That loop in ways is more definitive than a model.
A model implies what may happen and changes often.
NOAA makes a 7 day forecast.
It also changes in real time with the models.
And changes in real time as weather evolves.
Never rely on just one source for information.
Or look at two models and expect them to verify.
Again let's not revisit the loop forecast from Matthew.
Only loop I want to look at right now is the WV Loop
You can see where the High may build in.
Where a system could incubate in the Bahamas.
And if a front sweeps it out to sea or not...
You can watch in real time.
At the top left of Spaghetti Models there are links to models.
or you can view them at www.tropicaltidbits.com
Using the beautiful green and orange Canadian Sat.
The moisture is already in play.
I'll update later today.
Note the Canadian model is more aggressive with this system.
And it is worth noting there are two areas I'm discussing. One is in the Bahamas area at the tail end of.. a front or the tail end of Nicole however you see it and the other is in the Caribbean. The models imply a pattern of where a low may form and pressures may fall. The evolution is a bit choppy on some of the models. It's also possible the convection in the Caribbean feeds into the area in the Bahamas where a quasi trough like feature develops that may become tropical or may become subtropical it's just too soon to tell. But we are watching it officially.
Does the area to the South pull North and wrap into the Bahamas blob?
Time will tell.
Seems there is some connection to Nicole.
And also a cold front that pushed through and stalled.
As cold fronts are want to do in October.
Or is the moisture in the Bahamas feeding Nicole?
Keeping Nicole alive tropically speaking.
You can find this great loop on Spaghetti Models.
Mike has such great stuff.
His birthday is tomorrow.
Remember to wish him Happy Birthday on Facebook ;)
He feeds us treats..
..some are sweet and some go BOO!
I believe his Birthday is October 17th ;)
As for me I'm a Capricorn.. ya got time.
I'm in North Carolina where the scroll goes on forever.
It is showing me this morning a Flood Warning in 2 counties still.
Well said in another Tweet below:
Meanwhile the death toll has risen to 44 in the USA from Matthew.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm