Invest 90L Goes Out to Sea.. Gale System or Named Storm? Stay tuned... Anything Goes in 2017

Okay we are going to discuss the new Invest.

I should call it THE Invest as it's 1st of the season.

You may have wondered why I have been silent.

During the Hurricane Season (you know Prime Time after June 1st) I mention and wax poetic on all the possibilities of every little westbound tropical wave. I do so because there are probabilities and possibilities (she said redundantly) but no matter how wishy washy they look it is after all the Hurricane Season. March is not the Hurricane Seasons. As I said previously they can happen just like the rain in Spain, however there are certain parameters even for out of season systems. When models spit out garbage it's not right to give them the time of day. Let's say you go in your favorite restaurant and they are selling Gumbo as the "Soup of the Day" and you hate okra . . . Are you going to take it or wait for another day and another soup you like to come along? 

Really a model took it off the map and to Africa.

Actually the model took it through the Straits of Gibraltar?

What are the chances of that mathematically? 

Obviously we don't need models to know where it's going.

Out to sea.

Possibly near Bermuda.

Stay tuned.

But as what?

Arlene, the first name stormed, or a messy low pressure system?

It's March. You know how I know?

There is still snow on Mike's Weather Page ;)

Snowflakes on the white trees around the lake.

Looks a bit incongruous to talk tropics....

(wake up call Mike which way you going?)

So there IS an Invest.

The convection is shuffling off to the East.

There may or may not be some consolidation of a center.

In any language it smells the same.

Dress Rehearsal 

Dry Run (note lack of convection inside)

Both Brad and Ed are well known in the South.

People live and die by them.

Okay that's an exaggeration....

....but they trust them!

Bottom Line:

This is in fact a Gale Center.

And when the NHC says GALE...

Rarely does it get a name.

Anything's possible in 2017...

And we know where it will go...

...as there is a strong flow.

And the reason why is show below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Fronts on the move from West to East.

Draped across South Florida even still...

While it's fun to speculate...

The Real Season is still months away.

That said we should see early play.

But probably not today.

But...anything's possible.

Seriously severe weather IS possible today.

So if you live in those shaded areas watch the sky.

Keep your favorite weather source nearby...

And in a land far away, way down under.

Cyclone Debbie is one to remember.

Details still coming in...

Category 4? 

Gusts of at least 160 MPH..

.. maybe higher.

Not my basin.

But good to know models called formation.

Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Gotta wait for it........

..... like the Hurricane Season 

Arlene First Name of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. When Will It Form? Could a Rare March Storm Form? Has Happened but... time will tell......

Can Hurricanes happen in March?

It's rare but they can happen.

But hurricanes rarely happen in March.

So why are we talking about it?

Because models are showing possibilities.

So we are dancing here with possibilities ...

Current satellite images from that area today are below:

Just a long, old frontal boundary draped across the area.

Hmnnn...

A quick update going into the weekend concerning possible development of some kind... in the Atlantic. I'd give it a 45/55 chance of forming right now and when I say forming I mean "some sort of low pressure system" with tropical like weather. The first name of the season is Arlene and often early subtropical storms develop just East of the Bahamas at the end of old frontal boundaries. And often they come close, models are run and sometimes an Invest gets named and nothing happens. It's worth noting the water to the North of there is not tropical and cold air is still in charge of the party this weekend. Next week should be warmer and more tropical friendly...

A strong NE flow out of the Caribbean.

You can compare and contrast in a few days.

Is Arlene in the wings?

Yes, 100% for sure.

But will Arlene form in the Atlantic soon?

Possibly maybe.

To quote the old Magic 8 Ball..

Ask Again Later.

For now nothing is happening.

Down the road... it's a definite possibility.

Something to watch...

The official start of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1st!

Have a great weekend.

Check back later in the weekend.

To see if any purple circles pop up.

Read the previous post to read more model discussion.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Rob from www.crownweather.com...

pointed out the last March system was in 1908

1908 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

One did form near there but it went into the Carib.

Not out of the Carib...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1908/1/track.gif

Rumors Tropical Development Coming Early? What's Up in the Atlantic? Busy Tornado Season Soon & Dr. Rick Knabb Leaving NHC

So there's a lot of whispering online about possible formation of something quasi tropical in the Atlantic in the not so distant future. I don't like to fire the flames of innuendo however it obviously needs to be addressed. Yes, and no is the answer. The models show something coming together briefly and then shuffling off out to sea just as rapidly. These subtropical like features often appear this time of year or perhaps later in April but this year's March is the new April.

GFS:

Euro:

Anything that forms will shoot off to the NE.

Similar to the flow below...

A floater goes up and gets everyone's panties in a bunch..

Let me remind people the water is not that hot...

Never the less we are discussing it..

it being an anomaly and modeling.

http://dabuh.com/

What I'll say is ... 

...it's fun to have a reason to loop!

Rumors for now....

..but models show something.

Is that like where there's smoke there's fire?

In truth the region to worry on weather wise..

...is in the Tornado Zone.

You know that area that often gets blown away..

Okay for now Thunderstorms and Supercells.

But Tornado season should be nasty soon...

As for Hurricane Season the big news is BIG.

We are losing our director to TWC it seems.

Dr. Rick Knabb is leaving.

A new director has not been named.

Til then Ed Rappaport is in charge

Big news.... 

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Spring Equinox - 73 Days til Hurricane Season

Starbucks broke out the bright yellow cups for the start of Spring.

Rush right over if you need to feel the love...

Spring is officially here but the fly in the ointment is that we will continue having cold spells for the next few weeks at least. Winter took a vacation this year and reappeared in the beginning of March. Yes, we have some warm days to look forward to ... however, its not over until it's over. And everyone wants it over it seems. Remember that come August when everyone is complaining it's too darn hot!

The recent spate of wintry weather and freezing temperatures has taken a bite out of the early Spring harvest and only time will tell how the strawberries and peaches really do. And with every night that the temperature threatens to dip down below freezing the concerns continue. But in truth that's part of the way the process works. You don't really believe in true love and happy endings do you? Weather is never exactly the same and it all gets evened out when you study the climate. Climate alert: It's Spring! And it's forecast to be a wet Spring in some parts of the country. And, a little birdie told me that Severe Weather will be on the come on like cray this Spring as Mother Nature takes a walk on the wild side. Stay tuned.

As for the tropics the cold intrusions continue.

We aren't there yet...

At some point we can watch those fronts dangling in Carib.

But not until there aren't anymore behind them.

And the water needs to warm up... 

We aren't there yet.

So stay tuned and do something to celebrate Spring.

Personally I'm dreaming on the beach.

A Carolina Beach

I kind of have a thing for the low country...

and dolphins...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps If you listened to that Pawleys Island video...

...you'd hear the part about hurricanes.

What does Spring mean to you?

Snow Storm Stella Slides Towards the East Coast... Winter Blizzard Warnings for March Madness (love that name)

If you live in or near a shaded area ....

...this post is for you!!

The forecast for the snow line is shown below:

The problem with Mid March Snow Storms AKA Blizzards is they are very hard to predict in perfect detail. They are in general an odd bird and models often over amplify and meteorologists try to stay conservative and look to history for analog storms to make or explain a forecast. Add to that models can flip flop fast and vacillate between 12 inches one run and 6 inches another run while meteorologists wait for the next run to see if the favored models come together in a way that seems consistent with history and current synoptics. It's not easy to have a Monster Storm show up on models in Mid March and try to convince a large population area they might really, really, really get a huge snow storm.

2017 has been on the mild side and many are skeptical that March will usher in winter on the edge of the Spring Equinox a mere week away. Again it's a week away for a reason and often latent energy unloads in Mother Nature's attempt to realign and center herself while taking back control of Planet Earth. An example would be Hurricane Joaquin or Hurricane Matthew that were both late season hurricanes that seemed to come out of nowhere.

And remember without the energy coming up from the GOM

We wouldn't have this whole Blizzard Mess...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif

The energy wrapped up in one low...

Merges with the other low...

Incredible meterological ballet.

And as always hard to predict where the snow line sets up.

Larry Cosgrove is one of my favorite mets and he takes a wide, historic, geographic view of weather often rather than just telling you what this model said vs that model. If you live in the area under the gun please check him out on Facebook and sign up for his newsletters. There are few like him; he's a treasure.

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove/posts/10158481544290235

On a personal level let me explain it this way.

They are hard to predict and many variables.

So, shop for trouble in case you are snowed in...

And stuck unable to leave the house easily.

Better to stay safe than be sorry always.

I'm just pointing out:

if I lived in NJ, PA, DC, NY..

The mountains of WV and VA...

That general area I'd blink and prepare.

New England... you know the drill.

I don't need to hype this as it's hyped already.

www.weather.com is doing a great job of that...

Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com has an APP

You might want to check it out and download it.

Loads easy and may make your life easier ...

...especially if you are in the danger zone.

Stay warm, safe and enjoy the late achiever winter of 2017!

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps... In Raleigh we would have a huge snow storm on Sunday.

Then they back tracked to maybe snow on Sunday.

Then they took it out and penciled it in for Tuesday.

Then we had sunrise snow on Sunday.

Covered everything.

Snowed for 4 hours.

Beautiful.

Melted in less than an hour.

Sun came out and it looked a lot like Spring again.

My thought they took it out too fast.

Models are misleading this time of year.

Remember that ....

If on any of the last five days they said you would get snow..

..you most likely will get something.

The bushes  looked like they were covered in snow...

Then it melted because it's March.

Spring again.

Today it's nasty cold - feels like 34 degrees in Raleigh.

They said maybe a drop of changeover to sleet.

Maybe................

The Problem With Snow

Problem with snow is that the blooms are on the trees, leaves are on the trees and some produce has begun to grow in Farmer John's garden. A heavy snow can weigh down those blooming Cherry Blossoms and damage the trees in randomly odd ways depending on the size of the tree. A lot of "it depends" sort of intangibles today and that happens in years when Mother Nature tries to wrestle back control late in the season.

So today's post is more a tease than a long read. Putting it up here to see how it compares with tomorrow's forecast.

I'm wearing thin Luluroe Spring like leggings today with a short sleeve shirt. Getting hard to decide what to wear as it's cold in the morning and 75 in the afternoon with a forecast of snow for Sunday.

And want to add in one more thing.

Has Tecumseh come back to life?

I guess if he was a character on GH he could.

Second big storm threat in the same region.

Again August Total Eclipse tracks over the same area.

Are these things connected?

Who knows.

Just seems kind of curious....

Stay tuned to see who gets snow this weekend.

As the storm moves a bit to the East...

...we will have a better idea.

Models will improve.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps.... you thought I was going to play Jimmy Buffett?

Or Total Eclipse of the Heart?