Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, November 22, 2021

Thanksgiving Week! Hurricane Season Over... If You Were NOT Impacted This Year... Be Thankful! Why is Chanukah SOOO Early This Year??


This is an excellent collage from Twitter.
Larry, Sam, Ida, Grace stand out from the pack...
...lots of oddly shaped, short lived storms.

Yet, the multiple systems that tracked along the Eastern Seaboard creating flooding in the same places took a huge toll on many far from the tropical, beachy coastlines we usually think of when we think of Hurricane damages.  The Mid Atlantic, NY/NJ and New England dealt with violent remnants from tropical storms that while not dangerous looking on satellite imagery can wreak havoc at high latitudes.

A busy season, yet many stayed far out at sea while others cris crossed their way across the Northeast as a trough hung out there attracting each system one by one, flood by flood with over 100 people killed from Ida's exit strategy.

As for me I'm going "home" to Florida, though these days Carolina feels like "home" as well. This weekend I'll watch the Dolphins play my Carolina Panthers. Life gets complicated when you move around the country. I've lived in New York City where I attended school, LA in the 80s when I lived in West Hollywood just off of Melrose  Avenue (4 California football teams) and now Raleigh where I'm currently writing this blog. I actually watched most of the first LA Raiders Game when I was in labor telling the nurses NOT to turn the TV off... I think I missed the end but it's a LA memory.  I really HATE packing but I love traveling. I need a place in Miami where I can leave most of my more summery clothes for the rest of the year but I do love Autumn and Winter in North Carolina.

Also part of the trip is in Florida and another part will be where it will be way colder so there's multiple outfits for various weather.  

A cold front is pushing down towards Florida.
Currently over the Carolinas.
Cold, cold air descending rapidly.

Are you traveling this Thanksgiving?

Very frontal today....
Lined up like planes landing at MIA....

If  you're traveling North of Florida...
Take a coat with you ...
..and that includes the Florida Panhandle.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving.
I hope you get  your favorite desserts!
Mine are Pumpkin and Pecan Pie.
Maybe some Guava something in Miami...whic

I'll update at some point.
But I'm focused on traveling today.

2021 Hurricane Season is in the rear view mirror.
Meteorological Winter arrives next week.

Are you ready?
Because I have Thanksgiving Thursday.
Friday/Saturday Shabbos at my son's house.
Sunday a birthday party for my 4 year old grandson.
Sunday Night Chanukah ...

Send help....................
......nah seriously I'm happy.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps Thanksgiving has always been a difficult time for me. My family rarely had a big meal, and when there was one there was the regular fighting between my two younger brothers and my mother upset about something my Aunt said and very worried the neighbors didn't see anyone fighting. Not sure why she had a fear of this as we were fairly boring and who cares really? But she cared. She didn't care for turkey referring to it as a "big diry old bird" so my father would take me out to some cafeteria within a day or so of Thanksgiving and we'd get a traditional dinner with his "don't tell your mother" and yes at some point she'd relent though it never was like it was in the movies.  When I was little my Aunt made an awesome meal complete with little wax pilgrims and turkeys my Uncle and I would set the table with and those were good days, my uncle died young. 

I had a best friend who died on Thanksgiving and I got the phone call just as my sister-in-law was serving dessert. An annoying friend of hers watched my face trying to discern what was wrong while I made an excuse to run out to meet my other best friend while we sat crying and sipping Diet Coke and BBQ potato chips in the parking lot of the neighborhood bodega that used to be run by the Colombian guy but ended up being run by a sweet Lebanese guy. 

Way too much information here but whose reading except my closest friends? The year before my friend who died on Thanksgiving had an argument how he HAD TO TAKE FLOWERS to his sister's house. He said she wouldn't care and he was right as she took the flowers, said thanks and "dropped them in the garbage" as I guess her florist had already done the floral arrangements for her... so he got to tell me "I told you so" one last time..........and I miss him, every day not just Thanksgiving but yeah that happened.  A year later I made a big meal at my house decorated Luau style (not the turkey just the table and why I don't know) and my soon to be husband was there with the whole crew meaning my kids and an assorted 5 to 10 other kids I didn't birth who call me "Ma" or "Mom" and sometimes Bobbi.

Is Thanksgiving fun for you? Or does Thanksgiving bring up family angst?
I don't know but I do know when I saw this movie in the theater I could not stop laughing.
Way back when we didn't have cell phones that could put the sister's shower on Facebook Live or YouTube..and when parents could actually meet us at the gate.......oh my God... and other than I was never fired I could really relate.

So Happy Thanksgiving... say goodbye to the hurricane season and hello to winter. These days I don't go offline at the end of hurricane season as someone resolved that problem and so here I am on Twitter and Facebook and Instagram and where ever we migrate from one social network to another.

Find something to be thankful for and if you can't think of anything............just fake it :)

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Non Tropical Moisture for Florida, Waiting on Cold Fronts... A Look Back at 2021 Hurricane Season & Towards a Parade of Winter Fronts Moving Getting Ready to March. Hurricane Season Ends, Early Winter in the Wings

There's rain on the way for Florida today and tomorrow. A non-tropical area of moisture is oozing it's away across the peninsular waiting to be picked up by an approaching front. 

The NHC weighs in below.

Why are we not more excited?
Because we are in a frontal pattern.
Fronts on the march!!

We are marching into Winter.
Looking back at the 2021 Hurricane Season

It's odd that all November we have been watching winter models as if it's early December and yet according to the calendar we are still in Hurricane Season and knee deep in fallen leaves or watching football depending on where we live and or doing both! In the Carolinas we have had severe, strong cold fronts that actually gave us frost and freeze warnings. Rather than look down to our Southwest for a tropical Caribbean threat we are watching  the atmosphereric rivers in Alaska and Canada. 

It's that time of year. In truth the hurricane season has been over de facto for quite a while, in fact it seems so far behind us in the distance that it almost seems like last year's weather news. And, yet there are areas that are still cleaning up and nothing is totally normal. That's what hurricanes really do.... they shake up our sense of normal. The landscape changes suddenly like in a movie with great cinematography as storm clouds roll in and things blow away in the wind. People pray for their lives and for their home, their car and their neighbors and wince when they hear the broken groan of a tree crashing down somewhere in the dark of the stormy night.  In the daytime they peer out unboarded up windows or venture out when the wind calms briefly to see which tree landed and what it wrapped itself around praying no one was killed. 

Cars and trees can be replaced. People we love cannot be replaced. Hurricane Season reminds us that one day there's a storm with it's name written just for us. Kids grow up and talk on Hurricane Donna or Hurricane Camille or Hurricane Andrew or Hurricane Hugo that's still remembered for cutting a path through Charleston all the way to Charlotte far inland; Raleigh remembers Hazel and Fran that also took the "A Train" far inland to Raleigh and Hilsborough and beyond.  And, the 2021 Hurricane Seasons reminded us that horrific storm damage happens not just upon landfall, nor does it just creatiing inland flooding up river but that as Camille and Ida both did they created horrific havoc and a crazy high death toll as they made their exit off the stage but not onto the stage; it's a lesson we should not forget ever. 

Ida's classic  C track yet deaths were higher in NY and NJ
than Louisiana. 
Go figure.
This should be the lesson of the 2021 Hurricane Season. You can read the article linked here that enumerates all the places from Venezuela in South America to places in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast that suffered casualties from Ida not just landfal in Louisiana. At least 115 people died from Ida and I've seen several different totals so I'll let you read the report above and we will wait to see what the NHC writes up in their post season evaluation.

As for our ready to roll Winter...what will it really bring us? You know there is a game children play during Chanukah, they spin a draidel that looks like a top with letters on 4 different sides. As it wobbles around as it slows down after spinning fast and it lands on one specific letter. Yes it's a gambling game of sorts and yet our relationship with weather be it hurricane season or winter is always a gamble. 

Do I put the shutters up?
Do we evacuate?
Should I salt the driveway?
Do I need to buy milk, eggs and bread? (This is specifically big in the Carolinas...)
Do we cancel school for the storm?

So many intangibles and until it actually evolves and unravels we really do not know for sure while the GFS EURO and all the other models show us various tracks for snow storms.

Miller A
Miller B
Miller C (seriously there's a C option?)
There are actually a lot of "Miller Storm" scenarios that are to winter what the Lushine Line is to Hurricane Season.

Before the parade passes by, it has an area where the parade sets up and waits to begin it's marching movement down the assigned track. And the storms, fronts and dips and dives of the atmosphere move around Planet Earth like some lava lamp or carousel at a carnival, a winter carnival I may add.

7 troughs around the Northern Hemisphere in the mid latitude is what he is pointing out. As we move deeper into December and oh my gosh January those begin to dive deeper down, sharper and there's a chance of a snow storm or an ice storm or a blizzard. Or there's a chance the winter parade passes you by and you end up making French Toast with all that milk, eggs and bread! Unfortnately, from my perspective, french toast is way too big a diet after most of our winter weather threats here in the Carolinas. But once in a while.... 
once in a while........we get a winter storm to remember.

This 2021 Hurricane Ida is the hurricane to remember, whereas the beautiful ocean spinners of Sam and Larry are merely an asterisk to our memories. Elsa does get a prize for a great name and doing her share of damage. The pattern was set up early on this season for where US landfalling Hurricanes would go and what they would do as they progressed towards the NE and flooding as Elsa did and Fred followed, before Ida produced and directed a disaster movie in real time in real life for New York City.

What will our pattern be this winter?
This is where our focus is on November 17th!

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps Last night we went out to a meeting, get together at Tobacco Road in Raleigh. It's a great bar, restaurant, hang out and has pretty lights strung at night for anyone who wishes to eat outside. It was fun, it was a soft Autumn night with just a drop of chill in the air. I threw a flannel plaid shirt over my black tee shirt and enjoyed a good Imperial Porter. Note they only put Porters on the menu in the Autumn and Winter here so that was good as I prefer malty beers to hoppy IPAs and I gave up Miller Lite a long time ago. I hope you get a chance to get out and enjoy life before the parade passes you by. Soon we will hunker down for frigid cold fronts in this neck of the wood and that's what I do love about this neck of the woods as I love Winter. I do love Miami, but after Thanksgiving I'm focused on Winter and Hurricane Season is pretty much in the rear view mirrow; yesterday's parade so to speak ;) 

NC is a beer state with breweries on almost every street downtown ... I leaned a lot about beer here, what I like and what I do not and I prefer fruit dipped in chocolate not in my beer! 

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Invest 96L - The Yellow Cat Circle Came Back........Now Orange 50/50. Is the N Atlantic the New MDR? Could This Be Adria??


This is the Water Vapor Image Currently.
You can see the nice round shape...
...of what is back again.
Now Invest 96L

Pretty blue WV Image.
NHC Image below.

And the always wonderful Mimic!

Wow things know how to twist in the N ATL!

The prognosis for this new Invest is generally out to sea, though some models indicate it could be a slow, loopy journey but cold fronts are all the rage these days and as you can see by the angle in all the satellite loops of motion from 8 PM to 2 PM we seem to be safe. There is a bit of convection down in the Caribbean but you can watch that in real time with the link below. Note how the cold, blue, dry air is pushing the convection down, down and off a bit to the West.

I never say never when it comes to the Hurricane Season even though it's nearing the end of the road for the official season that ends on November 30th which is a Tuesday this year! But tropics can often throw us odd oddballs, screwballs whatever they call them in baseball. But generally we are talking academically about the tropics and people are less interested in North Atlantic storms out at sea than they are EPAC storms. So not going long here. 

Name would be ADRIA!

Know it's there.
Know the NHC likes it again. 
It has the potential and it could get a name.
But all the same.........
...things are winding down and fading away in the tropics.

When storm chasers wish for winter storms not hurricanes, you pretty much know we are in that transitional time of year.

Have a great day and I'll update if anything happens sooner rather than later.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

80s were so much fun ....
...especially in LA!

Monday, November 08, 2021

Tropical Thoughts on Monday Night... Wanda Gone... Incredible Shrinking Yellow Circle 0% - Thoughts on 2021 Hurricane Season & Ida a Name That Will Be Retired!


Currently, the NHC is monitoring the area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic yet they have lowered it's chances down to zero. It's like the incredible shrinking yellow circle! Yes, the Hurricane Season does seem to be fading away, however until it's over the NHC will continue monitoring the Atlantic and the NWS will continue monitoring the weather be it winter weather or severe weather. 

I don't like to talk in November beyond November. I'm not going to discuss whether or not La Nina is going to fade away fast or slow. I'm not going to discuss when El Nino will or won't appear. I can show you two different graphics explaining how two different scenarioes can play out. I'm not into speculation unless it has an imminent concern. For the most part, the 2021 Hurricane Season is pretty much in the rear view mirror. We got lucky beyond words that Larry and Sam stayed out at sea and did not do Irma and Maria tracks over land. Ida, sadly, created enough drama and destruction at landfall and pathetically again as she left land and made her move back out over the water. New York City, and it's neighboring suburbs will not forget Ida for a long, long time. And, it's impact across the Mid-Atlantic to New England was something out of a disaster movie. We're used to what happens at landfall, but the dangers of a hurricane far inland in the Northern Latitudes after it is no longer a "hurricane" but it's still an entity to contend with his often forgotten.

Mention to anyone Hurricane Camille and they will think of Gulfport, Waveland and Pass Christian and yet it left it's mark forever on Virginia that suffered the sort of flooding that some places in Brooklyn felt from Ida.

History repeats. Remember that!

Above is Ida... 

The death toll rose and kept rising for days as the dead bodies swept away in a flash flood were found across the NJ and NY far from Ida's landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi. Flash flooding really is the worst. 

So I won't be sad to see this hurricane season end, and yes I love winter weather so living in North Carolina I get both hurricanes and the possibility of a winter storm. I'm not going to say we won't see another named storm, but the chance of it making a significant landfall is getting slimmer and slimmer as every day passes.

Wanda... wandered away.  Sorry for any typos regarding Wilma vs Wanda somewhere. I type way too fast and proofing hasn't been easy as I've been trying to nail down the right Rx for my eyeglasses. It's been a while since I changed the prescription and I'm not sure they have it right but we will see soon enough. Myfather left me his astigmatism and it's annoying when I do change glasses, luckily not during the middle of the hurricane season so I've been laying low a bit offline more than online. But, got a new pair the other day and this seems good. Time will tell.

I'm going to go down to Florida in the not so distant future and I plan on spending some time at the beach, by the water and hanging out with my kids and the family. I'm thankful for all of them and all of you. And, thankful that Sam and Larry kept their wild, strong, immense hurricane force winds out at sea. Ida will be retired so that's the last Hurricane Ida you'll see... one for the books. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams... 
..... or whatever dreams you wish to dream!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.. 

Ps... I want a real cortadito and other Miami delights! Sorry for any typos, it's late and I'm going to sleep!

Sunday, November 07, 2021

Coastal Storm Flooding Parts of the Coast, Some Roads Closed... Needed Rain Inland - NHC Likes Upgrading AFTER They Leave Land... New Yellow Circle Now... TWC or Weather Nation? Use the Remote... Like I do.


Charleston dealing with quite the coastal low.
Not designatred by the NHC in any way.
Then again they didn't name it Wilma....
...til it was only an issue for the shipping lines.

Amazes me that the two best storms we have had were basically ignored yet several crappy "shortie" tropical storms that didn't last more than a day or so were covered in depth by TWC and I suppose that's the glory of having a name. If it doesn't have a name, it's less important; not the best logic and yes the NWS does a kick ass job but they do not get the attention the NHC does nor TWC gets when a storm is making landfall.  Shame Cantore didn't get to go to St. Augustine for this one or any of TWC crew as it was a big storm and graphically very visual and beautiful for people who love weather and storms. 

Big signature.
It's also funneling cold air South. (Thanks!)

Satellite imagery is impressive too..

Shield of weather hitting the coast with bands....
closed center devoid of real weather but tightly wound.
We've named way uglier storms this year.

Wrote the above in the morning/.
Went to the Farmers Market.
Carolina Panthers Lost.
Came home and now there's a Yellow Circle.
Rest of blog written after shopping... 

Highway closures.... 

Now the NHC is putting up a yellow circle.
As was obviously the plan...

Wanda in fact wandered a long ways across the Atlantic.
After doing NE it came together enough for upgrade.

Now we have our new Yellow Circle...

Does it matter? 
Yes, no... maybe.
Should have put the yellow circle up earlier.
In my opinion many sites indicated it was there.. 
(you know the ole purple blotch site I use)

I don't know really what to say that would make any difference, I don't understand weather channels sometimes. The "coastal low" also known as "offshore low" or "Carolina Low" because it has no real name is swirling off the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia. Wild weather along the coast from St. Augustine to the Outer Banks and every popular city in between such as Savannah and Charleston is dealing with photogenic and wild visuals yet no one is there to film them. Everyone knows I love TWC but honestly I turned it off today and put on Weather Nation on Roku which actually was showing good video people were sending in and discussing the wild, strong storm that does not have a name and apparently wasn't worth sending people to cover on Sunday from TWC.  Again this storm is impacting many large coastal cities, I'm less interested in snow up in the mountains out west then something impacting a large population. I can put on videos on YouTube to gaze at early winter snow falling.

I still love TWC but I mute most of their incessantly annoying "how does this work" segments that are better covered by Ted Talks with less repetitive studio graphics and more emphasis on weather. One thing I used to love about them is that they didn't dumb down the weather to the general audience, even if the on air mets joked around often, they really delivered the weather, live in real time. I miss that. Weather Nation is almost like watching old school TWC .. great satelite images, good radar, meteorological discussion, video from people who send in happening weather in real time and the music is light and interesting and best of all NO AGENDA. I'm a news addict so I spend most my day shuffling between CNN, FOX and MSNBC (on occasion) so when I watch the WEATHER channel I just want weather. 

I. Just. Want. Weather.

In today's lingo online. Tell me you are annoyed without telling me?

In truth that is what the remote is for....... I watch TWC, I swtich to Weather Nation (they both have their strengths but if wweather happens on the weekend it seems TWC rarely covers it live. I'm not interested in canned shows that repeat too often when I could be getting live weather coverage. I also have Spectrum News in NC that does an amazing job of covering our weather and the wider spectrum every ten minutes. 

I'm loving the cooler weather and even pulled the fake fireplace out of the closet and set it up in the bedroom. It's almost as good as the fireplace videos from YouTube my daughter sends me.  I love winter and the change of the seasons and living in the Carolinas you really get to enjoy the change of the seasons and we get all food crazy with what local produce is at it's prime. My maple tree is beginning to turn, but the tops of the trees are swaying when the wind picks up from gusts from the coastal storm. 

So that's it. I'm soooo ready for winter. When does it really begin?

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps this cracked me up so much I could not stop laughing, had to totally redo my make up... apparently the eyeliner and mascara was not that waterproof... Thor posted it online and ironically after I had just switched from TWC coverage of not breaking weather events during a storm... this somehow totally hit the spot. Enjoy....  funniest thing I've seen since WKRP Turkey Drop...

Friday, November 05, 2021

NWS Works Hard to Nail Down the Forecast, But Mother Nature Always Gets the Final Vote in Real Time. Models Change With the Coastal Low. King Tide Brings Flooding to the Low Country.


My brother texted me this morning from Miami.
He said "it looks like a scratch off ticket"
Low but not tropical.

But it's producing weather.....
...and headaches for the NHC.
In Miami during KING TIDE.... it floods.
If there's a storm it really floods.
Usually it's a late season tropical storm.
But this is just our no name stormy mess.

I grew up near there.... give or take.
It wasn't as densely populated.
It's a beautiful big metropolis.... the edge of the bay along the river.
King Tides bring the river and the bay up a bit.
Every. Single. Year.
King Tides.

But this is a large coastal isue......
..what happens there is moving up the coast.

I'm going to use this map to explain things.

Note where I95 here on the map.
See how far West Greensboro is......
... now Greensboro is supposed to get some.
Forecasts often change in real time.
So always pay attention to changes in the forecats.
Nothing is set in stone.

In North Carolina I-95 divides our BBQ sauce, it divides us in many ways and is usually used in meteorological forecasts as what happens "Down East" usually stays down East and OBX and Wilmington gets weather that the rest of the state does not get. inches up towards the Sandhills and on rare occaisions they add the area to the East of I95 in the general Raleigh forecast as having higher chances of rain and wind; be it hurricane or snow storm Raleigh is always on the edge of some line.  

Forecasts change in real time.
This morning from Raleigh indicates the chanes.

Words matter.
"these clouds were expected to be retreating south, but"

"ECMWF has oscilliated back and forth"

Yesterday the models seemed to imply that the real issue had changed from the previous model run and they was a consensus on "Further East" and offshore. I woke up this morning, looked at the water vapor loop and thought "oops" because it was obvious that the non tropical Low we have been talking about is setting up the way the earlier models implied and weather was going to be onshore not offshore in this neck of the woods.

This is why you never go by what you heard regarding a model several days out or think a forecast on air or online is set in stone, because in the end Mother Nature gets the final vote. good large water vapor loop allows you to move around between North Carolina and Miami, you can even move over and look at Texas or New England... love it.

South Carolina/Charleston area and all the Low Country will have flooding problems. Georgia and especially the area around St. Marys down to St. Johns River in Jacksonville, Florida. Again that whole area is one general meteorological/geographic area so google the Georgia Bight.

The truth is the best way to get a good forecast is to follow people who cover your own region and have your own back. Chick in North Carolina is like that he is fun to follow and as accurate as you can get. In Miami I watch Phil Ferro and as for graphics no one is better than Brian McNoldy, if you would have read his tweet on November 2nd you'd know what would be happening this morning on November 5th. 

Oh Wanda is wandering and the NHC is letting the NWS cover the Coastal Low that will impact our weather at the worst time when our tides are highest. Always follow your local National Weather Service they do the best they can do give you a heads up down the road and when things change they update their forecast because they know.... forecasts are not carved in stone and Mother Nature gets the final vote in real time!

Often this happens because we have a wandering tropical depression or storm, but Mother Nature will take any old Low it can to drive the weather the way she wants.......  New Moon, King Tide one way or the other we get a significant storm of some kind. Note warnings from NWS Charleston SC below!

It was 36 where I live this morning.
I'm thrilled.
But do have to figure out what to wear.
So beware the storm.
Have a good day.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Dress accordingly :)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Thursday, November 04, 2021

Baby It's Cold Outside......... in Raleigh.......... A Non-Tropical Coastal Low Will Cross Florida and POP Up Off the Carolina Coast. Wanda is Wandering. How Cold Will Next Week Get?


I watched Mike this morning on YouTube way after he got done talking on old Chili and his love of She Crab Soup, so if you are wondering what to get him for Christmas... if you have a source for his favorite soup - now you know what you can get him! I don't cook it personally, but it's a big favorite in the Carolinas.   What's also big in the Carolinas today is weather, and our weather feels a bit more like winter than Autumn but I'll take it. We aren't expected to get out of the 40s today so if that verifies I don't see why all the talk on the next cold system coming through and down into the South is over blown as it's pretty cool out there today.

I wokd up early this morning, I didn't go back to sleep and I remembered we were turning the clock back this weekend so I figured I'd get dressed ane enjoy an early morning walk at sunrise. There wasn't much color this morning as a multi-level, layered sky filled with clouds and a bite in the air that felt more like Winter than Autumn. I love it. I'm that child that kept checking the temperature when a cold front made it  into South Florida every half hour to see how low it would go temperature wise. I'm still like that. It was actually 44 degrees when I went outside but dropped down lower while out there. Truth in reporting is important (Journalism 101) so I had to double check and it had dropped down to 43. My fingers felt cold. I smiled. There's a reason I stayed up North here in North Carolina, that thinks it's all Southern but it's got the name North in it so... know it can get pretty cold here if the winter delivers. 

As for the tropics.......
... nothing going on except Wanda.
Wanda the wanderer.
Forming over land........
...slamming the coast with strong winds.
NHC ignored it until it got further out at sea...
It's whole trek is shown below here.

Click on that. It's kind of crazy.
Like a child playing with an Etch N Sketch.
I think I spelled that right.
I had a cousin who loved to play with his....
...he'd shake it, break it and ... 
My Aunt would say "told you not to do that!"
We had fun :)

You must be wondering on that old yellow Invest?
Or maybe you gave up on the tropics.

It just became a depression in the Epac!
All our tropical waves seeded the Epac.
They stayed low and went Westbound!

I'm just going to throw this out here because not sure if anyone is reading it as it's quiet and I'm tired of people .. meteorologists... waxing poetic on the strength of the hurricane season "way late into the season" due to a wide array of reasons that sounded perfectly logical in any other year but none of them panned out. I mean NONE OF THEM PANNED OUT. And ever bored news service kept posting them as if they were from the bible or whatever you hold as holy. It was already obvious that many areas normally active were misplaced this year and nothing was working the way it normall does. However, from the MJO to the heraled La Nina and many other reasons in between everyone promised (based on modeling) a very active hurricane season going deep into November.  Hey we could get a November storm, it does happen especially in odd years but no it has not been busy late into this season. We seem to have gotten a lucky break so hope you all enjoyed it because winter does look, currently, to be busy.

The problem with models is we buy into the crazy scenarios and the ones that verify our wishes for epic snow falls or hurricanes that do a Fujiwhara dance.  Usually the epic snow falls don't verify, though sometimes they do, and often the Fujiwhara is more a yawn and only verifies if you blur your eyes and pretend you see it!

I say this in the summer when looking at tropical waves and I say this in the winter when looking at Polar Vortexes showing up on long range models. You watch the models, you check back on the next run and you wait to see what patterns are verfiying in real time on current satellite imagery. You check the water vapor loop and you watch Alaska to see what may or may not move Eastward later in the forecast period. 

Nuff said on that... 
The predictions for a cold week in Raleigh verified! Yay! So wearing my warm red flannel pajamas that I got from you know where and have socks on and smiling. The outside air is "air conditioned" and I may actually take the little fake fireplace space heater down and set it up for the next colder front that verifies.

That's my crystal ball.
If i can see it will verify here......
... I may fall in love with that model run!

A wunderground product above..
Look at those blues... 
Baby, it's cold outside :)

Check back tomorrow........
... will see if anything has changed.

It's possible the NHC could blink on the system that forms in the Gulf of Mexico and crosses Florida bringing with it windy, wet weather but I don't think so. But it's hard to second guess them these days so keep watching.

Long loop but a good one! Use it can turn the world around!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

It's an original but as we are moving into Chocolate Mint Mocah Fraps from Pumpkin Spice Latte... this is my baby brother's favorite singer... and he does love this rendition.

The problem with fronts that make it down to Florida is they tend to stall out and sometimes a low pressure system at the bottom end of the front rides said front across Florida and wraps up into a bit of a coastal low off the Carolinas. Some years they become tropical possibilities, but this year it's just pretty much a windy, rainy day for the Carolinas at the coast. Originally there was talk it would form closer to the coast creating a messier scenario but currently models show it more offshore with less wind and less rain.  Either way it will bring weather even if it doesn't have any kind of name.

Tuesday, November 02, 2021

Wanda. Yellow Circle Seeds an EPAC Storm. Kind of the Story of the Year in the SW Caribbean


The hard to see red symbol is Wanda, mixed into that whole cloud mess on the other side of the ocean. It's also kind of hard to notice the yellow on the edge of a beach abiout to jump into the Eastern Pacific that is at 0% chances in the Atlantic.

But if you move on over to the Eastern Pacific part of the NHC Main Pages you will see our little X is healthier and is being given 30% chances of development in there. Actually another yellow circle pops up there on the 5 day as seen below.

This has really been the story of the year on many levels and will be researched by many to see why the East Pacific received so many of the low, westbound waves that normally potentially dangerous SW Caribbean  storms that gave them a longer season than normal. And, when I say that I mean normally as the Atlantic goes into high gear the East Pac slows down, there's a normal ebb and flow of energy and yet this year the seedlings for the dangerous SW Caribbean Storms all slid across the isthmus into the Pacific. 

In general the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was either STORMY WILD or soooo slow. It had a sputtering sort of nature where everything formed in groups and you can see that by the graphic above. June and early July were busy, whereas later in July and August it was not. Late August and September were busy, though many were "shorties" that barely lasted yet did pump up the number of actual storms we had even if most of you cannot remember their name. Since the beginning of August it's been quiet.  Note if you take away all the blue dots and only look at the orange dashes you'll see we really didn't have such a busy season. It's really a matter of prespective. Quality over quantity and in this case we lucked out as Larry and his friend Sam both stayed out in the Atlantic putting on a colorful show on the satelitte imagery but not thrashing our beaches or drowning out cities so for that we are grateful.  It reminds me a lot of how morse code works, dot, dot, dot, dash, dot, dot ...well you get that if you ever learned Morse Code which I did but I do not really remember; a cute neighbor boy was involved who wanted to ran cables from our houses to each other so we could "talk" when we were young. (He was probably a boy scout now that I think about it)

I digress... because there really isn't much to talk about. If I go to I'm prone to watch the images for cold weather and who is going to get some snow.

Why does the blue (really cold air)
stop at the Mason Dixie?
Kentucky gets it but not Tennessee?
Just odd things always amaze me on graphics like this.

But winter is coming.
Tropical storms are not.

So have a great day.
Malls have Christmas decorations up...
.... no real crowds where I live.
But the msuic is nice.

TJ Maxx is a winter wonderful.
Pink Flamingoes are in storage.

It's the sign of the times!!

Not proofing........
....I have a headache.
Wish I was in Key West this morning!
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Where are you spending the holidays? 
Thanksgiving blends into Chanukah (early) this year.
Christmas... flows into New Years Eve.
I know... we haven't even eaten turkey yet for Thanksgiving.
2021 has been on Zoom Zoom do you have a clue?

Christmas Island - Jimmy Buffett.wmv By the way the locals used to call the small island to the West of Key West, but they developed it and renamed it Sunset Island. But it's really a place...........there's also another one, we have lots of names locals use for things down on the rock. 

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