Hurricane Harbor: Updated!! 30% Bahamas Yellow Circle Bahamas Blob? Caribbean Convection.. Otto? Matthew & NC 2 Weeks Later. NW Storm. Nicole Still There.. Still Crazy After All These Years..

The yellow circle has been updated to 30%

So seems the NHC is more into it now than earlier.

Truth is there isn't much to add.

At some point they will put up a floater.

It may become an Invest.

Sooner rather than later.

Note darker colors now than this morning.

If that continues they may make it an orange circle.

And in my world I'm going into the Sukkoth holiday.

It's where we eat outsides in booths...

...and remember living the dessert once upon the time.

And luckily there is no hurricane this week.

Weather in NC is beautiful right now.

Will see how long that lasts.

Just so you have an idea.

I know equinox holiday you are thinking.

Well Hurricanes were once called equinox storms.

Please go to www.spaghettimodels.com for all your info.

And remember to wish Mike a Happy Birthday on Monday.

And keep watching those models.

I'll be back Tuesday late in the day.

Other great sites are below.

And keep reading as the info is relevant.

This was just a quick update.

www.hurricanecity.com

www.crownweather.com

www.flhurricane.com

www.tropicaltidbits.com

See you again soon.

Possibly will have a named system by then.

Or not.

October storms are often random, odd..

Otto is the next name!

* * *

So as mentioned in the previous post ....

..there IS a yellow circle today.

You may not have seen it if you went to the Main Page.

It's a small yellow x in the Bahamas.

Main page only covers the 2 Day.

I feel like it's a game of sorts.

You have to know to click on the 5 Day to see it.

Perhaps a larger 2 day with a 5 day insert?

I know I'm kvetching a lot but why not?

I'm allowed to give my thoughts.

I just would like to see it less confusing.

Sometimes it's the way the message is communicated.

Please read the previous post when you have time.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/10/caribbean-convection-models_15.html

Looking at satellite imagery notice 3 things.

1. Nicole

2. The tail from Nicole down near Florida ..

3. Convection down in the Caribbean.

Interesting isn't it?

The reason the yellow circle is in the Bahamas is it's a 5 day forecast.

Whatever evolves from various elements forms in that 5 day window.

It's a wide window and covers today thru the 5 day frame.

So stay tuned as always.

Again here are the models that show that development.

I posted more last night but here are the main two.

That's the European for Thursday.

That's the GFS for Saturday.

So you can see how this might evolve.

Again it has a 20% chance in the long term.

Let's look at the 7 day Loop and see how it has changed.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

6 Days out it shows a front dipping down.

An old stalled out font.

"Something" in the Bahamas.

That loop in ways is more definitive than a model.

A model implies what may happen and changes often.

NOAA makes a 7 day forecast.

It also changes in real time with the models.

And changes in real time as weather evolves.

Never rely on just one source for information.

Or look at two models and expect them to verify.

Again let's not revisit the loop forecast from Matthew.

Only loop I want to look at right now is the WV Loop

You can see where the High may build in.

Where a system could incubate in the Bahamas.

And if a front sweeps it out to sea or not...

You can watch in real time.

At the top left of Spaghetti Models there are links to models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

or you can view them at www.tropicaltidbits.com

Using the beautiful green and orange Canadian Sat.

The moisture is already in play.

I'll update later today.

Note the Canadian model is more aggressive with this system.

And it is worth noting there are two areas I'm discussing. One is in the Bahamas area at the tail end of.. a front or the tail end of Nicole however you see it and the other is in the Caribbean. The models imply a pattern of where a low may form and pressures may fall. The evolution is a bit choppy on some of the models. It's also possible the convection in the Caribbean feeds into the area in the Bahamas where a quasi trough like feature develops that may become tropical or may become subtropical it's just too soon to tell. But we are watching it officially.

Does the area to the South pull North and wrap into the Bahamas blob?