Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 06, 2016

UPDATED 10 PM - 4 Matthew. Links. Loops. Discussion. Video From the Beach and Where Will He Go?

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Look at the shape of Matthew.
Most of the strong weather off shore
Just touching, kissing the coast.
Barely crossing the beach...

Real picture, look how flat it is on top.

Picture from earlier...

Look at that frontal boundary.
A real drama going on between Matthew moving NW
Tracing the coast of Florida staying off shore
Front moving faster..

What worries me is this..
The cone is small along Georgia coastline.
Not a wide cone of low confidence.
Whether Matthew makes landfall in NE FL
Or if Matthew stays off shore FL
It's storm surf, surf, rain will remain a problem for GA and SC.

See the models..
...they do not diverge until NC coastline

Even if it does the loop...
..the dome of water it is pushing North cannot avoid the coastline there.

In my life... my world.
Mucho multi-tasking

Watched a new show with my husband.
Looped and listened to Mike.
Did you know you can watch NFL on Twitter?
I may need a shrink who understands weather addiction..

 I'll update at 11.
10 PM is just notice of direction and cords.
They are holding with NW
Possible Eye wall replacement.
I'll say one thing.
Aside from the main bulk of inner core.
There is little real weather far from that core.

Tightly wound up as Cat 3 and Cat 4 Canes are...
Some strong cells raced across Florida.
Florida so far as been very lucky.
Can that luck hold?
NE FL watching.
Many people are praying.

And the beat goes on...

More than half of strong weather in Matthew in SW part.
Let's say 2/3 of Matthew behind the eye.
Very little on NW side.

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So far 264 people dead in the Caribbean from Matthew.
That number will climb.

Jax has not had a storm like this since 1898 according to CNN.
So my question is in reality why now?
I've heard global warming  ...
I've heard weather modification..."they" made Nicole to steer it away..
I've heard a group of women went to the beach, prayed.. holy water involved.
I'm not kidding I have heard more "reasons" for this odd storm.
History is littered with the rare storm that hit Jax.
Dora for example though many say that was weather mod.
Project Storm Fury rumors...
High builds in...storm moves West.
Much like Andrew except further North.
But as much of the cone is offshore than onshore.

Just as easy to see Matthew stay offshore ... make a historic once in a blue moon life time hit.
We will know soon.
Matthew is moving NW still.

130 MPH

We can hope and pray those prayers keep Matthew away.
Scientific types will err on side of CLIMO
Paranoid types will err on conspiracy.

Matthew is equal with West Palm Beach.
So no veering inland at WPB as some models showed.
Moving off shore NW tracing the coast 50 or 75 miles off shore perhaps.

Look at that strong band that is moving across the state 
Daytona to Tampa.
Down in the Florida Keys there is a band.

Stay tuned.
I'd say there is a greater than 50% chance it stays just offshore.
Unless it wobbles later.
I'll update in real time.
From the image below you can see which way it wants to go

Dvorak Loop shows intensity and structure

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Getting that scull like look again.

Miami people be like:


How close do you want it to get?
People in Miami complain they aren't getting anything..
They are getting plenty, they are being spared the big stuff.
Matthew is sitting just off shore Miami.
For anyone who has lost their power...
..and complaining about it and not getting much.
You aren't prepared to get a Cat 4 Hurricane.
It's as close as it gets.

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Look at the radar up close

Close up of eye within a larger eye wall.
It is basically spinning about within that moat.
Heard someone use that well.
Shot below shows it more to the NE
It is spinning within that outer circle.
After this shot it looked to the N
Those are eye wobbles.
Remember the dice video from this morning?
It's wobbling within the bigger circle of deadly winds.

Covers most of the state..
Strong squalls are moving in with high winds.
Not hurricane winds but enough to knock power out.
FPL not making promises during the storm.

Position at 5 PM
Movement NW at 13 MPH
Recon finding lower barometer pressures.

Still 140 MPH

Discussion from Forecaster Avila is below:
$alient point.. 

Defends current NW movement as many in media say NNW.

Good App.. good graphics always below:

Look at it spinning... 
You can see from the weaker NW side it IS hitting a wall of shear.
Sort of shrinking on NW side.
NE side getting more moist.
Will this have long term ramifications?
Could it stay off shore within that famous cone?
Stay tuned. Maybe.
For now NHC maintains their forecast.
Watches warnings extended out to Myrtle Beach.
Hunker down in Miami and Hollywood.
Be glad you are just getting squalls of rain.
My grandson's parents took him for a brief walk today.
In front of the house to see the clouds.
I was reminded he is the first Florida Grandchild :)
Judah... and Judah went for a walk under Hurricane skies.
Glad he is not getting a direct hit of a Category 4.
Maybe Matthew will surprise us and spare the Space Coast.
Time will tell.
We will know soon.

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Some sheer discussion from a good Met.

See chart up on Spaghetti Models
A wall of shear near

Speaking on Carolinas... and up the way.
Weaker weather but something tropical.
Many people are evacuating from low lying areas.
Again...low country is low.

Winds show what Matthew is up against.

And if you live in Broward County...
...stay off the road or you are on your own.

Going wider see the whole drama.
The highs, the lows.
The hurricane trapped between two highs.
Only has one place to go...
Up the coastline of Florida.

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That front is beginning to dip over Texas.
High above it is closing off N of NC VA line.
Outflow is moving more NNW but they say NW.

Nicole spinning out to the East.

Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Matthew
140 MPH moving NW
Forecast to get stronger.

Statistics below are from earlier forecast.
So far it's holding at 140.

Continue reading and enjoy the videos.
My kids went to the beach took tons of video.
Witness to history.
Matthew will be historic.

A close friend sending me video.
She's on Miami Beach
Not much happening so she took some video.
You get the idea...

Miami Beach got strong squalls.
But Miami Beach got really lucky.

* * *

It's really hard to post a long discussion right now as so much is going on ...on multiple levels. I have wonderful readers who ask me questions on Twitter and I feel the need to respond the best I can either answering them or telling them who would have a better answer. I have several kids in Miami who are riding out the Hurricane in various locations and each location has it's own issue. The one far to the West in West Dade should have less direct impact yet the ones in North Miami Beach 3 miles from the ocean at my brothers have already lost power from one strong squall. My brother said things I cannot repeat about FPL and well just the way it goes, hopefully it will come back on soon. Again as the crow flies the Broward County Line is much faster as the crow flies than driving on Biscayne Blvd. I have a son, grandson and daughter-in-law in Hollywood East of I 95 hunkered down with shutters down and doing well. Not sure where my daughter and her fiance are as the plan was to stay in SkyLake area but they were at the beach a while ago with the ones in NMB. Friends are sending me awesome video and pictures and asking questions.

On a professional level this Category 4 Hurricane is one to study, write about and review it after all is said and done. Each professional met I am friends with has one area of expertise they are obsessing over so we are all like 7 blind meteorologists studying the same Category 4 beast named Matthew. Could it go Cat 5 as it wobbles across the Gulfstream finish line?

See young Miami kids see Wilma, Katrina, Irene and a few others but older Miami kids see Hurricane Andrew...

That's Andrew above NOT Matthew

Only difference is this Category 4 is moving NW... 
...Andrew above was moving due West.

Big difference.
Still Miami, Broward, Palm Beach will get strong weather.
Tropical weather.
Tropical Storm winds to Hurricane Winds.

See it doesn't seem so bad.
The beach is wild but not crazy.
Conditions change fast.

I try to explain to newbies...
Weather goes from zero to 20 then zero then 20.
In this sort of set up where the hurricane doesn't make a direct hit.
A direct hit is very different.

Love it as the police tell them to leave.
And then do eventually.
Back home now.
Without power.

My brother not happy...
...has a crazy dog afraid of storms.
A son who I saw was watching Mike's Live Feed last night.
My kids and a few spouses.
A howling Basset Hound
He wants his power back...

But it's a BIG area affected.
This IS the problem.
Will be a way bigger problem... FPL tries to put the grid back together again over FLORIDA

Rob from really drives the point home.
Catastrophic damage is expected across E Coast of FL
He's wise, aware and shares thoughts.

Great discussion on as well.
On his page, he hosts it.
Look over his main page it's awesome.

Strong band about to come into Boyton Beach.

EYE ...calm
Eye Wall... 140 MPH winds
Outer Band..stronger winds but not 140
Random bands far away swirling on shore NOW

Going wider see the bands in Naples and up towards Orlando.
This is why the watches and warnings went West.
Across all of Florida

As it is now Category 4 the storm surge will be higher.
Remember this storm has carried far and is huge.
So that water can only go one place.. with the storm.
Ahead of the storm.

Surf Report
Best in the business.

Winds evident below

Larry Cosgrove insisted this would merge with the trof.
He also said if it does.. winter gets closer.
IF it loops stalls... time will tell.

NW steady as he goes

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So close.
Clouds still down over Cuba.
Moving faster away from Nassau.
Out of Bahamas headed towards Florida.

So what can I tell you?

This may go through an eye wall replacement cycle.
Possibly hard to say.

The 12Z HWRF forecasts a double eyewall.
Stay tuned.

If so they weaken a bit then explode.
Wind field expands further out.
The storm doesn't move closer to you but the winds do.

Miami and South Florida dodged Matthew.
They will be impacted.
Some damage here and there.
Power outages already.
Weather will get worse.

Palm Beach North is in for a real blow.
A strong hurricane.
Some places will have off shore effects.
Trees down, signs down. Power lights out..
Power out. Life will be disrupted.
It will be a picnic in retrospect compared to places further North.

The points show landfall along the beach.
Storm surge is strongest to the right.. North of landfall.
Melbourne North looking at catastrophic damage.
Depending on what Matthew does in real time.


Models show it giving the whole coast up til Mrytle Beach problems.
How bad is hard to say right now.
Matthew will have a say in his future as a Category 4 Hurricane.
Some show a loop offshore sooner rather than later.
GFDL ignores the loop scenario and goes out to sea.
How close this gets to me in NC has yet to be determined.

NWS Melbourne told me last night Space Center 
...could be between 5 - 7 feet of water.
Maybe 11 feet if a direct landfall of a Cat 4.

That may be higher now as it's stronger.

They have moved the rockets.
A lot of small, beautiful little homes up there in Satellite Beach.
Cocoa Beach has one story, ranch homes near the water.
Worries me how they will handle a storm.
Perhaps Matthew will come ashore on a nature preserve?

Jax.. yet to be determined.

I'll update at the top or start new thread if needed.

5 PM will show any changes in cone or intensity.

A different map view from Canadian Weather Center

 I like their map. Lots of info.
They deal with hurricanes often.

NRL Navy Map

Note the consistency.
They all agree.
They all see...the same thing.
Tracing the coastline.

One beautiful hurricane.
Dangerous, deadly.
But picture perfect.
In that perfection is fury, wrath and devastation coming.

Matthew had moved out of the Caribbean.
Onto the Canadian IR satellite image.

After a Florida landfall.

This area is under the gun.
Unless it loops faster and I don't see that.
Matthew is moving.
To be seems to have picked up speed.

I'll be back with the 5 PM and updating in real time.

From Del Ray North everyone is waiting and watching.
Hunkering down.
South Carolina, Georgia has evacuations going on.

And aircraft out there doing their best for you. has everything you need.
Play around with it and look for new links.
I'm proud to be a part of it on the top right.
He updates links, loops in real time.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

My favorite floater:

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See? Matthew slides up to E of Andros Island.
His weather spiraling towards South Florida.
East Central and NE Florida waits to see what's next.

Only Matthew knows.
@bobbistorm on


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