Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 21, 2016

UPDATD NHC Drops 99L to 30% Yellow .. Models Still Show Development. Big, Huge System... In Colder Water. October Maybes..

Note the loop shows 99L and the cold front.

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The front is forecast to move through Florida.
It has very little moisture, a dry sort of front.
I'm sure people in Florida will be thrilled.
Up here in Carolina I'm wearing boots tonight.
Maybe taking a jacket with a hood just in case.
99L really spins nicely.
But it has failed to totally wrap.
And the NHC is dropping it's chances 10% at a time.
Note should it look better that may change.
If it doesn't totally catch the front... 
...they will change it in real time.
But for now it is forecast to catch it's ticket out to sea.
And even though the odds are down... stood could surprise us and form into something.
Doubtful but they left it at 30% for now.

I want to mention something Matthew related. The Kroger in Raleigh by me has large gallons of water on pallets out for people to buy. Seems people need them in many areas in the affected areas and people are coming up here to buy and taking them back to where they live. All that water yet some small areas still have been told to boil water just in case. Seems odd to see large pallets of gallons of water with no hurricane headed to town. But the after affects of Matthew are still visible. A lot of power trucks around town fixing lights, street lights and working in areas where there was heavy tree damage. Up here every neighborhood has it's own issues tree wise as the suburbs have planted trees and pines that spouted everywhere. Older, beautiful neighborhoods have hardwoods that snap faster and take longer to clean up. And economics affects everything as people in wealthy areas such as North Raleigh have had the trees taken chopped up and carted away and often the landscaper fixed the yard as if nothing had changed. I saw someone rebuilding a stone fence and several roofers working on large homes nearby. In areas where people live from pay check to pay check trees are still down in yards, semi chopped up and moved out of the street. Sometimes you got to drive around a bit to see the damage Matthew left behind. At the Country Club crews were out fixing everything up fast, yet many have not yet been able to put their yard back together again.

And... Halloween candy and costumes are on sale in Kroger Supermarket here for 50% BEFORE Halloween which seems odd. I asked and spoke to a manager. Seems they are not selling well so far and they want to make sure they move them out so they can put up the next holiday's things fast. So they are on clearance sale before the Holiday even gets going. Again people who may have lost work or had to pay out of pocket to take the old Oak tree off their house, fix their broken windows and buy paint and other minor supplies do not have a gold mine to pay for Halloween this year. Many people are buying things and taking them to friends and relatives down near Lumberton who have lost all their belongings and are living in shelters until someone fixes things. A story on the news shows a small Country Club in Moore County is having problems as their private dam that the Country Club owns has to fix it and they haven't done so yet. Obviously that dam affects more than their property.... In truth there are many small private dams and lakes that are in need of fixing as neighborhood groups try to put their lives back together again.

Matthew may be gone but his affects linger on. In Raleigh the 80 degree temperatures are gone and the cold front is moving in. It rained for the first time since Hurricane Matthew was in so the dry air that held in tight after the last front is gone. People are standing in lines to vote as we move fast towards the Election. Life goes on as an old friend is want to say...

You can see the front draped over my house in NC.
You can see 99L out there over a large area.
Taking up lots of real estate..
And the loop below shows the drama.

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The rest of this post explains much if you haven't yet read it.
Nice song at the end. 
Stay tuned as always I'll update as needed.
Thanks for your patience.
Wasn't feeling well earlier. 
That time of year.. change of seasons. 
Hopefully not the flu and just allergies.
Please keep reading...

The window for development is slowing shutting on Invest 99L. You can watch on the Water Vapor Loop below the flow to the East across the Country. Behind the Eastward movement is a push from the colder realms....down to the Southeast towards Florida and then out towards the Atlantic. There is moisture trapped or hiding in a bubble just North of the Bahamas. There are many technical scientific meteorological terms I could use to explain this set up but I haven't had coffee yet and they aren't that important. It's more a history lesson than a scientific one.  Come back next year or the year after and you will see it again and again. So let's suffice this to say this is a typical sort of climatological feature and they often try to make a run at a name, some fame and a run up the coast. Works easier in other places than where it sits right now. Usually they do not make it as it's a very short timing window and then mixing metaphors the door slams shut. That door is pretty much called Winter. Though still there are areas where the tropics flare up in years when we have both cold fronts and stalled out fronts and the water to the South is still warm. So we watch.

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I'm going to update this later today so check back.

Models for this system exist...
Much agreement short term.
Less on the long term.

Much like the moisture at the tail end of that front.
It is forecast to push through.
But it's a moving target.

The other day it said it would rain early in the morning.
Be gone by the afternoon.
Then it said later in the morning.
Last night it said mid day.
Now we are looking at rain in Raleigh at 5ish.
It's a very ISH time of year.

I'll be back later with more insight.
And more definitive information.
It's not bothering anyone.
Well.. perhaps it's bothering a few forecasters.

Look at it.
Backward C
Bright dot in middle.
Big huge swatch of convection far from the center.

I'll be back, check back later.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Enjoy the music....


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