Updated 5 PM - Tropical Storm Helene Stronger. Spent the Day Consolidating It's Core. Thoughts on PTC Cones.

Helene spent the day developing her core.

Convection wrapping around it.

Interactive cone.

Any small variation in track...

..can make big impacts at landfall.

Helene makes a beeline for Tally...

..and Atlanta inland.

Below we look at where the rain goes

5 Day Rain Forecast from NOAA

The center of the circulation is tracked by the NHC, however while the "center" may be tracked more to the West on the last few days the rainfall itself will spread out in different directions with many areas under localized watches and warnings. So pay attention please to your local NWS office for your own prioritzed needs here with this TS forecast to be a strong hurricane. The five day rain forecast above shows you how many areas will be receiving stronger than usual rainfall, and I'll add in the Carolinas we have an entire week of rain before the rain from Helene's remnants arrive.

Asheville, NC

Rainy week already....

then comes leftovers from Helene!

Intensify forecast rom NHC

Thanks for reading.

You can compare and contrast...

..with cones and graphics below.

BobbiStorm

* * *

Bottom Line wind speed wise...

...NHC forecasts Major Hurricane Helene

Interactive Cone...

...allows you to zoom in up close.

Way too personal for Tallahassee..

Left side of Cone closeup.

Right side of Cone.

Just North of Tampa Bay.

NRL cone is way wider.

Places that can have impacts outside the Cone.

Impacts outside the Cone is important.

Cone tracks the center path of the storm.

Flooding, tornadoes, high surf...

..can happen outside the Cone.

As it says on the top of the Cone.

 

We have a tropical storm!

Zooming out as you can do on Zoom Earth.

Note Atlanta is in the cone.

Inland impacts. Lot of hardwood trees there...

Read further down in the blog about that problem.

Mimic Image.

Wow, really wrapping up.

You can see the long tail it will have.

Really wow image from Mimic.

Our storm is very visible in the wide WV loop.

Water Vapor.

Shows features well that will pick it up..

I have nothing to add other than to follow the advice of the NHC and your local National Weather Service aka NWS. Take this hurricane seriously, some models make it an INTENSE Major Hurricane. But as NHC says in Dicussion we are early in the game, just gathering information with the exact location of  Helene and expect further advisory packages to have more precise info and the cone will narrow somewhat with a higher confidence. 

My thoughts on what is a PTC and why we need PTC and my thoughts on Helene were written while waiting for NHC to upgrade PTC9 to Tropical Storm Helend. Satellite imagery the last few hours really showed it was almost there and yet people are complaining nonstop why the NHC puts up a PTC Cone and it boggles my mind that people don't understand ...especially when a storm is forecast to form very close in with little lead time or in the Gulf of Mexico where it's a trapped raging bull.

Please read. I'll update at 5 PM or sooner if there is any huge change in Helene.

Thanks for reading. 

Song at end........

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... as many of you know my family lived in Key West in the 1800s before moving up to Tampa around 1900 as it had running water vs cisterns and Tampa was becoming a booming city. Merchant go where there trade goes and as they had tobacco business ...well much of the cigar making businesses moved north to Tampa that was more welcoming and easier to get to and get product from Quincy Florida where my family had Shade Tobacco Fields. I know this part of the world well, though growing up in Miami I heard family stories and saw pictures and studied the history. So the bottom part of the blog touches on the drama of "will Tampa get hit" along with why Potential Troical Cyclone Cones are important and what you should be doing when one is up ...other than complaining it's taking to long. If you are in the Cone, use that time wisely.

Oh and while I am not Cuban I was raised in Miami in Little Havana and my ancestors worked in Ybor City so I have to remind myself I am not Cuban. Besos is a common sign off in a letter it means "kisses" vs say Love BobbiStorm. Now you know the rest of the story. 

Watch out for Storm Tides. Storm Surge. Flooding from Heavy Rain and the marsh flooding way far inland. Deaths are mostly from flooding, from water so watch out for the tide when it is high....

I wrote this part of the blog online while waiting for the 11 AM info to come in.

It's frustrating to hear people say that because it didn't form yesterday, they do not believe Helene is forming and those same people said the same thing when Ian took a long, long time to form and hey it formed, it made landfall where the forecast said it would (give or take a little bit) back when it was barely a tropical wave approaching the Islands about to enter the Caribbean Sea. Gotta give the NHC credit on picking up and forecasting formation when there was nothing there to see on satellite imagery.

If you remember Ian, you should know Helene is forming. Have a little patience.

This the part where I rant a bit longer than some can read & I try to stay within X limits but since I can write long. Listen up. NHC puts up PTC Cone to warn areas that don't have 7 days to prepare. Cones now go out 7 days. GOM Canes landlocked, someone gets it in an area where there are low lying roads along the beautiful Gulf. If you think chasers hate chasing in parts of the BIG BEND where there are few roads in & out & it's either swamp/marsh/low country or heavy wooded areas where it's hard to get a good view of the sky. Fishing shacks, vacation homes, cute little retirement villages and towns with families, schools and their businesses...there whole world is in those little towns that are close in to the picturesque, beautiful waters of the Gulf of Mexico. They all flood easily. You may think Chasers will go anywhere, but they prefer to outlive today's hurricane to chase again somewhere else. It's not their favorite spot but it's the cards that were dealth. People living there know a Major Hurricane can blow it all away, they do the best they can and usually evacuate down the same small roads leaving the area that chasers are driving towards. Electric companies and Cat Adjusters set up nearby in local towns with some infrastructure further inland ready to run down as soon as they can to do their jobs. NHC puts out a cone, a product with lots of watches and warnings both about rain, wind and storm surge. There are storm surge maps online, if you live there you most likely know and if you are new to the area go ask an old timer. People ask me intangible questions that I try to answer, but the bottom line on every single IF question is IF the forecast verifies. If for some reason in 12 hours we do not have a Tropical Storm then we have to re-evaluate the situation. IF PTC9 dawdles too long and forward speed is slow... IF PTC9 does not intensify on time .... IF PTC9 is doesn't quickly become a TS (12 hours) a day from now & then a Hurricane... IF....yes track could change some (we are still far out) and yes intensity could change (UP or down) and yes it might miss the Big Bend and bend right or left... Track is based on a forecast based on what is now and IF the storm is following the forecast. It's no surprise the cone changes in real time with real events. NHC adjusts, slowly but they adjust, and when John in the EPAC turned into a strong hurricane fast, intensifying fast they put out a Special Statement. They have a job. You have a job. Your job is to know you live in the tropics and tropical systems come ashore and travel inland. They bring heavy rain, storm surge and twisters in their bands. Your job is to know if you're in that part of the GOM that floods immediately due to the shelf offshore or if you live near a creek, river or bayou that floods fast and plan accordingly. And, if you are here reading this ... it means you know and you are watching in real time even though there is a cone and a forecast ... you know things can change and often will change. What we know? The pattern produces a tropical cyclone. It's currently aimed at the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The pattern, forecast cone takes it close in along Bays such as Tampa Bay that could flood fast creating problems for people who live there, work there and for products coming in to that port that may get delayed on their way to your elsewhere in Florida. Ships need to get out of the way of the approaching storm/hurricane. Navy ships, Container Ships and Cruise Ships. We all need heads up and the NHC is trying to do their best, sending out planes that sample the atmosphere and hopefully provide better data to nail down any inconsistencies. Lastly, as always inland impacts will be bad IF the forecast verifies and this becomes a Major Hurricane. Inland North Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Carolinas do not have pretty coconut palms that generally bend with the wind. The trees go snap, crackle and pop. They fall on homes and kill people or cause fires that destroy the homes fast. Flooding takes out highways and people are trapped. In NC recently our No Name Tropical Storm toppled a huge tree that fell on a house, a fire started, the people ran outside waiting for fire trucks that never came as there was only one road into the cute subdivision and that road was washed out by what became a raging river and carried the road bed away. The fire truck crew felt helpless, their friends horrified felt helpless and they with the family watched their home go up in flames a total loss. You see a 1 year old learning to walk, you don't expect to see him start to runn the next day. You don't expect him to become an adult because you're ready for him to become an adult..."oh my gosh how is he only 13 he acts like he's..." nope hurricanes form when a closed center develops, aligns vertically and then it begins moving towards the area in and around the NHC Cone. It's a process, it takes time. Some kids don't walk until they are 17 months others are standing bouncing around in their playpen at 7 months. Each kid is different, each hurricane is different. The one commonality with hurricanes is we have the NHC to provide us watches and warnings. Why would you expect a tropical system forming without the benefit of a tropical wave (some there..there) forming from a CAG in the Carib to hurry up and become a hurricane fast. Use this time to prepare your home, your evacuation route and do what you can to save your business and your home. Let the NHC be the NHC and check with your local NWS and local meteorologists and experts of all kind in your area such as Emergency Management people on the air or social media telling you what to do. Don't be blase. Don't panic. Keep checking back on X or whatever social media you use and get your info from the NHC NOT some Aunt Martha that had a dream and she said it's going to fall apart...no follow the NHC. Thanks for reading.... BobbiStorm Ps IF Tampa ever gets "the hurricane" everyone is always expecting will happen, it will be a horrible sight and you'll see the damage across all levels of society including one of the biggest ports in Florida being shut down. It's called Tampa Bay for a reason. And, there was good high land further in where early settlers like my family built homes and in all the creeks and bayous prone to flooding and hurricanes there are cute fishing shacks and hotels but no big cities for a reason, they get hit often and old timers learned to trust Mother Nature with patterns that repeat. They trusted Mother Nature yet some people have problems trusting the NHC. Go figure. You have a Cone, a forecast check it out every 6 hours for any changes. Bottom Line. I'll proof read in the blog as I'm posting this as there isn't much else to say other than watch and wait for the storm to form. If you read the whole thing thanks!

I'm not saying this will turn towards Tampa Bay, I am not implying anything. I am trying to explain why there is always "hype" about Tampa. First off it's the big city in the area where news crews can go and take awesome pictures of a beautiful city that can be destroyed in some Major Hurricane... (bit of hype for news) and people know where it is... they don't know where Hudson Beach is or Anna Maria Island.

Historically it gets lucky. Good blog on Hurricane History. We aren't even sure what the track was for the 1848 Hurricane that hit before it was very developed, just an Army post and trading post. http://blog.eckelberry.com/tampa-bay-hurricane-history/