Chantal Forming? Wave Splits and CMC model still calls for development.

Chantal may or may not be forming out of a wave that is splitting in the Carib. One part going north and making some people believe the CMC model has been onto something and the other part heading west. The northern part of the wave is what to worry on. Then again, there is a lot of shear out there and though I can see on the water vapor loop how it might come together I still think it's a long shot.

Whisperings around the web is that the Navy may post a NRL invest for the NHC.. maybe, says their plan of day is to do so but that is subject to change I am sure.

Model loop causing the fuss is posted. Let it load. Go to the FWD button and watch it crank up and head for New England.

Seeing how it was 100 in Washington and in the 100s a few places or my kids think it was... there is a lot of heat for it to latch onto and head for if the upper level steering currents tugged at it just right. So... keep watching.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007072000&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Worth watching... especially if you live up the coast.

In the world of congressional storms ... seems there may be more hearings.

Proenza may have lost the battle and won the war or is it vice versa? Either way... the issue NEEDS to be addressed and I may not want him as a boss (or maybe I would) but I am very happy to have him on the watch and not afraid to speak his mind.

We need money. We need changes in how we do things in hurricane research and forecasting. We need to get better.

Once we give up and inure ourselves to what is vs demanding the best we get what we settle on in life. You want better forecasts.. takes money. We need improvements in intensity forecasting and that is where we have failed over and over to improve. If we can't get the intensity part right than people in the Florida Keys or on the outer banks stop listening to evacuation warnings. If we insist a storm is going to intensify into a CAT 3 or 4 and when the storm is a 1 and they wasted time and energy evacuating they won't evacuate the next time a storm hits the mark track perfect but comes in as a Major and not a Category 1. People lose faith in the NHC even when they get the basic track perfect if the intensity is off.

Intensity forecasting is the holy grail gang..
I know that, others know that.. but the public doesn't quite understand it yet. Perhaps Proenza will get the last word even if it is not as the Director of the NHC but as the Previous Director of the NHC because as much as they can erase him from the website they cannot erase him from the web or history.

What is is.. deal with, he got the word out and for that he is my hero of the day.. tropically speaking. I have another but I'll just keep mum on that one :) but he knows who he is..and he is wonderful.

Back to work.. going out for dinner tonight and making stay at home shabbos tomorrow. Got work to do gang so gonna listen to Gretchen sing from her fantastic new CD and watch the water vapor spin..

Love and kisses.. think tropical weather, Bobbi

* * *

GRETCHEN WILSON LYRICS

"The Girl I Am"

Sometimes I cry for no good reason
sometimes I fight when I ain't mad
Sometimes it hurts and I ain't bleeding
Sometimes I laugh when things go bad

[Chorus:]

But I'll always be the girl I am
When life comes falling down on me I do the best I can
I never make apologies cause I don't give a damn
I'll guess I'll always be the girl I am

Sometimes I know there's something missing
Sometimes I want to start again
Sometimes I scream and none listens
Sometimes I feel like giving in

[Repeat Chorus:]

But I'll always be the girl I am
And When life comes falling down on me I do the best I can
And I never make make apologies cause I don't give a damn
I guess I'll always be the girl I am

And I never make apologies cause I don't give a damn
Yeah I guess I'll always be the girl I am