Noon - Major Hurricane Milton 150 MPH on ENE at 9 MPH Towards Landfall West Coast of Florida ... Tampa Bay Area. If In Cone or Near It ...Use This Time Wisely

 

Let's deal with the yellow elephant in the room.

The yellow circle that's part of the Miami rain..

..is going to move offshore out to sea.

Nadine the next name.

Milton is currently a 150 MPH.

May be starting to intensify again.

Cone Major Hurricane Milton

From 11 AM NHC DISC below.

Official wind and location forecast points. 

I do think it'll be higher than 150 MPH soon.

There are signs of RI but signs are not facts.

After the fact it will or won't.

It could.

Powerful Major Hurricane Milton.

Structure around eye is explosive.

Explosive leads to intensification.

Models are in total agreement.

W FL getting Milton.

Does Tampa get it head one?

What if Sarasota area gets it?

What if it hits N of Tampa?

It's hitting the area in the Cone.

Near the Cone stand by for small adjustments.

Cape Coral treat it as if you're in the cone.

Port St Lucie on E Coast in the Cone.

Palm Bay in the Cone on E Coast

Lakeland and Orlando in the cone

Palm Coast on the edge, treat it like in the cone.

 Cones wobble by miles N or S every 6 hours.

Close up these are surge warnings.

Note they go South of the Cone.

Those areas could see...

...historic flooding never seen in modern time.

Since Tampa Bay because a big City vs a Fort.

The Lake is in the Cone.

Again warnings up South of the Cone.

Storm Surge, flooding

Add in Winds.

Wind Map...TS Winds and Hurricane Winds.

Lastly, NRL Map. NAVY

Current as of 11 AM

Small red circles Hurricane Winds

Large red circles TS winds.

Grid area shows impacts possible.

(wind, storm, surge, flooding, tides)

Note circles get larger WIDE...

...after landfall.

Again NHC 11 AM track.

Note hurricanes lean in direction they are moving.

Don't listen to TicToc Psychics....

...or friends on Facebook.

NHC is the bottom line.

My own thoughts...

....keeping them basic.

Do not ask "what do I know they aren't saying?" I'm always honest if I believe NHC is missing something or concerned on timing or intensity, as I said above I do believe it'll be stronger soon ...stronger than their immediate forecast. I'll add in high water mark often higher than seen in forecast in some randonly unlucky area so plan for higher.  Shear is forecast to show up as Milton approaches landfall, shear is way harder to forecast than a hurricane so it's always an IF. A relative asked me that question above who lives on the bay in Miami a few blocks from my 2 youngest kids who live in a tall Condo on the Miami River... so IF there was something to say I'd say it to them and here in my blog as this blog is my public Weather Diary. I have often been way too personal during the off-season or when younger in a mood :) but I try these days to stay on track as so many read this and link to it and follow me on X. I could be wrong on intensity, I really hope it stays weaker and shear appears and takes a huge toll on it's winds, but again storm surge is forever and exists way after the winds come down the storm surge keeps on rolling like a speeding train towards it's destination.

So keeping this part short due to needed updates later and honestly I have said all I can say about storm surge, flooding with hurricane force winds on top of storm surge making huge battering waves and worries on inland flooding just from rain before making the ground saturated before a Major Hurricane slams into Florida. I've mentioned that after landfall or during landfall the WIND FIELD will spread out WIDE at least DOUBLE IN SIZE across places far away from the Cone. Areas to the North and down in Miami, Broward and Palm Beach County will get strong Tropical Storm Gusts frequently so best to stay home if you can and not be on a high bridge across Biscayne Bay when hit with blinding rain and wind gusting to 70 MPH or I95. Just stay home if you can. Schools are closed for a reason. Bridges along Miami River are in locked down position for a reason.

1. Issues of where and who and which town gets direct landfall and worst storm surge, though nearby areas get a dome of water rushing across the land anywhere it can, any low spot, canal, river, cove, creek or marshy area. 

2. What does South Florida get weather wise as well as the very large metropolitan area from Miami to Palm Beach that includes the huge suburban Broward County and 3 large airports and is huge. Add in 3 large airports that could be impacted, check in real time. It could get 40 MPH gusts in squalls from far away Milton or 70 MPH gusts in wild rain squalls.  Tropical Storm Warning means you are expected to get Tropical Storm Force winds and FLOODING because it's rained for days before Milton and there are already parking lots flooded, homes located in low spots where flooding happens easily and this could be big across a wide area impacting millions of people in SFL far from the Cone. Note highways like I95 become partial swimming pools, inside lane gathers the rain and I know this as my youngest daughter's car stalled out in a strong Thunderstorm during May Monsoons. Yes, you can be on I95 and get water coming into your car and have to get out fast. It's Miami...read previous blogs on how Miami was a swamp and sometimes Mother Nature tries to reclaim it :( 

3. Do not worry today on "what if another hurricane is forming" because you have seen models for things that might happen on October 17th. Let's focus on this week in less than 2 days when Milton begins making landfall as a Major hurricane into Tampa Bay general area then into Orlando and then out across South Florida near Cape Kennedy. That whole track of the cone will have devastating winds as it moves fast inland and flooding.

That's it.

NHC has 1 job.

They do their job.

Do yours.

Stay SAFE. Stay ALIVE.

Protect your loved ones.

Follow warnings carefully.

Updating later today with new info.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever.....

Hard to find a Tampa song

But the lyrics apply