Tropics on Hold With Possibilities. Snow in Forecast Later NOT Sooner. Good Weather Days. Political Wars in NC for Senate Race .. Endless Commercials.

That's the zone where something "could" develop.

Or maybe even use the word "should" develop?

Would something develop it would be there!

In the moisture train.

South of the border line of high pressure.

This loop immediately reminds of the song below:

Yah...

Though these days it should be TV.

So smart of the Millenials to give up TV.

Politics is rough this year.

And I don't mean the Presidential Race...

In NC the Senate Race between Ross and Burr.. Ewww

I mean they have more commercials on than T or H....

Why am I talking politics?

Cause when in Carolina I love watching this channel.

It's more like I leave it on for background noise.

Note Millenials never need background noise.

That's what Spotify is for... 

Anyway I look up when they do weather.

EVERY TEN MINUTES...

They do good weather especially during breaking weather.

Of course it's October so we have no weather here now.

So I actually watched 4 commercials BACK TO BACK

One explained why Burr was BAD.

The next explained why Ross Lied.

Then a Ross Commercial saying Burr LIED

Then Burr's wife defended her husband.

She did a nice job...

Lord it's worse than listening to Euro VS GFS discussion.

Oh my goodness... 

Make it stop.

Burr is a Republican. 

Confusing would be easier if Ross was..

But I'm an Indepedent.

I may do a write in for NOGAPS

Just kidding.

But seriously point here is there is no weather today.

Just endless political he said ..she said.

It's not like most of us haven't decided.

Why can't we just make this shorter.

It's gone on longer than the 2016 Hurricane Season.

Biggest winner in 2016 is Kellyanne Conway.

She's got her on fake character on Saturday Night Live.

I know Hilary supporters who love her.

They don't agree but they love to hear her talk.

She's become fascinating. Trump who?

And People wonder WHY did he pick Pence not her?

Her hair looks much better these days.

Gotta love a girl who can talk...

..but it is annoying when people want you to say something.

And there really isn't anything to say.

But Kellyanne makes it fun in that way...

..that you forget what she's saying.

Fun to watch. Bubbly, smart.

So that said.

I'm taking a day off from the tropics.

As the tropics seem to have taken a day off from me :(

Those are the areas to watch.

SOME MODELS... show a lowering of pressures.

Will that become a tropical system or . . .

Well I will say this about that.

There has been rumors of Mid Atlantic Snowflakes.

Rumors are rumors.

Silly long range forecasts for NY.

50s 40s.

I'm wearing the Teal chiffon and not worrying on weather.

That's what coats are made for ...correct?

News... deer and jelly fish stories. Right...

And they are still showing me gowns.

Red one is cute but noooo don't think sooo.

I have a gown for that event already.

Hanging in the closet...

NY is a good two weeks away...

In Carolina today :)

It's cool going up to warm.

Blue skies. No clouds. Sunshine.

Going to my happy place today...

A small sliver of a chance that something develops.

In the Gulf of Mexico when strong winds die down.

And... or maybe... in the Atlantic North of PR.

Those favorite places late season storms form.

Spoiler alert they go ENEish..

My advice is forget about it today.

Enjoy the weather.

Smile.

Be happy like a Millenial.

Put on Netflix

Check all news stories on Buzz Feed.

Run them through Snopes.

Vote. Take a Selfie.

Do Snapchat.

Then move on...

Love you all.

Thanks for your interaction on Twitter...

..and elsewhere.

Have a Happy Day.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Just be happy ....

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/entertainthis/2016/10/27/

justin-timberlakes-learned-his-lesson-about-voting-selfies/92821638/

Oh and don't take a selfie voting in Tennessee..

Apparently it's against the law ????

Where you are wondering is it not allowed?

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/which-states-

allow-voters-snap-ballot-box-selfies-n673376

My kids all send me selfies in Florida.

Are they gonna take people's phones away now?

Seriously???

Won't say what Hashtag they put up but...

it's got 10 characters after the # 

It will all be over soon.... one way or the other.

Just be Happy...

Watching 0% Yellow Circle in Caribbean . . . Watching Winter Maps Go Up on Spaghetti Models. Vote... Enjoy Nice Weather While You Got It. Pumpkin Spice Latte

Not much into the October Surprise Concept here..

Zero percent is zero percent.

0%

NHC way of saying "Yes we see it"

Strong upper level winds inhibiting development.

Still we watch... 

Going to keep this sweet and simple today.

Note above areas in the Caribbean and Atlantic are highlighted.

It's not over til it's over.

But as Mike has put up his now Winter Maps.

It's almost over . . .

http://spaghettimodels.com/

I know because I've been waiting to see if he did or not.

And this is why ...

It's snowed.

This is the picture everyone takes.

It's their deck covered in snow.

Means their summer is over.

In truth it's Autumn across most of America.

Autumn breaks all geographic lines.

In Miami people are sipping Pumpkin Spice Latte.

So just saying.

Weather is beautiful in much of the country.

Few watches or warnings.

So go out and vote!

Vote early.

Or be conventional and wait til Election Day.

Go out, enjoy the weather.

In most of the country it's going down hill from here.

Snow will descend at some point.

Cold bitter winds from the North....

Enjoy it while you got it!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps..  Autumn won't last forever. If anything changes in Caribbean.

I'll update as needed. 

I'll admit in Miami more people are using the Chili Mocha Drink ;)

Watching 0% Yellow Circle in Caribbean . . . Watching Winter Maps Go Up on Spaghetti Models. Vote... Enjoy Nice Weather While You Got It. Pumpkin Spice Latte

Not much into the October Surprise Concept here..

Zero percent is zero percent.

0%

NHC way of saying "Yes we see it"

Strong upper level winds inhibiting development.

Still we watch... 

Going to keep this sweet and simple today.

Note above areas in the Caribbean and Atlantic are highlighted.

It's not over til it's over.

But as Mike has put up his now Winter Maps.

It's almost over . . .

http://spaghettimodels.com/

I know because I've been waiting to see if he did or not.

And this is why ...

It's snowed.

This is the picture everyone takes.

It's their deck covered in snow.

Means their summer is over.

In truth it's Autumn across most of America.

Autumn breaks all geographic lines.

In Miami people are sipping Pumpkin Spice Latte.

So just saying.

Weather is beautiful in much of the country.

Few watches or warnings.

So go out and vote!

Vote early.

Or be conventional and wait til Election Day.

Go out, enjoy the weather.

In most of the country it's going down hill from here.

Snow will descend at some point.

Cold bitter winds from the North....

Enjoy it while you got it!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps..  Autumn won't last forever. If anything changes in Caribbean.

I'll update as needed. 

I'll admit in Miami more people are using the Chili Mocha Drink ;)

Hurricane Seymour in EPAC .. Moisture Headed Inland Not Out to Sea. Always watch the Carib in Late Ocotober

Not much to write about in the Atlantic, however there is a storm in the EPAC. I find that interesting for two reasons. One it's a bit late in the year for them to have a hurricane. And the second reason is it's name is Seymour. My father's name was Seymour. I feel like I owe it to him to say something on it...

Also it's worth noting that the moisture from Seymour in the Pacific is going to spread up into the Soutwest vs going out to sea.

See....Seymour...

Caught up in the zonal flow.

Funny to see a Hurricane mentioned in the Phoenix forecast.

Cone below:

They used to insist they used names common to the tropics.

Hmnnn. 

Have we ever had a Hurricane Norman?

And I'm looking at forecasts for down the road.

There are still some possibilities.

I'll discuss them tomorrow.

Also why we watch fronts this time of year.

And as we move further into Fall we watch them for winter.

But what I find interesting is forecasts vary greatly for winter.

So let's stick to the tropics right now.

Whatever is in the Carib would go NE with the flow.

And there is an area in the Atlantic but it's got many problems ...

Satellites are always awesome to watch.

As most people up north watch the falling leaves.

My Grandma Mary loved this song.

Yet we only saw falling leaves in the movies ...

...growing up in Florida.

So enjoy... 

...Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for real time thoughts.

Ps... Really annoys me when Baby Boomers trash talk Millenials.

I remember when they said TV would destroy Baby Boomers.

Well I remember in retrospect as older people complained...

I think we survived TV.

I'm pretty sure Millenials wills survive Netflix.

But will TV survive?

Stay tuned...

#nowords

Meteorologists Chasing Meteors. Cold Front Won Sucked UP Invest 99L. Watching Caribbean For Late Season Action ... Shooting Stars

And this is why.....

That moisture trail you see is what is left of 99L

Score one for the cold front.

You can see it pushing down into the Bahamas.

The High is still there pushing West...

There is still moisture in the Caribbean but today..

Nada happening in tropical meteorology.

But everyone is talking about meteors.

So going to post some links.

And leave a few thoughts.

http://www.nasa.gov/jpl/asteroids/best-meteor-showers

http://spaceweather.com/

http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/

everything-you-need-to-know-orionid-meteor-shower

Some easy tips.

Bundle up if it's cold.

Go somewhere dark...

..preferably with someone you love or like..

Lie down on a blanket or a lounge chair.

Look up not at that person if you want to see meteors.

Relax eyes enough that you begin to see them.

This is essential.

Like those annoying pictures with pictures inside.

You have to relax your eyes.

Google it

Okay I got lost....

Pretty though.

Note do NOT Google Fractual Art.

The point is your eyes need to relax to really see meteors.

Unless you are in the Mother of all Meteor Shows.

Been there once was like a science fiction movie.

It doesn't look like these images you see often.
You have to wait for something to happen.

Sometimes nothing much happens.

Sort of like those yellow Invests from NHC

Other times the sky comes alive as the moon sets.

(best watching when there is no moon or city lights)

For a little while you meteors seem everywhere.

More often that average newbie doesn't see much.

You got to stay there, don't go inside.

Keep watching.

You know like the water vapor loop.

Does NOT look like this ...

If nothing happens...

Drink beer with your best friend or sibling.

Have a Cheerwine.. it's a soda if you don't live Down South.

Or make out with the love of your life ..

If you want to REALLY see a Meteor shower.

It's like storm chasing.

You have to find your spot.

You bring a lot of cameras.

It's not so easy.

As for me I'm watching football today.

Eating BBQ in the Sukkoth

Wearing boots.

It's cold..

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps...watch the Caribbean for late season action.

Models are hinting at formation.

But today meteorology seems all about meteors...

UPDATD NHC Drops 99L to 30% Yellow .. Models Still Show Development. Big, Huge System... In Colder Water. October Maybes..

Note the loop shows 99L and the cold front.

The front is forecast to move through Florida.

It has very little moisture, a dry sort of front.

I'm sure people in Florida will be thrilled.

Up here in Carolina I'm wearing boots tonight.

Maybe taking a jacket with a hood just in case.

99L really spins nicely.

But it has failed to totally wrap.

And the NHC is dropping it's chances 10% at a time.

Note should it look better that may change.

If it doesn't totally catch the front... 

...they will change it in real time.

But for now it is forecast to catch it's ticket out to sea.

And even though the odds are down...

...it stood could surprise us and form into something.

Doubtful but they left it at 30% for now.

I want to mention something Matthew related. The Kroger in Raleigh by me has large gallons of water on pallets out for people to buy. Seems people need them in many areas in the affected areas and people are coming up here to buy and taking them back to where they live. All that water yet some small areas still have been told to boil water just in case. Seems odd to see large pallets of gallons of water with no hurricane headed to town. But the after affects of Matthew are still visible. A lot of power trucks around town fixing lights, street lights and working in areas where there was heavy tree damage. Up here every neighborhood has it's own issues tree wise as the suburbs have planted trees and pines that spouted everywhere. Older, beautiful neighborhoods have hardwoods that snap faster and take longer to clean up. And economics affects everything as people in wealthy areas such as North Raleigh have had the trees taken chopped up and carted away and often the landscaper fixed the yard as if nothing had changed. I saw someone rebuilding a stone fence and several roofers working on large homes nearby. In areas where people live from pay check to pay check trees are still down in yards, semi chopped up and moved out of the street. Sometimes you got to drive around a bit to see the damage Matthew left behind. At the Country Club crews were out fixing everything up fast, yet many have not yet been able to put their yard back together again.

And... Halloween candy and costumes are on sale in Kroger Supermarket here for 50% BEFORE Halloween which seems odd. I asked and spoke to a manager. Seems they are not selling well so far and they want to make sure they move them out so they can put up the next holiday's things fast. So they are on clearance sale before the Holiday even gets going. Again people who may have lost work or had to pay out of pocket to take the old Oak tree off their house, fix their broken windows and buy paint and other minor supplies do not have a gold mine to pay for Halloween this year. Many people are buying things and taking them to friends and relatives down near Lumberton who have lost all their belongings and are living in shelters until someone fixes things. A story on the news shows a small Country Club in Moore County is having problems as their private dam that the Country Club owns has to fix it and they haven't done so yet. Obviously that dam affects more than their property.... In truth there are many small private dams and lakes that are in need of fixing as neighborhood groups try to put their lives back together again.

Matthew may be gone but his affects linger on. In Raleigh the 80 degree temperatures are gone and the cold front is moving in. It rained for the first time since Hurricane Matthew was in so the dry air that held in tight after the last front is gone. People are standing in lines to vote as we move fast towards the Election. Life goes on as an old friend is want to say...

You can see the front draped over my house in NC.

You can see 99L out there over a large area.

Taking up lots of real estate..

And the loop below shows the drama.

The rest of this post explains much if you haven't yet read it.

Nice song at the end. 

Stay tuned as always I'll update as needed.

Thanks for your patience.

Wasn't feeling well earlier. 

That time of year.. change of seasons. 

Hopefully not the flu and just allergies.

Please keep reading...

The window for development is slowing shutting on Invest 99L. You can watch on the Water Vapor Loop below the flow to the East across the Country. Behind the Eastward movement is a push from the colder realms....down to the Southeast towards Florida and then out towards the Atlantic. There is moisture trapped or hiding in a bubble just North of the Bahamas. There are many technical scientific meteorological terms I could use to explain this set up but I haven't had coffee yet and they aren't that important. It's more a history lesson than a scientific one.  Come back next year or the year after and you will see it again and again. So let's suffice this to say this is a typical sort of climatological feature and they often try to make a run at a name, some fame and a run up the coast. Works easier in other places than where it sits right now. Usually they do not make it as it's a very short timing window and then mixing metaphors the door slams shut. That door is pretty much called Winter. Though still there are areas where the tropics flare up in years when we have both cold fronts and stalled out fronts and the water to the South is still warm. So we watch.

I'm going to update this later today so check back.

Models for this system exist...

Much agreement short term.

Less on the long term.

Much like the moisture at the tail end of that front.

It is forecast to push through.

But it's a moving target.

The other day it said it would rain early in the morning.

Be gone by the afternoon.

Then it said later in the morning.

Last night it said mid day.

Now we are looking at rain in Raleigh at 5ish.

It's a very ISH time of year.

I'll be back later with more insight.

And more definitive information.

It's not bothering anyone.

Well.. perhaps it's bothering a few forecasters.

Look at it.

Confusing.

Backward C

Bright dot in middle.

Big huge swatch of convection far from the center.

I'll be back, check back later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Enjoy the music....

NHC Says 50% #99L Yet Many Think It Looks Better Now Worse. October Ice Cream or Christmas Decorations? Snow Flake Leggings & Winter Fashions. Some Snow in Forecast for Portland Maine with a Tropical Connection

A lot to talk about and yet nothing specific that is hard core or a definitive vs more possibilities. The NHC lowered the chances for development down 10% each of their last two updates and they are now at 50% for the five day. Yet, ironically, now most of the better weather people online feel it looks better not worse. That said recon is still scheduled to go into the area and see what is there, however they can ground that flight anytime they want for lack of interest.

This is the official graphic as of 8 AM.

We still be in Orange shade for October and Fall obviously.

Look at our orange juice loop before reading below.

A low may form but not where nor the kind the NHC  was advertising.

Here are some other comments online.

I'll translate that as there is much tropical moisture.

It flows up the canal and around into the developing low.

More heavy rain for Haiti and PR.

Note I say LOW as in the generic sense ;)

Jesse Ferrel still sees Otto forming.

He cites the lightning closer to the center.

Note the center is not the amorphous convection.

But the area very obvious to most of us.

But it's further West than the NHC X

But within the Orange Zone

Truth be told the signature is tighter today than yesterday.

You can see that here below.

Let's look at a close up.

Blue by the way is in style for Winter Fashions.

I'll explain that later. Watch the blue area below.

Visible Loop with no color distractions.

See the twisting and turning on the left side of this floater.

Notice the frontal boundary below:

Models

That is from www.tropicaltidbits.com

It's posted on www.spaghettimodels.com

Rather than get lost in the NHC discussion.

Let's look at Boston NW Forecast Discussion

Again Blue is in style.

Portland, Maine discussion from NWS

Note the phrases . . .

"fairly certain some of the tropical moisture"

Read that above. 

The devil is in the details.

"Large Closed Low Over Northern New England"

then.........watch what comes next...

"changing some of the showers in the mountains

and foothills over to snow showers"

Tropical systems provide much good in many ways. Never kill the tropical messenger! A good percentage of moisture from the tropics makes it way up into the farm basket that grows our wheat, soy and corn in America. Some moisture is from snow melt, other moisture is from tropical systems that move up through the Gulf of Mexico and send rain far inland. They transport heat from the tropics to the poles and they often flip the switch from summer into winter somewhere in the middle of Autumn for the Northeast. Even in the Carolinas they make a difference but they do so sooner rather than later up in New England. Go back and look at those models that come dangerously close to New England. Note the NWS discussion discusses the tropical moisture enhancing the front and then comes snow showers with some light accumulation.

October is a difficult time to figure out.

Summer or Winter?

I tried the new Jo Malone Orange Bitters.

Made me want to go home and have an Old Fashion..

I went to the mall to buy some leggings.

Leggings have now pushed jeans into #2  place in the fashion world.

Dresses and skirts are in ...with leggings.

I also like the way I look in leggings.

So it was 87 degrees in Raleigh.

I looked at a white, glittery butterfly ornament.

And then I bought some ice cream.

When God gives you 87 degrees in October..

..you buy ice cream.

The weatherman on air last night told people to drink a lot of water..

..at the North Carolina State Fair.

He suggested staying hydrated with cold drinks..

..no hot chocolate.

Weather affects everything.

I'll make a forecast that this years Winter Fashion Trend.

For women... will be Santa leggings not Santa sweaters.

Perhaps some cute snow flake leggings with a very short jean skirt.

And boots... cute furry boots.

Yes...looking for snowflake leggings.

I did try to find a hurricane pair but nada no where..

Pretty sure a hurricane satellite image on leggings would sell.

That said...

It's October.

I'm watching the tropics ...

...but I'm wondering on winter.

I'm not the only one...

Stay tuned.

Ps ...Still much to watch in the tropics:

Doesn't OTTO sound like it should be a Winter Storm?

Hmnnn