NHC Says 50% #99L Yet Many Think It Looks Better Now Worse. October Ice Cream or Christmas Decorations? Snow Flake Leggings & Winter Fashions. Some Snow in Forecast for Portland Maine with a Tropical Connection

A lot to talk about and yet nothing specific that is hard core or a definitive vs more possibilities. The NHC lowered the chances for development down 10% each of their last two updates and they are now at 50% for the five day. Yet, ironically, now most of the better weather people online feel it looks better not worse. That said recon is still scheduled to go into the area and see what is there, however they can ground that flight anytime they want for lack of interest.

This is the official graphic as of 8 AM.

We still be in Orange shade for October and Fall obviously.

Look at our orange juice loop before reading below.

A low may form but not where nor the kind the NHC  was advertising.

Here are some other comments online.

I'll translate that as there is much tropical moisture.

It flows up the canal and around into the developing low.

More heavy rain for Haiti and PR.

Note I say LOW as in the generic sense ;)

Jesse Ferrel still sees Otto forming.

He cites the lightning closer to the center.

Note the center is not the amorphous convection.

But the area very obvious to most of us.

But it's further West than the NHC X

But within the Orange Zone

Truth be told the signature is tighter today than yesterday.

You can see that here below.

Let's look at a close up.

Blue by the way is in style for Winter Fashions.

I'll explain that later. Watch the blue area below.

Visible Loop with no color distractions.

See the twisting and turning on the left side of this floater.

Notice the frontal boundary below:

Models

That is from www.tropicaltidbits.com

It's posted on www.spaghettimodels.com

Rather than get lost in the NHC discussion.

Let's look at Boston NW Forecast Discussion

Again Blue is in style.

Portland, Maine discussion from NWS

Note the phrases . . .

"fairly certain some of the tropical moisture"

Read that above. 

The devil is in the details.

"Large Closed Low Over Northern New England"

then.........watch what comes next...

"changing some of the showers in the mountains

and foothills over to snow showers"

Tropical systems provide much good in many ways. Never kill the tropical messenger! A good percentage of moisture from the tropics makes it way up into the farm basket that grows our wheat, soy and corn in America. Some moisture is from snow melt, other moisture is from tropical systems that move up through the Gulf of Mexico and send rain far inland. They transport heat from the tropics to the poles and they often flip the switch from summer into winter somewhere in the middle of Autumn for the Northeast. Even in the Carolinas they make a difference but they do so sooner rather than later up in New England. Go back and look at those models that come dangerously close to New England. Note the NWS discussion discusses the tropical moisture enhancing the front and then comes snow showers with some light accumulation.

October is a difficult time to figure out.

Summer or Winter?

I tried the new Jo Malone Orange Bitters.

Made me want to go home and have an Old Fashion..

I went to the mall to buy some leggings.

Leggings have now pushed jeans into #2  place in the fashion world.

Dresses and skirts are in ...with leggings.

I also like the way I look in leggings.

So it was 87 degrees in Raleigh.

I looked at a white, glittery butterfly ornament.

And then I bought some ice cream.

When God gives you 87 degrees in October..

..you buy ice cream.

The weatherman on air last night told people to drink a lot of water..

..at the North Carolina State Fair.

He suggested staying hydrated with cold drinks..

..no hot chocolate.

Weather affects everything.

I'll make a forecast that this years Winter Fashion Trend.

For women... will be Santa leggings not Santa sweaters.

Perhaps some cute snow flake leggings with a very short jean skirt.

And boots... cute furry boots.

Yes...looking for snowflake leggings.

I did try to find a hurricane pair but nada no where..

Pretty sure a hurricane satellite image on leggings would sell.

That said...

It's October.

I'm watching the tropics ...

...but I'm wondering on winter.

I'm not the only one...

Stay tuned.

Ps ...Still much to watch in the tropics:

Doesn't OTTO sound like it should be a Winter Storm?

Hmnnn