Getting Closer to the Season

I can feel it, even though we just had a late season cold front move all the way down into the Miami area and had thunder tonight briefly during the interaction of the air masses, hot and cold, mixing tumultuously in the tropical night..

Tornadoes in odd places ... where is the jet? Where will be the flow this season? What sort of season will we see? So much to think on...

Soon we will know... only time will tell...

Only Time..



Stay tuned... getting closer to the real thing.

Happy Earth Day! And, Looking for a Pre-historic Climatologist to Debate Global Warming...

Just wanted to say hello and wish the earth and everyone on it... a beautiful, green, happy earth day!

Personally.. I plan on enjoying Planet Earth today on the island I love the most... the spot I love the most with a wonderful specimen of Planet Earth.. one of the nicest men the planet has yet to show me...

Both Flora and Fauna are beautiful today!

We are less than a month away from the start of the Hurricane Season in the East Pac when all those little waves bounce off the west coast of Central American and Panama and lolly gag about the warm waters trying to get to some of Mexico's finest resorts.. some even get to dance their way north far enough to Baja.. even though most just go west bound and fall apart in cooler waters. And..then.... the Atlantic boils.. bubbles, toils and trouble forms off the coast of Florida somewhere north of the Bahamas and somewhere southeast of the Carolinas..when some early season sub-tropical forms. Could happen early this year.. Look to May for an early season in sub-tropicals as a low already sits out there producing beautiful beach breezes in South Florida and rougher surf up the coast.

Anything is possible in 2008! So buckle your seat belts ..its going to be a bumpy ride!

But today... on Earth Day.. try and not pollute planet earth and leave the bickering over global warming to the experts.

Personally........... when you can rouse me up some ghosts of global warming scientists of yesterday who can really debate what planet earth was like in the 1300s or the 1800s or maybe a few pre-paleontological era scientists who tried to study the effect of rotting dinosaur carcasses on the planet and how the volcanoes were really stinking things up back around the turn of the dawn of time..only THEN can we have a REAL discussion on Global Warming and what things were like then vs now.

So.. grab someone you love, a bottle of wine, a loaf of bread or a piece of matzah and have a beautiful Earth Day.

Love and kisses, Bobbi
On the road to my favorite Rock ;) to celebrate Conch Days!
Ps.. yeah, I'll stand by my favorite climatologists in this ongling, warm debate that produces way too much hot air for Planet Earth to handle. This may be the REAL cause behind Global Warming! Perhaps the problem of pollution that the early Chumash Indians had in the LA Basin BEFORE people found a way to clog up I-10 with exhaust fumes was from the mammoths who died trying to find safe ground at the La Brea Tarpits.. you never know.. so much we don't know before man began to record time and his experiences on Earth....

Musical Weather Moments... and Tropical Buzz

So.. been a bit quiet while I sit and wait and wonder on this coming 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. A bit too quiet. Sorry.

Been so much buzz regarding the AMS meeting, Kerry Emanuel's new article that was recently released and where we are in this current La Nina Pattern.

Everyone's talking about it :)

Everyone loves to talk weather.. here's our President.. talking weather with the biggest and the brightest ;)



The Kerry E's article link is here:

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Emanuel_etal_2008.pdf

Enjoy... I have my views, I enjoy reading everyone else's views and trying to piece it all together like a good goulash! Hungarian, of course!

Then there is the 2008 update put out by Dr. Gray and Phil..

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2008/april2008/apr2008.pdf

Don't you love a man who can wear a purple shirt ;)
I adore him personally... he's better in person than in a sound bite! He just towers right over me. I think he even towers over Chris..



Cliff notes for those of you without a weather glossary or without a mathematics degree...

15 named storms
8 hurricanes
4 majors
***gutsy call on the 4 majors in my opinion

Analog Years:
Year NS NSD H HD IH IHD ACE NTC
1950 13 98.00 11 59.50 8 18.50 243 247
1989 11 66.00 7 31.75 2 9.75 135 130
1999 12 78.50 8 41.00 5 14.25 177 182
2000 14 67.00 8 32.75 3 5.00 116 130


And, while working I am surfing my way through youtube's world and watching some of the greatest dancers in the world dance their cares away in the rain...

I'll be back soon and say something meteorologically profound but as I clean for Passover, get ready for family and guests coming in from out of town, process books in the library while the students are away on Passover break ... and take walks on South Beach my mind is profoundly messy and the hurricane season seems so far away... and I'm busy reading my emails from my email group that is giving me a deeper appreciation for those in the know in the world of Hurricane Prediction. Thank you YKW..

Incredible.. simply incredible dance scene...better than Singing in the Rain (sorry Dave ... it's my blog.. my call)


Always Fair Weather... nothing like a man who can dance on Rollerblades.. or skates.........





For Dave Schwartz:




Don't worry.. be happy, I'll be back soon with something to say..


Besos Bobbi
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjnvSQuv-H4

Inside Info says...

Gonna be an interesting Atlantic Hurricane Season this year.

Dr. Gray and his wunder genius Phil may be updating their storm totals sometime in the near future.

Last report:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2007/dec2007/dec2007.pdf

Waiting for the new report due out soon.

Something about La Nina, something about early rainy seasons, something about extreme weather and hot, hot water off the coast of Iberia.

He was quoted in a news article as saying "Also, the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic particularly off Iberia and off northwest Africa, they are very warm, much like they were at this time in 1995 and 2005 when we had very active seasons," he said.

So...how hot, hot, hot is it really going to be Dr. Gray.. inquiring tropical minds want to know.

Hot water is just one factor, winds across the basin and steering level winds factor in too to the equation.

So... buckle up, 2008 may be a nasty hurricane season...

Only time will tell... and I'll be telling the story as time writes it.

Be well, Be happy ..Bobbi
Ps..Hot and Sunny in Miami!

April.. Less Than 2 Months Til the Start of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

And..actually, there is less time than that before small little waves begin to wiggle their way west off the Coast of Central American in the Pacific where the season starts on May 15th, 2008.

Getting closer to prime time or what most of us know is really the Pre-Season as the real season starts later in the summer when west bound waves begin rolling off of Africa.

Check out the article in the April issue of National Geographic on that region in Africa and get a better view into the world where Tropical Waves begin their journey westbound.

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/04/sahel/paul-salopek-text

Amazing article, well done, great maps.

Years ago when John Hope reigned supreme in the world of on air Tropical Updates he would often point to that little dot, little spot on the coast of Africa and remind everyone that until the Cape Verde Waves pass over the beach at Dakar the season has not really started. Those are the REAL waves, the ones high enough up to make the crossing, the mature, ripe waves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakar

Read on it... great article, great time to begin thinking on the reality of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As for me... my trip to North Carolina was a pure delight. Just smiling here. Perfect timing, perfect people, perfect beaches, perfect preview of Spring and things to come. Nice to see the season of Spring. It is highly under rated. Not talked on enough. Not sure why more people don't go on trips for Spring Viewing as they do the Autumn Colors.

And... give me a little bit as I have tons of emails to look through from hurricane friends and a few websites who are debating Category 5s and other things that go bump in the tropical night.

One thing I will say about Tropical Weather People..they are smart, the level of brain power in such arenas could cure the common cold and probably get us half way across the universe if they were looking out from our planet not down through the atmosphere into the oceans and water vapor trails that blaze their way in woven patterns around this beautiful blue planet where we live and which we call Planet Earth.

Love and kisses... from Miami,
Bobbi