A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Saturday, October 15, 2016
Caribbean Convection. Models & Possibilities. US Death Toll Climbs to 42. Where's OTTO? Nicole Still Alive... Does the 2016 Hurricane Season Get the BIG O Storm? NW Storm ...Please Donate www.redcross.org
In the world of tropical speculation it's hard to clearly explain what may or may not happen down the road. And that is a long term road according to many models and no yellow circle has appeared yet on the website of the NHC. Of course I could wake up tomorrow and find a small yellow circle in the SW Caribbean that has a 10% chance of development. If so I guess I'll have to update this blog. But this post discusses possibilities that are being bandied about on air and online. And as you have asked I'm going to show some of those possibilities and discuss the pros and cons of such a system forming.
The reality is there is much discussion, innuendo and out already including graphics on TWC showing something may come up out of the Caribbean again. It seems these days unless the NHC knows how this is going to end they don't like to weigh in with a yellow circle anymore. I understand it's been hard for them. Thursday they were still trying to write off Nicole and tonight they are still putting out forecasts for the little system that formed in the strong out flow from a Category 4 Hurricane and then meandered about, swiped Bermuda missing it by an eye lash of it's well formed eye and came back once again in the distant North Atlantic. Despite doing a better than average job with a forecast track . . . their intensity forecasting has been off this year. I mean we did have a Tropical Storm form finally as it coughed up onto the Florida Peninsular. Been that sort of year and we won't even talk about the 9 storm.. u know which one I mean ;) though it's name started with the H letter.
Hurricane Nicole, 85 MPH headed E at 10 MPH.
Now what comes next one wonders? The image below shows what might be the start of something big or something that struggles for days trying to form if at all. Time will tell.
It's probable that a system tries to form in the Caribbean and yet seems to get blocked for a while by a strong High. Often systems like this find their way North even if they have to go wide right to do so. But for now all we have is some convection in the Caribbean and long range models offering various solutions. Oh and the MJO is in a sweet spot for something to develop if you are a big believer in the MJO forecasts. The convection is just visible in the image above.
I know you want to see the models.
But really do you really want to see the models?
And why? They change daily...
Let's look at the water temperatures.
It definitely has something to work with ....
..and it seems it is trying.
Note currently Nicole is still the star of the show ..
Nicole will be gone in no time.
So the models show a low trying to form.
For example like this:
But the High is to the North of it...
... REALLY a double High blocking ridge.
Talk about a face off there..
...but eventually things change.
Tropical systems so low OBX
Hmnnn don't look at the one below...
So now you are wondering on Super EURO Model right?
There's our little Low...
Euro sees a little different set up.
The outcome though is similar.
Both see a system going from the Caribbean...
...towards the Carolinas.
Not funny as the Carolinas still trying to get rid of the flood.
The flood that the remnants of Julia set the stage for..
...Hurricane Matthew to finish the job.
It's been the pattern so far this year ..
We need to watch patterns.
And yet Autumn is a pattern suddenly.
And Autumn comes winter.
Note what comes next on the 7 Day NOAA Loop.
A cold front moves down towards Florida.
We've been here before.
Let's hope it doesn't stall out.
Carolina doesn't need anymore rain.
We've had enough floods for one year.
And Florida would so love to cool off.
BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:
Watch the satellite loops and do not get lost in the battle between the EURO and GFS and stick with CLIMO. IF and when a system officially forms modelS will be run (more than just our battling duo) and we will see how strong the blocking high and the dipping cold front will be in real time. Do not start worrying on this now but do what you should always do and keep paying attention because although it is October it's not all over yet and the season runs until November some years. Another time I will discuss the weak La Nina that is forming. Something is always forming when it comes to weather. Perhaps a Caribbean system will try to form. I'm watching it, many are watching and there will be much to say on it if Otto tries to form in the Caribbean.
Until then please keep your priorities straight and find a reliable charity you like and donate whatever you can regularly to said charity. www.redcross.org being but one of the better ones. In North Carolina alone the death toll has risen to 26 people from Hurricane Matthew. Note to NHC I know officially Hurricane Matthew did NOT make landfall in North Carolina but it's misery and path of death and destruction did make it's mark in the North State on a Major Historic Level.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm