Hurricane Harbor: Will Nadine Form ? If So Where? Snow Fell Last Night in MTNS NC...PPL Sleeping in Tents and Their Belongings Strewn on Muddy Ground.

Let's start with the models.

Sort of basic. Westbound.

Some show it dying off...

..others show it doing Hispaniola.

See the one over Cuba??

Could be a curve ball down the road.

Ensemble models below:

Ye Olde Ensemble Models.

Always trying to please.

Some move towards the CAG system.

Some halt and fly off to NE.

94L been around a long time.

Many good Mets feel she's been a TD.

I can't totally argue that...

Looking at the radar ...

...there's a lil fly in the ointment.

That front lingering across S FL

Content Weather shows the front.

Blue is the front.

Blue skies, fresh air.

Stops and hangs over Central FL

The front is forecast to move thru S FL

and then ...move back up again.

See the kriss kross wind patterns below.

Clouds in GOM moving East...

I'm curious how this impacts 94L

IF 94L makes it here

and set up is the same.

Front digging down over East Coast.

94L under a ULL to it's N

(like a mini black fake Cane)

CAG has moisture.

Florida Straits

Models from windy.com show a traffic jam.

Moisture from CAG feeds up into FL Straigs

94L heads W towards that moisture.

But then.......

CAG links up, grabs moisture runs West.

94L gets grabbed and pulled back to the NE

EURO and ICON similar.

Truth is you can't ignore the reality that it's going to be harder and harder for a tropical system to spin into a nasty hurricane any time soon. Not to say something can't happen, but currently the tropics look more like early November vs a typical Mid October set up.

That's a strong signature.

Yes, moisture in Carib S of High Pressure.

Could turn coal into a diamond.

November tracks!!

I'm trying to be extremely focused and factual here today as I'll be away for the next few days and this will be the last thing I say about 94L and it's friend in the CAG ...as well as the Cold Front. This pattern is more like a November one and all we know for sure if we have a stubborn Invest that's come a long way. Looked better a few days ago but it's still going strong.

IR above, Visible below.

Still nice structure.

Convection in the middle.

Why this isn't a TD I don't know.

Not every TD has to become a hurricane.

So keep paying attention to any possible area that could develop as we are not yet done with October and we are not yet closed for tropical development! That simple. Can't rule it out, but with every day that passes and every cold front that drives down it's that much harder to get a hurricane going. But totally possible, not impossible.

I'll be offline until Saturday evening, things to do and there are plenty of people online who will weigh in with valuable thoughts! Stay well, stay safe and ever stop giving money or supplies to charities that are helping those in need in Florida and up in the Carolinas where snow fell onto muddy ground, littered with debris that used to be important part of the lives of those who died and those who survived with nothing else as their homes are gone or barely habitable.

We have a frost alert tonight in this neck of the woods. Out West there are survivors sleeping in tents and they could use supplies, winter clothing, blankets... endless list so find something and some way you can help, please.