UPDATED!! Hurricane Matthew in Raleigh NC.. Landfall in SC... Cat 1. - 13 US Deaths, Toll May Climb. Stay Safe and Shelter in Place for the Night if You Are in NC Piedmont, Sandhills or Down By the Coast. Please.

11 PM Update.

Posting now and will update in the morning after good morning visibles.

After some good coffee and a look at the models and water vapor loop.

And after I get definitive reports of record winds and flooding, etc.

What's left of Matthew is seen here.. departing NC into VA

Matthew up, up and away.

Now up in Virginia as I said on Friday it might be.

Seemed a question .. a bit of a stretch.

NHC discussion indicated it wouldn't get past SE NE..

...before the big curve back to the SE.

Watching the WV Loop it seemed plausible.

Wilmington, OBX and SE VA in play.

And much like Julia... 

...Hampton Roads having problems again.

It's what you call CLIMO + Current Patterns + WV =

They need to move the floater...

I still have some cloud cover in Raleigh.

No stars out yet tonight.

In the morning I'll see ....

....what the new creek behind my house looks like.

Luckily it doesn't look that bad.

A friend posted some pics today.

Posting them here...

This is why they are asking people to stay off the road.

The winds are still squally... 

.. winds behind the storm and in association with the front area strong.

NC Roads saying tonight winds knocking down signs they put up.

If you are driving down a small road you won't see it til you hit it.

And some roads are out even in the Triangle Area far inland.

That's a washed out road.. there's a video on Facebook.

People standing around in shock looking at sudden rapids.

The Neuse and Tar Rivers are supposed to be at record level.

And they won't go down anytime soon.

The picture above is just regular street flooding.

So stay home. Off the roads.

5 to 10 inches of rain in Virginia Beach.

Hurricane Watches were just posted for the Outer Banks.

Heard my neighborhood had gusts up in the 50s today.

Strong sustained winds in squalls for a while.

Will see tomorrow.

Front goes stationary.

Matthew stalls a bit.

Sounds like Julia doesn't it?

That is the 3 day cone from NHC

Will see what tomorrow brings.

Note the loop is gone.

The circle is gone.

Miami is no longer in the cone.

Way back on Tuesday NHC had a good gone.

That was a good cone.

Pretty much verified the whole way.

Came closer to Daytona.

I'd argue if the eye wall sits over your town.

You got the eye.

You got the weather ...

... you missed the dead zone of the eye.

But you did get the eye wall.

Perhaps they will look at their data again?

The data for an landfall in SC was obvious.

Mets watching the wind drop showed eye making landfall.

Also showed the pier in Myrtle Beach stopped recording :(

Truth is it was a massive dome of water.

Pushed North for miles and miles.

From Africa to Central Atlantic..

..to Caribbean... north into Atlantic again.

Towards the beaches of the Carolinas...

(and NE Florida)

And that dome of water took one hell of a punch at SC and NC.

And now it's moving into the OBX and Virginia area 

Most people don't realize...

...the Outer Banks really start in VA ...

Kind of one big area.

Geography 101.

Sweet Tropical Dreams I like to say.

Keep on reading.

Learning dreaming.

Sitting on the balcony today..

...I heard the words of a Carpenter Song.

I'm not a big Carpenter fan these days.

My brother loved them, brother loved them.

Took me a while to figure out what song it was...

So putting it here.....for all the Carpenter fans.

That was pretty much my day.

Watching the winds get stronger and the rain fall harder.

As Hurricane Matthew moved into NC from SC.

Well the rain, weather and outflow moved my way.

The center still down by the coast.

I'm in Raleigh, we had strong winds. 

Probably gusts of Tropical Storm force winds.

Heavy rain, flooding, trees down.

Down by the Coast they are having a Cat 1 Hurricane.

I'm safe obviously and catching up on my loops and models.

Old picture above. Good loop below shows it's 5 day's trip up the coast.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php

Wider view of Matthew and the trof... 

Catching his ride out of town.

Some of his energy "may" remain.

Time will tell.

Note the mid level trof... picked up Hurricane Matthew nicely.

Pulling it up and out.

Part of the circulation may go East... in time.

But the greater part of it is gone with the trof.

As I believed it would be.

That's one reason I didn't show the 5 day looping cone.

First off there were bigger priorities than a long shot possibility.

I know the Water Vapor Loop ... it's my specialty.

The WV Loop said it was not going South.

Nicole did but that's a different story.

For now we are dealing with Matthew.

Matthew is battering Wilmington...

And the death toll will rise sadly.

As there is flooding, flash flooding and trees falling.

New cone from NHC is in line with what I thought would happen.

We can talk about the drama of Nicole and a fujiwara later.

Obviously that Fujiwara isn't happening.

What may happen we will talk about tomorrow.

Tonight and Sunday Morning it's all about Matthew.

So I'll be honest with y'all as we say in North Carolina... I had a really good day. Nice Shabbos resting, relaxing and getting lost in the beauty of Hurricane Matthew from far away in Raleigh. And, yet we had quite a storm. Nothing like the battering they took down by the coast, but there are trees down and creeks are rising and people are being asked to stay home and avoid downed trees in the dark or flooded roads. To be honest Raleigh isn't well lit in many places, hard to understand the lack of street lighting on busy streets, the last thing anyone needs is to drive into a downed tree. Or a street flooded by a nearby creek that you didn't realize had a creek nearby. It's that sort of place.

Seriously.. from the Governor of the State now being affected most directly from Hurricane Matthew:

"North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory said Saturday that the state recorded three storm-related deaths -- one in Samson County due to hydroplaning and two in Bladen County after a vehicle was submerged in flood water.

"This is a very serious and deadly storm," McCrory said at a press conference Saturday afternoon. He urged the public to stay off roads and remain indoors."

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-matthew-batters-florida-coast-dead-million-lose/story?id=42608853

A good reason to stay home and listen to the rain and enjoy the security of a dry house that hopefully has electric. Ours flickered often, I was sure we were gonna lose it but so far so good. The bigger problem across the Sandhills and Piedmont inland is that the rain has made the ground saturated and later this evening winds are supposed to pick up again from the back side of the storm as the cold front comes through and those winds could take down trees already loosened by a day of heavy rain.

Speaking of heavy rain my husband walked to the Synagogue nearby for services and came home drenched despite a good raincoat and said that the sidewalk on Falls of the Neuse Road was a running stream for the last block. Our complex is in good shape, more or less, good draining and well maintained but the sidewalk near the pine trees was a small stream a few inches deep during the strongest rains. Homes near by on the golf courses now have water front property. Some of the small distant ponds on the golf course have joined together into bigger lakes and its one big, beautiful watery mess for someone to clean up later this week.  And this is minor damage. Roads are closed across the Triangle in places that are prone to flooding and Crabtree Creek is at a high flood level... third highest in history according to the experts. Stay home.

And I did. I sat outside this morning on the wide balcony in a nice white rufffled peasant skirt one of my daughter's best friends left at my house years ago and a loose, soft Victoria's Secrets tee shirt the kind that falls off one shoulder.  I sat there outside on the deep balcony protected from the wind wearing the fragrance Pure Seduction that I wear that the owner of the skirt used to wear so basically a part of Michelle was in NC today. I sat there, loved every moment and watched the pines dance. The wind danced, the rain fell in sheets and bounced off the neighbors roof tops all silvery from the hours of rain and I slowly enjoyed a small Haagen Daz coffee ice cream cup I put away for something special. A drop of cinnamon sugar and chocolate sprinkles on top like a pretend Hurricane Sundae for my Hurricane Shabbos Party. I know people "Down East" as we say round these parts were having much worse and I knew there would be problems down near Fayetteville and Fort Bragg and there were and so far away from Raleigh... way too many people have died in this storm in NC, SC and Florida. I'm lucky to be here in Raleigh where it wasn't too bad but enough to really feel we had a tropical storm. More than my kids got in Miami ..go figure.

I had a beautiful day as I could just sit, enjoy and wasn't online thinking what to write and looping but just enjoying the beauty of weather moving into an area..  waking up to heavy rain, wind and listening to it howl at times and yeah it did howl so we had to have had some pretty good squalls. I had TWC on mute in another bedroom, checked here and there on the progress and saw it made landfall in South Carolina and watched it crawl along the coast. But, mostly, I watched it here making pines dance, trees dance and an occasional howling sound that made me remember much worse hurricanes I had been in. And in truth this was a much worse hurricane and they are very lucky it made landfall as a strong Cat 1 and not a Cat 4 or they'd have much worse damage. This was no Hazel for the Carolinas but it will be remembered as all hurricanes are each in their own way. But for Daytona Beach and St. Augustine that really felt the brunt of this Hurricane it will take longer to put things back together again. And .. yes seeing damage in Myrtle Beach where part of a pier was washed away and there is flooding. I wasn't chasing a hurricane this trip around, I chased Julia on my way South a few weeks back. The storm stayed down by the coast but the Raleigh Triangle Area got way more than most people thought they'd get. Pretty much what I thought we'd get. 

Several dams have broken or seen damage and the rivers will continue to rise until Tuesday. This is a slow moving tragedy in North Carolina and you won't hear about it much on TWC. They are down by the beach, my beaches, watching waves and yelling over the wind. Here in NC this really is a "life threatening situation" and people are being asked to shelter in place unless you are in an evacuation area. And the rivers will keep rising for the next few days so the flooding will not go away as fast as Hurricane Matthew will head slowly away.

Locally in Raleigh the OTHER big news story is that NC STATE played the Fighting Irish today in what was referred to as the "Slop Bowl" or "Slop Fest" as it was very wet but in Raleigh college football fans are legendary for their enthusiasm so the game went on. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I'll update later this evening. I thought I'd give you my thoughts and experiences with Hurricane Matthew in Raleigh. As I write this I can hear sirens running down the major Road nearby. People on the roads, accidents... really just stay home. It's one thing to go out in the daytime as I did when I walked around a bit but at night you cannot see tree limbs down, you can't see water on the road and people drive crazy in storms... they panic easier. Stay home, go out tomorrow and see what needs to be done. And if you are in Raleigh near me.. or in VA where they could have gotten more give thanks you did not have a Category 1 at landfall like many of my friends did in Charleston and Myrtle Beach. I have many friends in Myrtle Beach, it's become my MB place to go these days vs Miami Beach. I sat on the balcony this morning with coffee in my Carolina Girl .. Myrtle Beach mug. Life goes on huh? And the UM FSU game is on... UF postponed their game so I'm watching the Hurricanes play football... as a hurricane is nearby. Go Canes!

As a Wolfpack Alumni Parent.. Go Pack.