Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 07, 2016

11 AM Cone Moved Closer to SC Coast ---Matthew Friday Morning .. NHC DIRECTOR GOES LIVE .. Warns of Storm Surge Problems, Flooding With Winds in FL GA SC NC Surge Maps Online

11 AM
Moving NNW at 12 MPH
Winds 120 MPH

Cone moved closer to the coastline.
Forecast point Charleston SC as Hurricane.
Just off NC coast Wilmington as Hurricane.

This is not over.
Also if you are watching live coverage from TWC
Daytona Beach is coming apart at the seams.
Concrete pieces of hotels falling off
IN eye wall getting slammed with bands around eye.

Refer to your favorite radar.
Going to be a big clean up.
Signage down, roofing problems.
Windows smashed.
Listen up GA SC and NC... pay attention.
If you live near the coast you may be cut off.
IN JAX area they are begging people to get off barrier islands.
Note Myrtle Beach does NOT have barrier islands.
That's a post for another day.
They are prone to flooding.

Threat of tornado increases as bands slam on to land.
Cat 3 Hurricanes Strong.
Major Weather Makers.

Updating in real time at top here..
Keep reading. Thanks.

Doesn't get much closer than this...
And like in the GOM if headed NNW or NE.. 
Affects Land Again in GA SC NC...

This is where we are right now.
Well where we were at 7:54 AM Friday Morning.
Not sure if the center of the eye has to cross land...
...or if this is an official landfall but does it matter?

In motion:

avn_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

I ask that as people far away like to be back seat drivers.
IF  you are IN the EYEWALL for hours.
Unrelenting, sustained, hurricane force winds.
You got the hurricane.
Trust me.

Big picture. 
Matthew inched his way up the coast.
The ocean is being pushed N along with him.
Out ahead of the eye wall....
His squalls far out ahead of his large eye.
The front is up in the top left.
He is pushing into High Pressure.
Big, Major Hurricanes can do that.

Smaller close up view:

That was a bit earlier.
Those bright pink purple winds are not make up.
Or made up...they are real.
The South side of Matthew has been stronger than North side.

So NHC Director went on air with his team LIVE this morning.

Well done really.
Rick Knabb is not a show boater.
He's not a media rock star like Neil Frank.
He is there showing his forecasters.
A unified voice warning people in the path of Matthew.

See these images below...
The NHC has a new product.
The product was developed to save lives.
Most lives are lost from flooding.
You can hide from the wind but....
....hard to run from the water if it's too late to leave.

Bottom 2 features.
Use them.
It's NOT all about the Cone.

The images below show you how close up you can go...
Zoom in and see how your creek or tidal basin may rise.

They don't want you to ever be blind sided by storm surge.
And in areas where you live in a tidal basin it happens.
You drive along in NC... 
..cute stores, Piggy Wiggly, BBQ joints.
Sense of being far inland.
But you are not.
You live in a River Tidal Basin.
Tar River Basin
Neuse River Basin.
Same in SC and GA..
In a Hurricane it floods.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

There's Matthew moving up towards GA SC NC
While scraping along NE FL doing damage now.
Tomorrow we look North.

So check on your area if you live near Matthew's path.

You know how you look down from the air flying to Miami.
The planes fly along the East Coast.
Carolinas and Georgia is a mosaic of inlets from the air..
Beautiful on the ground, so beautiful. 
They flood especially when a Hurricane is coming in from the South.
That angle in relation to some of the inlets there.
GA SC and Wilmington South

That's the coastline.
Jax FL to Jax NC
It floods. Low Country. Tidal Basins.
Creeks far inland flood like Crabtree in Raleigh.
So as far inland as Raleigh creeks rise..

Someone last night mentioned online how it's like Texas 
Similar, so here is your morning lesson in Geography.

Odd but true. 
Charleston floods easily... does Galveston.
Bays and inlets worn away by erosion.

Cities like New Bern ... the juncture of two rivers.
Trent and the Neuse River.
Water rises..

Governor of NC talking from Kinston, NC.
You know why?
They set up there... they are prone to inland flooding.

That video I posted.

Here's one far inland after the same hurricane.

So IF Matthew does not LOOP AWAY FROM THE COAST.
The ante rises like the river.
It rains slowly across a wide area.

Hurricanes are not just about Hurricane Winds.
They are not just about the EYE
They are not just about the EYE WALL.
They are not just about Storm Surge.
But Storm Surge kills.
And fresh water flooding... inland... kills.

So in 2016 there is no reason for anyone to be blind sided.
No reason not to know flooding can occur.

Being honest it's a disconnect.
Media says "Matthew missed landfall in FL"
You think "Oh its all over nothings going on"
It is doing massive damage to NE Florida as I type this..
You hear "it's going to loop back and hit Florida"
You think "oh I don't have to worry about it in Kinston, NC"

So not going to show you the loopy models.
Not going to show you the 5 day.
Going to show you the way ... need to think.

Rainfall potential

Tropical Storm Force Winds.

That is a huge population area that has TS wind probabilities.
The area along the coast has storm surge plus wind.
Inland you got wind and rivers and creeks flooding.


Note the wind map.
Now picture the ocean, storm surge not wind.
See to the North of Matthew the barbs are tight?

Those small barbs are pushing water towards the shore.
Now you get it?

Even if it does the loop the media is waxing poetic on.
The water ahead of it still piles in towards shore.
Towards homes, towns, people's lives.

I love that part of the world.
I knew I was in trouble as a Miami girl..
..when I would think on wanting to go to Pawley's Island.
Or down to Myrtle Beach or St. Mary's, Georgia
Oriental, NC... wow. NC

SC Beaufort.. confusing I know, we're like that Down South.

These are the next places in Matthew's path of drama.

And Charleston and Savannah.

I wanted to highlight the smaller spots in it's path.

I want to thank you for your patience ...
...Takes time sometimes to give a thorough discussion.
Easy to say...

Storm now looks ragged, will be weakening.
Still a strong threat for flooding.
It may loop.
Close call 35 miles off Cape.
Stay alert from Daytona to Wilmington, NC

I'm pretty sure you come here for something more.
I'll discuss models and Matthew's movement later today.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps if the Media remembered what Floyd did...
...they might think more on what they talk about.
Hopefully Rick Knabb's press conference will be shown.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Look at how much moisture it has and how much it's pulling North.
All of that moisture has to go somewhere...

We don't want anything like this to happen ever again.

Most deaths were from drownings...


At 9:01 AM, Blogger william duncan said...

As of 11am NHC update Matthew is moving NNW & looking like it has stalled. So isnt this the start of the turn we need to see in Matthew?


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