Updated 11 PM HURRICANE Milton 90 MPH.... Forecast to be a Strong Hurricane... Shear Maybe Near Landfall ... Hopefully Weaken a Drop.

NRL map....

Florida in the cross hairs of Milton

Inner Circle Hurricane force Winds.

Outer Circle TS winds.

I want to say with this sort of approach, that we've seen frequently last few years, weather often moves out ahead of the center fast so Milton could still be hours away from landfall yet strong, hurricane weather could race out ahead of it. Especially if there is predicted shear near landfall. Lots of IFs still. Currently cone S of Tampa. Sarasota, Longboat Key, Siesta Beach in center of NHC Cone. Tomorrow morning could be over Tampa Bay again or North of it. As the crow flies it's not that far on either side of Tampa Bay, so don't lock your mind in on which beach gets fame of "landfall" and worry more on what sort of impacts you will have where you live.

I told kids in Miami (who have little kids... nursery age) they were hopefully find down there and through there will be weather evacuating in traffic the length of Florida with 2 or 3 babies in car seats stuck in traffic, eventual accidents, cars running out gas and such should only be reserved for those that live in beautiful places such as Siesta Beach or those who used to live in Anna Maria Island (before Helene) who would need to undertake the evacuation on the Turnpike North .... it's not for the faint of heart, yet if you gotta do it you gotta do it. If you can go to a shelter near where you live or  friends inland in a strong, structurally well built house that is the best plan. Hotel rooms are booking up as I type and good luck with that. 

Track is set somewhere inside this dark tunnel.

From Tampico to Tampa 

Could this be Tampa's day of reckoning?

Not sure.... but it won't be pretty no matter what.

Or where the landfall is.

Are you a chaser? 

If so... you don't need me.

Chasers want the EYE.

Milton will go where the atmophere allows it.

Plain and simple.

Tomorrow... intensification.

Tomorrow...what wrinkles might rise up.

Lord I'm sounding like CW

Content Weather.

Going to sleep

Long day.

Need some sleep.

Sweet tropical dreams.

or Snowy dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter weather

Insta whatever

loop to music below.

2 PM below

* * * 

Nothing like BOC for development.

Cradles thes storm ...

...spins.

80 MPH

This is a well developed 80 MPH Cane.

Eye is seen on various other imagery.

Can make it out in the middle.

5 PM Cone from NHC ....

...important what they say.

What they do (watches? warnings?"

Timing is everything.

Milton taking it's time.

Going to put on a show.

Everyone in it's path must take it serously.

Please.

* * *

Recon found hurricane force winds.

So that happened.

Will update more info soon.

The wiggling Cone of Uncertainty 
1 Certain thing.

Florida getting Milton.

Like it or not.

Only chasers worry on track of eye.

NHC will nail it down.

Bottom line here.

125 MPH winds forecast by NHC

will update in real time.

Milton really pulling it together.

Solid red core.

I'd venture to say it's stronger than before.

When advisory being written.

It's maintained the pink in the white.

Intensification mode

Checklist for supplies for newbies below.

https://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

****

9 AM 

This seems to be the New Bermuda Triangle.

Last joke I'll make today.

2024 Hurricane Triangle?

As I have said before, several times, this season you can draw a line down the 60W line and we have two different Atlantics. So far, for the last few months since this strange hurricane season began everything to the right recurves up through the Atlantic. Left of the 60W line hurricanes make landfall. Yes, MDR was shut down for a long time before the dancing, conga line of recurving storms got going and as I said the SW Carib into the GOM would deliver what the MDR did not.

This is real and it's repetitive and it is what it is so let's not debate if this is or if this isn't happening.  Hurricane Season is about having a plan, made and refined during the quiet times, and getting your act together when it's time to "GO" with the plan and this is that time. What complicates this is that there is a large swath of weather out ahead of Milton that will lash the area with strong storms and then comes Milton, a small hurricane with the potential of being a strong Major hurricane. Will talk more on details later in the blog. But I want everyone to take this serious as it's a no joke time as watches and warnings will be up today at some point.

Before "the Cone" let's address this above.

Rain is going to slam Florida.

Before landfall.

Lessening your time to prepare.

And making this even more painful.

As flooding won't begin at zero ... 

on a scale of 0 to 10

It'll be starting at 5 or 6.

Current storms.

Milton in BOC

Strong storms moving towards FL now.

2 different systems.

Easy to say "just rain"

But rain before a hurricane is painful.

Impacts outside the Cone remember that.

Obviously speed matters.

That's crazy fast I'll say that.

In a 2 day period it travels very very fast.

As a hurricane.

Navy Map from NRL

Protect your property...

..the way they protect theirs.

In red circles basically the cone.

Outside areas that could get impacts.

Far from the Cone.

Interactive Cone below.

Earliest arrival of winds Tuesday 8 PM.

Not very far off.

Interactive Cone from NHC - use their page please.

Below is a link to the Wind Probabilities.

Understand....

There are winds from the core of the Hurricane.

Winds from the circulation around the Hurricane.

If you see your city in here go "oh"

Two lines go "OH"

Three lines "You're getting wind for sure"

Maybe not hurricane force but....

...but strong wind on top of rain.

Far from the Cone.

As in "impacts outside the cone"

NHC says it but do people listen?
Do you listen?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT4+shtml/060848.shtml? 

Simple, easy to read discussion from the NHC this morning and worth taking your time to read. It's as simple as 1, 2, 3. Milton moving E, begins to turn NE as a front is dipping down (because it's October) and the front grabs it. Then moves out into the Atlantic and this is the tricky part: The wind shifts coming around the back side of Milton and slams the East facing beaches of Florida from Jax down towards WPB as it's moving out into the Atlantic. 

So while Milton is moving towards a West Coast (near Tampa Bay) hurricane landfall...at some point after it crosses (general Orlando area) it will do a job on the Florida East Coast even as a weaker Hurricane. 

It's a squeeze play.

Atmosphere dictates track.

Milton has no other options.

If you are keeping track of the line in the Cone.

It basically goes over Mike's house.

Oldsmar ...Tampa.

St Pete then Tampa.

I'll update later today.

Watches and warnings will go up.

Sorry... doesn't cut it but have to say it.

Remember this isn't Helene

This isn't Charley

This isn't Ian.

This is Milton.

Yes, it's painfull as all get out, there's not much to say other than it's a heartbreaking 1-2 punch on the Florida West, Central Coast at landfall in a place where there is much destruction from Helene that hasn't even begun to clean up. This is Hurricane Season. It's why old timers in Florida call it The Mean Season.

Models do spin up another storm behind it, I don't want people to panic let's take this one at a time and the third one may not form. This week is all about Milton, misery on top of Helene. So sorry.

Reminder... bottom line above.

And don't focus on size right now.

Yes, small storms intensify fast.

Can shear down fast.

Also can change direction fast.

Like a sports car vs an 18 Wheeler.

Milton a red sports car....

Helene an 18 Wheeler.

Do what you gotta do!

Adding this Ps.

Mike mentioned it.

He's so right.

My words but he inspired it.

Ps.......know because so many are displaced from Helene & there are various construction, insurance adjusters & Orlando in the Cone IF you have to evacuate try and find a place to go now... maybe a friend to stay by inland as hotels are already most likely full ...hate to add that but it's a hard reality of a 2nd hit after Helene :(

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever