems forming due to a bit of dry air nearby and some consistent SW shear blowing off intense storms to the NE making many people think the true center is further to the NE where most of the weather is and the forecast for shear is for it to lessen. Add in Hurricane John, an overachiever that was underestimated as was Otis last year that's making landfall and trying to get some of it's energy into the Carib. There's also a bit of a feature to the North of where the center is forming that might help pick it up more and intensify it or could inhibit it as it's a work in progress.

Watch tip of the Yucatan in the loop below.

Sure looks as if a small ULL is forming.

Maybe not, maybe yes.

They love this region.

Hard to forecast.

Getting stronger all day...

..tho small.

Can't ignore it anymore.

So mentioning it.

Stay tuned...

...keep reading.

Weak and trying to form.

Forecast to be a Hurricane on Wednesday.

A Major Hurricane on Thursday...

...before landfall.

keep reading... from this morning.

Thanks for reading...

..and sharing on Twitter!

You can compare the WV loop above...

...with the one below from earlier.

I'm going to start this blog backwards.

Rather than show the red circle.....

...let's look at intensify forecast.

This is the real question.

Big difference.

Earthnull shows 2 things.

1 small tight TS John in EPAC*

HUGE BROAD circulation 97L

97L still in formation phase.

One of the biggest factors in a CAG storm that comes out of the Caribbean is how fast does it tighten up. You know those ads on X that promise you a tight, fashion model body if you download their APP and in 30 days you will look like a Rock Star? Okay, first of all that doesn't usually verify and we do not have 30 days for this system to become a Rock Star as it's going to move towards a landfall this week. I don't have to tell you that no exercise APP is going to pull you in shape in 5 or 6 days.

We aren't even sure this is Helene, though thought process logically would say it is and yet there's a new boy in town way out by Africa that the NHC seems to really love. A strong tropical wave off of Africa, with high curving out to sea potential.........yet too soon to call is now at 70%. Our system in the Carib is at 90% and yet many models bring the unnamed Carib system towards landfall before the end of this week.

NHC has a lot to decide and time is running out on that decision. I'm waiting til 11 AM to see if they do in fact put out a Cone of some kind. Recon getting data, if the data supports a broad, CLOSED, circulation they may upgrade to Tropical Depression or even Potential Cyclone watches and warnings.