The Mean Season Begins... Investigation Ongoing at NHC

I just want to say here... I know a lot of people who are really sad and sort of depressed about what is going on at the NHC.

The NHC is an incredible place filled with very brilliant, wonderful people who do an amazing job forecasting under often difficult circumstances.

You want an example? Would you like to try forecasting 3 or 4 sets of advisories for 3 or 4 different storms affecting different parts of the Atlantic Basin during years like 1995, 1996 or 2004 and 2005? I don't think so. Lotta luck..takes real skill and patience in evaluating data from many sources and then various models calling for different tracks and... well they have done an incredible job.

Budgetary concerns have been a problem there for a long time, way before Bill came along and realized how bad it is. Money for more recon flights, keeping the number of flights, maintaining many satellites not just QuikScat but a whole system of satellites that are aging fast.

And, you have a lot of personalities, trust me.

And.........for years, decades all any young child who liked hurricanes or a tropical meteorological sort of person has ever wanted to do was aspire to one day work at the NHC and the more ambitious ones dream of being Director of the NHC.

It's a sad day when the whole agency begins to be looked upon as a big bunch of cry babies who don't like a new tough boss who wants to make changes and who was promoted from the outside and not from within. That is how many will always view this.

Proenza might be a bad guy to some, a hero to others but he will go down as someone who simply wanted to make changes and who was worried about the budget. He may go down as not a nice boss but most bosses are not most employees favorite co-workers.

Franklin (whether he wanted this fame or had it thrust upon him) and Kvetchy, Quirky Avila will go down as malcontents and the people signing the paper will be remembered as government employees who didn't want to go through proper means to complain about their superior or who wanted to take sides with Franklin/Pasch, etc. Work can be a drudge and having a new boss can be a pain and having to listen to someone you don't care for can be a real pain.. that is the bottom line. Rarely do workers get to pick their boss or vote on keeping him or her.

And, I doubt that these investigators are going to go away before they finish their investigations and then they have to write up a report and then they have to make a recommendation... which should bring us directly into the heart of the hurricane season. Even if Proenza decided after 40 years of service to suddenly retire for personal reasons to "spend more time with his family" the investigation will go on and I think it will be a long time before things are "normal" again and just wondering how much they are investigating... hoping they aren't sifting through emails, text messages and lord knows what..and just gathering opinions... thoughts.

So... I'm sad. I'm sad that some kid somewhere who loves hurricanes and always wanted to work at the NHC will suddenly rethink those dreams and wonder whether they should go work at TWC or ... just keep it as a hobby or... think less of the forecasters who really are amazing people going through a somewhat crummy time to put it nicely.

I'm sad that a man who wanted to address things that NEED to be addressed is in trouble from his superiors. And, I can't imagine those same superiors will really think well of lower level employees who make demands publicly and go up against their own boss. Things like that are not usually appreciated by government higher ups.

So... as much as y'all seem to think that the goings on at the NHC is making a great reality TV show in the absence of American Idol or Monday Night Football... know that if some wave explodes in 3 or 4 days and conditions change in the Atlantic Basin these guys will snap into place and settle down and put together one hell of a advisory. That much I know... because it is their job and they do it well, even if some of them are very unhappy campers with a head counselor they don't like very much.

Oddly the reason I made this blog several years ago was because of a group of my favorite hurricane friends who were tearing each other apart a few weeks before the season exploded.. they always do.. but this year... it was mostly the ones at the NHC and not just online people and playful make believe names on message boards, text messages and emails. It's that quiet time before the Mean Season gets going. The pressure builds ups just before things pop... hope those investigators get out of town before they have to hunker down and experience a real Tropical Storm!

Hey, I told someone recently that the heat, humidity and these daily severe thunderstorms in Miami are driving us all crazy.. now maybe they will belive me.

I'm posting this here below from HurricaneCity and it's Jim Williams thoughts on the matter. Jim writes very well, short and to the point (unlike me) and he says what many of us are thinking. He says it very well and I thought it was worth posting, so am doing so here because it's my blog and I can.

from www.hurricanecity.com

UPDATE BY:Jim Williams...The controversy continues down at the National Hurricane Center after new director Bill Proenza stated to the media that less accurate forecast's will result if the quikscat satellite fails. Several senior forecasters have said publicly the Bill Proenza should resign because his remarks are causing the public perception that forecasters cannot do their jobs properly. I find these comments by forecasters unacceptable, furthermore I heard Bill Proenza on a morning radio show here in south Florida state "some forecasters were having private meetings behind his back". If this is true,the forecaster responsible for this needs to be removed from his position immediately. If Bill Proenza keeps his job as director,you cannot have this kind of thing going on behind the scenes. If he looses his job over speaking out,the next director may have to deal with the same issues. I do not claim to know what is going on behind the scenes at NHC, but no matter how bad the relations are, Bill Proenza is the boss and sometimes new bosses like to shake old bad habits by employees over many years. I think NOAA should give Bill Proenza at least one year as director as see how things go & not relieve the man with the height of hurricane season around the corner. He is screaming for help at NHC,those that can help should be listening!.