A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, August 31, 2007
TD6 Forms In the Caribbean
Tropical Depression SIX forms in the Caribbean as predicted and previously announced by NHC. Their discussion compliments the TD's form and it should be a TS by tomorrow. Officially they have it as a Hurricane by Tuesday but I think they are lowballing it a bit on the intensity level.. and timing.
Either it has good conditions for intensifying or it doesn't for the next few days. If so.. I would think it would be a hurricane by Sunday. Not a Cat 5 one, just a hurricane. I think there is a lot of shear there and some tendency to bend the track a bit to the right just after the islands. I don't see anything that would stop it from crashing into Belize or the Yucatan but you never know. Just because a system starts low does not mean it can not pull north. No models show that at this time and for our sake... that would be fine but keep watching. It's early still and the next model runs will have the new info from Recon to factor in and watch carefully.
Will check back in later after shabbos. As my friend said so well, "another shabbos storm for you to watch" lol... yep. Food smells great and I am resting, really going to rest and watch and read and see where we are in 24 hours.
That's all for now.. Bobbi 90 degrees in Miami http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1963/FLORA/track.gif a storm with a history we hopefully won't see again anytime soon.. took a real bite out of the Caribbean countries, caused so much damage before catching a cold front out to sea but showing track because... good to study and remember history!
Tropical Depression or Felix maybe...depending on what recon finds.
It looks good. Developed nicely overnight and would imagine the NHC will upgrade shortly.
Will be back later with more info.. but just giving a heads up and hi there to everyone!
Warm in Miami.. high in place, things going westbound under the big, bad high!
Listening to Shakira and making shabbos :)
Look towards a weekend of tracking and people remembering the Labor Day Storm of 35. Reading a book on that one this shabbos.. hope to finish it and digest it and give my thoughts. Good book. Hemingways Hurricane.
Psing here... didn't realize a Tropical Statement was issued... so adding it in..
making it pretty official..
000 WONT41 KNHC 311310 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 910 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Great link from Chris on Hurricane City at the message board. Best view to see down into the center or centers of the wave in the far atlantic that may or may not become Felix in a few days.
And... if you really want to see hurricane coverage and some history as it was made check out hurricane city TODAY.. NOW and watch Jim's show on Katrina. As someone on it said.. I didn't get to see too much back then and when I did well.. we had no power, things were messy... I was distracted but now.. can really watch.
As Jim said to a caller upset he hadn't heard form his friend in Miami... "a lot of power problems" prevented me from watching and listening to Jim do his incredible webcast when Katrina made landfall. Listening to Jim you will see why he is such an expert and how well he knows hurricanes. He's insistent that this will be a bad problem for New Orleans even when the storm is not making landfall there, he spots the strong rain in the bands that probably did the levees in and when the local media slaps eachother on the back with how lucky they are in New Orleans and how they "missed the bullet" he is very upset that they would talk so prematurely, sure that sadly there will be many problems with the levee..
Watching history, in detail.. after the fact knowing what really happening. Amazing, compelling and educational.
No network had anything any better.. so true.
Watch: www.hurricanecity.com follow the prompts to watch the show he is showing for free on Katrina. Get on and watch soon or it will be gone. Unless you are a paid subscriber which.. you might want to throw him some money as my brother Jay says.. because he really deserves it.
later.. keep watching the wave in the far atlantic..
So..the area off of the Carolinas has bloomed all day and looks quite organized suddenly. It's also supposed to float around for a few days, moving south.. then who knows. Keep watching.
QuikScat.. shows a circulation. Oh look.. we are using quikscat to check on a system CLOSE IN to the US Coastline.
As for the other system in the Atlantic, it looks a lot like the last one. Sort of like a baby elephant with a big western trunk and two little horns, elegoat! lol
Be back later. Back to weather posts lol rolling eyes.
Seems the slow moving wave in the Atlantic about half way from down there to over there is expected to slowly develop and move into more favorable conditions and might soon warrant a hurricane hunter aircraft to take a field trip out into the Atlantic to see what if anything is going on with this wave.
The area of showers off the Carolina coastline is drifting south and could begin to build up a lower level circulation, has happened before but we'll have to keep watching to see what happens.
Otherwise.. it's hot in Miami. Not a lot of rain either.
As for my own blonde moment this morning.. I kept trying to check my work email from the house and it wouldn't sign me on... I know I need real Starbucks coffee and I am still half asleep but .. would help if I would get the name right. I kept typing in:
bobbi.storm over and over................uhhhhh it's not my name, duh....... took me the longest time to figure out what was wrong lol
Yesterday in communication with a very nice lady in Key West about the Synagogue Bnai Zion there... she referred to me as Ms. Storm. Usually, only my hurricane buddies do that. I am wondering what it cost to change a name, think at this point it would be easier ;)
hey, at least i got the password right going to take a shower pray i wake up by the time i get to miami beach or ill need a cuban coffee to do the job, cafecito haha. l8tr
Watch the Wave.. you are all officially on WAVE WATCH!
Woke up early this morning to watch the eclipse and realized something that I suppose I knew deep down but never really realized. Eclipses do that they say...astrologically speaking...shed light on hidden matters.
When I was a little girl, one year late at night, somewhere in the deep of winter a boy named Mike France and I stayed up all night in his front yard to watch a lunar eclipse through the lens of his brand new telescope. I want to say it was December or January, a Christmas present or maybe a birthday present as I think we were both Capricorns.
He had just gotten a real telescope on a little tripod and we decided to stay up all night and watch the moon disappear, which it did more often between floating clouds than not...but we were determined to watch the whole eclipse. His father sat up with us a while and then my mother sent my father across the street to sit up with us.. My mother being a good southern mom didn't think it was proper for a young girl of any age to lie on the grass all night huddled under a blanket with a young boy watching the moon. Whether she was worried on improprieties we were too young to dwell on or a voodoo queen coming out at midnight my father was forced to stand around trying to make meaningful conversation with Mike's father til my father muttered some partial curse word and announced he was going to bed and walked back across the street to leave us there fiddling with the telescope and waiting for the eclipse to peek out from behind the tall cumulus clouds. My father was a cityboy from New York and most New York City boys know nothing bout watching eclipses; trust me as I was later to learn in life.
But, Mike and I watched the moon, played with the telescope and felt like we were explorers or scientists sharing this mystical lunar event through a real telescope, not a pair of binoculars or just our naked eyes. It seemed very important, very grand, very big and mature even if we were only seven or eith or at the most Nine.
Mike and I shared hurricanes, learned morse code together and once tried to dig a tunnel to his best friend Jimmy's house to run wire so they could talk all night sos style, dot, dash, dot dot dash. Well, Mikes father was a lineman for the telephone company. It made sense when we were seven as the 3 of us worked all summer until someone discovered us in the backyard digging and well... That project was over real fast before we got halfway to China or Timmy and Jimmy's house. We used the leftover wire we had hidden away to make key chains lanyard style in lots of intertwining rainbow colors.
I think Mike was my first Capricorn "boyfriend." Smart, scientific and a very bad allergy to bees.
We moved away suddenly around the time I developed breasts and a killer shape and my youngest brother was born to a less redneck neighborhood, across the road, down the block, around the corner to a neighborhood closer to the Synagogue where there were more Jewish boys to date who had more proper sounding names like David and Joseph and less tree trimming parties in December where I would toss silver icicles towards the ceiling which would land onto green fir trees waiting for their finishing touches after we put on the ornaments. Mike and I lost touch in Jr. High, but occaisionally ran into each other here and there in the hallway while we rain in different circles and different classes. He took honors science, I took honors english. A nice boy, a nice young man who died way too young from a severe reaction to bee stings. Really. Things like that really happen, not just in the movies but in real life where art imitates life and life imitates art. It was sad. One of my friends told me about it and it always seemed unreal, how could little Mike never grow up to be big Mike, how could he die from a bee bite? So sad. Well, you know what they say... shit happens and people die and no life is not fair. Sort of sucks. Staring, what can I say. Always felt bad for his family, nice people, nice front porch, nice memories of a nice boy who played a big part in my very young life.
I run in different circles now and I'm all grown up. I know lots of nice men but rarely do I ever meet a guy who wants to sit up at night and watch an eclipse. City boys who are nice but boring who can't imagine sitting in a back yard swatting at flies and mosquitoes to play peek a boo with the moon. And, I wonder often on life how hard it is to find a guy who will enjoy the simple things in life with me like the guys out on Bird Road who went fishing for catfish or stayed up and watched the moon or waited for the holidays or made ice cream in an ice cream machine for backyard parties... tutti frutti flavored.
Lost between two cultures... Jewish and Redneck, old Florida and big city, the Mikes of the past and the Mike's of the present.
I was out with a boyfriend one night a few years back and stopped in the parking lot to watch part of an eclipse, his response was it was hot and he wanted to get into air conditioning and he wanted to know what the big deal was about an eclipse, happens often enough, every few months somewhere on the Planet. Statistically true, logical. I stared. He didn't understand. Very nice man but no interest in the mysteries of the universe that seem neither mystical nor interesting. A few months later I went out for a midnight snack with a good guy friend who had just gotten into town and was hungry and wanted to talk a bit. We parked by Collins Avenue and as we walked into Bisseleh restaurant I asked him if he wanted to wait a few minutes watch the eclipse over the ocean (I had been watching from my porch earlier) and he said "Nah, I'm old.. I've seen lots of them, let's get something to eat" and I shook my head and wondered on how hard it is to find a guy to watch an eclipse with in life....and why it seemed so important to me.
Why?
I never could figure out why sharing an eclipse or a full moon was such a big deal to me but tonight as I watched the light of the full moon disappear into a sort of dusty reddish rose color as it played peek a boo with a tall cumulus cloud at the height of the eclipse...and disapeered for the last time before it became too light to watch the moon I realized I guess a part of me is still looking for Mike or a guy just like him or one of the gang of guys I grew up with out on Bird Road.
I mean there I was a little girl with a little guy friend doing what came naturally to me, sitting on a porch watching the stars come out, climbing trees, waiting for him to come back from catching cat fish in the canal or playing Khory League Softball or learning to pitch a good softball with his many cousins that lived nearby. A part of me wants to be that little girl again or at least find a guy like that again yet I no longer live in that world.
Sort of feel like an alien or stranger in a foreign land. Miami of today is no longer Miami of the past where all the boys were called Jimmy or Timmy or Billy or Bobby ... they have all moved to Georgia or North Carolina or up near Ocala.
Life goes on.. but at least I understand myself a little bit better and somewhere, sometime when the time is right things will work out. My life is good, my youngest son watched for a while with me tonight before disapeering into the house to take a shower and get ready for school.
I stood there and watched as I lost the eclipse behind that big tall cloud just at moon set, shortly after I watched it go into totality. I turned to my east and realized that it was twilight, that beautiful blue color I love so much just before the sunrises and a star appeared in the sky, not a star but Venus and like a small child I smiled and said, "Starbright, starlight, the first star I see tonight, I wish I may, I wish I might have the dream I wish tonight" and I wished for a boy like Mike who liked to watch eclipses and full moons and who liked to watch me :) ... and isn't allergic to bees :(
A real insight into my heart, a total eclipse of my heart.
Okay so there is a lunar eclipse going on and there is NO tropical development anywhere so I am going ummm give my thoughts on the map question.
Would you believe I really do understand what she is talking about and more so... anyone on camera or on a strange IM can tell you that..sometimes words just don't come out the way you meant them to..
Especially when you are bright and this girl is bright, smart...3.5 grade point average and keeps up her athletic activities, bright, blonde, beautiful and I would bet she knew what she wanted to say but her mind was working so fast she couldn't put it all into words.
Let me... say this about that... Most Americans don't have maps.
I have them.. all over. Hurricane Maps, Maps of Key West, Maps.. I mean to quote someone quoting me a while back "I like maps" but most people don't. I even have maps on my checks. I've even been to MapFair in Miami. You know most Americans don't have those old fashioned big world maps that you use in grade school or high school where the teacher points with the stick. No.... they don't. The world looks funny on mapquest, sort of like it did before Columbus.
Americans know how to mapquest but that's just this little box on a page like the blog here... like an IM. They can barely pick out America on a big world map without squinting hard and looking constipated ...trust me they couldn't find Bolivia or Bosnia easily.
Now.. America is that country in the middle... it has a big palm tree in the upper part that is painted in blue and is called the Great Lakes. Hey.. I'm from Florida and to me it looks like a palm tree.
So.......although we all know we live in America... can the average kid in school find it easily on a spinning globe if the globe had no letters or words from just the shape? You know without boundaries or border for Canada or Mexico.
Cuba.. there's an island easy to find. America, by the way..is just north of Cuba yet we went all the way across the world (spin the globe) to Iraq to rid a country of a dictator. See.. my point. Obviously, GW does not know geography nor does he know where Cuba is or he could have saved a whole lot of money and liberated Cuba from a dictator.
Duh!
She's beautiful, smart, bright and so she had a senior moment before her time. I do know what she meant. She probably thinks real fast like I do and sometimes, you know.. y'all just can't keep up!
I bet my hurricane friends can tell where America is... north of Cuba :) top left hand corner of the hurricane map!
How would you like to be on camera all the time, someone watching every little thing you do, words you say, things you write... hmmmnnnn ???
It's a new world. A youtube world.
Someone should give her a modeling contract. Maybe a job at a local news station and teach her how to be a morning weather girl. Just be sure to tell her NOT to stand in front of the Category 5 hurricane or a wave rolling off Africa while talking because there are a whole lot of weather girls and guys paid a fortune to show us the wave the whole time standing in front of the wave. I always wonder on that...
As for me... seems I didn't know where Ottawa was the other day. Boy, do I feel silly. I thought it was further west where they film Smallville. You see, you thought Smallville was in the middle of the USA.. wrong... they film it way up in Canada because it's cheaper. Look at those pine trees in the background next time you watch an episode... you thought that was Kansas? Think again?
You making fun of Miss South Carolina?
Right..rolling eyes... pine tree forests in Smallville ???
Sitting on Miami Beach sipping a Tall Verona from Starbucks and thinking on how impossible it is almost to believe that fifteen years ago I was afraid Miami Beach would be wiped off the map forever. The night before I drove around with my ex-husband thinking we'd never see the bag lady on the corner by the gas station on Collins or the beautiful art deco revivals again.
I was wrong. Miami Beach survived, battered and torn apart but luckily for tourism all the photographers were in Homestead and not documenting the Trashing of Miami Beach. Ficus trees ripped out of the ground, all the signage from 41st Street blown to smithereens, EVERY light signal down, poles down, a friend on Flamingo Drive had her neighbors roof land in her pool. Miami Beach was a mess and yet.. it's beautiful now.
So is my beautiful 15 year old daughter who started school today at the Academy in the 10th grade. That night she lay underneath me, a baby about 7 months old as I felt the house shake and I nursed her off and on through the storm hoping if the roof caved in my body would protect her somewhat. I prayed a lot. And, part of me will never forget the awesome amazing sound of the surf pounding on the beach a few blocks away from where I lived. Wild night, wild storm... unreal. The beach the day before was wild too, took Miriam with me who was 5 who played and made airplane noises as she ran up and down the boardwalk while Sharon and I watched the waves and wondered.
So much for looking back. An old boyfriend of mine told me never to look back and he is right. Don't rethink the past and your decisions, remember them if you can and move on...
Feels like rain today on Miami Beach.. some shower somewhere moving inland, on an otherwise quiet morning in Paradise.
Bobbi.. 15 years later after Andrew changed my world.
Not a lot going on in the tropics as everything tries to normalize itself and so... watch those loops, read up on hurricane preparedness and pray for those being devastated by floods in the midwest and those affected in Mexico from Dean.
Really looking forward to shabbos this week. Need the rest and my oldest is in for shabbos and making the yellow rice thing and oh I don't know. It's too hot to think in Miami and am thinking on the High Holy Days and where I will be and all that jewish jazz.
Nite everyone. Stay safe, be well, be happy and may you be blessed with love,
Quick update on the daring Dean who is about to make landfall on the Mexican coast for a 2nd time. Luckily, he only has 100 mphs winds right now and is 60 or so short of his last landfall.
Something about a Category Five hurricane that brings out every cliche across the media net. "Yet to write the last chapter" "Next chapter" "Second Coming" "Sequel" etc.. heard more cliches this morning on the weather than I have in ages. A category five is just so real, so big... somehow you can't argue a hurricane doesn't have a personality when it is an entity this large.
Dean is the 1st Category 5 Hurricane to actually make landfall as a Category 5 as so many lose five miles per hour or ten just prior to landfall.
2007 starts off in a big way, what next?
What next indeed. So.. great picture there, looks like Dean is playing Cat's Cradle.. cradled in the Bay of Campeche in some protective cocoon like state. At 7 they weren't expecting rapid intensification, at 11 he is back up to 100mph.
As for the Bahama Blob.. it looks like a frontal boundary suddenly and nothing more. Hope not.. need a quiet weekend w/o worrying on hurricane supplies. Should be quiet until the Atlantic gets going again with the new wave off of Africa or one of the next ones. Nice storms coming off the coast of South America this morning.
So... since it is slow I just wanted to make a little note here I'm tired, been a long few weeks for me personally and I do not need added stress in my life of the Hollywood kind so... Hello Hollywood, Goodbye Hollywood, please I am not in the mood to be a muse and not amused. I want NORMAL. I want love. I want a life. I want sunrise and sunset with someone by my side, holding me tight, staring up at the big full moon. I retired. Go away, be well, be happy, be healthy, be passionate about everything you do but.. no, no, no... say it ain't so and just hop along cassidy, yall hear now..
Nice song, stuck in my mind, love it, Play It Again Sam, enjoy the music..
Showing a Dvorak image here... shows how intense Dean still is as it moves across the Yucatan.
Amazing intense hurricane! Made landfall as one of the strongest category five's to ever make landfall (I believe the 10th strongest) and kind enough to do it in an area that has a smaller population than many of the larger cities it could have hit.
Most amazingly is that it is STILL a Category 2 and is predicted to be a category one hurricane when it makes seafall in the Bay of Campeche. Good luck on finding another soft spot for it to make a second landfall.
Beautifully, scary storm that wanted to go west and did... and aren't we all up here in Florida pleased as planters punch!
I was in Key West yesterday with a few of my daughters, son and son-in-law for more post bar mitzvah partying. Nice kosher restaurant on Petronia between Whitehead and Duval, great tuna salad in a pita! Meat place, good food! So.. watched the storm on ye olde cellphone... enjoyed the strong breeze, very balmy weather and am back at work in Miami now. Pic below of me.. in the pool at Tom's in Key West. Someone said someone somewhere in high hurricane circles wanted to see my legs so... smiling.. there's Mermaid Bobbi in Key West ;) below........
As for the next one.. I'd look out a ways towards 10/47 or.. see if around Thursday some system pops up ne of Puerto Rico somewhere, the environment is a bit messy still from the outflow of Dean.
Lastly, check out those floods in Oklahoma from the remnants of Erin.
More later.. salient part of the last advisory on Dean
"DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE"
Yeah yeah.. two songs for you this morning.. Mexico for Dean and Time Will Tell for Felix.
NRL (navy site) has an invest on the area soon to ..maybe.. form.
Could this be Felix's sonogram? Stay tuned.
Biggest question is which part forms, will the north part form or the south part.. that tells the story to some degree as it is all a matter of degrees.
Dean Plows West... Look to the Top Right At New Worry
So... as Dean plows west if you can draw your eye away from her beautiful image.. you will see a blob of problems in the top right hand corner of this picture. Perhaps this is what the Canadian Model has been obsessing on? Seems so according to many of my friends. Big, round, mass of color... and supposedly once Dean moves out, it gets it's act together. Dean is plowing through the Carib over 20mph so... I'd keep my eye on it sooner rather than later.
Watch the GFDL and if it suddenly picks up on this feature. Buy Water!
Models are like cards in a deck, you have to play with them, rearrange them and sometimes pick your best card to work with... GFDL is consistently that one, but I am a bit partial to the Canadian even if it "spins up hurricanes in the bathtub" lol.
Going to work, breezy and warm in Miami. Hot. Warm. Humid. Hurricane out there somewhere trying to become a Category FIVE today... keep watching the drama unfold.
Last thought on Dean, got quite a butt on him doesn't he? He continues to be bottom heavy.
Been an amazing night. Dean slides along under Jamaica... almost touching, barely touching... will see what the final obs and post game analysis shows. Listened to Jim all day and heard people calling in from Jamaica, on news radio, etc.
Why listen to Jim? I'll give you an example. When Fox was live talking about the storm, showing the same 10 seconds of footage over and over the news anchor said they weren't sure if Jamaica was still able to broadcast TV or Radio and they might be under a complete blackout now.. meanwhile Jim was streaming live as we were listening to Radio out of Jamaica with people calling in and Mets giving real time forecasts for the Jamaica area. When CNN and TWC was saying "Dean is sliding past the southern coast of Jamaica" Jim was naming neighborhoods, small towns and giving exact data to people listening who had family there. CNN wasn't sure radio stations were broadcasting but Jim was broadcasting the stations that were still working...
Amazing.
So..that's it. The kids had a blast at the Paintball Party while I sat home with Jim and Dean and Jay my brother in Greece online and TWC on and talking to friends. Life in the fast lane. And a new Doobie Brothers CD from my on and off guy friend too!
So... keep watching Dean, listening to Jim, watch The Weather Channel and keep an eye on the tropics because in a few days when Dean is gone, a new system may pop up and threaten Florida. Or maybe it won't. Time will tell lol haha. Sorry, nite for now. Bobbi Let us pray Jamaica came through without a high death toll and let's hope Dean was kind. Nite
Live Coverage of Hurricane Dean - Fascinating Link
Fascinating live coverage of Hurricane Dean on Hurricane City. Live. Real. Best reality TV you will get anywhere today compared to incessantly, repetitive canned coverage on TWC. Live phone in reports from people in the path of the storm. You can hear the wind. Ham coverage, sat coverage, amazing job the Amazing Jim Williams is doing. You can watch him watch the storm like a fly on the wall. http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm
Dean Heads Towards Jamaica, a Wobble Left of Right Tells the Ending
Why do I have Andrew's path here? To prove a point. What looks smooth can be deceiving. What looked like a beeline path for Miami was actually a not so smooth path that contained a wobble south.
Read on..and bare with me I am just waking up from a long, long weekend.
First off.. the NHC has done a beautiful job with this storm as Dean continues westish towards Jamaica, with much discussion as to where his final US/Mexican Landfall will be.
West.. west-northwest, west.. west-northwest... it is movement but it's all a matter of degrees on how far and how long a wobble lasts.
Most beautiful loop I have seen in ages: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_04L/webManager/last24hrs.gif
Understand a Cat 4 storm that has multiple eye walls with the whole eye wall replacement cycle thing going has temporary variations in degrees of latitude. It's all about how far north or west this storm gets and what it does just as it approaches Jamaica that tells the final chapter in this drama of Part 1 of Hurricane Dean which will be remembered as one of the meanest hurricanes of the 2007 Season.
Andrew hit Homestead Florida which is a suburb basically of the Metropolitan Miami Area all because of a wobble. One wobble south, just off shore made all the difference in the world to the downtown Miami area. A gigantic storm on satellite the inner core was a very tight, compact storm (much like Dean) and the smallest wobble made the difference between Homestead to the South suffering what looked like a nuclear blast attack and Miami Beach dealing with Category Two Hurricane winds was all the difference in the world. A wobble to the north would have smashed Andrew onto the Hollywood Florida boardwalk, beachfront area and .... no wobble would have taken that nuclear devastation sort of feeling into the downtown Miami area and ripped at Flagler Street the way the 1926 Hurricane did.
Bottom Line... a wobble.
And, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are prime time for wobbles as the eye replacement wall cycle goes up and down and the track over time looks straight and beautiful but within that beeline beautiful track are wobbles that last six hours or more.
So...wobble right... the storm goes north, wobble left..the storm goes south. No wobble and the storm goes right over Kingston.
That is about as simple and brutal as it gets. Much like watching some kicker about to kick the ball at the end of a long, exhausting, battle on the gridiron between two long term rival teams and a matter of inches means the ball goes through the uprights, goes wide, goes right, goes left, or bizarrely hits the uprights and bounces in or out. A matter of inches, meters, degrees. Someone wins, someone loses, it doesn't seem fair but it happens. It's life. On the gridiron, on the island of Jamaica.
All in all the NHC is doing a fantastic job. But, in the end it will be a matter of degrees of wobbles. See here the picture of Andrew's path.. you don't see the wobbles from this angle but on the ground in Homestead vs North Miami... it made all the difference in the world.
Personally... my youngest son was bar mitzvahed this shabbos in a beautiful service in Miami at Young Israel and it was beautiful. The kids were mostly all here, their friends were mostly all here. The whole extended Meyer-Schwartz family celebrated and considering on facebook it says there are over 60 fans/members of the family... a lot of them were there. Zalmy did a beautiful job, zoom zoom Zalmy zoomed his way into the adult world of Judaism and into the teen years. He and his friends and family are going to be celebrating with a big Paint Ball Shooting Party which he chose over sit down, fancy party in some ball room. The gun dealer son is picking up part of the tab ;) (they are government contracts, really, legal) and... well.. I'm gonna stay home, watch pre-season football games and stare at Dean. So... it's been a long, beautiful, tiring weekend and I have hardly had a chance to follow the details of the storm but... when I finally wake up from yesterday/last night's party here.. I'll be here, where all the action is..
And, lastly I realize that I no longer do email.. I do hurricanecity. I check there before I check email. Publishers Clearing House could be calling, Classmates wants me to know that five of my friends have joined, frumster or some dating service wants me to check in for messages and I am blind to the world as I check in with the crowd at HurrCity.
If someone needs me.. just join Hurricane City, register with a name and password and post me a message at the top of the screen... cause it is now obvious if I have 1 minute left before the world blows up into smithereens I will be checking the board at hurricane city ;)
Yup. Info from the recon plane verifies he is a Cat 3.. you can all wait til 2 but unless Avila is still on and refuses to deny reality.. Dean is a Cat 3 Storm. Real reason for this post is all the good models have pulled to right/north just a bit. GFDL and UKMET... and am very confident in my prediction that with luck Dean will just pull north of Jamaica. Looks to me like north of west, but time will tell .... time will tell but Recon tells the truth. Cat 3. And...look at that north band on Dean, it is so far north right now it has filled in the whole high all the way to the old ULL and the high behind it has a moist white spot. Dean has slowed down to 21.. will slow a bit more, intensify and pull more wnw and watch the mid part of the country to see the developing story being written. Be back later.. Bobbi Ps.. look at this image and connect the dots all the way to Texas!
Dean Heads Into the Banana Wind, Cat 2 on way to Cat 4?
Dean goes cruising in the Caribbean, cruising and exploding as I type as it rushes into the Banana Wind and the land of Jamaica.
I just looked at an IR loop of Dean, just as he pulls dead center over the islands he turns dark, juicy red in the center and begins to feel the warm, very warm bathtub hot waters of the Caribbean. He is set to become a Category 4 by most estimates though we aren't sure the HWRF wasn't on expresso yesterday when it predicated Cat 5. Only Time Will Tell.......... Motto of any real tracker but time comes fast to a Hurricane cruising at top speeds of 24 mph forward speed.
The Ukmet pulls Dean temporarily to the right of forecasted track looking like it wants to do Port Au Prince and then changes his mind and swings more to the right again just sparing Jamaica. If the UKMET makes a Jamaica Mistaka... it won't be pretty for Jamaica. Most tracks have it going over or just below. The GFDL then picks up a more right side bias and pulls Dean further to the east in Texas than most other models. Then again the GFDL is supposed to be the Prince of Models right? King? We'll see.
Again.. only time will tell...
So.... I leave you with these two great links to models http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=04 http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2007/clark4latest.png (wonderful Clark)
And... watch the loops... watch your favorite weather person (wish i had a link to Neil Frank covering this one in Houston) and pick your product and forecast because unless I am mistaken... Jamaica takes it dead on. IF I AM RIGHT... Dean goes to the north barely...
Personally, I have a lot going on so I will check back later but won't be around most of the day. My son Zalmy is having his Bar Mitzvah this weekend and I have various members of the family in from Brooklyn, Postville and elsewhere. Nice to have Shuky here during the hurricane season, my son Shuky reads a sat loop as good as any professional. Daughter Dina is darn good too. Not a weekend I need to deal with a tropical event in Florida. So... busy, happy having family in, happy to miss a Cat 4 and having chicken and yellow rice for dinner here and a buffett for 30, 40 or more tomorrow. A lot of Israeli Salads, Fake Crab Seafood Salad, Vegetable salads, deli, two crock pots full of cholent.. and then there is the after party Saturday night, Paintball Party weather permitting Sunday and something about Key West on Monday ;) (wipe that silly grin off your face Bobbi) lol. Oh Lord... what was I thinking having so many Leos. Zalmy was born during one of the strongest thunderstorms of the summer of 1994 in Mt. Sinai Hospital with the storm hovering over the east side of Biscayne Bay and the delivery room. It poured at his Bris. Can we miss tropical weather on his Bar Mitzvah? Only time will tell.......
Love you all and to the gang in the Weather Chat from HURRCITY... you're the best. As for Jim... best, best, best guy around. Really, what he attempts, achieves and puts up with on Hurricane City the man deserves an award, one of the greatest guys I know or have known ever. Great smile too. So...stay tuned, hang out at the City, watch the loops and listen to some great music while doing so. Have a beautiful weekend. IF you have a copy of Banana Wind somewhere... pop it in the CD, download to itube or to your iphone or ipod and use it as a musical soundtrack.
Beautiful view my son sent me of his developing eye which looks like it's developing cells in the eye wall. Looks a lot stronger than they have him down at... but soon the recon will know for sure..
had a wild rain storm on miami beach today.. straighten your hair and believe in high dry weather and you get soaked on lincoln road. so much water the streets flooded and sewers bubbled ;(
So.. waiting to see if any other models break with the pack but I still say... compare these two and that upper level low is force to be reckoned with AND.. moisture from erin is feeding around, enhancing it and there will be moisture digging down around the ULL. Yes.. the high might want to move west but it's got some battle with that ULL.
Of course, Dean will build his own high above him. I think he will be a major by tonight. No joke.. really, late tonight.. watch out Islands.. Dean is coming through.
Compare 12 hours ago http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/previous/sat_wv_east-12.html
Compare now... that's one very defined ULL where the high is supposed to build in.. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east.html
A little wet for the wear down here but I'd worry if another model breaks from the pack cause I say Dean stays to right of forecasted path.
Waiting on plane data.. and drying off...Bobbi
So... like when is this high pressure going to dig in?
This short little post is here to say two things, maybe three but that's for me and someone else to know.
1 The NHC doesn't like to upgrade an Atlantic storm to hurricane without good Recon but.... the EYE tells the story. An eye pops out a bit above 75mph winds so if you see an eye... it's probably a hurricane. Dean is.. Dean probably was earlier but when that pinpoint of red turned bigger... was a done deal for Dean.
2 NWS has been consistent with their building in of a ridge over Florida this weekend and as much as I do believe Dean will stay on right side of forecasted path I think Miami is probably safe from being destroyed by a Cat 4 hurricane at least with Dean. But... although we are breathing easier we ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS. I will quote Bill Kamal (who was a voice of clarity in Florida) you NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON A HURRICANE TO THE SOUTH OF YOU. And... even though the high looks to build in, the upper level low might fill and Dean picks the one weekend a front is not moving down from the Midwest... we are not out of the woods and Dean is still far, far away. A lot can happen.
3 While the i may tell the story. Recon will write the manual.
Will be back later. Got to do the commute... nope, i don't forget :) wish i could...
Watch that trough STILL DIGGING.. down, down.. new upper level low is going to form but where exactly and which way will it go. ULL by PR raced off ..bounced up like a seesaw on the other side of the intense flow from the trough. Then again look at the moisture coming up off of South America being pulled by the upper level low going north on the east side of the digging trough. Will that open up a door for Dean to start going more wnw or snap shut? And, in a few hours when the next batch of intense rain comes off of SA will it funnel more or what?
The next 12 hours should say a lot and as soon as we get RECON in we can get good data back from the models that is more reliable.
Garbage in.. garbage out until RECON fixes center and gets the details right.
Devil is in the details and we need some details on Dean.
Back later... unreal beautiful.
As for hackers ..evil dogs attacking Jim's site... hope they get to experience a Cat 5 up close and personal somewhere without the proper information. I'm sure they will enjoy it so.. what can I say except if I knew where FIDO was hiding I'd tell him to SIT and be a good little doggie.
Bobbi. Ps.. I think it's gonna start going wnw sooner rather than later. Keep watching.. see u l8tr
He looks really tired. I mean you would too if you had traveled that much space geographically as he has and he is traveling through really dry air.
Models continue to intensify Dean and move him west generally towards the Carib.
So... we are just going to wait and watch. Watch and wait?
More model runs, more loops and more watching.
This is the long of it, that part when storms travel through the middle of the Atlantic and look like they will fall apart or do funky things.
Truth is..... it's the ones that stay small, weak, struggle and fight that you have to worry on the most. The ones that spin off Africa like a Tropical Storm and intensify fast go off safely to sea in recurvature rendezvous also known as Fish Storms. This isn't a fish. It's red meat... and when it gets its act together it will most likely draw blood in some poor town in the Antilles or the Virgin Islands.
So... keep watching. I'm going to rest a bit and watch Jim Cantore play in the waves kicked up from Flossie.
Keep watching. And, wouldn't hurt to buy some water, check your supplies, get your medicine refilled and things like that now before there is some general panic come Sunday in your neck of the hurricane woods. If not Dean, the one after Dean, if not the one in the Gulf.. the next one. And, I am saying this because truth be told I don't have any water and haven't looked through my hurricane supplies in the last year because things were so slow last year it wasn't an issue. Though .. after this weekend I will have a whole bunch of empty Publix Soda bottles just in time to wash and fill.
Nite everyone... take care and talk tomorrow.
Oh...and by the way i liked the 5pm discussion. It was excellent. Should always talk about water temps and various important details like that, really good discussion. Shhhh going to bed. Really. Besos Bobbi!
Okay, this will be a short post this morning. I waited til the official upgrade to post.
As I said yesterday, the storm is staying on the left side of the forecasted track (SOUTH) and it is moving FASTER than previously predicted and they have now put it at 23mph forward speed.
There is a doorway for it to recurve or pull more to the right/north in the Atlantic but that door which is an upper level low is almost due north of it right now. If it would be going slower it would easier to catch that doorway.
My worry.. if it moves so fast and the upper level low forms near puerto rico that will draw Dean further west into the Carib and Florida and the SE coast is more under the gun.
If you go to www.wunderground.com what you will see is a map of the United States. See the cold front draped across the deep south (alabama/miss/joja)? See the other one above it that caused wild weather last night in Minnesotta? There is no way those fronts will not keep coming and pull on Dean eventually. But... any recurvature I fear will be too late for Fla/SE Coast.
Of course unless it just keeps going west.. but then there is the next storm forming in the Gulf right now.
A very messy mix of models.
Posting two below FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY... as they are still far out.
One shows..poor, poor, Puerto Rico being feasted on by a Major Killer Dean... hopefully that will change in future model runs.
The other is the earlier GFS run that probably made the NHC and a lot of people in Miami blink.. shows a direct hit on south florida, give or take which city.
More models will show more possible tracks until there is some concensus they can agree with...
My guess which is really early on and not trusting in too much would be it will affect Puerto Rico in some way and maybe if it feels a wnw tug.. scrap across the top half of Haiti... that front is there and I would like to convince myself it will go south of Hispanola and through the islands but... doubt it. Would be wishful thinking and I am not a wishcaster..
it's hard to see it but under that storm would be poor poor puerto rico http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126l
#1 He is moving way too fast west and being propelled by a strong high that is partially shearing the storms away from the center as well as keeping him on the fast track for the islands.
#2 The models have begun to break from the pack and argue with each other as to how much of a northerly component and when he will feel it. I figure pasta on Tuesday, Wednesday will be spaghetti models and going into the weekend we may need alka seltzer. Not to be too surprised, a few models still weren't speaking to it yesterday. Give them a few days and some good input from info obtained in RECON and we will have a better idea.
#3 That said... anyone here remember back on 8/7 when the GFS was calling for a hit on South Florida on the anniversary of Andrew? Next day it did a sequel to Hugo and then the Canadian came back with a hit on South Florida and straight into the Gulf. I think those models did a good job of calling our first Cape Verde storm of the season. Sometimes first impressions mean a lot.
#4 If the models are not taking into account his fast speed west then they will do a bad job on track and intensity.
#5 I haven't been in love with this storm. It has been a little messy in organization and though there seems to be banding the color pulsates up and down too much. An amazing hurricane tracker/person... specialist taught me years back that the way the storm starts out is often how it fills in later. The shape, the size, the pocket, etc and this one has been a bit bottom heavy.
#6 I still think it's bottom heavy because there is too much damn dust in the atmosphere still. The farther west it gets the less dust and the warmer the water. It will or can explode in a day or two.. say 2 days out. Going into Friday we will be grabbing for advil, alka seltzer and a bottle of Captain Morgan.
Bobbi's Bottom Line.
There may be a small weakness in the high. TD4/Dean probably will begin to go wnw and it all depends on how far west it gets when it feels the weakness. If the storm stays on the south side of the current track it will be a real problem for Florida before we have to worry on other places. As for Puerto Rico.. I feel real bad about Puerto Rico. Seems in the way but it's a small island in the middle of a big sea and well.. keep watching.
Just keep watching. Beautiful little storm to watch.
As for Flossie.. a BIG problem for Hawaii as they are not used to storms intensifying as they near Hawaii and I said a while ago on HurrCity that I was worried about the big island. The storm just had that look like it was going to go wnw not west.
As for the Gulf: Texas gets more rain. With a name, without a name.. either way, more rain.
That's it for tonight. I doubt at this point the NHC will upgrade at 11 but you never know. If the sats make them believe they might but I'd wait til morning. Either way does it make a big difference if it's tomorrow or tonight? Not unless the Gulf gels and this is not Dean and that is but I doubt that will happen.
Keep watching... the season has begun, the games have started, the models are running and the clock is ticking. I say it will be in the lower bahamas Turks maybe around the 19th.. and we will see then which way it's headed. IF it goes into the Caribbean... all bets are off.
Might I add this storm formed on my daughter Shay's birthday... and Castro. There are currently FIVE planets in Leo. For those of you trackers who like to think outside the box.. it's gonna want attention and it will get lots of it.
Tropical Depression Four Forms.. Cape Verde Storm!
Officially announcing the birth of Tropical Depression #4 far out in the distant Atlantic.
Follow along on Hurricane City or Flhurricane or any of the really excellent sites out there. I'll check in this evening with my thoughts after I get a feel for it and get done answering all my text messages from crazy friends excited about a real Cape Verde Storm.
Understand... you can't do research or study something until you have something to work with and hopefully one day a decade all so from now ... when a Cape Verde forms and models point it in our direction we will have a better understanding and even ways to help weather such a storm. Even the chance of weather modification to deal with a 2 and not a 4 would save so many lives in the world where so many millions live along the coastlines.
Take care, be back in a while Bobbi
Official at 11, earlier points given out at 8 12.0N 31.6W 35mph 1005mb w near 21mph (moving a bit fast I think)
Back In The Saddle, Tropical Storm Dean forming in the Eastern Atlantic.
Hey everyone, back in the saddle, back on the mainland, back at work. I was a little under the weather so I needed to take a few days off.
But... Dean calls. Darling Dean who seems to be intent on making a run on the Antilles and possibly somewhere further down the road on the Hurricane Coast of the United States.
Yes.. he may recurve out to sea. He may fall apart after hitting Hispanola or some Upper Level Low but those are a lot of "ifs" and he is very, very far away as I type this so.. basically my purpose this morning is to give a real "heads up" and say "Hi, ya'all" and good to be back.
Friends of mine who really know storms.. love this one and that says a lot to me because even if I think it has a lot of dust to swallow and injest and some shear from the high to it's north and I think it's moving a bit too fast to get it's act together but.. and this is a real BUT.. I defer to those who know so much more than me and they really think this is the real thing.
A real Cape Verde. The first we've seen in a while.
The Holy Grail sort of.. of Trackers and Researchers.
As for me... Shabbos in Key West was wonderful. The scents of a million flowers blooming in the baking sun, all mixed together into some incredible tropical scent that cannot be named other than to say it smelled like "Key West" I went by the Hurricane Grotto. I took a walk on Shabbos over to Bnai Zion which has to be one of the nicest, most beautiful congregations anywhere. Had a nice brunch with friends and... great food by my host who is a gourmet chef and slept, rested and read a bit the book called Hemingways Hurricane. More on that later.
But... for now, tropics call and nothing is more important than watching Dean. Unless you are in Hawaii... keep an eye on Flossie. I'm not sold on the Gulf, nice upper level low spinning down near Key West, pinwheeling around.
Back later with more details. The devil is always in the details and the Devil will be Dean if some of the models play out that make him a Cape Verde Hurricane.
Tropics.. On A Clear Day You Can See 4Ever... all the way to Day 16
Sunny skies, smooth sailing, big high, youtubing. Check back after the weekend to see if that Cape Verde Wave has formed. My head kills, caved and talked to Crazy Person today (shrugging shoulders.. I like people with fun, sweet personalities. Just not too many ..lol... if we don't have something form to track i cannot be responsible for what me and my shadow does lol. Cause me, myself and I get silly sometimes.
If the headache doesn't go away I am going to hit the road Jack and take a (smile) Road Trip... and hope it doesn't hurt somewhere else.
Tropics quiet... enjoy, think I am picking up too many signals today. Is this funky or what? A blast from the past when I was very little and wanted to be able to sing like Barbra Streisand. Took me a while to realize I did not get my mother's voice but hey... I can dance :)
Watched Smokey and the Bandit tonight, going to bed... sleep, no dreaming allowed. Hope everyone remembers to take their meds.
I took a day off. That for me is big.. had appointments. Business appointments, dentist appointments. Oh my gosh I'm in mild pain... and it POURED while I was in the chair and I wondered.. "what happens if the lights go out while he is working on you" and I think it was hailing outside and I couldn't get out of the stupid chair to go look and some people say a cape verde will form from one of these waves, one of these days and my old, love of my life boyfriend was Pre-Med studying to be a dentist and I hate dentist places because he worked in a dental lab and the smell always reminds me of him. :( and since i move on and try not to go there.. Dentist Visits Suck. So............................now you know.
Those in the know say a Cape Verde Storm will form soon from one of those waves, one of these days... O I said that... going to bed, nite Steven, Steve, Stephen, Stevie.. Overjoyed. Nooooo his name wasn't Steven..that was a long, long time ago before my world got taken over by Stevens who need PF.
I decided that today, he should have some sort of award for knowing the tropics so well, putting up with all his surfers, teaching us so much .. he should be on TV, on air.. . not just on the web cause he knows his stuff, is better than most on air weather people at explaining what's going on... I'd put him up there with the way Bryan explains things, better than Bastardi who does his webcast, cuter than Cantore!
Decided today that we should all make some ceremony to officially honor Jim as Big Kahuna of Tropical Weather Surfers as he is the best teacher and friend you can have to learn all about Tropical Weather Surfing.
See his site? In his own words, he wrote.. "how to surf" :) http://www.hurricanecity.com/howtosurf.htm
And, you can watch incredible post game analysis of what happened with the wave that was just a wave. Excellent alternate power system available there too! Can you imagine a generator made so simple and used without gas .. very cool. Either way... listen to Jim explain why he was right, the models were right, nhc was right but mind you I live at HurricaneCity so I go with Jim's thoughts as he is usually, almost always right.
Check it out: http://www.hurricanecity.com/update.htm
Jim was right with the 99 Wave. He usually is. Luckily for me not always because he's good on paying off when he loses a bet but alas.. he loses one rarely.
So.. instead of staring at empty vapor loops like this: http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html or pics like this: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.jpg still an invest, play with the buttons and learn more? noooo not today
I'm surfing and playing on Youtube and then gonna take my son who turned 13 today out to lunch and go shopping for food, school supplies... I might take him to the beach. Shhhh don't tell him ;)
Found this old clip this morning on Youtube after being silly on hurricane city message board. Sort of freaks me out sometimes as people always describe me as a Sally Field type. They are so right, it's pathetic. One of the guys, perky, cute, crush on moondoggie still. Did the religious thing. Am sometimes ditzy enough to not realize someone is dressed up like Mrs. Doubtfire with some Lois Lane sort of "hmmmnn" thing going on. Seriously, my life has been a lot like hers in ways. Gidget, yup, very Gidget except I had curves where Gidget didn't. (not posting pics) Yup, I wore the pigtails with the bikini and stared at my toes a lot and mooddoggie. Wore a habit, left the habit. Okay, a Jewish habit but still.. a lot of strange headcoverings.. Had a Smokey and The Bandit sort of car and we played on the CB (me and my ex)stand up for causes.. my life is like a bad soap opera and I talk to too many strangers okay they aren't all strangers but they are strange and well.. they get good pics, ideas, smiles sort of like some bizarre conversation between me and my shadow lol that I am posting here. Life imitates art or the other way around.
Funny to see Sally Field when she was so young and I didn't think she looked that young, way back when I thought she was so cool. She really amazed a lot of people, not just a one hit sort of wonder with one show, an Academy Award Winning Actress.. still beautiful after all these years.
Scary, does look like me at 16. Can see someone nodding and laughing their ass off right now. Sometimes the truth hurts and usually it is funny.
So..when you can't go weather surfing, go youtube surfing, when tired.. go to the beach!
I live in a beach community a few miles from the Atlantic Ocean where kids are known to California style "hit the beach" when in the mood. My kid's are beach kids.. Rivky my daughter is somewhere here at her best friend's http://www.kafka-franz.com/images/Murano_Grande-78m.jpg gym, pool, beach, gym, best friend, pool, view Mendy is or was here: http://www.skypic.com/florida/1-9139.jpg Moe and Levi and friends are probably renting a boat here today: http://www.infracity.de/miamivice/marinas/haulboat.jpg Shayna will come in for the Bar Mitzvah and rush off to the beach like she used to with Hanna at 17.
Haulover in Miami is just our beach, to people up north, around the world there is a small part with a nude beach. Tell a tourist you are going to Haulover and they smile at you and stare at your body.. It's just a beach. Sometimes a beach is just a beach. A beach with beautiful memories of me and moondoggie and my best friend and.. was a long, long time ago... paste in American Pie song. Oh, bad bad, bad mind flow there.
Gotta go.. bring your sunscreen if you are gonna join me today cause it's gonna be a hot one!
Love Bobbi
PS.. this is Miami Beach after the 1926 Hurricane http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/miami_beach2.jpg http://71.224.92.171/miami/Photos/1926hurricane1.jpg
Hey.. better enjoy it, while you got it, when you can still get it That's it. surfs up for me, taking the teenager to the beach today ;) cowabunga or whatever they used to say.. I'm a little young. Surfs Up?
Well.. one thing we learned so far from Wave99 is..
Sometimes a wave is just a wave.......
Another good thing we learned is.. the models are on the money this season. The models called this wave and called it a wave the whole time no matter what other people thought might happen.
And, they were right on intensity and track. They kept it weak and they kept it going west towards Central America. And, it did. Score one for the models on track AND intensity!
It was a great little wave. It chugged along, westbound, always identifiable, strong enough for a Hurricane Recon to go looking for a low level circulation twice and so far has not hurt anyone, destroyed anyone's life and probably gave some great rainstorms passing through the Lesser Antilles.
A few people say that wave will yet to have a Swan Song. It is back again on Invest.
But, today.. a Wave Is Just A Wave. Stay tuned to see if it has a Part 2 or if the show is over.
Nothing to speak of in the tropics. As Steve Lyons says "great sailing weather in the Caribbean. So.. for your viewing pleasure I present a youtube of some randomly happy couple enjoying time together in the Caribbean. Ah...to be young, to be in love, to be together.
Carib wave is playing peek a boo with us convection wise and I am not going to play along. Going to wait to see if that wave over Africa forms into anything or not. Wave watchers say it's a wave to watch but its alas still over Africa.
Older kids went out and bought some wine, salads and extra challah from Saras Tent.
Nice week, wierd day, always something going on that needs to be thought on but for now... going to relax, tune it out and enjoy the weekend.
Enjoy the video. Who knew they would ever be on my hurricane blog.
Oh...new numbers came out. They lowered the numbers for storms this season. Duh... Who would have guessed that one :)
Good feed of the Twin Cities Bridge Disaster. Governor quoted reports and complaints of the bridge showing stress.. there are 100s of bridges in this country that show signs of stress this bridge actually had the 3rd highest rating.
That of course has to be confirmed and not sure what the GOV means as 3rd highest but .. will make a lot of people wonder as they drive home today across America. Imagine a lot of people will be taking the back roads today. Traffic was very light going into Miami on I95 today.l
35 W Highway Bridge Collapse In MSPL During Road Construction
A horrible accident of some kind occurred today when the bridge over the Mississippi River in Minneapolis suddenly fell into the Mississippi River taking with it 50 cars that plunged into the River.
The bridge simply collapsed, pictures online show the steel girders looking like twisted steel spaghetti strands.
The river there has a very fast current as it lies between a series of locks.
I lived two summers of my life in St. Paul and traveled back and forth into Minneapolis daily. A beautiful city. Wonderful people. I'm sort of blown away. I can see that bridge and the stadium at the University in my mind so well.
So... showing the picture below of what the bridge used to look like.
Here is a link to the ongoing construction project. Tonight was supposed to be the second part of a two night closure when only the Department of Transportation in Minnesota knows what exactly was taking place but I would imagine heavy work was down last night. The project started in late June and was set to finish in September. This was the halfway point I imagine.
Despite what I have heard online there were cracks found in 2006. I suppose the cracks were felt to be minor or something that could be repaired during regular maintenance? ?? I suppose there is a difference between comments in the report in 2006 and actually failing inspection but time and investigations will tell.
Amazing rescue attempts and the story of the children being saved from the bus is miraculous. Amazing... very scary, very lucky to be alive. Just a matter of minutes made the difference between life and death.
Below is the report put up this week to warn people about the construction ongoing on the bridge.
My prayers go out to everyone and I feel terrible. I was there in February trying to point out the stadium to my brother and the view from the bridge is wild. More so the view down into the river is a bit scary. I never liked those locks on the river or the area in St. Paul around Ft. Snelling. Nicer parts of the River down near St. Paul.
It doesn't take a hurricane or an earthquake or tornado to affect loved ones, there really is no place you can go to protect yourself from such disasters. I hear all the time from people "I'm moving away from Florida to somewhere safe" You can't run always... sometimes bad things happen and they relate to bad maintenance, structural flaws, construction work error... who knows.. but you can't just pack up and run away to someplace safe.. Not that easy as we see today watching CNN.
Will go back to the tropics tomorrow... the wave will be there and it looks like a tenacious wave. Maybe the GOM will pop. One side of the stalled out front on either side of Florida. A few days away from that wave off of Africa developing..
Nite.. Bobbi, word fail me.. hope everyone I know in Minnesota is okay but there will be many not okay and the death toll will climb considering at least 50 vehicles fell off the bridge and people jog and drive underneath the bridge there as well. ********************************************************************************
I-35W will narrow to one lane in Minneapolis over two nights, July 31 and Aug. 1
ROSEVILLE, Minn. -- Nighttime bridge overlay work will require Minnesota Department of Transportation crews to temporarily restrict traffic to a single lane on I-35W.
The northbound lanes of I-35W between I-94 and Highway 36 will be restricted to a single lane from 8 p.m. Tuesday, July 31, through 5 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 1 and again from 8 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 1, through 5 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 2.
Southbound I-35W will be restricted to a single lane from 8 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 1 until 5 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 2.
The Mn/DOT reminds motorists to SLOW DOWN in work zones and NEVER enter a roadway that has been blocked with barriers or cones. Please join us in a safety partnership. For statewide traffic, construction and travel information visit www.511mn.org or call 511 or log onto www.mndot.gov
So... we watch the waves off of Africa to see what might be in store for us later in August.. Tim found me this closed system on a model.. Cape Verde Storm? Maybe.. we'll see.
For now.. a blast from the past, a real Tropical Update. Gone but not forgotten..
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
