Hurricane Harbor: East Atlantic Busy - GOM Possibilities Aftermath of Helene... Send Charity or Help However You Can Please. I'll Be Offline Til Saturday Night

GOM has 40% chances.

This is good for a few reasons.

One is the obvious, we aren't expecting a tropical system to form in the immediate future, but there are possibilities on the 7 day. There is a new TD in the East Atlantica currently forecast to recurve and follow Captain Kirk up into the great known of the North Atlantic.

Less known for sure about the Gulf of Mexico. I'll be honest about models today, but know they will change as they always do even though sometimes they are onto the general idea... and the general idea plays out but with some variation...but I will be offline until Saturday Night doing my thing, and a much needed break I'll add from being online. So know anything I say today, may change tomorrow.

The GFS and Euro show a bunch of convection struggling to develop with shear nearby and generally aimging at Florida with rain, not such strong winds and maybe it can attain a name and maybe not. Time will tell. The ICON shows a bit more rain, maybe stronger winds as a systems tries to form and then hits lower in Florida than other models say Tampa South near Naples (can and will change) but still not very organized. I'm sure the GFS will spin up a hurricane while I'm offline and then pull back some on intensity. The longer we go without a storm the more the chance for a pattern change and when that pattern changes we will have different storm paths to watch other than straight for the Big Bend.

Later in October, and I feel we are ahead 3 weeks, you get into November patterns ... SFL Cuba and the Islands are more likely to see a hurricane hook right with a deep cold front. And, being honest sometimes some late blooming tropical wave approaches South Florida from the SE. Usually Carolinas are safer as is Texas but it's too soon to tell and it's been a strange, odd year that likes to break rules.

I'll be off until Saturday Night.

As always follow @tropicalupdate @tropicaltidbits and all my friends I follow like Dabuh and Chick in NC and always @ContentWxGuy ..... there are also many people I follow on X who are way more knowledgeable than their profile would imply as some people like to lay low under the radar and or have worked in the business for years (NHC/NWS local on air Mets) who are retired and work hard to pass along relevant information. Icyclone and Reed Timer for chasing and or general informatin.

Takes a village of weather people to deliver the weather.

I just wish the villages and towns in the path of Helene had been given a better heads up to what the NHC had insisted would happen bringing a catastrophic flooding event ...words they rarely use... how that message did not get to areas that possibly could have evacuated to safer ground is way beyond my paygrade and this is not a political comment just truth whoever they are .... it's almost criminal that the warnings were not raised in the area and evacuations offered to those in need as the NHC was screaming castastrophe and it's the job of local officials to pay attention especially after the French Broad River the river that is the reason Asheville exists as towns were always built around a river for transportation obviously as it's common for rivers to wind their way through mountain towns... when it was at flood level before the storm due to intense rain from the system that pulled Helene North ...it was a done deal the river would overflow as it did in 1916 and 1940 destroying everything in it's path as well as all the streams that feed into it through mountains towns that are usually pristine, paradises far removed from Atlantic Hurricanes.

Just is what it is... calling it like it is......hurts all of us that spent days trying to get the word out that NC mountains would flood and yet somehow close to 200 people have died, more than 500 are still missing and bodies are being found in trees, cars buried in mud and covered in the debris from their homes and businesses. It's horrible. No words and yes I need a few good days off.

Please donate and follow:

https://www.theyallsquad.org/

https://donorbox.org/max-velocity-yall-squad

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/

any reliable charity you know and in this case going with private groups vs government as I know some of these people by the work they do and did getting into mountains when bureaucracy held up help. Thankfully there is help on the way from governement agencies.

Forgive any typos my allergies are upsetting my eyes and the more I'm offline, which I'll be for other reasons ...the easier it is as well as taking meds and busy doing whatever I can to help where I can.

Sweet Snowy Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever

Ps no song... live and learn...hard to watch but important so this never ever happens again. Note floods will happen as well mudslides and landslides but in 2024 the warnings should have gotten out by locals and the message driven home how hard this would hit the mountains.

As I say always here Rain + Terrain = Pain (death and destruction)