Invest 94L Has a Robust Circulation. Convection Trying to Keep Up With It. Models Short Term Move It West...Forms Close to Islands... Then ???? Stay Tuned.

Perspective is important.

50% in the 7 day. 10% in 2 day.

Models below show why we are talking on it.

Models are problematic.

So it bears watching.

First the models show it stays low, that's easily seen by watching Water Vapor Loop as high as to the North of it and just as an African Tropical Wave showed up in October so did the missing high Pressure in the Atlantic, go figure. Consistent right?

As it approaches the Islands the conditions are more favorable for development as shear should be lower (in theory) and the water is warmer and not as dry as the MDR has been. There are cold fronts moving down and it is possible it could get picked up by a cold front but it's just as possible it could continue West under any other ridges of high pressure departing cold front's supply. This is the long tracker the 2024 hurricane season denied many who originally thought we'd have lots of August and September African Wave Train hurricanes to track. Currently it's just an Invest, remember that and the area where it most likely forms has a ways to go. 

Moving at a fairly rapid clip.

Trying to hang onto that convection...

...near the center.

IF it had more convection as it looks better convection wise today than yesterday, I'd think this would be upgraded to a Tropical Depression as it has an incredibly tight circulation visible on both visible satellite imagery as well Earthnull. I get it's far out, but this is one impressive signature as you can see below.

Only fly in the ointment is that little......

...pimple like feature to the SSE.

Hmnnn

Let's move down the road.

Clearly present in blue and purple...

...is cold front and high pressure over the South.

New cold front moving thru Carolinas today.

Down in the SW Carib is colorful convection.

In the EPAC as well..

The CAG is healthy.

Note Bahamas has moisture.

How low does this new front go?

Much hangs on this down the road...

..and the next front!

Earthnull shows the CAG.

Bit on either side of Panama.

Again this is one geographic region.

Land bridge separates it.

But influences merge often.

Bottom line:

I will definitely say this Invest is bugging me and I can't just write it off because "hey it's October, what'a a tropical wave doing there this time of year?" as we began the season with a Cat 5 Hurricane making landfall on an island that barely ever gets a Cat 1 Hurricane as it's got a sort of "hurricane shadow" much the way Raleigh gets a "snow shadow" and we rarely get snow. So a June too soon... Tropical Wave barreled into the Islands intensifying into a Category 5 on July 1st. Obviously, 2024 isn't playing by the rules. And, the set up denies fast intensification therefore it gets forced to the West to develop close in and that usually means trouble for someone, T with a capital T as in Tropical Storm then a Hurricane.

Can Hispaniola break it up? Sure. But last few model runs show it sneaking around Hispaniola moving to the North of it ...though it would still (in theory) put some brakes on development as part of it's circulation would be overland. What if it misses Hispaniola? That could be a problem. It could be lifted and miss the Islands as it moves up into the Atlantic and Bermuda needs to watch. Or.........it's a problem for South Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba. Any system that misses the Islands and moves up and over the Islands the way your typical September hurricane might do would develop over the warm waters in The Bahamas or over the Gulfstream or the Florida Straits and well you get the picture.

Again this all comes down to watching the front "ye older watch the front set up" and as it's October we do have cold fronts! If the front is deep it could just spin into the Gulf of Mexico or through the Caribbean into Central America. If the front is strong enough to lift it but not grab it and pull it up the East Coast... it could get tricky, much like the rest of it's 2024 Hurricane Siblings.

Ps yes I said "up the East Coast" and no nothing is screaming it'll do that but I cannot take that off the table.

So everyone's in it.

And IF anything formed from the CAG then that could impact future steering currents.

Stay tuned... Hurricane Season is far from over.

Lots of time to watch and everyone will be watcing.

For what it's worth there's the whole Atlantic.

You can see the little dip near the Carolinas

Ample cold fronts currently.

Yes I see the SW Carib.

Does the NHC see it?

Stay tuned.

Much Love

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.

Which particular harbor will 94L want...

...to travel to??

Time will tell.............