Is Something Forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Question of the Hour! Atlantic Busy, But Not Threatening Land.

Carib area on a slow burn....

...to form.

40% now... 

...models disagreee

(always early right?)

So what do you do?

You go to the 7 day Rain Total Map.

Rain can be just rain, but no dangling fronts now.

Large messy area trying to form perhaps?

That's a lot of rain...

...especially for areas hit by Helene in FL

Then you look at Mimic.

Note the moisture feed..

Hot pink in middle of orange/magenta

Notice there is a thin blue line to N (Illinois)

pushing down on the loop.

So the big question here is on timing and strength.

Fast development, stays weak and shoots across Florida in that "orange flow" seen above.

Or...

Sits there trying to form the way many CAG systems do and drives everyone crazy til they begin to ignore it thinking it'll never form and then it does. 

There is an upper level low in the Carib.

It's moving towards the Yucatan.

What does that mean?

They can shear a developing storm.

or 

They can help it form in subtle ways.

or

Sometimes an ULL ingests too much  moisture.

Spinning fast, sort of suck in water..

Water (RAIN) can get caught up in it's circulation.

And, sometimes develop.

That happened with Imelda... 

I'll be back...

..not much to say except

Follow NHC... 

...they are awesome.

Again they predicted catastropic flooding

in NC in advance

while dealing with Helene making landfall.

2 PM updated Main Page from NHC

Wait

Watch

Stay aware!

Will update later

BobbiStorm

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