Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Lorenzo and Narda... Center Stage in Both Basins. And... What Will Happen in October?

6 PM Update Sunday evening.




 I made two short videos to explain some thoughts.
I've been partially resting today and cooking.
Wegman's opened in Raleigh.
Shopped for the Jewish New Year.
I now have Apple Crumb Babke to serve.
It's like a huge danish with apples inside.
And going out to friends, but cooking also.
Been looping and looking at models.
Models actually show the trouble I've been talking on...

The very long range GFS.


Now this is the GFS... and it's October 15th
Models will change often.
But this is an example of what I've been talking about.


The Euro that doesn't go out as far as the GFS...
...also shows something in the SW Carib.
It's a mix of the current set up and Climo.
How strong it gets...where it goes??
It's too soon to know.
But we do know it's a concern.
And to watch carefully.
Another view below ...
...a tropical wave North of Hispaniola. 




As for me I'm doing the Jewish New Year.
That means (for newbies) I'll be offline.
From Sunday at sunset until Tuesday at sunset.
It's quiet right now with the exception of Lorenzo.
Watch the tropics but enjoy the quiet times.
www.spaghettimodels.com is your best source...
...for everything you need.
Know he has a Twitter feed on his page.
Bottom Right.
And all the people I follow are on it...
...so you'll always be up to date.
Many other great people to point to...
...but going with his one stop shop there.

May you all be blessed with happiness...
Love, laughter and the money to enjoy what you want.
And health... 
And let's keep those hurricanes far away.
Hopefully Great Britain & Ireland will be okay.

I remember when I was a kid and saw a movie.
Ryan's Daughter. 
There was this crazy wild storm.
And so I was told they are used to wild storms.
But not sure they are used to ones like Lorenzo.
Melissa next name up ..
Unless a close in storm forms....
...it should form in the Caribbean.
Been a year of surprises so time will tell.

I'll be back Tuesday Night.
Much Love, 
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm at Twitter and Instagram.
(as always if you haven't read, keep reading)



The tropics above in all their beauty.
2 Cyclones tell the whole story.
Not very complicated today.
Cat 4 Lorenzo....
...a large, dangerous Tropical Storm Narda.
And Narda is along the coast and causing impacts.
Life threatening dangerous impacts.
So what Narda doesn't have in strength...
..it makes up for in size and sheer weather.



I woke up this morning to 155 MPH Lorenzo.
Impressive and stubbornly strong.


In the EPAC we have close in Narda




Cone for Lorenzo remains the same.
Slow movement and then.....
It takes off like a rocket.
Aiming at Ireland.
And Great Britain.


Narda is trying to slice the Gulf of California.
Some storms do it, it's rare but it happens.
And it brings life threatening deadly concerns.
Mountainous terrain doesn't mix well with Tropical Storms.
Flash floods and mudslides wipe whole towns away.


And dangerous, heavy tropical rain falls along the coast.
The whole time impacting Mexico and the Baja region.


And then the rain moves up across Mexico into Texas.
And beyond creating other impacts.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

Again check that out below.
What begins in the EPAC...
..doesn't stay in the Pacific this time.



And as we move into October...
We need to watch and wait and see what happens.
Something will happen.
It's not a matter of one model run...
... or living and dying by models.
It's more waiting for it to come.
The pattern is set up for something.
Will it go further West and impact Texas?
or the Central Gulf of Mexico.
Or be pulled sharper right towards Florida.
Fronts are on the move and dipping.
That ups the ante for problems...
..when something forms in the Gulf of Mexico.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)


We just really watch and wait.
Enjoy the beauty of Lorenzo from a distance.
Wonder what happens to Narda moisture.
This period of "Indian Summer" will soon leave.
Fronts are scheduled to show up this coming week.
And our focus shifts towards the Carib and the GOM.
But we are always watching the whole basin.



I'll update later today.
Have a wonderful Sunday.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Just remember Hurricane Season isn't about the Summer.
It's about the Fall... that's when real trouble happens.
Summer goes away and kids go back to school.
Vacation is over......
and yet the Hurricane Season ain't over yet!




posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:36 AM 0 comments

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo, Cat 5 King of the Atlantic Road. Full Blog Sunday Morning...


Cat 5!!!!!




Ireland in the Cross Hairs.
Forecast to be a Tropical Storm at landfall.
But... it's 5 days out so much could change.
But so impressive.

Worth noting NHC didn't have it at 160 MPH.
Interesting to see what the next models show.
Well ...with regard to down the road.


Earliest winds cone....
Below we see how long it's strong.



 If you are keeping track....
...this is the 2nd Cat 5 this season.

And many had questions a few days ago.
When Hurricane Recon left the hurricane...
...but kept flying around.


That's got to be the first time...
...I've heard them do that.
Sad story with regard to Hurricane Lorenzo.

If you haven't read or looked at the pictures.
Keep reading.


Good loop of Lorenzo over time.
Great Tweet.





Quick update on Hurricane Lorenzo that is a Category 4 Hurricane and I was obviously wrong the other day when I thought it had peaked. In truth, early on, I thought it would hit Cat 4 and wondered how high it could go ... entertaining Cat 5 strength. But, it had some issues it had to deal with and it did and it just took off for the races intensity wise. I was very offline most of Thursday and Friday and on 4 strong medications so still a bit out of it. But I'll update the blog Sunday AM on Lorenzo and more so other possibilities for October as well as somethings out there currently being ignored. Day by day I'm getting better but WHOAH not like Lorenzo. Key Messages from NHC below.

 Note they are expecting it to maintain Major Hurricane Status for a long while.  Note that as this moves up into the higher latitudes it will help flick the switch on and move things around in a big way and cool air should finally descend down onto those of us in the East Coast (especially the South) basting in very warm weather for September; note it's nowhere near as bad as it was back in May and June as it cools off at night and we know a cold front it on the way in a few days. Another system should form and impact the Gulf of Mexico and or parts of Florida down the road and that will do the same for our seasons in the US though Lorenzo seems to have a real global impact weather wise as it moves the warmth from the tropics up to the poles and dislodges cooler air down our way... eventually.


Wind Probabilities show Azores in the Cross hairs.
Hopefully not the strongest winds.
Seems Lorenzo holding out for Great Britain.


Simply beautiful.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

If this doesn't show up in the blog...
This is the close up of Lorenzo.


Wondering if there was life on Jupiter....
..if they'd be wondering what that red spot on the Earth is..


Just King of the Tropical Road


Close u view of the eye.
Look at the explosive orange cells in the tail.

Wide view.


So you can see how this is a Global Hurricane.
Not some small system nipping at Florida or Texas.


Close up. 
What a fighter.


Colorful wall art :)


That's it. 
I have a lot to do tonight.
Jewish New Year begins Sunday Night.
So doing a bit of baking now.
And playing on Twitter.

I'll update Sunday morning with a full blog.

Sweet Tropical Dreams of Lorenzo

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.







posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:46 PM 0 comments

Friday, September 27, 2019

Tropics Friday. Karen's Chapter Ending. Lorenzo For Now Spinning Beautiful. What Else is Down the Road in the Tropics? Time Will Tell in this Circle Game.


We can see Karen slowly coming apart.
Lorenzo taking up half the ocean it seems.





Hard to find a "Tropical Storm" where Karen is...
Lorenzo yeah...
The ULL is off the coast of FL.. visible.

Cones and facts below.


Karen's ever diminishing cone above.
Lorenzo below.



Lorenzo's wind path...
...far from land.

Discussion.


Some fluctuations in intensity are expected....

The last chapters are being written on Karen currently as the NHC has downgraded her to Tropical Depression status ... kind of breaking the news to her gently I suppose... as we all knew this was happening though not sure Karen expected it. Karen has always been able to "pulse up" when needed, but as we saw with the overwhelming shear aimed at Jerry... she too will respond in kind and in theory go quietly off into the books for 2019. She was always a questionable tropical storm vs a strong tropical disturbance, though to stay together so long there was probably some center there holding her together even if the NHC and recon had problems at times trying to pin it do
wn. Karen impacted several places with strong, heavy rains, flooding and creating power outages.


Good discussion from NHC. You can see from the image above this chapter seems to be ending for Karen and Lorenzo will take a long time to come apart as it's incredibly big, beautiful and far out at sea not hurting anyone.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT3+shtml/271442.shtml

Lorenzo is still "oh my gosh gorgeous" but on it's way, stair stepping down in intensity as hurricanes like people have a prime period in their life that can never be totally maintained but he will be remembered for being strong like Hurricane Gabrielle was years ago in 1989. 


Lorenzo above.
Gabrielle below.


Note hos similar Lorenzo and Gabrielle look.
And yesterday Lorenzo looked more like Gabrielle.

Link to info on a forgotten intense hurricane.
Overshadowed by it's brother Hugo in 1989

And looking forward.

Remember to watch the tail end of fronts.
We are scheduled to have strong fronts soon.
And strong fronts race through and then...
...go flat somewhere off the East Coast.
Sometimes in the Gulf of Mexico.

There's a lot of model innuendo...
..and discussion by good meteorologists.
On something forming in mid October.
Don't hold me to October 15th...
2nd week to end I'd say.
Weather is FLUID.
So it dances to it's own tune.
We try and keep up.
Models adjust in real time.
Then the NHC adjusts in real time.
Being honest they are very model driven now.
Being honest we all are.

Going to rest the rest of the day.
And I'll update Sunday.
I was pretty sick.
Why do we say "pretty sick" I don't know.
No one is "pretty" when that sick.
But on the road to recovery.
Even without make up I look better than Karen.

So models for way out into the future.
And know any front that delivers a punch...
...could deliver tornadoes somewhere.
...and then possibly tropical development.
Time will tell.



Far off in the distance images of GFS and EURO.
Both show a dangling cold front...
..parked over warm water.
So keep that in mind while...
...looking for pumpkins this week.
Or doing the Jewish New Year.
Fall... end of summer.
Beginning of the new year.
Winter off in the distance...
Summer moves into the rear view mirror.
Transition of time.
Prime time for Major Hurricanes way too often.

2 long term images from www.windy.com
When you have time they are good to donate to.
As Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com says..
I give a $5 tip at a restaurant....
... give them a tip they are helpful.
That goes with Levi Cowan too.
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Cost them money to run those sites.
I write... no real costs involved.
Even if I give valuable information.
I write the way Mike talks.
We can both go on and on forever.

So where do we go from here?
I'm going offline.
Letting antibiotics knock my infection out.
Now that the tooth issue is gone.
And I mean that literally...
The sinus issue is center stage.
Antibiotics bugging my stomach.
I'll save you the details.
But I had a huge headache last night.
So stayed offline...

Resting, drinking tea.
(not too warm because oral surgery)
And hey got lots of Halo Ice Cream!
Watching fall color from my window.
The view from my bed.


That tree rarely shows color until late October.
It's early this year.
I think Dorian may have shaken it up.
I remember after Matthew that happened.
Or winter will come soon...
Heard a rumor of 40s and 50s October 4th or 5th.
Time will tell.

But know while y'all complaining how hot it is..
...on the East Coast and in the Deep South.
It's cold and stormy with early snow in the NW.
Eventually winter will show up here too!


Have a beautiful Fall Weekend!
Or an Indian Summer Weekend!
Enjoy the experience... 
... it's part of a change.

Karma is funny. In 1989 I thought on naming a baby Gabrielle if it was a girl as I was expecting and Gabrielle was a beautiful storm. It was a boy, his name is Mendy (common name in Chabad) and then I found out my Great, Great, Great Grandfather's name was Gabriel doing Ancestry and laughed thinking how close we were... a few months ago my daughter had a baby boy and her husband is an Israeli and they chose the name Gabriel for my grandson. I told my son-in-law that was amazing, you knew it was a family name? He smiled and shook his head no and said "what goes around comes around" and it's true. So I ended up with a grandson Gabriel vs a daughter named Gabrielle. Both good names and yet many forget Gabrielle because 1989 was all about Hugo. 2019 is far from over... and come December looking back we will see if any hurricane comes along that rivals Dorian and though that sounds impossible... last year this time of year we had no thoughts on Michael becoming a Cat 5 landfalling hurricane. The tropics always hold surprises, much like life.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


Ps... I don't go personal as much these days.. but my daughter Miriam (Gabriel's mother) is an artist as is her brother and another sister... art runs in our veins whether we are painting, writing or creating music. The video reminded me of Miriam doing art somewhere... won't say where...
And sorry for any typos, writing today was therapeutic (it's a blog.. diary online) and going to leave it however it ends up... so hope you enjoyed.



My brother Ron took a picture...
...he's into photography.


Big circle there.. like an eye.
Miami Marine Stadium....
...waiting to come to life again.
Artists kept it alive.
Old pictures.
Miriam on the left and Rivky on the right.
Not twins... but they used to play the twin game.


We're captive on the carousel of time... 
enjoy the ride always.






















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posted by BobbiStorm @ 10:05 AM 0 comments

Thursday, September 26, 2019

4 PM Update. Karen & Lorenzo and the Circle of Life in the Tropics. What Will Form in October? October is Coming, Prepare, Be Aware... Stay Prepared Hurricane Season Ends November 30th.




Note once again the ULL near Karen...
..is the big player here.
More than the ridge later.
We need to learn more about how they work.


I'm going to be honest with you all ... it's been a long 24 hours for me. I went to the doctor yesterday with sinus issues that I'm used to and was given medication to deal with that... this morning I woke up in more pain from what is obviously a dental issue made worse by me grinding my teeth in pain from the sinus problem. Very typical...add in Fall allergies in NC so decided I'm done and need to go to the dentist for advice and the good news is I have a new dentist who I like. The bad news was she insisted on pulling some molar way up in the back of my mouth near where her Xray's showed "wow my sinus infection was bad" ... so yeah that happened and now I'm on 3 antibiotics (really) and some Tylenol 3 which is not as good as Tylenol 4 but definitely helpful in explaining why I've been missing in action and couldn't get back to you regarding the state of Karen. To be totally honest... except for the fact that I put make up on in Sephora while waiting for my medicine... she's in much better shape right now than me.

That said... the NHC is dying to write her off and drop her like a hot potato (note I can eat mashed potatoes tomorrow...) but like the annoying, pissant mess Karen has been she's got this spark inside that seems to flair up and pulse up beautiful the moment the NHC says in discussion that they are pulling the plug most likely. What really bugs me about this is .........often systems that refuse to die and fade away are the ones that end up being problems. But... Jerry died despite trying to stay alive despite tons of shear being blown at it and Jerry had more of a center than Karen ever has so.................. what will the NHC do?

In truth it's not really an issue because at some point one of three things should happen.

1. It falls apart into an area of squally weather at most a Tropical Depression revived after being downgraded and as it smells land... it pulses up and creates lots of rain and people complain why was it downgraded and the NHC tries to explain without using curse words why it was downgraded. A tropical storm needs a closed center with convection around the center and winds of a certain category and Karen has always been questionable on that YET... the fact that it keeps pulsing up shows something is there other than just rain. (Add in Alanis song... rain on your wedding day ... wink)

2...If unravels and somehow some of the convection crosses over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and festers there the way it did everywhere else and maybe forms into something there... very low chances.

3... Karen falls apart and eventually the next front picks up it's moisture and takes it all the way to Europe ... or some place far away where remnants of tropical systems go..

And either way even if Karen dies in the middle of the ocean it is still far from any land. Let's put it this way, so many days from land that you wouldn't even pack for it if it was a weekend trip. Again things can change...there is always that possibility with anything tropical or weather in general. First week in October an incredible front is forecast to push down and create worse weather than any model has forecast for Karen.

So just enjoy Karen and Lorenzo and know that for the next several days we are not having to really worry about it ... but it's Hurricane Season until the end of November so always watch the tropics but keep it in perspective!

That's it. I'm not updating today unless something huge happens and going to rest, and take my 3 medications and enjoy the slight buzz from the Tylenol 3 and maybe sip some water the rest of the day.

That's it from the BobbiStorm Blog... diary of a weather person who researches, has chased and loves weather and hopefully I can help you better understand the complicated process that goes on behind the scenes in trying to figure out the forecast and whether to worry on a hurricane or just know it's out there and not a threat today. But... again that first week in October it's forecast to have a strong front and mid October possibly a tropical threat and lastly.. another storm forms behind Lorenzo but how far does it get?

Complete update tomorrow. If you haven't read already please do so and for my close friends here yes I'm following doctors orders and I''m resting...   really. I'll be on Twitter watching in real time as everyone tries to second guess Karen.

Sweet tropical dreams, BobbiStorm @bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



Trying to keep today's blog short and sweet or at least an easy quick read. Karen as of 5 AM was still a Tropical Storm. The NHC wrote a long discussion that you can read below that sounded more like an editorial and an explanation on why Karen needs to be kicked out of school. Yes, it's true I didn't think there was much left of her last night, but she has put on quite the show this morning. Round convective ball with some attempt at banding, but suddenly the NHC seems concerned as to whether she has a center which I do find is kind of ironic because she looked way worse yesterday and they couldn't find a real center but stuck with her. I understand many models took her to Florida as "something" and that amps up attention, yet many models kill her off before getting there so are we reporting the expected ending or dealing with what is today at this moment. She looks better than she did but her end game is not a pretty one at this point. The NHC unravels her into an open wave, remnant low or whatever the popular phrase is this particular year. Discussion from the NHC below.


Been saying for a while not to get lost in the models and just see what she does and that's what I'm doing as the models have swung around wildly ... even more wildly than the expected dance between Jerry and Karen. The models really have not been good this year, especially as it relates to long term motion vs short term. The 3 day is almost always a given. 

Speaking of Jerry...
... they aren't talking on him anymore.
Yet he and Karen still have strong signatures..
...on Earthnull.


Showing you this because it's interesting.
This sort of Figure 8 of winds.
Early on I talked on how they were connected.
Amazingly after all this time...
...they are still connected.


Currently Karen is forecast to die.
Before ever getting to Florida.
According to the NHC
They have it as a Depression way East of Florida.
East of the Bahamas.
Will see what they do next.

They've become great with headlines.





As for Lorenzo... out at sea.
Swirling around.
Beautiful Major Hurricane.
Safely out at Sea


Eye of Lorenzo below.


Compare with Karen.
Karen is a WEAK TS.
Yet has some explosive cells in there today.


Another view.... 
Karen our big bright ball of clouds.
Dry air over Florida
(wanted to show that)
And moisture from the Caribbean...
...curving up towards the Yucatan.
Into the Gulf of Mexico.


I watched this for a long time last night.
It's bugging me.
It's perfectly aligned with climo for October.
And we are almost into October.

Remember something.
All these fronts with their high pressure ridges..
..protect the East Coast from hurricanes.
(some get thru, it's all in the timing)
But come October... later in Fall.
Those same fronts suck storms up towards land.
What forms in the Gulf of Mexico...
...makes landfall somewhere.
So this bugs me.


And on time with Climo there's the moisture flow.
Models sniffing out development...
..the development I've written about for a while.

Will it be a strong but mishaped tropical storm?
Or a well developed hurricane?
I can list so many examples.
But keeping this short.

So watch the ongoing Karen Drama.
Enjoy the beauty of Lorenzo.
And stay tuned.

My concern currently.
Not for the next day or so...
...but down the road.
Sooner rather than later.
Our focus moves South.



2 issues here.
Taking some meds for a sinus infection so...
...going to rest today and stop watching Karen.

Secondly with regard to this area in the GOM.
October and November in the Tropics.
On any given day... given week.
It depends where the moisture is....
...but it depends on where the fronts are moving.
On any given day that track can change.

Miami gets October hurricanes from the SW.
Tampa got slammed in October.
Big Bend and Panhandle always in play.
Alabama... Mississippi earlier than later.
Just a matter of time before something forms.

Something to remember.
For today enjoy yourselves.
Nothing threatening us ...
... give Thanks and..
Hey Thanksgiving is coming ;)

Pumpkin Pie or Pecan?
Pecan Pie or Apple?

I know we aren't even in Halloween.
But the seasons are a circle.
They go round and round...
...the way the world turns.

Have a wonderful day.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

 Ps.. nice video for you all... I know this song means much to many, but when we are talking tropical systems they are circles with a center or they are really just rainstorms with lots of bright clouds on satellite imagery. And these days the rules are kind of blurred... but it is what it is. And hurricanes form and then they are gone.... many as soon as they see a hurricane form begin to discuss when it's going to fall apart ... enjoy the hurricane looking good stop trying to be the first to figure out when it dies. Lorenzo ain't bothering anyone enjoy it... then it will be gone to wherever hurricanes go when they die. The moisture moves around the planet.. some end up in England or Iceland or rain themselves out over Canada... then plants grow from their rain and flowers bloom briefly before snow begins to fall and our seasons slip away. It's all part of the circle of life... enjoy each moment in the story... in the circle... in the loop of life.






posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:11 AM 0 comments