Hurricane Harbor: 3PM - 120 MPH Major Hurricane Helene.......Upgraded to Major Hurricane!! Forecast to Make Landfall Soon... NHC Forecasts FAST TRACK Speed on Approach. Moving NNE at 16 MPH

Major Hurricane Helene

Helene looks a bit tired.

Being silly.

It has an eye...

....looks a bit bloodshot.

Helene has fought to clear dry air out.

Been an ongoing battle.

She seems to have won the battle.

CAT 3 Hurricane.

You can see here...

EYE seems closed off.

And her winds went up.

Major Hurricane.

Waiting on the 5 PM Advisory.

Stay tuned.

* * *

Noon

Close up and personal

Right sided system.

Bulges to the right with TS WINDS

(mustard yellow)

Note distance between now and next point.

Forecast to pick up speed fast.

Major at landfall.

This disclaimer is HUGE

and most impt with HELENE

Satellite image vs the Cone.

Shows where the weather is ...

..and where it's going.

NHC tracks the center circulation.

Remember that.

This is Helene

Wrapped up like a Hurricane finally.

EYE in the middle

Caught by the general flow...

pulling WEATHER UP

Before Hurricane & TS winds hit...

....rain & flooding is already there.

close up of Interactive 11 AM CONE

yet the cone........

...follows the "center" of Helene.

It's "eye" yet weather goes WIDE.

This is my concern...

..the message is mixed.

Sends a bad signal in ways.

After landfall watch the WEATHER

not a decaying swirl that NHC is tracking.

Tho with Helene WINDS will be strong inland.

Then... it decays in a dancing drama...

not discussing the whole Fujiwhara dance.

Hovers over Tennessee for dayssss

IF forecast verifies

Following the WEATHER

You need to follow your local warnings.

In Florida and Georgia

Tennessee

Carolinas.

Up the coast...

Energy from Helene

merges with the frontal trough.

I am not going to chase a naked center.

I'm going to follow the WEATHER

As WEATHER more impt.

Next 36 hours forecast to have strong wind.

Impt if you are in the CONE to pay attn

Going wide tho...

www.weather.gov

Warnings will move up the coast.

The grid below is on Spaghetti Models.

Mike makes awesome grids!

www.spaghettimodels.com

To keep this simplistic I am going to just call this a frontal boundary as the many meteorological terms can become confusing and distracting. it's raining up the whole East Coast way ahead of Hurricane Helene's landfall while she is still trying to consolidate her eye (as per 11 AM NHC Discussion) and we wait to see what really happens in real time with Helene as she is making landfall later today. Doesn't get any faster than that so NHC discussion is below and not going to harp on it. There is a forecast, it is dependent on how Helene consolidates. They are doing the best they can with a very difficult set up and a very odd 105 MPH Hurricane with low barometric pressure still trying to consolidate it's eye completely. On one level it's not important as the main concern here despite the strong Major winds is the widespread flooding Helene will cause far from the cone and in the path of the eye; devastating flooding and then as it moves inland from both torrential rain and elevation the flooding moves inland up the hills, mountains and valleys prone to flash flooding and mudslides.

People ask if the eye is wobbling.

Some Mets I respect feel it's wobbling East.

Could Helene come in E of current Cone?

NHC running out of time to change it.

Will see at 5 PM.

While it has an eye... it's an odd eye.

NHC said much depends on how ...

..."inner core can contract"

shown above.

NHC official bottom line.

I'll update at 5 PM

Or if anything new comes up.

Moving on...

The torrential tropical rains....

..enhance the already complex set up.

Tennessee and Kentucky!

All of Georgia.

Did I mention this is the 5 day map.

Thru October 1st from NOAA.

I tend to look at the Hurricane as a whole package of impacts, way more than who gets the strongest winds and the exact location of landfall. Especially a hurricane as huge as Helene that is currently producing recorded Tropical Storm gusts far to the East in Miami. While Apalachee Bay may have record storm surge (since we began keeping records) areas to it's East will get inundated and flooded as well and the water will move up the St. Marks River and I'm concerned on Cedar Key that's getting close to twice what it got in the last big hurricane last year. Down the whole way to Tampa there's water rise and flooding in small communities and flooding is the worst as in Florida's hot humid climate the mold begins growing immediately. It took retirees I knew well in Key West several years to move back into their homes in Key West after Wilma, as they were on a limited budget and the big money in Key West had the professionals tied up and giving bonuses. I know it's hard to believe but many in Key West and beautiful places such a as Cedar Key are not all billionaires who own a pretty vacation home they come to stay in during a few months in the Winter.

When I say "worst" I mean aside from having a Category 5 Hurricane level your house like a Twister the way Andrew did in parts of Homestead. After that...........water damage and flooding is harder to get out and fix than to repair the roof and damages in the yard.