Hurricane Helene Intensifying. Eye Wall Forming. Forecast to be Major Hurricane At Landfall... Rapidly Moving Deep Inland to Tally, GA ... as a Strong Hurricane. Miami Has TS Warnings. Flood Warnings Across Much of Coastal Florida. Helene Mean!

 

Hurricane Helene

Dressed in Fall Colors for Cancun

Note disclaimer in black at the top.

Hazardous conditions ..outside the cone.

More on this later.

Impacts go up into AT 

Tennessee Valley

Tallahassee and Atlantic in Cross hairs.

Below you can see EYE forming

Cuban radar

NHC forecast points.

In discussion they said they cold adjust up...

...for now 125 MPH.

Easy to believe 130 MPH if not more.

Time will tell.

For those who read this blog often.... you know I have said over and over of late that just because the MDR is shut down and African Tropical Waves are not behaving and raining themselves out over Morocco does not mean the 2024 Hurricane Season is a bust and over. When the MDR shuts down and we have very few long trackers moving WNW from Africa towards Florida, we get slammed by huge Major Hurricanes from the SW Caribbean. I have said this over and over the last few months. Hurricane Helene is what I meant and we are far from done with this hurricane season so if you got lucky and only have a TS Warning from Helene it doesn't mean that you'll get away without having a hurricane as we move into October. South Florida especially is most vulnerable in October from hurricanes from the SW and sometimes from any which way Mother Nature can.....   so stay alert, this is not the finale for 2024 Hurricane Season but it's another landfalling hurricane in a year where we had less storms than we thought and yet all have made landfall. Forecasts for a dangerous hurricane season verified in my mind.

Hard to see but Bermuda had a hurricane landfall.

Add Helene to the list here soon.

Main points from NHC Discussion:

Hurricane Helene on track towards landfall in Big Bend, last minute minor adjustments may occur. Understand for those of you in the Cone at landfall, this is not important. For a Storm Chaser that wants to position themself directly in the center of eye it's important. For everyone else do not focus on the exact cone as much as your local warnings.

There's danger in the cone, danger in the eye, danger in the eyewall and even danger outside the eyewall. There's danger along the SW Florida coast especially in low lying areas far to the East of the Cone. Bays such as Tampa Bay can be pummeled by high swollen storm surge and create flooding far inland. Offshore hurricanes forecast to be this huge in size expand the danger zone way beyond the Cone. 

             

Helene is moving through a near perfect environment with low shear and every element is in favor of RI. Expecting Rapid Intensification in the next 24 hours. Models in great agreement.

Everything you can think of that a Huge Major Huricane can do it most likely will do as it moves towards Landfall. Places in SFL will get a good tropical impact, not a hurricane but stronger than they expect. If someone's roof leaks, it won't be pretty. Small debris will fly in the wind. Tornadoes could form from SFL up the E FL coast. Flooding on every island to the East of it as it's moving towards landfall will have water rise, flooding and maybe even significant flooding far from the Cone and not near Landfall. On the NE coast of Florida there will be water rise which will surprise some who have not seen this before; those who went through this with Hurricane Irma will remember the flooding from Jax up to St Marys Georgia while Irma's center was moving towards Atlanta the flooding far to the East on the Florida NE coast was huge. 

As for Tallahassee, Florida's capital city, they are in the cone and have been in every cone and many people live there from people who work in government to FSU to just those who love Tally as we call it in Florida as it's that place in FL where you can drive to the beaches but at the same time they get a touch of seasons and in this case Hurricane Season is coming at them with mean Helene.

Note the places NHC speaks of....

Yucatan now.

Life threatening flash flooding.

Urban flooding.

All kinds of FL North Florida

SE AKA Deep South

Southern Appalachians (MTNS)

Upper Tennesseee Valley 

This is not just about landfall.

Your local NWS is best you can get...

...for YOUR own priorities.

If you go this warning on your phone..

...follow the warning and do what they say.

People died in IAN refusing to evacuate ...

Christian sent me this... using it.

Mandatory Evacuation Order.

For those who must see models.

Lastly Mike does YouTube.

It's easy to listen when you can..

...stop, rewind "what did he say"

Giving good info.

Worth a listen.

Jam packed with good advice.

No one knows Florida like Mike.

Well, okay also Bryan Norcross on Fox Wxr.

That's it for now.

Just some messy thoughts from my head.

With visions of eye walls spinning, dancing

Written at 10:30 waiting for 11 AM advisory.

Today is a Storm Day... a Hurricane Day for Hurricane Chasers and Researchers. All about Helene Day.

TWC is on mute with closed captioning so I don't miss anything.

Listening to ...and watching FOX WXR on my iPhone.

Busy on X kind of humbled in ways by amount of interactions and response to a few videos especially, kind of blows my mind if I think on it. And, I have to detach so I don't over think and debate being myself and it's who I am during the Hurricane Season. BobbiStorm. 

I was a Keynote Speaker at a Cat Adjusters Convention in New Orleans some years back. I asked if anyone had questions. Many questions but the first one was "how did you get the name BobbiStorm?" I sort of giggled inside, trying to look professional and said "well it's a long story but in the divorce my ex-husband got the AOL account with the name BobbiCane so........I guess I'm not so creative and made BobbiStorm for my own AOL account" and yes old enough to remember AOL and trust me those were the days in that everyone who was into hurricanes from news reporters to researchers to forecasters to  chasers to writers to amateur mets were all in one place vs scattered across Instagram, Threads, TicToc, Facebook, X the way it is today. 

So excuse me for looking back and at the same time dealing with what is today... and today IS a Hurricane Day.

Trying hard to get the message out that "Yes, Miami could get 70 MPH winds in wild squalls moving fast caught in the flow making it feel more like Hurricane force winds" and it's hard to tell people to "stay home" when that's not a luxury and have to go to work. Going to work means driving half an hour in Miami if not an hour in traffic to a job, being stuck on expressway and high overpasses and bridges when wild squalls with strong TS winds slams your SUV.  Huge palm fronds slam across your windshield as you drive down Sheridan Street in Hollywood begging your little kids in their car seats to "you have to stop fighting because Mommy is driving in a bad rain storm"  ....visions that dance through my head of both memories and what my kids will be dealing with tomorrow while Helene is racing towards a deadly landfall in the Florida Big Bend area.

So this part of the blog was written before the 11 AM. Writing is my way of processing thoughts, thinking as I type and I've made good money writing and editing so yes I write the way many people breathe.

When I get overwhelmed for a few minutes, I put on some good music... I shop online (Sephora, Ulta) and cook dinner. Otherwise it's all about Helene today and Helene is going to be a mean Major Hurricane.

I will update later today.

I am begging you, yes begging, please take warnings from local authorities, the NHC, your local NWS and local experts in your area. It may seem a huge disconnect that Miami has a Tropical Storm Warning and no it's not just government officials doing CYA but making sure you know it IS probable if you are out and about on Thursday you will get slammed with blinding rain, debris such as big ass palm fronds slamming into your windshield or worse. Tornadoes are a concern for all of from Miami up to Raleigh and especially JAX, Savannah and Charleston. 

Helene is not hype, she's real and mean and coming at you sooner than you think. And, she's aimed at Tallahassee and Atlanta and will slam into parts of Florida inland as a Major Hurricane (rare) and into Georgia as a mean hurricane ...also rare. Believe it. Prepare for the worst, hope and pray for the best!

Follow your plans, stay on top of any local last minute changes and err on the side of caution.

Keep your phones fully charged, talk while it's plugged in charging. Power will go out....

Be back later,

BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.