Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, April 27, 2020

Thoughts on the Hurricane Season - Possible Analog Years. Constant Severe Weather in the Deep South. Watch Decaying Frontal Boundaries Always.

An awesome picture of the world today.`
From out of space... by way of satellite imagery.
Earth isn't wearing a mask.
Just it's people are wearing masks.
And I'm wondering on the Hurricane Season.
Is that moisture down in the Bay of Campeche?
Yeah, comes and goes and comes and goes.
That time of year....

Looking back at the recent drama in the EPAC

Today's a new day. Nothing specific to watch in the Tropics. Our area in the EPAC did become a Tropical Depression but they did not give it a name. It was the first known Tropical Depression in April and let me tell you May (in a few days) has had it's share of early Epac storms so stay tuned as the water is still warm and more are on the way.

How bout the Atlantic? I bet that's what you're wondering. Nothing official. A super strong cold front without much cold air but enough to rip through South Florida like it was advertising the coming Monsoon Season made it's way into the Florida Straits. It's remnants are draped from the tip of the Yucatan to the Florida Straits to Andros Islands in the Bahamas. The image about shows three things. The remnants of the 1st Tropical Depression in the EPAC, the front moving through South Florida and a strong ITCZ down where it belongs. The image is from last night. It's a good example of the current environment the last few days of April 2020.

A close up of that area in the BOC.
It comes and goes.

Early season Tropical Waves by Africa.
Typical to see them but not this healthy.
They flare up... cross the Atlantic.
Wash up near South America.

Just BOOM appears.
Then rolls into the not so warm ocean.
Trust me the ocean will warm up.

More worried on how warm the ocean is in the GOM.
Around Florida and near the Yucatan.
A good site below shows us the actual temperatures.

Note from about Tampa South the water is hot.
In the Florida Keys....
...South of Cuba.
The Yucatan and the Carib.
Warm enough to support activity...
...should a player appear.

Nothing there now....
Mesmerizing loop though.

GOES16-GM-08-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

Also watch off the East Coast.
As always the end of any front.
Any dangling, decaying frontal boundary.
Like we have currently...
..and one more will make it through soon.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

You can find this easily enough on Spaghetti Models

Why do I show this?
I've been watching the constant severe weather in the SE.
Severe Weather in the Deep South.
Watching for years with similar activity.

And some of those years correlate to other factors.
Watching for analog years.
1966 Tampa has a tornado in early April.
1953 Had violent tornadoes in the SE 
1996 has one in Selma, Alabama on April 19th
1998 Had a trio of deadly tornadoes...
Central Florida in February
Georgia to Virginia in March
April brought trouble to Alabama and Georgia.
Similar sort of continual sweeping storms to this year.
1999 had an April Tornado in Louisiana.

Just looking at patterns.
I'll put out my thoughts soon.

So that's where we are today in late April.

When looking at the tropics.
It's good to take a wide view....
... to see the pattern and the progress.
The progress of the movement of time... we slip from one season into another.

As our world today?
Interesting how we are isolated yet closer.
Zoom meetings, Zoom Parties.
We gonna need ZUMBA to get some exercise.

Board games and bicycles....
...have replaced the movies and the gym.

My whole family WhatsApp argued out a move.
Okay they discussed it.
A father teaching his son how to play.
Lot's of discussion on the rules.
Are there rules when you play at home?
Or do you agree on rules?

Incredible picture below....
...someone let someone go storm chasing with him.
Smart man. Awesome picture.

We live in an evolving world.
At some point soon the tropics will have evolved.
And we will see Arthur and Bertha in the Atlantic Basin.

Stay tuned...
Oh.....the year 1886 is bugging me too.
But let's not talk on that yet.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Interesting video.
Everything is up for debate.
But it shows how long germs could float in the air.
Something to think on while we begin to open up.
Wear a mask.... couldn't hurt. 

Friday, April 24, 2020

EPAC System Shows Signs of Development. RED Now 80% Could Become Amanda IF NHC Upgrades.

Above is where we stand now at 80%
Last night on Twitter when it was 50%

Look at that area this afternoon.
It's blooming....

As I said yesterday I'd talk today on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season unless something else popped up, and indeed the convective area many of us have been watching in the EPAC is now at 80% chances of getting the name Amanda should the NHC make that call. Currently it has a narrow window for development over the next few days as it moves out to sea away from land. It's early for the EPAC that officially starts on May 15th, but as I've said sometimes season's begin before the bell sounds and the yearly headlines. The names for the EPAC systems are shown below and the first storm is Amanda. Isn't that a pretty name?

Again the Atlantic names are shown below.
I don't want to confuse anyone here.
We are talking about the Eastern Pacific.
As I said yesterday the water is hot in both spots.

As for our 80% area... a closer looks shows us much.
There's structure and some banding.

Really nice looking "wave"
Or area being investigated.

This is an excellent example of what I said yesterday.
Whether this one develops or the next one....
You can't stop a train.
And you can't stop Mother Nature.
And Mother Nature doesn't quarantine
...nor does she go by NHC official dates.
The season starts early... ontime or late.
Expect the Atlantic to pop sooner rather than later this year.

Looking at Earthnull ....
Looks like it could become Amanada.
Time will tell.
But I do want to point something out.
The moisture feed enhancing our severe storms... coming from this system.

Everything is connected in the atmosphere.
Watch the video below and you'll see what I mean.

If anything happens later today I'll add it to the blog. Otherwise I'll blog on Sunday about more factors that are at play with regard to the upcoming Hurricane Season in the Atlantic. The main factor being the extremely hot water close in both in the EPAC and the Atlantic Basin, but more on that on Sunday. 

Been a long day for me. Looking forward to the Jewish Sabbath at sundown when there is no WhatsApp or Zoom Shiva Meetings. I know three people who died last night and yes I know them personally in one way or the other. A friend's mother died of Cancer (she was in hospice at home) and had a beautiful life that ended to soon for my friend her daughter. My daughter-in-law's cousin who was 46 years old that she grew up with in Boro Park died last night after being hospitalized from Covid... she leaves behind 10 children without a mother and a family in shock. A Rabbi in Crown Heights I knew well passed away this morning and yes I know some of his kids very well. I'm going to be really happy to be offline and not hear any bad news for at least 24 hours. I'm going to rest, relax, read and pray. I'm going to do some hurricane research on previous seasons that began early or had similar conditions and I'll back on Sunday for a longer blog. Unless I have to do an update on our 80% EPAC season.

Have a blessed, beautiful weekend. I hope you live in a part of the country not ravaged by Covid-19 but let me tell you the hot spots... in those areas hearing about someone who died is an every day occurrence. 

So treasure your day, hug your loved ones or blow them a kiss on Facetime or Zoom and be glad that your life is inconvenienced but otherwise okay. I suppose "okay" is a matter of perspective. But start making plans for how you are going to deal with Dolly or Fay as the real Hurricane Season heats up. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter or Instagram

Ps.. Don't you miss the ocean? I do. Til then .... I'll just pretend.

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Hurricane Season 2020 Forecast & Facts As We Know Them in Late April.

2020 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic Basin.

The names above are a FACT.
The first named storm will be Arthur.
Followed by Bertha.

The below is a FORECAST.
It's worth noting quality trumps quantity.
We can have more named storms but weak ones.
Conditions exist that inhibit them from strengthening.
When conditions exist that could enhance strengthening.
We have to pay attention and be ready to take action.
So don't look at last year's 18 named storms...
..and think oh CSU shows 2 less.
Last year we had many named storms ...
.... that were extremely weak!
Barely there ... but they got a name.
While some weak named storms always show up...
.. this year I'm worried on many stronger Hurricanes.
Major Hurricanes that could make landfall.
As always hope for the best ...
...but prepare for the worst.

The graphics are from TWC. 
As always the NHC is the official source of information.

As I write this blog there is a Tornado Warning in Georgia.
Another line of storms is tracing the last line of storms.
Easter Sunday Tornadoes were deadly.
Hoping today's tornadoes ....
...will not be deadly.

It's worth mentioning here Spaghetti Models.
Mike has put up a new feature available on YouTube.
Note the top square below.

When you click on that graphic.
It will take you to a variety of loops
Or to a featured area under a warning.
Currently it's showing the Tornado Warned area.

Please add it to your subscribed sites on YouTube.
As mentioned yesterday in my rant...
Many of us go to YouTube for news and updates.
I missed today's Cuomo Press Conference... 
With 2 daughters living in New York I watch it usually.
... I'll check it out on YouTube after proofing this blog.
In 2020 we have many options.
From the Apps we use to the websites we use.
From the people we subscribe to ...
... to the links others share with us.
As I said yesterday "choose wisely" 

Currently nothing is in the tropics to worry on...
We are in Severe Weather Season still.
A tornado warning exists today in Georgia.
That system moves into Florida and the Carolinas soon.
Off Africa there are your early pre-season waves.
And in the N Atlantic there are remnants of the last system.

Today's blog post is all about the Hurricane Season of 2020. I promised that yesterday and keeping my promise today. I'm giving my thoughts on our current situation with five important reasons that this coming Hurricane Season is forecast to be stronger than average and to have a higher potential for landfalling systems than other years when we could have a plethora of named storms that stay out at sea or fall apart victim to wind shear that is not forecast to be a large factor this year. That said, note wind shear forecasts are often iffy and subject to change but the patterns that exist and are evolving show a disturbing picture for what we will be facing sooner rather than later. The official start of the Hurricane Season in the Atlantic is June 1st, but very often we have an early season storm that makes landfall before the season officially begins. Mother Nature doesn't always obey the calendar rules as we all know when we see Springtime snow or Severe Weather in the Winter before Spring officially begins. Just as we can have 80 degree temperatures in North Carolina in March before a cold front races through and the temperature drops we may easily see Arthur in May not sometime in June.

When discussing "forecasts" for the Hurricane Season I need to mention Covid-19 because they will at some point collide and we must deal with it in an appropriate way. In the same way I'm giving an example of how forecasts and hyped headlines can change rapidly when dealing with Covid-19 from no worries on using a mask to cities and states advising you must wear a mask if you go to the store our outside in public. In the same way forecasts for a possibly weak season based on cool water temperatures may lead many to letting down their guard to suddenly having the rug pulled out from below them when a Major Hurricane such as Dorian is forecast to track dangerously close to their home towns in Florida. Forecasts are based on facts known at that time and they are subject to change so watch for updates frequently and learn from everything including our battle with Covid-19.

As promised yesterday I would buckle down today and begin a serious look at the 2020 Hurricane Season. It's been hard for me to jump into discussing this early as I normally do as we are all going through a difficult time dealing with the fast moving stream of information regarding Covid-19. Many of us have been personally impacted by the disease and the deaths of people we know and love as every day brings a new tragic story as well sometimes a happy story of someone leaving the hospital and going home that had previously been given low chances of surviving the disease. There seems to be a randomness to Covid-19 in that sometimes a young healthy person dies despite the discussion on older people being most at risk and then you read a story about some older person in their 90s who survived the disease. I believe all of the hype on how it mostly kills older people was over played and gave many younger people the misconception that they were almost invincible and that they only had to worry that their grandparents didn't die. While that is true on some levels, many young people have health conditions that go unnoticed or they simply were not able to fight off the disease. How often have you read about a high school football player who collapsed on a field in what seemed to be the healthiest phase of his life to only later find out he had a hidden heart defect that caused his death? The same such person would be a high risk if they contracted Covid-19 as often once in the hospital battling the disease the heart or the kidneys begin to collapse leading to a very long stay in the hospital or a devastating death for the family members who never expected he or she would succumb to the disease.

While mentioning the fact here that sometimes "facts" can be misconceived or misunderstood or sometimes later after learning more "facts" change - it's worth remembering that when looking at forecasts for the 2020 Hurricane Season. Sometimes, though rarely, weather conditions change unusually fast and a colder than average winter on the East Coast turns to a mild, winter without any accumulation of snow and despite the predictions made by experts "something changed" and that happened recently when the basketball season ended only to be followed by other sports stopping and theaters closing as we evolved into a world where the landscape looks different from any that we could have ever imagined. Oil dropped to a DOLLAR a BARREL and while gas is extremely cheap most of us are not currently commuting anywhere so supply and demand slammed an already difficult time for those who were used to being rich from the high price of oil. The Stock Market at all time record highs suddenly hit a wall and fell for days on end while many watched the value of their portfolios drop way lower than ever expected. While many said a correction was coming, no one saw the free fall that happened when the reality of the Corona Virus that was renamed Covid-19 became apparent and impacted the Stock Market.

Forecasts are predictions based on what we know currently as facts. Facts can often change.

Let's look back at the early Pandemic Predictions:

Cruise ship travel would most likely be okay.

No need to wear masks or gloves just stay a safe distance from others.

Social Distancing rules evolved from 4 feet to 6 feet to people feeling safer staying home.

Air Travel shouldn't be a problem was an early prediction and then.... we learned more facts.

Things changed.

The picture above is from the New York Times.
(Why isn't she wearing gloves?)
Hmnn ....
Note how spaced out passengers are here.

On Monday my best friend's two adult children who live in New York had to find a flight to Miami for the funeral for their father who died suddenly during the Covid-19 crisis in Miami to be with their other two siblings living there. The flights on JetBlue cost them $600 round trip each and there were only 50 passengers allowed on the plane with everyone spaced out wearing mandatory face masks and gloves. On Tuesday I watched with my best friend on Facebook Live that was live streamed the small funeral for friends and his many grandchildren to watch. Life in 2020 seems unreal but after a few weeks this has become "normal" and I mention it as I know many of us are going through similar sudden decisions on traveling to a funeral or wishing we could go to someone's house to comfort them and maybe bring a casserole but we are now limited to talking on Facebook Messenger, sharing pictures on Instagram and making a brief condolence call.

Below we have Alaska Airline crew members.
(Why don't they have on masks?
I know they are now wearing them.)
Maybe they thought the mask images would be scary.
The thought of flying now IS scary.
Not from a plane crashing or terrorism.
But from it being a "flying petri dish"
as many call it these days.

Link to their ongoing blog with helpful info.

Remember it's Alaska Air - No N.
The sweet crew member on board taught me that.
I flew Alaska Air in late February...
A Seattle trip squeezed in fast to see my kids there.
Because I knew things would change fast.
Spoiler Alert: They changed even faster than I expected.
Faster than forecast... if you get my drift.

So while reading 2020 Forecasts for the Hurricane Season.
Remember they are forecasts.....
....they may change in real time.
They may verify... they may not.

Let's hope they do not because the forecasts are wicked.
Wicked in that all signs seem GO for a strong hurricane season.

Why you ask?

Showing five reasons below today.
I'll continue to list other reasons soon.
Today I'm posting graphics from 2 meteorologists.
And every day or two I'll post two more experts.
You can compare and contrast their forecasts.

Today I'm starting with Crown Weather and CSU.
Why those two?
Because I have always admired their forecasts.
I admire and respect many others.
I'll post them too over the next few weeks.

Today I'm listing 5 Factors to remember.
Again I'll post more factors in future posts.

1. El Nino is not expected to be a factor this year. Neutral or more likely La Nina conditions will exist and it is possible if not probable that La Nina may show up as we move into August and September. IF that happens, it would favor a more active, dangerous hurricane season.

Note No El Nino doesn't mean La Nina ... maybe it stays Neutral but La Nina is looking possible.

2. Sea Surface Temperature forecasts continue to be warmer in areas that would produce hurricanes.

3. Forecasts for areas in Africa that may have more rainfall than normal could reduce the impact of SAL (Saharan Dust) but remember that SAL predictions are always prone to error and seasonally it usually disappears at the worst time as we move towards late August and early September. While watching it reign in May and June and July we often end up with a plethora of headlines giving the general public a sense of a false reality that gets ripped out from under them when SAL begins to disappear at the worst time possible Currently SAL may me mitigated by moist conditions nearby in Africa.  Think of this as being told you don't need to wear a "face mask" and then being told you "could if you want" then being told you will not be allowed in a store without one and then being told it's better to wear one when out in public around others. Again remember this ...things change and often they sometimes change fast. 

4. Signs in the Indian Ocean show we will have a strong hurricane season. Why watch the Indian Ocean? Because what happens in the Indian Ocean impacts Africa and what happens in Africa directly begins to impact us as we move into the heart of the Hurricane Season.  

5. The forecast is for a lack of Wind Shear across many areas for this coming Hurricane Season that would allow strong tropical waves to develop into hurricanes without being torn apart by shear. We often see incredibly formed tropical waves make it across the Atlantic and yet as they battle what is wind shear they succumb to the shear the way a young, seemingly healthy young football player on the field during practice collapses as mentioned previously. Very often a very moist, large, messy tropical wave turns into a poorly organized tropical storm and then finding a fast sweet spot develops into a hurricane closer to our side of the world. But strong shear or negative conditions can literally topple the named storm everyone is worried on the way a large, tall, improperly secured crane topples over when hit with stronger than expected winds.

Below is Hurricane Debby's NOAA report.
Wind shear suddenly strengthened.
And Hurricane Debby toppled over like a falling crane.
There's more to the story but this is the official one below.

The hype in Miami was off the charts.
People were packing up in the Florida Keys.

This old forecast track shows why people were worried.
An image of Debby in her "better days" before...
...wind shear began to strengthen.

I mention this as even now..
Shear Forecasts are often iffy ...
...and often Shear develops fast.
Or wind shear suddenly disappears.

Wind shear forecasts favor a busy hurricane season.
During El Nino wind shear protects some areas.
Especially the Caribbean and the GOM.
This year we cannot rely on that wind shear to be there.

I'll give more reasons I am concerned on the 2020 Hurricane Season later as we move into May and the concern for early season storms forming before June 1st becomes a reality.

But for now the 5 factors listed above are what I want you to take away from today's blog.

Someone I leaned to trust and enjoy reading is Rob from that I commonly refer to as "Crown Weather" as I learned over time and across many avenues of social media (as we go way back) to appreciate his cautiousness and when he shows concern to take it seriously.  In 2017, 2018 and 2019 his Pre Season Maps were spot on and he nailed the locations Hurricane Florence would threaten eventually landfall as well as Hurricane Michael months ahead of the peak of the hurricane season. The year that Maria and Irma traipsed across the Atlantic, slamming into islands in their path and scaring everyone on the East Coast and Florida he drew those possible tracks in his Pre-Season maps. It really doesn't get better than that for picking up on current and long term trends and applying them to predicting where hurricanes may track and make landfall. is a pay service, you can write him and ask for payment or donation information but it's better than the average information you will find on Twitter, Instagram, your family WhatsApp Group or where ever you get your general information. He posts regularly online on Twitter with excellent information. Note the people on TV in your local viewing area do a great job but honestly they rarely veer away from the official NHC or the CSU forecast shown below and until a hurricane is headed directly towards your town their information is informative yet basic. When you want better information with more details sometimes you gotta pay for it or really know how to find it online.

The link to Rob on Twitter 
@crownweather (easy to remember)
If you see this picture you have the right person.

Understand Rob is a very good writer.
A good communicator.
It's good for meteorologists to be able to ...
...clearly communicate information.
That's important.
I'm using a few of his images below.

When I said shear could be low....
.... that would be a problem.
If the forecast verifies.
Note the areas below in blue.
If shear is low there....
It means waves turn into named storms.
And are not blown apart by shear.
How strong they would get is a question.
But the potential is there for strengthening.

Again graphics from Crown Weather.

Below Average Wind Shear is not good.
It allows hurricanes to form.
Often those regions in the Carib have high wind shear.
The wind shear protects the Carib and ....
......inhibits then from strengthening.
This would favor storms that track West...
..... into Central America.
Or they could drift over the Yuctan... storms often do.
Then strengthen in the GOM
Once in the GOM ..someone gets hit.
@bobbistorm on Twitter for any questions.

Below we have "peak of the season"
Note this would favor Caribbean/GOM storms.
Also storms coming at Florida from many directions.
Storms such as Cleo that came up from Cuba.

Or any hurricane that hits from the ESE...
...heading WNW 
Look at Cleo coming up from Cuba.
Then look at the graphic below.
It shows how that could happen.
Every hurricane is different.
Every year is different in some way.

The graphic below I've shown before.
Rob will fine tune it over time.
When you understand the shear problem shown above.
As well as where warm water may be.
Steering currents.
You will better understand the graphic below.
It shows areas of the coastline in danger.
In danger as per our early forecasts.
2020 has been a year of unusual events....
...that pop up fast suddenly.
Things change.
From Covid 19 to Tornadoes in the South.
So use it as a guide early on.
East Coast would be vulnerable.
Note below CSU shows this also.
And GOM is a concern.
The Caribbean is a high concern.
Note also CSU points this out below.

So moving on to the CSU report.
Lots of detail and more academic.
But you can understand if it you go slow.
And many of you here know your lingo.
Several important point are mentioned by Phil.

An old picture of Phil with Dr. Gray.
Phil carries on Dr. Gray's legacy.
He's older now but still has very youthful looks.
You can follow him on Twitter.

Graphics from the CSU forecast that I find particularly relevant to remember.

The first graph below shows you in bright red lines how this season's potential seems to be way above average for trouble, exceeding Climatology. Basically saying higher odds on it being stronger than most average seasons based on "climo" as we often refer to it. Generally climo wins out over hype and worry when watching tropical waves forming into hurricanes, but in sometimes forecasts are heaped high with positive factors vs negative factors and we all know this 2020 how we prefer negative results to positive ones so keep that in mind.  You may read the whole report linked below to understand this graphic better, but you can look at it and see that the forecast for 2020 currently exceeds the normal climo probabilities.

Please refer to the link below and look for this graphic in the report towards the end of the long report. I say long in a good way as year back when I would carefully read Dr. Gray's report I would learn much from reading and studying the details. Sometimes the forecast verified all too well and other times such as in 1997 when the "Mother of All El Ninos" came out of nowhere much like today's Covid-19 and the forecast was a bust it ended up being a very slow hurricane season. But, whether the forecast verifies or is a bust or is somewhere in between the point of reading the long, detailed report is that you learn much on the whys and hows a season is impacted by specific factors and trust me you will know more than you knew before you took the time to read it. And, thanks to Covid-19 and our new world where many of us can't go to work or the hairdresser or the Mall or the movies or meet Aunt Dolly or Sally at our favorite dining spots we have a bit more down time and can read up and research topics we love to learn more about so if you got the time... sit down with a cup of coffee or tea or whatever you enjoy and read and learn. Spoiler alert...when you click on this image or go to the report it shows that all areas are at an enhanced risk this year but especially the East Coast 92% and the Caribbean 94% much higher than the average year. Also refer to his report as sometimes he includes the Florida Peninsular in the "East Coast" statistics so be sure what he means when he uses terminology that may not jive with your vision of the Hurricane Coast. 

Link to the last CSU forecast that will be updated next on June 4th, 2020.

LASTLY... Bobbi's Bottom Line here today is this:

I'm concerned that the Year of Covid-19 could evolve into The Year of Deadly Hurricanes and that is not hype and no I cannot tell you if this will be the Bertha to get the name finally retired or Dolly will or won't be a Category 5. But what I can tell you is that this year's current forecast based on current conditions portends a deadly hurricane season for someone and we may have multiple deadly Major Hurricanes as we had when Irma and Maria came close together.

I am mentioning Irma because the sort of wild rush to evacuate Florida and the search for safe shelters will be severely negatively impacted by the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. How so? Well most of us are low on funds and even those who had money put away for an emergency have less money put away for an emergency. Many people are out of work, travel is discouraged and contact with people at rest stops or buying gas are now health concerns and as for food chain lines.... as I said earlier things change fast these days. We've been told food chains would not be impacted yet currently several chicken, pork and meat producers have had to close up because people tested positive. They will open up again in theory soon but at times our "food supply chain" may be impacted so keep that in mind and hopefully it will not be a factor.

We were told to stop "hoarding food" because the food chain lines will be fine. We were also told not to go out often, so we aren't so much hoarding as buying food that will last for several weeks before we buckle up into our hazmat suits or begin putting on our masks or gloves and our now every present hoodie covering our head and venturing out in search of pasta and tuna fish and whatever produce that we hope will last more than a week or two. Perhaps you are the type that isn't wearing a mask nor wearing gloves and going shopping as you were while trying to maintain a safe distance from people ...especially those who are coughing or who look sick.... you still may have to wait in line a long time come July or August to get into a store to buy hurricane supplies way longer than you normally do when you think "this is crazy" because what if we hit a peak again in August and stores limit shoppers and you may get online for your local Publix blocks away from the actual store. I'm not saying this will happen. I am saying this could happen and you MUST figure it into your Hurricane Season Preparation this year.

So if you are at the store this week buy an extra few tins of tuna and put them in a box and do not use them. Buy an extra peanut butter and hide it away the way you would a candy bar from your hungry teenagers. Buy an extra bottle of bleach or any disinfectant supplies you can get your hands on for the Hurricane Season. And, I hate to say this but it is very possible that this virus goes on deep into 2021 as Pandemics similar to the Spanish Flu don't just disappear overnight when it's convenient for us or when the calendar year changes so if you don't use the tuna by November 30th, 2020 feel free to transfer your Hurricane Supplies to your Covid-19 supplies.

I'll continue to show different predictions for this Hurricane Season and add layers of perspective for you to think on and research yourself over the next month. I'll talk on Analog Years given by many including the years that I believe are Analog Years and show old hurricanes from those years. Thanks for letting me rant yesterday as I needed to get that off my chest and be able to move on to being serious about the Hurricane Season because to be honest we really need to take this Hurricane Season seriously because we've seen from recent tornadoes, severe weather, hail and earthquakes Mother Nature is not in quarantine or socially distancing and she has ripped people's homes that they were staying home in apart and tossed them wildly off their foundations in deadly tornadoes. That's heartbreaking but it should be a stark reminder to you that not only can't you reason with hurricane season you can't reason with Mother Nature either.

Be Safe....  BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

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Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Earthquake in LA. Hail Stones the Size of Baseballs. Hurricane Season in 40 Days. Life in 2020... The Year of Covid-19. And a Rant at the End... Because I Needed to Rant.

Severe Weather forecast for the South again.
Well that weather is on the move today...
You might want to follow Cranky.
I do... he's brilliant and creative!!

So is DaBuh in his way too.

Some people see faces in clouds.
He sees animals and signs in maps.
I personally love anyone who loves maps.
Especially weather maps...

Jokes aside he's right on the money here.
This we know for sure.
Somewhere in that red box....
... something will form and develop.

We also know the names of the Canes of 2020.

Your child may not have a graduation.
But one of these names will be graduated... hurricane or Major Hurricane status.
Remember those names.
The names of 2020.

So I stayed up late last night playing online.
I needed to unwind.
And Weather Twitter was on fire last night.
Actually the Hail Forecasts verified.
If the Hurricane Season Forecast verifies ...
.. we will be in trouble.
We may see Arthur sooner rather than later!

Thanks to everyone last night.

Is that an incredible photo from Pawnee Storm Chasers?
It made me wax poetic. 
So was those pics of the Hail Balls.

Yes been a crazy 12 hours or so of weather.
Weather and Geological madness.
And it seems the beat will keep going on today.

Last night I stayed up late watching the Hail Storm.
Elk City, Oklahoma got slammed.
Baseball sized hail!
Check out the construction inside that hail stone.
Hail Ball?

Then there were Tornado Warnings for NYC and NY earlier.

Kind of feels like "what next right?"
I know you're laughing thinking...
"End of the World??"
Maybe not laughing....

Not only did NYC have a tornado weather threat...
.....LA had a small but noticeable earthquake.

Oh and there's more weather danger coming this week...

So if you don't have a loved one in the hospital...
...or are reading this from your sick bed.
And you didn't get shaken in LA...
...or worried on the tornado in NYC.
Or are getting hail threats in OKC today...
Then you may be having an OK day.

I know it's a big country.
We do have a Pandemic going on you know.
And the Hurricane Season is only 40 days away.
(it may begin early this year....
...the water is hot, hot, hot)

So if you didn't get clobbered by baseball sized hail ....
...or shaken out of bed by an earthquake. 
Then you may not be able to identify with my rant below.

Or maybe you can.
I needed to write.
I needed to get my thoughts out.
I needed to get this off my chest.
I'm tired of news not covering news.
What happened to Headline News?
You remember that?
If you were born before Facebook maybe you do.
They would show... THE NEWS.
And they would repeat it.
So you knew if something big happened... could put on Headline News.
I'll admit it.
I was a MySpace girl ;)

Really ...the news... not Agenda...
Not Editorializing.
Just the news.
Just the facts.

So if you are here just for weather.
Hurricane Season is 40 days away.
I'll be nonstop all about hurricanes soon.
Pinky promise ;)

If you want to read a rant...
Read away.
I needed to rant.
If not... have a great, beautiful day.
Hope you get your tattoo...
...hope you find someone who delivers.
Hope you find flowers in the yard.
Hope all your loved ones are healthy.

If you wish to read the rant...
Keep reading.

A day in my life....
... wishing we had Headline News again.

* * * 

This is a picture of me.
Just a few years ago. 
Maybe 2 or 3.
Standing staring at the ocean.
Warm day in the Spring... 
My daughter took it... 
... kind of iconic Mommy at the ocean.

I love the ocean.
Looking forward to going again.
Soon when it's safe to go ...
When will that be?
Don't know.
NC is opening them slowly.
But trying to cater for now to locals....
...who can walk to the beach.

Surf City NC opened the beaches.
Kept all parking lots closed.
Kept all public bathrooms closed.
If you can't walk home to use your bathroom...
...stay home.

Eventually we'll go to Wrightsville Beach again.
I'm okay with staying home today.
Going for a walk .. maybe.
Tomorrow is severe weather day here...
...waiting ;)

A bit of a rant here. Being honest, I get tired and annoyed with Agenda Driven News Stories. And, yes I capitalized it because it is definitely a thing worthy of capitalization. There's a hail storm headed towards the Oklahoma City area the morning after Mother Nature hit Elk City with huge hail balls last night and I say hail balls as they were the size of baseballs. What does TWC have on this minute? They are doing a story during a life threatening pandemic with a wild hail storm headed towards a big city while people on worried on the recent Earthquake in LA? They are doing a story on managing our carbon footprint. More specifically listing our current concerns such as allowing cows to wander near trees as to protect the trees from being cut down and making them woody pastures because of course we have to protect the environment and funding for Family Planning Clinics specifically "because we need to lessen the carbon footprint" on Planet Earth. Seriously? Definitely an AGENDA driven story episode that I'm not interested in hearing on a morning when I wanted to know about the hail storm or maybe some reference to the Earthquake and talk on weather when the Hurricane Season is 40 days away. I have to tell you in my whole life (and I'm not in my 20s) I never had to go to a Family Planning Clinic to get Birth Control and the Morning After Pill is available at my kid's colleges in vending machines next to Tacos, Yogurt and Aspirin. This is not the 1950s ... Natalie Wood is not wandering the streets with what's his name trying to find a back alley abortion. Reproductive rights are important but I don't need stories on TWC trying to link them to worrying on our "carbon footprint" Oh my goodness. I just want weather news on TWC and news on the NEWS channels.

Newsflash here as relates to what is going on today in the world no one is driving anywhere unless they have to if they are essential employees and our Carbon Footprint has been greatly reduced thanks to Covid-19. For that matter the smog in China ebbed quite a bit recently when they shut down cities such as Wuhan and Beijing and less people are going on cruise ships (big polluters) and no one wants to get on an airplane right now unless a parent died and they feel they just have to pay $600 round trip to fly on a plane with 50 people spaced out rows apart all wearing masks and gloves. It's like they are stuck in the 1980s or 1990s or back when Greta got a Nobel Peace Prize and may I add here that while her concern for Planet Earth is incredibly commendable... personally I think that the Nobel Peace Prize should be given to someone who comes up with a vaccine for Covid-19. Couldn't we just hit the germs with some ray gun used in Star Wars or Battlestar Galactica??

Loved that show........

Okay disclaimer here some people seem that they NEED to get in their cars and drive around the city with cheap gas to protest the fact that the politicians are trying to protect the people from a deadly virus that is extremely contagious and has killed many people I know personally people in NY, Israel and Florida who died or lost a parent who died ......but for some reason the paraders don't think it will get to Georgia or Virginia so they have hit the roads. Looks like some scene that would be in an old movie that Carl Reiner might have made if this was 1965. It would be funny if it wasn't so ... stupid. Hey Cuomo says it's "stupid" and he's the most logical politician I know right now... just my opinion and I'm not a Democrat. As he just said and being a Beach Girl I can so relate. Just because the FIRST WAVE didn't knock you off your feet, doesn't mean the 2nd Wave may not knock you off your feet or kill you. It's all about the wave.......   and as he says "you sneeze and I get sick" "I sneeze and you get sick" "you have to act responsibility" yeah tell that to the Wackiest Car in the Car Parade in Virginia.

My husband is a Financial Planner and he watches the morning financial news so it's on the TV in the other room until he leaves for work. I debate putting it on but decide to go to CNN to check out any information on the Earthquake other than what I'm getting from my Twitter friends. CNN is doing a story mocking the President about the drug that "doesn't work" because one study done said it did not .... note I have a few friends in NY who were given the drug early on and saw immediate turnarounds and were soon released from the hospital while their family was worrying they would be making funeral arrangements soon. Was it the drug combo? Was it something else the doctors were doing? Was it the prayers in the prayer groups made by their friends? Who knows. Too soon to tell, but they are better. Mostly I know when given early on before a person's whole system is shutting down the drug seems to have worked well in areas in upstate NY where I know many people who took it and were not hospitalized. It's an ugly dance when someone is hospitalized with Covid-19 and often the doctors and nurses try nonstop to keep the body going while the kidneys begin to give up and their body doesn't want to breathe on it's own after being on the respirator and the heart often has to be stabilized frequently and people keep praying. The logic of attacking something before it has totally ravaged your body does make some sense. I turned CNN off and switched the channel.

I put on FOX NEWS that was interviewing some political person in Wyoming (yes people do live there) where there have been less than a 1,000 cases of Covid-19 and he wants to get back to business. Hmnnn .... okay.... sounds logical but with the proper masks and possibly they should put a barbed wire fence around their state and shut down the roads first to keep those running away from New York to stay out of Wyoming. I love New York but many don't have work or are on a semi permanent vacation there and some have started looking for work or vacation in places where the hourly death toll and news of who tested positive and who is in or out of the hospital or where a funeral will be held for someone you know but you can't go to the funeral is a daily thing.  (I know long run on sentence but this Year of 2020 has been one long run on sentence ) Suddenly a long drive out I-80 sounds like one of those bucket list things you have always wanted to do and as New Yorkers are not very welcomed right now in Florida they are heading West towards the open road and wide open spaces. Bloggers are blogging and people on YouTube are documenting their "hit the road vacations" while out of work with cheap gas and money they got in their bank account. Hey... better on the road then living in Manhattan. The lady on FOX sitting in her car being interviewed (think about it) said there is no reason she should have to stay home from work and lose money she is not sick and she is healthy. Think about it.... maybe she can go to Georgia if she's a hairdresser and get up close and personal fast with someone who is sick but really needed her hair cut because she's had enough also.

Note it's not against the law to take a road trip.
State borders are open.
Gas is cheap.
It's a thing.
Becoming popular...

So I switched the channel and then I landed on "The Andy Griffith Show" by accident because it's on TV in NC ALL DAY LONG on some channel and it being 54 not 45 I got to see Ron Howard as an awkward precocious child telling some girl with pigtails that he guesses he is popular. Oh my gosh....... I've got to stop hitting 54 instead of 45 on the remote.

Then I went to Channel 45 that is MSNBC and a reporter wearing a Face Mask is explaining how the state of Georgia that is having a problem with Covid-19 vs let's say Wyoming needs to open the tattoo parlors on Friday but restaurants need to wait until Monday. HUH? Explain this to me someone really needs to die with a tattoo that says "I survived Covid-19" in three weeks rather than eat in a restaurant with new space restrictions at a table where you won't hear the person next to you talking about their prostate surgery that they need but that was canceled because the tattoo parlor needed to be open first ..........oh my gosh. Note reporters on MSNBC are wearing Face Masks kind of like Dr. Deborah always wears a huge scarf and personally I don't think that's a fashion statement with the smart doctor. Yes all their reporters are now wearing masks....some nicely color coordinated with their gloves. Now they are doing a story on the world's first Earth Day (not the one in the Bible ... the other one) that must have been fun like a festival with girls flirting with cute boys ... I'm just guessing you know ;)

I will say I liked this reporter.
The pink mask with the purple gloves.
Nailed it!

I'm currently watching YouTube ...
 CNN MSNBC and FOX broke away from Cuomo.
They show him then break away ...
...but he's live on YouTube ;)
All 3 are showing agenda driven "stories"
Not really NEWS as in Breaking.
I have 2 kids who live in NY.
I want to hear his Press Conference.
He's good today.
So I muted the TV ....
...watching TWC actually showing some weather.
Radars, satellite loops... Texarkana area.
I'm listening to Cuomo on YouTube.

Because in 2020 one thing we have... options.

Many of my friends gave up Cable TV.
I like it... I like options.
But liking it less and less.
Just saying.

And when I need Weather News FAST.
Maybe he'll chase weather on Thursday?
He's also on YouTube.

Do you wonder why people are watching news on YouTube by people that are fun to listen to or talk on things you really need to know like if weather is hitting soon or for more information on an Earthquake hitting Los Angeles or watching a model/actress showing people what to wear (if they could afford it) for flying cross country? There's a YouTube channel for everything and everyone these days and you probably will enjoy it more than bothering with CNN FOX or MSNBC. Well if it's the Hurricane Season then TWC (they are really great with an impending hurricane about to make landfall) is the best when it comes to weather news on Cable. Just now my best friend told me she's collecting weeds in her backyard (she's home for a change, walking barefoot in the backyard) and found a pretty little purple plant she knows I'd love and she's sending me YouTube Channel options of people she's watching.  Okay she watches some wild stuff. Did u hear the one about the planet being shut down for 3 days to reset the computers and financial system?  okay... thought that happened for me over the 3 day holiday of Passover. Note my other best friend just heard about the dangers of 5G because she found "someone" talking about it on YouTube too!! Choose your YouTube Channel News carefully.......

This is where we are in 2020... my kids watch Ted Talks and HULU and I watch Netflix on my daughter's account. Actually I watch HULU on my son's account. I joined TikTok to watch my granddaughter's videos... since we are doing true confessions. My best friends are watching YouTube all day looking for interesting news stories or finding beautiful weeds in their backyard again as they are home as they are essential to me but not for the economy.

Screenshot of my current Facebook Messenger.
Conversation with one of my 2 best friends.
She knows me so well.
Look a purple "flower"

Okay I'd probably have put it in a small vase too!

Rediscovering the backyard barefoot.
Picking pretty purple "flowers"
Talking to best friends again all day...
WhatsApping and on the phone for real!!
My ex-husband is showing the funny video..
..that my best friend sent me...
Then I forwarded it to him.
After the Virtual Funeral we really needed ... smile and laugh again.

I'm digressing. I'm rambling. I'm enjoying this because I really needed to get this off my chest and be done with it. Note my ex-husband has a Facebook Live and he's talking about a nice conversation with our smart son in Seattle who is against opening things up too soon. God Bless those kids with brains.......  I love Seattle. Now I'm talking to my brother who lives in Greece on Facebook Messenger who just made a video he put on YouTube that's getting lots of hits.  Now I'm signing into a class I participate in from Crown Heights on the phone by way of some service in Iowa where we learn together or I listen ...which I'm doing while proofreading this rant post. They are talking on the solar eclipse and the how when it's dark in the middle of the eclipse everyone waits to see the Corona appear. So true. Ironic.... "we are overwhelmed often but how do we deal with it is the question and therein lies the answer" and I'm so grateful that Devorah Leah is out of the hospital where she was for 5 days back home giving her class online... love her voice, she's so incredible. After this I'll go check on my other kids on Instagram because we don't really talk on the phone we post on Instagram. It's almost 2 PM and I haven't eaten yet today, just going on coffee fumes and some asthma meds. Time moves so fast these days. Soon I'll make "lunch" and fold the laundry and clean in the other room and make dinner. Whoosh... 2020 has been a hoot indeed. Speaking of hoots I have a friend whose listening to the owls in her forested backyard here talk to eachother. We have all stopped running around physically to the Mall or a restaurant or Starbucks or the gym or work.....and are amazingly busy doing things be they blogging or being in a "car parade" or watching old movies or learning to speak Chinese or cook Chinese or Thai or how to make Jamaican Jerk Chicken (yes that was for you Jay).

My best friend Sharon who sent me the funny video I forwarded to my ex-husband who Sharon was friends with first vs Malka who sent me the flower picture just gave me this update on someone we have been praying for and I quote "some good news to report.... earlier this evening he was able to track his nurse's finger with his eyes ... his ventilator settings are a little lower and he needs less medication to help him sedated" Wow that is wonderful news, her daughter-in-law's father (a really nice man ...) has been in the hospital for weeks in NYC and I'm in a prayer group for him. Hope this continues, I want him well and able to see his grandchildren get married and spend time with his family again. The nurses and doctors are doing a wonderful job.

Maybe my world is different than many people in Georgia who really need their Tattoo Parlor to open up and think getting their hair done professionally is essential to their health rather than staying home and staying alive. I'm pretty sure somewhere there's a hair dresser who will come to your house with a mask on and take a chance to cut your hair because they need money. Hasn't anyone in America ever learned about how the Black Market works? Come on...there are people everywhere doing things under the radar carefully for cash and if you got the money and if you don't think you will be in danger it's your hair go for it...what happens in your house stays in your house. Well unless you give the hair dresser your Covid-19 that you didn't think you had because you weren't having any symptoms. Good for u... not so good for the hairdresser who hopefully won't have bad symptoms and have their family praying that you will be able to follow the nurse's finger with your eyes.

I don't know what to tell you. We are all different. There's a lot that doesn't make sense. Why Harvard needed money that should have gone to people with small businesses I don't know. I worked in Academia and I know first hand there are many slush funds in colleges and money squirreled away that you can't imagine. I had to sit in on high level Faculty Meetings to discuss where we were hiding money that was given to us to be used for something we weren't using it for "yet" because we were making lots of money as it sat in the bank account accumulating interest. And, as much as I LOVE NYC and have taken pictures myself personally in front of the fountain at the Kennedy Center I don't think they should have gotten money that should have gone to the people out of work trying to get by on macaroni, lentils, rice and hot dogs if not using the money for their rent Just saying....  Just my view, I'm sure you have your own views. My blog, my views.

Dozes of Weather Apps on my phone.
But love the pictures on Yahoo ;)
And it's fast and easy.
And shows me the Covid update for my county!
And my kid's counties...
.... lot's of cities I'm watching.

Thanks for reading this long rant post and trust me I will be talking about HURRICANES really soon as we are ramping up heading into the Hurricane Season that may seriously come early as the water offshore Florida is very hot upping the possibilities of Pre Season Trouble. Note I am saying daily prayers of gratitude that I got married, moved away and live in North Carolina where it is currently 62 degrees at 1 PM according to my Yahoo Weather App with the pretty pictures. There are also 12 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in my county. Why does Yahoo understand what people want to know today.... yet The Weather Channel is still worrying on their agenda of reminding us to lower our carbon footprint (trust me my friend Malka isn't driving to Miami Beach today as she's not working but wandering through her yard barefoot lowering the Carbon Footprint today) so maybe TWC needs to drop the AGENDA and CNN needs to stop complaining about the little orange man and FOX needs to stop reminding everyone that Nancy Pelosi has a refrigerator that cost more than your family car. Thumbs up to MSNBC for showing the world people can wear masks and work and be a part of the solution not the problem.

Speaking of YouTube I was looking for info on the earthquake this morning and found this great map on a friend's YouTube video about the LA earthquake. Great map. He posted someone's tweet and this is the best map I've seen. That's not offshore folks and not the High Desert that's downtown LA pretty much. My ex-husband used to have a store near there, I know LA really well we lived there in the 1980s. I love LA and am addicted to any news about an earthquake in LA. So if you're interested he did a great round up of earthquake tweets and news, he follows earthquakes too... and volcanoes and comets oh my.

My prayers for you all.
No matter if you want to quarantine til 2024...
...or if you want to open up the tattoo parlors.
Stay healthy.
Wear a mask... gloves can't hurt.
Keep a good sense of humor.
Thanks for reading this blog.

Tomorrow it will be all about Hurricanes.
(well unless a meteor falls out of the sky...
...or Yellowstone goes Boom)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps...sorry for any typos... 
My Bronkaid wore off and the Benadryl kicked in..
Pollen problems ... it's a thing.