A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, October 13, 2016
NHC Hurricane Nicole 120 MPH Moving NE at 16 MPH and Bermuda. NC Trying to Clean Up from Matthew.. I95 STILL CLOSED with Detours up.. Take the Detour do NOT make your own (people have died doing so) and Hurricane Like Storm in NW Social Media VS Main Stream Media VS NHC Graphics.
Notice anything missing? Like Bermuda?
Really dislike these maps. Sorry just being honest.
NRL map is below .... it shows more information.
Below on the satellite imagery Bermuda is visible.
Putting Nicole in motion:
Again the reds are the core of the hurricane.
The white is the cloud signature.
Cold weather clouds to the left.
It's moving NE.
Slowly goes extra-tropical.
The famous black and white visible loop.
A miss is as good as a mile of the eye officially.
Yet as we learned in Daytona being in the eye wall is no picnic.
That's an enhanced 3D view of the eye last night.
We get better and better with graphics these days.
And graphics can help communicate danger.
This great satellite loop is on www.spaghettimodels.com
Note down SW of Cuba is a small round area of winds.
Keep that in mind for when we are done with Nicole.
And done discussing massive inland flooding from Matthew.
I'm getting a little tired of doing things the old way and not making changes that are in line with reality. Do not confuse my annoyance at graphics with the total package the NHC puts out. It's not the 1960s and their graphics need to be updated to carefully communicate the dangers inherent. And, we need to stop treating the "eye" like some sort of gambling, spots event it's not like darts as the dart hits the bullseye however the storm is a package of various types of devastation. Strong winds, surf, eye wall dangers vs the eye and getting the front and back side of the eye. To pretend an area will "not" get the hurricane dead on because the eye veers right is to not properly communicate the dangers of being in the eye wall for four hours or storm surge carrying a dome of water or extreme rainfall in the bands of the hurricane. It's about the HURRICANE not the EYE. It's not mathematical it's geographical and other aspects of Earth Science are involved in every landfall or "near miss" such as geology and oceanography. If your home got flooded you went through the effects of a Hurricane. And those effects far from the eye need to be properly conveyed by the NHC even though the local NWS tries to get the info out. The media follows the NHC and so do the average population. If it was a SNOW STORM they'd pay attention to the NWS but if it's weather associated with a Hurricane they pay attention to the NHC.
Weaver the Weatherman in Miami communicating the weather.
A weatherman people trusted in regular weather or a hurricane.
He was good at communicating the details.
Oddly his graphics above are better than the cone below.
I can remember years ago when he would do hurricane discussion he made it clear there were many different dangers involved. There was not a big focus on the EYE as if it was some sort of Rock Star as much the storm itself. There was discussion on tides, the winds inland and the differences Key Biscayne would get from Hurricane Cleo vs inland in Coral Gables where the eye may not get you but the winds around the eye will batter you. It was a package not a pissing contest on which model had the best track with odds in Vegas on the EURO or the GFS. Using harsh language here as this is a harsh reality guys. Recently I listened to nights of young guns online arguing the exact track of the eye vs the actual impacts Matthew would have on places in the path of the storm itself. I'm pretty sure there was betting going on regarding which model was better vs the depth of understanding of inland dangers even if the eye stayed off shore. It's what you focus on and where your priorities are and again the devil is in the details.
I heard mets tell me that it's turning and it won't affect South Carolina or North Carolina. When I pointed out, like many others did, that the winds will not come down that fast and the surge would slam the coast even if it didn't make landfall I was barraged with discussion on how the models showed this or that and ... They missed the point. All they wanted to discuss was the models and how Miami may get hit a second time in the 5 day cone and which model is handling the storm better while the storm was getting away and making straight for SC with an actual landfall. Enjoy the models but never take your eyes off the storm and it's outflow, shape, form and actual movement.
In this time of satellite imagery and drones inside the storm we have not figured out it seems how to properly convey... to communicate the dangers of a hurricane with it's outflow already moving into North Carolina. That's a problem. I heard a local on air meteorologist in Raleigh insist that the rain that was falling Friday late in the day "was not related to the hurricane" and he was wrong and why he would do it I don't know. It was just wrong. He kept insisting it's not really connected. No ... it was connected as there was no other reason we were getting precipitation swirling in fast in distant bands spreading ahead of the storm. While he was insisting it wasn't connected meteorologists in Charlotte further inland were explaining on Twitter the distant effects of Hurricane Matthew were moving into the area. Obviously it was moisture from distant bands ahead of Hurricane Matthew so why insist it was not? Makes no sense. People today know more than they knew back when. And yet years ago Weaver the Weatherman in Miami was warning the Miami populace of dangers inland vs dangers at the coast. Go figure.
It's not that the package from the NHC is bad, though we won't discuss the circle cone, in general it's the best there is and they do a bang up job under much pressure with back seat drivers everywhere with the same access to the models they have complaining on their every move. But the way it is communicated is wrong and it needs to get better. And, to be honest part of the problem is the discussion they put out in that they spend too much time defending their forecast against the various models or talking on shear forecasts vs discussing the dangers in the path of the storm itself. Old discussions differ from the latest discussions and they were more about the storm and less about defending a low confidence forecast. I know it must really be difficult to have to forecast with every weather geek in America writing their own discussion on every form of social media there is and yet it looks bad to have mets high five themselves on how the EYE stayed off shore while kids are showing extreme damage in real time on SNAPCHAT.
The eye is exciting and every weather geek wants to be in the eye of a hurricane, preferably a Cat 2 not a Cat 3, but the damage is often seen from storm surge far to the right of the actual eye making landfall and bizarre high winds in storms in the eye wall endlessly slamming into your town. One street looks like a Twister hit it and another street ten blocks away looks like it had a strong Tropical Storm. I saw it up close and personal on Miami Beach in Hurricane Andrew.
So putting again asking you to read the article by Brad Panovich.
In a world where anyone with a good smart phone can be a reporter.
It's time to upgrade the way we talk about hurricanes.
Upgrade how we show them graphically with inherent dangers.
Sand is up to 4 feet deep in Pawley's Island.
The dunes are gone.
The media has moved on...
TWC is covering it in ways today.
CNN FOX and MSNBC not.
Then again they are going the way of the Nightly News.
It's a new world and we need to keep up.
Some videos below from Snapchat, Youtube and Mainstream Media.
"just because you downgrade something from a 4 to a 1.. it's a 4 to us"
That quote was written in real time.
TWC doing a sound bite from the Gov of NC.
When the NHC puts out that it's going to only be a TS in 72 hours.
From a Cat 4 to a Tropical Storm in 72 hours as they did back when.
People let their guard down and think it is going away.
Matthew was still 75 MPH when it was off the coast of OBX.
They had to put up Hurricane Warnings in real time.
A good track forecast but as usual problems with intensity forecasting.
Piers in NC and SC are gone.
Intensity forecast was wrong.
Please watch the videos below.
Some are more polished others raw.
Yet Hurricane Matthew's effects in NC were raw indeed.
Orlando and Hurricane Matthew.
Obviously as the first person said Orlando was lucky not to get more.
St. Augustine that did not get the eye of Matthew...
Jacksonville did not get the eye.
But they had hurricane impacts.
US Coast Guard video from Savannah.
Not in the eye but they had problems.
Especially out on Tybee Island.
Charleston SC got massive damage.
But the eye was not exactly over Charleson.
Does anyone in Charleson really care where the eye was?
Well those that wished they had a few minutes of quiet maybe.
I know meteorology is all bout math.
Eye off shore... water onshore.
Then there's North Carolina that did not get a "direct hit" from Matthew.
I didn't watch the whole video. Watched most.
Yeah language may get harsh towards the end when viewing damage.
You get like that when your town, home and life is underwater.
Some people get religious and say "Oh my God a lot"
Others use a lot of hells and other phrases.
Excellent explanation in real time of what NC got...
It got the impacts, effects from the Hurricane.
And oh by the way as he says..
I'll put it this way:
"Hey dude we did get the early affects on Friday of Hurricane Matthew in Raleigh.
Yo Bro you seriously got to change the way you communicate dangers"
It seems some mets like to think they are saving you from worrying on disasters rather than preparing you for possible dangers that may not happen. They can change their words in real time. We don't want people to panic and think a snow storm is coming when it might not. That's why they say ..prepare for the worst.. hope for the best. Yeah that happens here in Raleigh often with certain mets who play down the possible effects of a possible snow storm.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm