UPDATED!! NHC Drops 99L to 60% Orange Circle ..Cancels Recon Maybe Tomorrow For Otto .. 99L Creating Huge Amounts of Weather But Has NOT Formed Yet..Subtropical Quasi Tropical Storm

NHC drops odds down to 60% in 5 Days.

8 PM came out closer to 7 PM

I'm not surprised.

It still has an orange circle.

Still has a chance to form.

Before a cold front forecast to move down...

...picks it up and takes it out to sea.

Stay tuned.

Keep reading ..

Only thing I want to add is this loop.

You can see how the energy is oozing North...

Into the general vicinity of 99L

Capped by the dry air to the North.

Something may develop....

Looks diffuse on the loop below.
Hard to define a center.
A broad area of swirling weather.

Again the swirling center trying to form is on the left.

The convection is on the right.

Not there yet.

Sometimes I feel as if I am translating the NHC product to explain what really is going on. That's basically because it's often a puzzle you put together product by product. And that is indeed how a forecast is put together. You don't just look at one picture or roll the dice, you study the situation using various products from various sources. In the end it's not always easy to predict just when a Subtropical system will or won't develop. And often the subtropical becomes a tropical system. In school you got to put a sun on the blackboard if you were lucky for the day's weather or the teacher drew snow on the board. It's not so simple.

This will be a short post as today is a day to watch and wait to see what will happen. The NHC had recon scheduled and then they pulled the plug on that keeping the reservation to go out tomorrow if conditions warrant. Hey I woke up to my local news station showing a graphic of 87 degrees today as a possible record breaking high, the range from channel to channel being 85 to 87 showing how low confidence there is by some on the lower range of the high forecast temperatures.  Spoiler alert.. NOT wearing leggings today but the most summery clothes I have in the closet.

8 AM NHC has an Orange X NE of Bahamas

For geography buffs that's the edge of the Sargasso Sea

When things are tropical the flow usually is West.

Around the huge high.

But when you get these subtropical systems they try to go NE

Tropical systems like going North.

They try getting North any way they can.

So this formation ZONE is put out by the NHC.

Somewhere in this red jelly bean a storm may form.

80% chances over the next FIVE days

The satellite image from the NHC is shown here.

Note the 1 is actually down near the Islands.

The X where it is trying to form NE of the Bahamas.

The dialogue that explains this map is shown below:

Note they are discussing what I discussed yesterday.

The heavy rainfall along the Greater Antilles.

Great meaning LARGE in this case.. Hispaniola 

Puerto Rico and the North Leeward Islands.

A picture is not always worth a thousand words.

But it is pretty.

Back on Sunday or Saturday Night I wrote...

A monsoonal sort of trof may set up between the two areas.

The ongoing convection in the Caribbean and the area in the Bahamas.

That is what happens often in October.

Eventually the energy from below oozes North.

Slides and wraps it's way into the core area.

In a backward C shape cloud formation.

A subtropical often forms.

If so it would be Subtropical Storm Otto.

And sometimes moisture remains down below.

Cut off from the forming cyclonic system.

And we worry on that another day.

This loop above shows that drama.

The area forming closer in to the Bahamas.

The oozing of energy NE across the Caribbean.

Keep watching you will eventually see a cold front.

Later in the week when I put leggings back on..

The front carries Otto or whatever it is NNE out to sea.

There are a few models that break with the pack.

And bring it close to land in New England.

A lot depends on...

1. IF Otto forms.

2. How Otto interacts with the front.

Models:

So as I said today is the day to watch and wait.

Patiently. 

An interesting convectional ballet going on in the atmosphere.

I'll be back with updates as warranted.

You can make a donation to help the victims of Matthew easily.

At the local ATM at Wells Fargo.

At Harris Teeter I believe as well.

Several large corporations are pitching in.

And there is always the Red Cross.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps... Keep watching. 

I keep wondering why we don't call them Quasi Tropical Storms ;)

Oh look....they did once upon the time in October...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/quasits1956.html