Chantal Out To Sea, Tropics A Bit Quiet Tonight

A lot of hype about the season starting now that we are about to go into Prime Time August yet a storm that was minimal that was on the maps about 24 hours is not exactly big news. Unless you live in Nova Scotia or New Foundland.

Jim Williams did make a really good webcast today. He mentioned a regatta that might be affected, more than I heard anywhere on TV about Chantal's real life as a "Tropical Storm" Jim makes it real... he is real. He is very good at what he does.
Even though a storm is far away from Miami and Houston and Charleston it still does affect people somewhere and he brings that point home by doing his homework and caring. You can all learn a lot from Jim doing his update at hurricane city.

So... looking around the basin there are some areas to watch and the Canadian model still develops my wave down there by the islands that I like but...it is really still a blob of convection with some low pressure connected to it..nothing more.

I've been a little silly today. A little down. A litle realistic.

Life goes on as my favorite minister likes to say and be it a tornado or a hurricane or death.. life still goes on. Somewhere a baby is born, a wave rolls off of Africa and the moon rises and sets even if the clouds are in the way and you can't watch it ....

HurricaneCity is a great place to spend your time with good friends, some I know offline and most I know online and... if you want to know what's happening in the tropics check with Chris and DM and Target and Canetrakker and well ... they all contribute and I leave out names (sorry) but the point I am trying to make is:
I am so thankful for the gang at HurrCity and to Jim for keeping it going. I'm thankful for my job and my kids and my friends and my son's dog who guards over me and barks too much when a guy comes over I date... and... well she must have been my old dog in a previous life time .......

But..... for tonight, the tropics are quiet tonight.
Tomorrow... August... Get Ready, Remember September.
Happy August.. get ready but today we can say goodbye to Chantal.. who will not be around much more... move it on down the line, next...
nite.. chow for now, Bobbi

Ps
For all of my friends who put up with me :) as I do them.. I love you, stay safe and smile. Life does go on...

Sad News: Bob Burpee Passes Away

I opened my email after lunch and received an email from a friend at HRD that said "sad news" and I was afraid to click on it because I was sure someone had passed on.

I've received emails that asked for prayers.. but "sad news" is indeed sad news.

Bob Burpee passed away early this morning. He had been ill for a while. Still... very sad.

Bob was Director of the National Hurricane Center from 1995 to 1997. He took the job when Bob Sheets retired and Jerry Jarrell was the man who replaced Bob Burpee.

He had an amazing career that went back way before he took control of the NHC and he has many friends there and around the country who will cherish their memories and mourn his loss.

Very sad. I know people at both NHC and HRD feel badly today.
I know I do.

I saw him last summer at the Hurricane Hunters Reunion at NHC/HRD and he looked old, frail and not 64 but much older.

He will be missed.
Bobbi

Services may be on Friday.. awaiting final information and confirmation. I'm sure there will be much written online.

The pic is from his days at NHC when Andrew in the background on the computer monitor was heading our way..

You know there are some people.. men and women who were involved in the old Weather Service (Noaa is really only a bit over 30) who worked in research, flew planes, progged storms by hand and were involved in seeding projects and other projects to try and help protect our lives and gain more knowledge about hurricanes..they are heroes.. amazing heroes. Unsung heroes.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hurricane_Center

Looking For Love while waiting for TD4?

Okay, I have looped so many loops I am getting loopy.

So decided to start a NEW blog.. because I want to, because I can. If they can name Subtropical TD 3 Chantal I can start a new blog.

So... while waiting for the 5pm to come out if there are any really cool weather guys out there who are looking for someone to spend Shabbos with in Paradise?

Email me at
http://bracha4marriage.blogspot.com/2007/07/new-website-for-jewish-singles-to-find.html

:)

As for the weather.. watch out
Are you Jewish and looking for love in all the wrong places then try posting your comments.. and I'll try to figure out how to get a real website.

Lots of luck trackers and lovers.. Bobbi

Chantal Becomes a Subtropical BUT.. Worried on the Gulf and Atlantic

Okay, the name Chantal was sort of wasted in my opinon and is a officially a Subtropical Storm with a name..they can up the numbers to 3 but are they really, really SURE it's worthy of a name?

I think it's a good debate but there are bigger things to worry on..

There is a system forming in the Gulf Of Mexico that some models have played with and predicted would develop. The shear there is minimal and there is high pressure aloft and often times storms form at the bottom of frontal systems and that might be what is happening as we speak.

Worth watching because of it's proximity to the coasts that might have to tangle with a rapidly forming Tropical Storm.

Next... wave in the Atlantic is still there. It pulsed up all night and in all the right places. This wave has always had a low pressure center and the center has been.. in the center and when it pulses you can see it could develop into something big. One model develops it big.. most ignore it while they dream of some cute weather girl doing the news in Miami... ahhh the fickle models.

Either way, anyway.. this wave is one to watch.

Posting some links below to link to and loop. Keep watching.

There is one model shown below that seems to have been taking speed late last night, personally think the Miami Dade Police should bust it for using some sort of illegal substance but well.. it's a model... and it does develop a few storms so we will be watching for the next run and to see if the GFS or the GFDL can bother with the wave or the gulf in their next run.

Stay tuned.
Short post.. back later. Okay...short for me...

Is something developing in the GOM?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Model shows something to think on but not to bet money on:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007073100&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

My beautiful rainbow roll.. loop... beautiful view of the tropics!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

2 Invest from NRL.. Watching both systems

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Just thought I would throw this in..

You can watch the tracks evolve and sats from the most wonderful skeetobite site!

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

Will see what the discussion is at 5pm.. for now..

There's something to talk about ..

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

later, Bobbi

Possible, probable Tropical Depression Forming In Atlantic...

Surprise Surprise Surprise as Gomer Pyle used to say..

A lot of surprised people waking up today going to look at Invest 98 and poof.. it's gone and 99 is up.

Hearing a lot of bah humbug from the big weather guys who still want to track the bahama mama and don't want to believe yet in the Atlantic Wave that may become Chantal by tomorrow.. *MAYBE*

Down in the Atlantic eyeing Barbados north..

Models did not pick up on this and IF this develops let this be a good lesson to Colonel Lauterbach that models are iffy on predicting development AND intensity. They work best when there is something to work with.. QuikScat however picks up what is there vs what we want to believe is or isn't there.

IF this develops... chalk one up for QuikScat vs the Models.

Beautiful girl, really beautiful little wave with rudimentary band like features, a center of circulation and cruising along south of the SAL and without too much shear.

Ships model came in high with a strong hurricane dancing around Hispanola somewhere between 108 hours and 130.. Stay tuned.

Though models were flirting with the blob in the Bahamas this little wave started cranking. Been watching her most of the day during work and was too amazed to type.. that for me is a lot!

So.. go figure..

Just when you thought it was safe to take a cruise to the tropics.. something wicked this way comes... forms... pops up.

WHAM BAM THANK YOU MAAM as if it had always been there..

Remind me to check the BAMN..

over and out but will be back with more info to see if this is a one day wonder or the real thing..

beautiful, simply beautiful to watch a tropical system come together

watch her spin... with a name...without a name... watch her spin

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

Summer Sundays and Fantasy Canes. Invest For Developing Tropical System

A lot going on here but not going anywhere scary unless you live in Bermuda.
A system developing in this part of the Atlantic could put Bermuda under the gun however it's a long shot as it's a small island and a big ocean and the storm hasn't formed yet.

NRL has invest up and all the models are bullish on development.
Layman's translation. Probably going to have Chantal form in the Atlantic as a minimal Tropical Storm.. possibly crank up and spin out to sea.

Then again if the High does something funky.. could be something to worry on but most likely not.

It's so low down in the tracker/chaser's mind that it barely has anyone posting on it.

Most people are posting on fantasy canes the models keep spinning up off the coast of Africa. One model had consistently had a big storm around August 12th or 13th taking a swipe at Puerto Rico and then moving on like Jaws towards South Florida. This morning that model backed off.. check back later.

Yes... my friends and I are playing fantasy cane.. like fantasy football.

Speaking of football.. Ginn family has signed with the Fins so we are set to go!

My son is watching the Marlins hoping to see Barry Bonds hit the big one.

RedSox kicked ass yesterday.. go sox.

And as for me............... if I am really going to fantasize on something it will be tall, dark and handsome ;)

Going to brunch with Sharon.
Sharon is back.
Bless her traveling little heart.. so gonna go have brunch with my best friend.

Keep watching..

Model here develops a Carib system.. that's new

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2006102512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Watch The Rains Down In Africa... only real game in town

Been a long week and not much to write home about. Well, maybe but sort of a long shot and going to sit, wonder, ponder, fantasize and pray but that's neither tropical nor meteorological.

You can pray for me too!

Pray Bobbi finds what she needs, the desires of her heart at pray4bobbi@prayers.com

Okay, I'm being silly.

Back to the weather...

Not much happening. Some storms in the Gulf of Mexico but I don't think they are forming into anything with a name anytime soon. Stay tuned.

Atlantic has some weather in it.. high, low, upper level lows everywhere.

I like the wave that rolled off the coast the other day and the new one as well.

Posting this song.. beautiful song and very cool video. Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D34U2NwGzB0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUwQwY_C15Q

can't remember how to post the picture today... Thank God It's Friday/shabbos...
but for all my friends in Africa ;) thanks for the memories!





Good Shabbos, chicken, yellow rice.. y'all know the drill. Besos Bobbi

Not A Whole Lot Going On..

Not a whole lot going on to watch today

Except this:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/storms/gulf_wv_loop.gif

The gulf is dancing but I don't think it's dancing enough in one spot to get a name or an invest but you never know.

Will be back if and when something develops.

(rolling eyes and shaking my head)

Not Much Going On... watching ITCZ

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Will be watching that today.. more to see if there are any changes I can make out that might give those clusters of moisture down in the ITZ a chance to spin up into something.

Why are the winds so strong across the Caribbean basin.. I want a REAL answer to that from someone.

Not much to post now.. may post later.

Home today for Tish B'Av which is an important Jewish Day of Rememberance..

Will work on some writing and watch some loops and way too many tropical updates that say nothing in particular.

Heavy storms here in Miami, crackling thunder.. time to get off the computer.

Be well everyone, Bobbi

Crappy Invest, Cosme Finally Dies and African Wave Watching

Hey... since there is so little out there to watch I may as well pic the blob I care enough about so............... I'm gonna watch the African blob.. err umm wave.

Truth is that there is this deep, dark, high pressure that is oriented oddly in the Atlantic guarding the chances of development of our very favorite waves. So, if you have the money and you have the time fly south to Martinique or Barbados and enjoy the beautiful weather while you can. That high can't hang on forever.

As for the much talked about and overly discussed Cosme. I am so sick and tired of TWC covering that wave like it's the sign of the second coming or something.. like can we move on already. It was never anything big except some possible rain for Hawaii. Now we have Delilah to go all gaga about when it is "oh gee going nw out to sea" Look fast before it fizzles or keep watching TWC covering nowhere, no neck blobs going west bound to cooler water.

Invest... not a lot. Maybe some rain. Models developed it at the last minute. I believe the NHC has directions from Colonel, Vice Admiral Launtenbacher to follow all models. Something he said in government testimony.

As for me... having breakfast, hitting the road and dreaming of better times.

One thing I can say... at least the Redsox are winning. I was watching ESPN last night. Yeah, I do that sometimes and thought again what a stupid idea it was to give Miami a baseball team. No one in the stands for a home game.. no one. Okay a few lost, sunburnt kids and a few pelicans. Pathetic. Really. All the other games were packed on a Sunday afternoon in summer but not Miami. Well.. to be honest most of Miami's remaining Marlin fans were probably curled up in the AC somewhere reading Harry Potter. God Bless the Redsox. They can always make me smile when The Weather Channel doesn't.

Chow for Now, Bobbi

Kinky Water Vapor

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east.html

Really about the quirkiest, kinkiest Water Vapor I have seen in ages and will peak in and out today to see if and how anything in the Atlantic off the Florida coast could develop and possibly (according to some models) mess up the week for people in New England and the Upper Middle Atlantic not to mention Nova Scotia. Hope no one is filming anything important in Toronto these days or grab ToTo and run according to the Canadian models.... but a model is a model is a model and nothing more.

You need hot air, moist air, wet air.. some excitement, agitation and real convection for a system to develop. Some nice time away from Upper Level Lows and
strong shear. A beach front view at a nice condo, some wine, pretty sunset to really get it going and well tropical storms (ie hurricanes) need that as well.

You can't form a Category Three in a war zone and right now and last year the Atlantic and Carib was a war zone filled with little warrior and annoying Upper Level Lows.

So.............. tho............. you shouldn't let your guard down, and remember that the season doesn't really get going until August Get Ready and Remember September.

Two really excellent hurricane specialists who spend their time worrying on the tropics were quoted as such in the Sun-Sentinel this morning so I'll post the link to the article here and move along on my way today.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/orl-canes2107jul21,0,6948744.story

Read it and enjoy. They are two of the most kick ass, honest, filled with integrity and dedicated meteorologists out there today in the world.

Not sure where I'm going but will be somewhere.. and the song "Heaven Help Me" will be stuck in my mind where ever I am. Reshelved half the library Friday to Gretchen Wilson song's turned up real loud while everyone else was away on vacation between semesters. Well, sometimes you just got to do what you gotta do you know? Restless energy I guess but the shelves work better now ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yj2HRAEMC8w

good song, we all need help... especially me lol.

Especially in July Too Early for forecasters who begin to go a little bit crazy watching the water vapor loops :)

Maybe the SW Carib. Maybe something to look at or the wave in the islands but as for the possibly Maine Storm.. keep watching.

Besos Bobbi
Ps Red Sox won!

Chantal Forming? Wave Splits and CMC model still calls for development.

Chantal may or may not be forming out of a wave that is splitting in the Carib. One part going north and making some people believe the CMC model has been onto something and the other part heading west. The northern part of the wave is what to worry on. Then again, there is a lot of shear out there and though I can see on the water vapor loop how it might come together I still think it's a long shot.

Whisperings around the web is that the Navy may post a NRL invest for the NHC.. maybe, says their plan of day is to do so but that is subject to change I am sure.

Model loop causing the fuss is posted. Let it load. Go to the FWD button and watch it crank up and head for New England.

Seeing how it was 100 in Washington and in the 100s a few places or my kids think it was... there is a lot of heat for it to latch onto and head for if the upper level steering currents tugged at it just right. So... keep watching.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007072000&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Worth watching... especially if you live up the coast.

In the world of congressional storms ... seems there may be more hearings.

Proenza may have lost the battle and won the war or is it vice versa? Either way... the issue NEEDS to be addressed and I may not want him as a boss (or maybe I would) but I am very happy to have him on the watch and not afraid to speak his mind.

We need money. We need changes in how we do things in hurricane research and forecasting. We need to get better.

Once we give up and inure ourselves to what is vs demanding the best we get what we settle on in life. You want better forecasts.. takes money. We need improvements in intensity forecasting and that is where we have failed over and over to improve. If we can't get the intensity part right than people in the Florida Keys or on the outer banks stop listening to evacuation warnings. If we insist a storm is going to intensify into a CAT 3 or 4 and when the storm is a 1 and they wasted time and energy evacuating they won't evacuate the next time a storm hits the mark track perfect but comes in as a Major and not a Category 1. People lose faith in the NHC even when they get the basic track perfect if the intensity is off.

Intensity forecasting is the holy grail gang..
I know that, others know that.. but the public doesn't quite understand it yet. Perhaps Proenza will get the last word even if it is not as the Director of the NHC but as the Previous Director of the NHC because as much as they can erase him from the website they cannot erase him from the web or history.

What is is.. deal with, he got the word out and for that he is my hero of the day.. tropically speaking. I have another but I'll just keep mum on that one :) but he knows who he is..and he is wonderful.

Back to work.. going out for dinner tonight and making stay at home shabbos tomorrow. Got work to do gang so gonna listen to Gretchen sing from her fantastic new CD and watch the water vapor spin..

Love and kisses.. think tropical weather, Bobbi

* * *

GRETCHEN WILSON LYRICS

"The Girl I Am"

Sometimes I cry for no good reason
sometimes I fight when I ain't mad
Sometimes it hurts and I ain't bleeding
Sometimes I laugh when things go bad

[Chorus:]

But I'll always be the girl I am
When life comes falling down on me I do the best I can
I never make apologies cause I don't give a damn
I'll guess I'll always be the girl I am

Sometimes I know there's something missing
Sometimes I want to start again
Sometimes I scream and none listens
Sometimes I feel like giving in

[Repeat Chorus:]

But I'll always be the girl I am
And When life comes falling down on me I do the best I can
And I never make make apologies cause I don't give a damn
I guess I'll always be the girl I am

And I never make apologies cause I don't give a damn
Yeah I guess I'll always be the girl I am

Gretchen Wilson- One of the Boys LIVE!!!!!

enjoy, i agree too!

Is the QuikScat The Holy Grail of Weather People?

You can learn a lot about body language and facial expressions, not to mention hummm, hawww and looking unsure of what to say.

Lautenbacher seems to want to have it both ways.

He came down to Miami in response for Mary Glacken's inability to muffle Proenza concerning the QuikScat satellite. Mary as we know from previous posts was sent down to Miami to basically tell Bill to shut up. Shut up, sit up, do your work and stop complaining. We know this not because Bobbi says so but because it was said in the hearings that she complained to Bill that she couldn't do her job because people keep asking her about QuikScat.

Perhaps Mary and Avila can get a cheap rate on therapy together.

Perhaps Mary SHOULD have paid attention to people's concerns over the QuikScat and thought on the value of it.. but no she ran and kvetched to Lautenbacher who had to deal with the mess that Mary made. I know I am simplifying but if you heard the testimony today you might put it in harsher words..

No where during that part of the testimony did Mary complain that Avila was being harassed nor did she say anything about the guys at the NHC@FIU not wanting to share toys or resources or info with the people down at HRD on Virginia Key. Nope.. Mary was upset that Bill wouldn't listen and wouldn't shut up about the satellite that is on deaths door and luckily still working.

Lautenbacher did say in testimony that the satellite was not quite the Holy Grail to forecasters but close to it and that it was a very valuable tool. But, thats for later.

So... Mary is pissed off Bill isn't listening to her. So, she goes to Lautenbacher who realizes he HAS to do something.

Lautenbacher sends a committee down to the NHC at which point suddenly the guys at the NHC (group of ten I think it was really called) get together and sign a paper pleading to have Bill dismissed from his job and replaced.

NOTE: Prior to Mary being pissed off about the many questions she is receiving on QuikScat there was NO discussion about the unhappy employees.

There may have been unhappy employees. I am sure there were many as the gang at NHC out in the bunker doesn't want to share with the people who have the pretty view on the Rickenbacker (been to both many times and trust me.. much prettier view from HRD).

SUDDENLY: There is an issue brought to the surface about employees being unhappy with their new boss who wants to make changes ... such as working in concert with the HRD people who specialize in research.

Researchers + Forecasters = Better forecasts (or one would think)

I would say that Mary must have talked to someone at the NHC/FIU about something more than QuikScat because suddenly she goes back and it becomes a personnel problem not a matter of a whistle blower complaining about lack of funding and lack of foresight in replacing a satellite that is very needed and about to die a sad death in outer space.

So... Lautenbacher who by the way is worried about the Hurricane Center's ability to give a good track forecast vs Proenza who is concerned about making changes to improve INTENSITY AND TRACK has a group of people all go down to Miami and do a Pop Quiz with the only one told he was coming was NOT the Director.. odd but true and ... amazingly the good government employees ALL unanimously agree that Bill has to go.

You owe Lautenbacher one Mary.. hope you feel happy.

The sullen employees reluctantly sign a paper (not all we know that) saying they can't work for Proenza. Something that NEVER came up prior to Mary's trip to Florida and whatever late night conversations went on with Lautenbacher and his staff and employees at the NHC who were more than happy to do his dirty work for him.

Report says Proenza cannot continue at the NHC because of personnel problems and this has of course nothing to do with the QuikScat still sending incredible help to the forecasters currently using it.

Amazing... you can't have it both ways Lautenbacher ..

Either this is a personnel problem or it's a matter of trying to silence a whistle blower.

Which is it?

Unhappy personnel who did not go through the proper means of employee/employer mediation with a third party giving Proenza a chance to become more of a "people person" (who knew that was a government requirement for a job... I bet Mary isn't a people person but hey maybe I'm wrong.. Prozena questioned on if he was a people person... DID ANYONE EVER ASK IF BOB BURPEE WAS A PEOPLE PERSON????????????

Amazing hearings...

So explain to me why Proenza cannot go back to the NHC, finish out his year and they can have group therapy meetings in between issuing advisories for the next possible storm now possibly brewing in the Caribbean? Trust me one thing I know about the people at the NHC..they can issue advisories and multi-task, trust me on that one.

Why can't he go back and be supervised and given lessons on being a people person.

Why?

Because this wasn't a personnel matter it was a matter that he wouldn't shut up when Washington told him to and sent Mary to do Lautenbacher's job.

IS Lautenbacher a people person? Can we get all the people who served under him to testify. I want a list. Ten people. Three? Well?

This was a witch hunt and there is total negligence on the part of the government to not make sure there is adequate funding for satellites. Possibly they made a bad decision and Proenza was the wrong man for the job and someone else could have been given the job.

If you ask me.. Proenza should have been given Lautenbacher's job and we should beg Neil Frank to come back home to the NHC so he can work with the happy people there.

I have just one question that we would need to know tho...

Is Neil Frank a people person? It's a really important part of the job it seems.

At least we have Lautenbacher on record that the QuikScat is just about the HOLY GRAIL to many forecasters and although there is a European satellite it is Lautenbacher said NOT as good and without the European sat working our forecasts would not be as good. His words.

QuikScat = Almost The Holy Grail to forecasters. Now we know why everyone wants a replacement before 2017. Thank you Sir Lautenbacher.


love and kisses Bobbi
amazing day .. amazing ..
and oh... small chance this nice round area of disturbed weather could be Chantal, if you still care about real weather stories.

Hurricane Hearings Today

http://science.house.gov/publications/hearings_markups_details.aspx?NewsID=1920

All tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin has been cancelled today and probably tomorrow until the activity at the National Hurricane Center that resulted in an ouster of the Director has been totally investigated.

Like really.

Seriously.

We may find out what really happened. Or not.

You know was Proenza making his secretary add in 2 T of Soy Milk EXACTLY and one pack of splenda and 1 teaspoon of sugar and just it pushed her over the edge... Was he asking the IT guys to do strange tinkering with the many, many computers there. Did he have a real personality conflict or split personality? Different personalities? Oh..not him too. Seriously though...

I have a few questions personally.

Why didn't the government just give the job to someone from within the ranks of the NHC or HRD or some hurricane specialist somewhere and leave Bill at the NWS?

Why didn't they just give Bill Proenza the job at the NWS instead of rewarding some guy just out of the service with a great pension and lots of good contacts the job such as Lautenbacher?

Then Bill could have continued running the NWS the way he wanted and someone from within the holy ranks of the hurricane world could have had the job and

everyone would have been happier I suppose...........

Just curious.

I mean how hard is it to promote from within your own and not outsource jobs to friends with high connections.

Then again... didn't some really nice man from Oklahoma who trained horses or something get the head job at FEMA?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_D._Brown
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/bios/lautenbacher.htm

What do these two men have in common?
Private sector to public sector?
Friends in high places?
Bad decisions.....
What was the name of that attorney lady Bush knew who he wanted to make a Supreme Court Judge?

So, yeah I would like to understand why the government made a bad situation worse allowing forecasters and secretaries to have their boss fired at the NWS who had worked for the government with weather for close to 40 years and then he is made the butt of jokes about how he doesn't understand QuikScat and it's importance. I think Proezna understands it better than both Lautenbacher and Brown did Katrina.

Should be interesting.

Nothing else happening in the Atlantic basin today... or nothing I can write about here. Have to go pick out which heels I'm wearing with the red ruffled skirt today.

Later Gator.. Bobbi

Proenza Gets His Day .. Congressional Hearings On The Menu

http://www.miamiherald.com/884/story/172748.html

In a very well written story by Marion Mercer at the Miami Herald it seems that the big news in the world of Tropical Weather is the congressional committee hearings where Proenza will get a chance to testify and Lautenbacher may have to answer some tough questions.

And, my biggest question is exactly high how up was the decision made to fire Proenza from the job? I mean was that Lautenbacher or did it go all the way to the President? I mean.. usually when a government official is told to "SIT!" they are expected to sit and to sit damn fast. Yet, Proenza didn't and he kept barking and begging people to pay attention to deficits in budgeting for improvements in Hurricane Forecasting which only come with money given to research.

We should applaud anyone who wants to improve intensity forecasting and hurricane research.. not tell them to shut up and just come and have a nice photo op at a birthday party that costs millions. Most Government officials would have put on their Black Tie and gone on down.. made some toasts, take some pics for the old scrapbook and retire somewhere in the sun far away from storm surge. But no... Proenza spoke up PROACTIVELY as I said earlier for you and me .. for the PUBLIC. And, got shuffled off to Buffalo.

So.... seems Proenza will have his day in the sun tomorrow and I am sure down the road as this is not going away so fast.

Ah yes.. the world of Tropical Weather... and tropical weather people. As Dr. Gray used to say.. either you are a tropical weather person or you aren't.. (the exact quote is in my weather weenie file ;) lol) but I am... and personally we need more people like Proenza who are proactive and don't just try to figure out what went wrong AFTER some hurricane predicted to be a Cat 2 hits a pocket of hot water and explodes into a Cat 4 just a few miles off shore of the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area...


As for the gang down at the NHC ... buckle up it's gonna be a bumpy ride and we are in for some stormy weather in the press.

And, since Avila enjoys getting press coverage I will include his thoughts here and offer my suggestion that if he is so stressed from being party to an insurrection at the NHC than before the heavy weather sets in he might get a good discount with a shrink and speak to them and not the media for a while. Possibly that nice lady who was fired by the Caveman on TV. Maybe while filing her nails she could help our own Avila deal with the stress cause I think personally it's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better and he can go back to his Pre-Proenza easy life.
Either that or maybe he can hire a meteorologically minded Ghostbuster.... no words.



"I thought this thing was almost over, but it keeps haunting us,'' said Lixion Avila, a senior forecaster at the hurricane center."

I think there is a spot on the sofa.. as the cute caveman moved on.. and you won't even have to wear a button down white shirt for that appointment ;)

stay tuned.. developing........

Clear Sailin In The Caribbean

Boy do I wish I was on a sailboat somewhere down around Antiqua.

Great book to read, need to buy me a copy online or something cause that is one awesome book for weather lovers, travelers, sailin fanatics and anyone who likes to cook tropical cuisine. I've never sailed mind you, only in my mind from reading but I do have a whole lot of friends in Miami from the islands and I can peel a mangoe with the best of them and LOVE the weather parts :)

Nothing happening in the Atlantic. Trackers are beginning to go bananas and fight with each other over statistics and blobs and wave wannabees. Can't even get a REAL wave here.

Miami Dolphin Calendar Cards with the game dates are available at Wachovia these days. YAY..getting closer. Have to get that package out to my brother today before I am out of money from the old paycheck.

And... well... going to compile a list of candidates to email asking for more funds for the NHC and to high light the urgency of their needs and weather research in general as it relates to global warming.

But, for now.. have to finish my breakfast blend coffee that is okay but not great and figure out what I am wearing and get on the road again.

Happy Trails, Bobbi

Ps.. Joe told me in an email he is at accuweather, just there... always so anyone who wants be sure to write him, say hello and let him know he is appreciated. That boy has muscles.. he goes ballastic he can do real damage. We don't want no tropical forecasters going postal round here while waiting for something in the Atlantic to pop. Trust me.. every time the TWC comes on with the Tropical Update and starts talking about storms from long ago or goes straight to the Pacific some where a TV screen gets hit with a tomato, strawberry or well... hopefully nothing too hard or hard to clean up.

Waiting on hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Basin............

Letter Back From Senator Bill Nelson & Tropical Update

Okay, without further ado I will post here the letter that Senator Nelson wrote me concerning me writing him and the problems at the NHC (budgeting and Proenza)

As for the tropics.. not much happening. Shear everywhere for some reason or another. Warm and hot in Miami, rained earlier already. Keep watching.. keep waiting. Drink a hurricane, listen to some Jimmy Buffett.

great song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWtB9lsfh3w

Stuck somewhere between Jimmy Buffett today and Frank Sinatra.

Trying not to remember something and wishing people wouldn't morph into other people when I look at them.

Here for instance... who does this man remind you of??



ewwww help... maybe I need drugs? Or just a day at the Bama Breeze


So, anywhere here is Senator Nelson's response.

I think people should write him, give him their thoughts..write other politicians and candidates. Just because Proenza was given the shaft does not mean this is over. It's not over ... money is needed for hurricane research, weather research and to protect American Citizens living in a good 1/4 of the Country from Texas to Maine who live in areas affected by landfalling hurricanes and let us not forget Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands!

besos.. Bobbi

Dear Ms. Schwartz:

Thank you for contacting me regarding hurricane preparedness. Florida is better prepared than many States, but we must be vigilant in learning more about these storms and preparing our response should disaster strike.

Hurricanes are our nation’s most expensive natural disasters, and we are not doing enough to study these complex systems. Senator Martinez and I recently reintroduced the National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI) Act (S. 931) that would initiate a multi-agency effort to improve research in hurricane prediction. The NHRI would increase funding for hurricane observation, GPS technology, and unmanned aerial vehicles, and would coordinate research between the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is a branch of NOAA and the primary source of weather data, forecasts, and warnings to the United States. Although there have been recent controversies within the NWS National Hurricane Center, we are working to ensure that forecasting systems are prepared for this year’s hurricane season. I will continue to work for adequate funding and equipment for hurricane forecasting, while ensuring necessary oversight so that these funds are used efficiently. I have sponsored legislation to fund the development and launch of a next-generation hurricane tracking satellite to replace the aging QuikSCAT satellite, which was launched in 1999 and designed to last just three years.

I also will continue to work for increased funding for the Florida National Guard so it can replace equipment that could be necessary in the event of a storm emergency. I am a cosponsor of the National Guard Empowerment Act, which would help coordinate the Guard with other Federal and State agencies, such as FEMA, to enhance planning and execution of emergency response.

I appreciate your taking the time to be involved in an issue that is so important to Florida. Please know that I will keep your views in mind. Do not hesitate to contact me in the future.

More Model Madness

Okay.. so now nothing shows up on the models except a possible closed circulation (small) off of Africa far out in the future.

One thing worth looking at though is....the way the high has dug in .. massive, massive high. Check it out there:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007071606&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

All the models pretty much show it and... well a nice little spin down near Cuba but think it's upper level and not really worth watching but hard not to watch something that is actually spinning right now in the Atlantic at any level.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-wv.html

Poor Canadian, seems to want a Cane really badly.

Stay tuned.....

Canadian Model Calls for FL/Texas Landfall? And, Storm Fury Trivia

Is the Canadian crazy or does it know something we should pay attention to?

A real closed circulation sliding through the Florida Straits and slamming into Texas or does it need to be sent back to the factory to be hit up the side of the head or whatever they do to wayward models?

Either way.. cut and paste this cute little link and watch a storm blow up on the north side of Cuba and dance across South Beach or slither it's way through the Florida Keys and then slam into Texas... interesting, fiction or fact?
Time will tell.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007071500&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

I'm a little skeptical.. but well... keep watching.

So...decided to post a link here to something that you can all read up on and wonder about... a project called STORM FURY where we tried to make a difference in the world and control hurricanes or modify them so that they might not turn into major category five storms and just stay at lower levels.

HaHa.. you thought it was about me having a temper tantrum didn't you? Come on, confess... not about a pissed off Bobbi Storm.. nope, about trying to control or modify weather to help mankind.

So... going to use Wiki as a source because it seems there are a lot of people with a lot of time who do nothing at all but write columns on Wiki and they are chock full of information. Accurate info to because you see somewhere someone is checking on them always and anything bad gets taken out a whole lot faster than a mistake in World Book!

People think Google will take over the world.. I would fear Wiki! :)


So...
From Wiki online where you can go to learn much about everything and a lot about nothing!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane


A paragraph from a larger article "Artificial dissipation" is cited below:

"In the 1960s and 1970s, the United States government attempted to weaken hurricanes through Project Stormfury by seeding selected storms with silver iodide. It was thought that the seeding would cause supercooled water in the outer rainbands to freeze, causing the inner eyewall to collapse and thus reducing the winds. The winds of Hurricane Debbie—a hurricane seeded in Project Stormfury—dropped as much as 30%, but Debby regained its strength after each of two seeding forays. In an earlier episode in 1947, disaster struck when a hurricane east of Jacksonville, Florida promptly changed its course after being seeded, and smashed into Savannah, Georgia.[46] Because there was so much uncertainty about the behavior of these storms, the federal government would not approve seeding operations unless the hurricane had a less than 10% chance of making landfall within 48 hours, greatly reducing the number of possible test storms. The project was dropped after it was discovered that eyewall replacement cycles occur naturally in strong hurricanes, casting doubt on the result of the earlier attempts. Today, it is known that silver iodide seeding is not likely to have an effect because the amount of supercooled water in the rainbands of a tropical cyclone is too low.[47]"

Personally I have to give these folks a real "A" for EFFORT here. They tried, what have we done in the last few decades to try? Yes, there were some problems. No, it didn't have any real long lasting effect. Yes, there were some problems that some attribute to the seeding and others attribute to weather conditions... not sure we will ever know for sure as the program was disbanded. But, an amazing group of people participated and tried to make a difference. I give them a real A for effort and thought I would highlight this project that was known not for storm trackers fighting with each other and being angry at the world but trying to take apart the fury from a storm and in even some minor way control it.

Weather modification is being used in many places.

Do we? Would we know if we were? Do we care or bother?

Seems to me in a time when many worry on global warming and globalism and our future destiny on this planet that the power that learns to control or modify weather will control much power indeed.

The real Lex Luthor (Metropolis not Miami) knew that ....




China knows that...it's worrying on the Olympics... (right, sure it is)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13107271/site/newsweek/
(Can China Control Olympic Weather? Newsweek)

When will we?

Right now we aren't sure if the Canadian is or isn't right but if it keeps projecting this and some other model hits on it as well... we will be that much more a believer in this South Florida storm.

Have a great week, a great Monday... a great, great, great everything.

Over and out, Bobbi Storm
Ps... I have of course always been a little partial to the Canadian Model :P
smiling... sigh...

Totally Tropical Today.. Tropical Wave Moves West

Nice wave midway across, hanging in there better than most people thought it would but still has a lot of shear and dry air to fight off.

The shear is harassing the hell out of the waves and even though they say it is a neutral year the feel of it still says "el nino" even though the sat images of water temps shows neutral.

Noaa finally made the news official that La Nina is not coming to a tropical theatre near you anytime this summer.

I knew that.... we all knew that but now it is official casue NOAA says.

I have some nice pics of my son from his tour of the NWS down there this week. Might post them if I have time again in this century. So much catching up to do.

So... not talking on other things that are bugging me cause I am staying tropical and said I wouldn't so I am not.

I received this pic in an email from WXAMERICA and it's a great pic.
Says a lot... nice little wave westbound and down and trucking..
another pretty wave over Africa about to enter the ocean.

Nothing happening in our basin as we move further into the month of July... running out of time for things to develop for this season to meet all expected goals.

Should be interesting to see what Dr. Bill says in August update.. or Phil, whatever :) Whoever... they are both brillant and always fun to read and much to learn from by reading Dr. Gray's reports.

Almost Home, No Tropical Development on the Horizon

Unless it's a surprise tropical disturbance.

This is me at the very nice home of the NWS in Key West.
Really wonderful guys there who made my son's trip.
You see the balloon goes up at 7 and 7 and it was hot and there was no air moving and trust me that balloon went up like a rocket.. straight up. Almost a dead calm.
And, only 94 degrees....

So... Key West was wonderful, like always and well... it was wonderful.

Too tired to even think but wanted to check in and check out.

I'll be back online Saturday night... Sunday morning.

Anyway, on my way home for Shabbos.

Sort of instant shabbos, chicken and potatoes...
salads, etc. Lots of Cherries. My daughter-in-law emailed me a shopping list and took out chicken and can't wait to see everyone.

But, me and Zalmy had a beautiful time.

Took a swim last night under the stars, stared up through palm fronds at the stars by the pool by the ocean and wow... heaven on earth.

Good Shabbos, Happy Weekend, Happy Trails

Bobbi

Except for Man-yi there isn't much to write home about. Chris found me out where the name comes from but we are still a little vague on the sex. Whatever, whichever, it is a pretty, big storm to watch spin.


Nothing in the Atlantic Tropical Basin to speak of..except some washed out waves and showers. High pressure reigning across South Florida. HOT! HOT! HOT!Way too hot!

Finished work on an article for publication, needs some rewrite down the road but for now I am done with it. Editor has it and seems happy or at least amused. Rivky and Mendy are at the Midnight show of Harry Potter with their NSCY friends. Deborah is stuck in NY and will be back tomorrow, their dog Carmella is looking sad and lonely. The big storm at the NHC is over. Taking my son Zalmy and hitting the road, going to the end of the road. Working on a new article and my ongoing novel and Zalmy is getting some rest and relaxation... it's a hard life being a 12 year old but we try and make his little world rock and since he loves going to The Rock.. taking him there as I promised!

Everyone be good... no bickering over politics, lightning, solar spots, politics, stuff...

See you when I get back from Margaritaville unless some sudden storm forms somewhere.

Bobbi
Ps... will say a prayer with him at the Grotto!

Man-Yi in the Far Pacific

So... as the tropics go this morning... there isn't much going on, not in our hemisphere but over in the Pacific.. oh wow, a real live Typhoon named Man-Yi.

Now.. not sure if Man-Yi is man, woman or she-man but it's HUGE.
Maybe a Shaman? Maybe it will remind waves how they are supposed to spin in our part of the world?

I would suggest you don't put Man-yi into a google search...

Here tho is a link to an interesting blog and a great loop.
Have fun...

http://thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.com/

loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_gp_vis_ls_0.html

Either way.... not much is going on on our side of the world.

There is a wave, real low, about to either crash into South America or lift just enough for us to keep watching it. The islands of Martinique, Barbados and Trinidad all bear watching in the next few weeks or months for a possible hit from Cape Verde Storms.. if we ever get any. Seriously, there will a season Virginia.. really.

As for me............ I just wanted to say... thank you "crazy stalker person" for the incredible music, gonna listen to it all day and possibly all night. Beautiful, inspirational, from picture frame to cover art on CD... a true blend of almost perfection. Your ability to say it with music surpasses anything I have ever seen.

And.... between waking Mendy (6:55) and waking Rivky (7:30) and waking Levi (7:45) I have a few moments here to sip my coffee Deborah made deliciously fresh this morning as my daughter-in-law has to fly to New York this morning to meet with fabric people from Milan... I have just enough time to write my thoughts and check the tropical loops and check in with my tropical friends. What a life... Wish she'd stop smoking.

Thoughts on being a muse. Anyone looking for tropical thoughts... come back tomorrow!

Really it rates sometimes. Amazing the high you get from finding the perfect thought, phrase or ending. You know like... ever paint? You put a color on the canvas and think "wow, that is such a great color" and then ... someone comes along and puts another color next to it nearby and you think "wow, they go so great together" and then................ you get this feeling and you find this one perfect color, perfect shade, perfect hue to use and you paint another line next to it and WOW oh WOW ...oh WOW how they look together! Words, words and phrases... come backs that are sassy, sweet, alluring or playful... each sentence creates the next sentence in a symbiotic flow of thoughts that are like incredible scenery passing out a picture window as you drive cross country on a road trip. Giggling, really giggling. Funny how some people can steal your mind until your mind mirrors their mind and you lose yourself in where the original image begins and where the last ends but somewhere in the images is creativity at it's finest. It's a great high. Almost better than sex. Almost ;)

So... think Deborah will catch the plane... I mean come on.. it's a corporate jet.. trust me they will wait for her. I'm gonna go wake Rivky.

And, then gonna figure out where I am staying tomorrow in paradise and what to take with me.

I did Transformers yesterday with my youngest son Zalmy. It was one of those Mommy and Son days. Great movie. Really cute. Made me realize again how much work goes into actually getting someone's screenplay onto the silver screen. Transformers dancing on top of the Griffith Park Observatory lol and well.. the guy gets the girl and the car gets to watch! Amazing, get to see Sam save the world in a yellow beemobile? I should never go to the movies. Really.. best to just watch very old, old movies. Black and White ones. You know like the Bringing Up Baby... or Tea For Two... with old soundtracks and no songs from anytime after Sammy Kaye and the Chordettes or Bugel Boys times, no 1960s, no Carpenters and no no no 80s :)

For now.. over and out... Bobbi's checking out. Off to work. Gonna listen to your music for the rest of the day.

Bobbi

Ps... re: NOAANWSTPCNHC matter...

I heard no one could get QuikScat data this morning on the atlantic wave? is that true? goes in and out sometimes... someone hit the back up generator please we want to see what's going on out there..

Also, cute story below.. out of date but shows some people were able to maintain a sense of humor despite mutiny at the NHC! lol.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/local_news/epaper/2007/07/06/s1b_bino_0706.html

What Mayfield should have been pointing to was the budget but a lot of words, imagine Bush wanted to see pictures. And, imagine Mayfield tried... he just tried quietly, kept his job, retired and now we can watch him on ABC on Channel 10 in Miami making bigger bucks and hopefully saying what is on his mind.

Proenza Out, Rappaport IN, Budget Issues Still Need to Be Addressed!

I was quiet all day. I waited and thought on what I wanted to say and if I wanted to say something here..

Media banned from NHC area? Proenza not at work. And, special investigators suddenly missing-in-action?

Well if all those things were true (and seems they were) than the sum total of this mathematical problem was obviously...

Proenza was getting shafted or shuffled off to Buffalo.

Smells of a coup d'etat at the NHC that was directed from above but achieved by use of the men below at the facility. When Franklin said he didn't really want to be the leader of the gang being interviewed he may have been telling the truth there...

Good definition of a coup is :As Edward Luttwak remarks in his Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook: "A coup consists of the infiltration of a small but critical segment of the state apparatus, which is then used to displace the government from its control of the remainder." In this sense, use of military or other organized force is not the defining feature of a coup d'État

My International Relations Degree says that this was a coup indeed.. but from below or from above?

And, meanwhile the dog that won't stop barking is the pitiful budget the NHC has to protect the lives of the citizens of this country who live in hurricane prone areas. Failing, falling satellites, not enough money for more recon flights, planes that need to be maintained, low salaries for some of our finest weathermen, so ... you can change directors and you can put Proenza on leave and you can give Rappaport the job as he definitely is up to the job and deserving of it..

But the dog that won't stop barking here in an election year is........ the needs of the National Hurricane Center and other environmental agencies that need money and yet money is thrown into the war in Iraq and other programs this administration finds more important than hurricane research, climate research and global warming research.

When we begin to fail in our pursuit in knowledge we begin to fail as a nation.

There is only so much money to go around.. and I really hope that the people in office and those who are running for office remember this and lobby harder and speak up louder for increased funds for those good, overworked, tired meteorologists on duty protecting us during the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

A very good article on the whole Proenza situation and a good statement by Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-Lao below...

http://blog.nola.com/times-picayune/2007/07/hurricane_center_director_repl.html

highlighted below is an important statement and shows the concern that he raised that goes beyone press conferences held in the parking lot at the NOAATPCNHC@FIU.


"But Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., suggested the agency was punishing Proenza for highlighting NOAA's failure to address public safety concerns.

"NOAA is embarrassingly far behind in ensuring that QuikScat remains part of that arsenal, and Director Proenza was right to expose their failures to public scrutiny as higher-ups looked the other way," Landrieu said in a statement. "There is no excuse for putting bureaucratic office politics ahead of the safety of the American people."

On Vacation..

not sure where... when i get there i will know

taking my youngest and going away for a day or two

miami south is beautiful anywhere... here or there

heck can take a hotel room a block from work and be there in the morning even! lol

but probably go further south... somewhere

have a good weekend... oh

and according to the NWSTPCNHC@FIU

"tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours"


so happy tropical trails!

Bobbi

The Mean Season Begins... Investigation Ongoing at NHC

I just want to say here... I know a lot of people who are really sad and sort of depressed about what is going on at the NHC.

The NHC is an incredible place filled with very brilliant, wonderful people who do an amazing job forecasting under often difficult circumstances.

You want an example? Would you like to try forecasting 3 or 4 sets of advisories for 3 or 4 different storms affecting different parts of the Atlantic Basin during years like 1995, 1996 or 2004 and 2005? I don't think so. Lotta luck..takes real skill and patience in evaluating data from many sources and then various models calling for different tracks and... well they have done an incredible job.

Budgetary concerns have been a problem there for a long time, way before Bill came along and realized how bad it is. Money for more recon flights, keeping the number of flights, maintaining many satellites not just QuikScat but a whole system of satellites that are aging fast.

And, you have a lot of personalities, trust me.

And.........for years, decades all any young child who liked hurricanes or a tropical meteorological sort of person has ever wanted to do was aspire to one day work at the NHC and the more ambitious ones dream of being Director of the NHC.

It's a sad day when the whole agency begins to be looked upon as a big bunch of cry babies who don't like a new tough boss who wants to make changes and who was promoted from the outside and not from within. That is how many will always view this.

Proenza might be a bad guy to some, a hero to others but he will go down as someone who simply wanted to make changes and who was worried about the budget. He may go down as not a nice boss but most bosses are not most employees favorite co-workers.

Franklin (whether he wanted this fame or had it thrust upon him) and Kvetchy, Quirky Avila will go down as malcontents and the people signing the paper will be remembered as government employees who didn't want to go through proper means to complain about their superior or who wanted to take sides with Franklin/Pasch, etc. Work can be a drudge and having a new boss can be a pain and having to listen to someone you don't care for can be a real pain.. that is the bottom line. Rarely do workers get to pick their boss or vote on keeping him or her.

And, I doubt that these investigators are going to go away before they finish their investigations and then they have to write up a report and then they have to make a recommendation... which should bring us directly into the heart of the hurricane season. Even if Proenza decided after 40 years of service to suddenly retire for personal reasons to "spend more time with his family" the investigation will go on and I think it will be a long time before things are "normal" again and just wondering how much they are investigating... hoping they aren't sifting through emails, text messages and lord knows what..and just gathering opinions... thoughts.

So... I'm sad. I'm sad that some kid somewhere who loves hurricanes and always wanted to work at the NHC will suddenly rethink those dreams and wonder whether they should go work at TWC or ... just keep it as a hobby or... think less of the forecasters who really are amazing people going through a somewhat crummy time to put it nicely.

I'm sad that a man who wanted to address things that NEED to be addressed is in trouble from his superiors. And, I can't imagine those same superiors will really think well of lower level employees who make demands publicly and go up against their own boss. Things like that are not usually appreciated by government higher ups.

So... as much as y'all seem to think that the goings on at the NHC is making a great reality TV show in the absence of American Idol or Monday Night Football... know that if some wave explodes in 3 or 4 days and conditions change in the Atlantic Basin these guys will snap into place and settle down and put together one hell of a advisory. That much I know... because it is their job and they do it well, even if some of them are very unhappy campers with a head counselor they don't like very much.

Oddly the reason I made this blog several years ago was because of a group of my favorite hurricane friends who were tearing each other apart a few weeks before the season exploded.. they always do.. but this year... it was mostly the ones at the NHC and not just online people and playful make believe names on message boards, text messages and emails. It's that quiet time before the Mean Season gets going. The pressure builds ups just before things pop... hope those investigators get out of town before they have to hunker down and experience a real Tropical Storm!

Hey, I told someone recently that the heat, humidity and these daily severe thunderstorms in Miami are driving us all crazy.. now maybe they will belive me.

I'm posting this here below from HurricaneCity and it's Jim Williams thoughts on the matter. Jim writes very well, short and to the point (unlike me) and he says what many of us are thinking. He says it very well and I thought it was worth posting, so am doing so here because it's my blog and I can.

from www.hurricanecity.com

UPDATE BY:Jim Williams...The controversy continues down at the National Hurricane Center after new director Bill Proenza stated to the media that less accurate forecast's will result if the quikscat satellite fails. Several senior forecasters have said publicly the Bill Proenza should resign because his remarks are causing the public perception that forecasters cannot do their jobs properly. I find these comments by forecasters unacceptable, furthermore I heard Bill Proenza on a morning radio show here in south Florida state "some forecasters were having private meetings behind his back". If this is true,the forecaster responsible for this needs to be removed from his position immediately. If Bill Proenza keeps his job as director,you cannot have this kind of thing going on behind the scenes. If he looses his job over speaking out,the next director may have to deal with the same issues. I do not claim to know what is going on behind the scenes at NHC, but no matter how bad the relations are, Bill Proenza is the boss and sometimes new bosses like to shake old bad habits by employees over many years. I think NOAA should give Bill Proenza at least one year as director as see how things go & not relieve the man with the height of hurricane season around the corner. He is screaming for help at NHC,those that can help should be listening!.

Some Things About Bobbi You May Not Know...

Since it's a quiet day in the tropics and I am in a mood I figured I might list a few

1st things 1st though..
there is a low of some sort in the Atlantic off the Florida coast that probably could or would turn into a subtropical and go quietly out to sea except no one wants to talk about it because there are other bigger issues in the world such as whether the goon squad that has parked itself down at my old Alma Mater will or won't make the heat so hot at the NHC that everyone will BEG Bill to go back to work at the NWS where it seems what you say is not paid much attention to by the Press even if you are Mary Glackin who is the Acting Head or something..

Lesson # 1 Bill
NWS = invisible
NHC = highly visible and press always looking for sound bites

Lesson # 2
Never promote from outside a department and expect the locals to be happy. To Quote one of my favorite country singers "there goes the neighborhood"

Lesson # 3
No one likes a group of five or six people from your bosses in Washington parked for two or three weeks conducting an investigation of your department looking at everything from paper clips to time cards to comments made in the bathroom or written online. Working for the government isn't all it's cracked up to be. And, many who have.. have left for their own reasons. That's why guys like Jeff Masters and Steve Lyons no longer work in the public sector but have found happiness and respect in the private sector. Add in their Joe Bastardi... So, imagine if you had your far away distant bosses camped out in your cubbyhole you would wish Bill would go back to the NWS too!

Lesson #4
To quote another song she sings .. NOAA would "Rather Have a Good Ole Boy!"

So..................
as for weather round up..

There is an area of low pressure somewhere in the Bermuda Triangle that isn't getting much attention because the NHC is the big news these days.. not the storms....

Oh.......and the wave out in the Atlantic Ocean that was being monitored was downgraded to a regular wave and not one with a closed circulation. That decision BTW was made by none other than QUICKSCAT ...the satellite that is responsible for providing data to distant waves out east of 50w and ... well.... guessing if that was a Cat 3 and not a weak wave you'd be happy QuickScat was on the job ...


Anyways... so that's the weather round up.

Did hear that MJO is moving into the Atlantic Basin soon and things might heat up.. then again i believe in the MJO, do you?

I do. Hey, I even sort of miss Joe these days lol.


So.......

somethings you might not know about Bobbi if you are still reading this and yes that is a pic of me up on the top of this blog in a somewhat pensive mood.

1) I won awards at FIU for my academic studies in International Relations. National awards. Money $$$ not grants for school or to be used for books in the gift shop. I think I bought some cute heels and a nice jean skirt and saved part for trips to NY. Maybe ;) But, I did win big awards and got As and was on the honors list etc..

Studied tons of INR classes, Geography of EVERYWHERE, Demography of a lot of places. Took meteorology classes that I also got As in as well as Oceanography and Geology and also got As... I didn't do Chemistry or Biology, sort of an earth science girl you know? And, it relates to International Relations because well... you have to know a country's resources, economically specifically and weather is real important. If you don't think so... then Russia spent too much time way back when trying to find a warm water port.. Not to mention the whole Peruvian fishing boats that get argued over in the International Courts of Law. I took International Law too. And, I have a second degree in English. Two degrees in less than four years of college, go figure.

So you see... Bobbi really could have been Condi Rice but

2) I joined Lubavitch to see the world and make a difference. It's sort of like a Jewish Peace Corp. I was married to a Rabbi and had the title of Rebbetzen and a Chabad House and well... Long Beach was nice, Santa Monica was wonderful.. L.A. not as nice as Long Beach... ended up back home in F L O R I D A. I missed the South. My daddy missed me and convinced my ex-husband to move back to Miami where we continued working for Lubavitch. I helped a lot of people. I can't say that it was a bad decision. Nothing I am not proud of with regard to my work for Chabad. A lot I don't agree with and bugged me and others, working for any organization isn't easy but I am proud of it. Would rather personally currently have Condi's job but well we all make decisions and we have to live with them. And, I got to meet James Caan and the Spock guy and a lot of people Chabad is close to on the West Coast. Giggling... hey James Caan is cute at any age. A sweet man.

Oh...and I had a whole bunch of kids ..some named Mendy, Levi, Zalmy... well if you know Chabad you know the drill.

But then...............

3) I got divorced. And, I left Chabad and a lot of things changed and took a break and eventually took back a lot of things and now I am currently very close with Chabad again. I even have kids who live in Crown Heights and Postville, how lubavitch is that? Postville is beautiful, I love it there! I do have a picture of the Rebbe! I have quite a few pictures of the Rebbe lol..and I do Ha Yom Yom every day! but as it says in my divorce papers
"something changed"

speaking of something.....

4) I no longer speak to screen writers who don't get the scene correct it was about food on a stick not food in cones, on a stick and things you can hold in your hand... and it was supposed to be a private conversation and someone under an assumed personality said they wouldn't use it and I don't think changing it from a stick to a cone is well... we no longer speak so it doesn't matter. Corn Dogs. I love corn dogs. I love tacos and burritos. Onion Rings and other things and egg rolls and well I have pretty much given up food in a stick or that you eat in your hand. It is usually fattening... ever notice how you don't eat brown rice out of your hand? In a bowl. Yep. Then again you can eat Tofu in your hand can't you? Hmmmnnn well...oh and sushi. Oh I aint givin up sushi so yes I still do eat food I hold in my hand. I stand corrected. :) I am in a mood today but then I warned someone. But, I have given up screen writers for breakfast and given up directors for lunch and producers for dinner. Given up waiting to wear the shiny necklace to the Oscars cause well.. I'm not planning on attending next year... though dinner in Laguna again would be nice. I'm looking for a diet of NORMAL these days. Hardworking normal. A honest, good, hardworking normal good ole boy who knows how to come home at the end of a day and make some noise... have dinner, watch the sunset, watch the stars come out and think on where to take the kids or ourselves for a nice vacation. N O R M A L. And, I really hope and pray I find it!

but...

5) I am not getting back together with ED. So, you remember you heard it from me first... on the books, on the record... accept it, deal with it.. was a long, long time ago .... move on.
We weren't Romeo and Juliet ..it was just a prom.

Ed here
Bobbi there

Never the twains shall meet. And, Marc stay out of this one please!

so that brings me to

6) I work very hard as a librarian and I love it. It doesn't pay well but well fits in with my life and maybe someday I will finish that novel which will not be made into a movie. And, I get to be surrounded by books! And, nice people. And....I do writing freelance and I get paid for it..sometimes. And, I love to write, I love the way words play with each other, flirting, playful, serious... compelling people to think.

7) I am sorry for insulting someone here on the blog once (RR) and I truly do hope you forgive me... really. Though it may have been good writing and I was very upset ..it was wrong. I think you have way surpassed Big Daddy and you are truly a caring, important person. And... I do mean that.

8) 8 is my favorite number. I used to love to talk about numbers with Rebbetzen Doubtfire but we no longer talk. But, I do love numbers and I will never forget long walks and talks on the beach (sorry about the trash on the ground) and watching that plane swoop down so low I thought America was under attack but it was just a jetfighter on the way to a game at the stadium lol. And, thanks for the memories... Good to have good girl friends to talk to sometimes when you need to take a break from reality. Remember to take your medicine darling! I so worry on you sometimes..

9) There will be nine hurricanes in the tropical atlantic this year? lol. I want to be on Cloud 9 again...

Seriously... the truth is in ways we all have 9 lives..

We evolve as people.. we change, we go through heartache, we go through pain... we ache and we bleed and we think we can never get past something but we do... we have to, because well... life is about survival and it's about being happy and finding joy in impossibly hard situations sometimes. It is about the beauty of a rose unfolding, the rain coming down, the moon coming out... you know that, standing out in the middle of the street staring up at a full moon (i was there you didn't see me) and well... it's about weather and love and magic and karma and it's about sometimes you hit a home run and sometimes you strike out. Sometimes even the heart and soul of the team like Johnnny Damon moves on but you still have to go on... with him or with out him, life moves on.

So... this is me.

This is Bobbi!




I love country music, old rock and roll, jazz and swing and big band music... even songs like Mr. Sandman and Fly Me To The Moon.

I love purple and green and shades in between and I have even somehow learned to appreciate yellow.

I love Key West.

I love history and maps and geography and weather.. and yeah even rocks but don't quote me on that.

I write. I read. I love words. I love music.

Looking for someone NORMAL to love and to help brighten their life as I hope they will brighten mine. Life is way too short to live it alone so yeah... I am looking for love and maybe in the wrong places but well... maybe I'll move, who knows.

So... there is it... play it again Sam... and have a wonderful weekend ... be happy and I'll check back when there is something to write about tropically speaking.

Thanks for listening.
Good Shabbos!

Bobbi
Ps.. I gave up mousse but I still love the Redsox, not giving them up EVER!

The Morning After - 4th of July

I'm thinking there are a whole bunch of people trying to wake up this morning and go to work who are thinking "4th of July on a Wednesday, boy was that a bad idea!!!!" But, hey... we celebrate the birthday wherever it falls out even if we don't get a 3 day weekend out of it.

So first...tropical round up?
Not much going on this morning.
A small discernible low pressure area makes its way slowly across the Atlantic despite very dry air and negative conditions inhibiting it from forming into anything with a name or a number. Suppose as long as it stays together ..even in it's current state.. it can do something if it gets into a favorable area. A good friend of mine who knows hurricanes told me.. it spins beautifully. Just needs to convect a bit. Maybe a few corona extras, some nice romantic music and someone to inspire her and she could spin up into Chantal but for now..she's flying below the radar. Real low.

Around the country.. in other news WEATHER was the big story of the day yesterday. Floods in Kansas and O K L A H O M A and very high temps in Vegas and the SW (over 120 degrees!!) and weather so bad in the Nation's Capital that the outdoor events had to be evacuated due to Tornado Warnings. We now know how long it takes to evacuate the Mall when someone screams TORNADO.. could be useful down the road I suppose... But, weather was wild. I should find the picture I took at my house around 3pm.. looked like Armageddon. Telling you in my neck of the woods that was some meteorological firework display going on up in those clouds.

See the pic that I took standing on my front porch facing east as that cloud bank rolled across the city from west to east.




And then................. we partied.

Deborah set up the back yard with tiki torches and tables decorated for the 4th of July. She made cole slaw, potato salad, pasta salad, baked beans and corn on the cob with hot dogs and hamburgers on the BBQ grill. Was delicious, great, perfect, beautiful and oh we had a lot of beer, cold beer. Luckily that bad tstorm a few hours earlier lowered our temps about ten degrees so we could sit out there with the tiki torches and the palm trees. Miami.. July 4th!

Beginning to set up the backyard :) with the tiki torches :)



And...then my kids who know Neptune Fireworks well as they used to get summer jobs there... brought out the big guns they had been saving up their money for.. Mind you when I say "kids" I mean 20somethings not little itsy bitsy kids. Legal to buy rockets, legal to drink (finally) and even legal to ship shells to Iraq but that's another story ......anyways...

Wow, incredible and those boys are so patriotic I cannot tell you how much they love America. I mean it. Ever see 25 year old guys, singing the National Anthem while watching their rockets bursting in mid air? Was cute, was great... was wonderful.

sample video from neptune.. similar, not the same but enjoy
light the fuse ;)
http://images.tntfireworks.com/tnt/movies/490558.html

Personally.. would like my own Mr. Wonderful to share it with next year but it is nice to have such good memories of my kids and their friends having fun. And.. I did too!

So... keep watching the tropics... keep watching the news and keep listening to great music.

All day, all morning I have had this song stuck in my mind.. and thanks to You Tube.. I can watch and listen while at work this morning.

Fly Me To The Moon... da da da de dum.. jupiter and mars..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rAsoLm1Ges
frankie boy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVCgf6_M7i4&mode=related&search=
diana krall

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aalh7fujkdw
vegas...



Fly Me to the Moon

Fly me to the moon
And let me play among the stars
Let me see what spring is like
On Jupiter and Mars
In other words hold my hand
In other words darling kiss me
Fill my life with song
And let me sing forevermore
You are all I hope for
All I worship and adore
In other words please be true
In other words I love you

repeat 2nd verse, then repeat 1st verse

Happy July 4th & comments on waves and controversy

First of all.. Happy July 4th!

Happy 4th of July!

Happy Independence Day!

Seriously... hope you all have a wonderful day spent with those you love the most.
I'm here with a few friends and my kids (grown kids) making a big BBQ and party in the backyard. Well..weather permitting or we bbq inside and shoot off all their fireworks between rainstorms. So far no rain but the forecast has it raining by now. Hoping it's a busted forecast. Maybe the rain in the bahamas some are watching as a possible system pulled in some of our rain? We can only hope..

Went to breakfast with two of my sons.. eggs, grits, whole wheat toast and strawberry jam!! so good.


As for the storm of controversy at the NHC or about the NHC.. let me say this..

I think that NOAA handled the whole thing badly, from start to finish.

First off.. bringing in someone from the outside ..from their NWS was not a popular decision among the old guard at the NHC who thought maybe Franklin or Rappaport or someone else might get the job. Mayfield was brought up from the ranks. I was surprised, not happy either but have come to respect Proenza a lot and would like to see him do this season and everyone can re-evaluate later whether they are happy with subtle changes he made and whether he is or isn't allowed to speak his mind freely and openly.

I think NOAA underestimated the public's reaction and overestimates their importance in matters. And.... this being a political year when many candidates..especially democratic ones are looking for big issues to talk on I would think that this might be an unpopular hot potato.

Doesn't take a brain surgeon to know that if this sat was doing secret military surveillance in IRAQ that it would be properly funded and have a replacement ready to go.

When the needs of the people, the general public take a backseat to the needs of the military establishment during a time when many do not happily support the continued war in Iraq MAY comeback to bite them badly.

After two killer seasons of 2004 and 2005 and lots of promises of money to be given for hurricane research and other environmental problems they have all been back burnered and forgotten about.

It really is a crime on some level that the needs of the people of New Orleans were not properly addressed when every geology and meteorology and history student around KNEW from government studies that thousands would be killed. This was high priority and yet.... no one did anything. We found money to invade a few countries, put together a massive Homeland Security agency and yet... we have not done much when it comes to the needs of people living in hurricane coastal regions.. except after the fact have government discussion of what went wrong, more committees, more senate hearings that cost money... etc.

So.... maybe they should have just let the sore heal a little as they say. Not come in with the big boys doing inspections and interviewing every forecaster who has issues with the original decision of his appointment... maybe they just should have let it rest. Before some candidate or other politician uses the lack of funds for the NHC and other agencies in a time when funds are being channeled into an unpopular war.

Just my opinion.. let it go, let them work and don't let everyone air their dirty laundry. Do we really need to know Avilla is afraid to go to his local Publix where people will ask him if the NHC can track storms or not? Personally, I think the guys at Publix are just having fun with him.. teasing him... And, I am sure they will be able to track storms... issue warnings, etc...

But... there is a bigger issue here that has now been highlighted?

What are our priorities?
Money only goes so far... if you put it in one place there isn't enough to go to the other.

What does the public feel about funding for agencies like the NHC and NOAA?
Do they just assume that when a satellite breaks a new one is sent up to replace it?

This highlights a whole lot more than whether or not directors of the NHC should be allowed to give their personal opinons while working for the government.

So... something to think on... and again, however you feel about this write your local politicians. Wasserman down here is beginning to get involved, a lot more people will before this is over trust me.

Oh..............and the wave is still wandering westward trying to maintain enough convection to get a designation.

Happy July 4th.. very happy to be an American and Love the USA!

and..Redsox winning so far... watching with my son.