RED Cherry Bomb? Where's the Invest?? Lyrically Confused This Morning. GOM on Alert for Tropical Formation Down Below. UPDATE LATER TODAY

 

Leading with Eric Burris.

Listened to him earlier.

He made one point over and over.

"We don't know yet"

So what do we know?

70% cherry jelly bean for GOM

lil lemon not talking on it.

orange area... not today.

That's approximate area its forming.

Or trying to form. Will take a while.

What we see today on satellite imagery.

Last box I'm putting here...

...changes on every run

fast expiration date

like sushi

Chick is in NC a bit South of me.

Mike makes it easy.

So sharing too!

What do we see from Mike's grid showing models is they all show something, but they all disagree with just what something is....

Some show monster hurricane ...other's show a sloppy mess or a sheared storm which is logical as a frontal boundary is coming down to grab it and that often shears a storm. Then again depends on how far North it is and how strong it is once it gets PAST the tip of the Yuke.  

Some come in faster and some come in longer.

If you live in Mississippi and Alabama you are watching it carefully.....

                     If you live in the Big Bend you are watching it in a big way.

                                       If you live in Tampa you're thinking "not again"

                                                             If you watch long run of GFS Miami is thinking "what?"

GFS, the long range model, keeps showing a storm aiming at South Florida... as in let's do it again but a bit further South. Honestly, that would have to be one heck of a cold front for it to pull that far to the right that far to the South. Okay, could have a system off the coast pulling it and ......

And the bottom line is I'm gonna update the blog later today when there should be an Invest ... you'd think. I mean we are at 70% Red. 

Bottom line is:

If you live anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico, especially from TX/LA border to Florida pay attention to updated info regarding the formation of a tropical cyclone this week. I can't even promise you this will be Helene. IF it's slow to form and broad and sloppy then some fast changing area can steal the H name leaving this with the I name. But, for the time being most people feel it will be Helene. 

Models change. No center. 

Just a big ole red blob telling y'all to keep your eyes wide open and head's up a tropical cyclone be forming.

Honest.

Be back later. 

As Eric Burris said over and over this morning "we don't know yet" and that's the most honest answere. 

Yes there are some I trust very much ... with a proven record of being on the money with a suggested landfall, but I am not suggesting anything yet. I'm in NC so obviously watching models that bring it's leftovers up this way more than other ones. That's honest.

Be Back Later.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever

Just a song not a forecast.

Bonus song.

Found it.

There was a song named Cherry Bomb.

Loved her back in the day...