Dean Heads Towards Jamaica, a Wobble Left of Right Tells the Ending

Why do I have Andrew's path here? To prove a point. What looks smooth can be deceiving. What looked like a beeline path for Miami was actually a not so smooth path that contained a wobble south.

Read on..and bare with me I am just waking up from a long, long weekend.

First off.. the NHC has done a beautiful job with this storm as Dean continues westish towards Jamaica, with much discussion as to where his final US/Mexican Landfall will be.

West.. west-northwest, west.. west-northwest... it is movement but it's all a matter of degrees on how far and how long a wobble lasts.

Most beautiful loop I have seen in ages:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_04L/webManager/last24hrs.gif

Understand a Cat 4 storm that has multiple eye walls with the whole eye wall replacement cycle thing going has temporary variations in degrees of latitude. It's all about how far north or west this storm gets and what it does just as it approaches Jamaica that tells the final chapter in this drama of Part 1 of Hurricane Dean which will be remembered as one of the meanest hurricanes of the 2007 Season.

Case in point: Andrew.


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1992/ANDREW/track.dat

Andrew hit Homestead Florida which is a suburb basically of the Metropolitan Miami Area all because of a wobble. One wobble south, just off shore made all the difference in the world to the downtown Miami area. A gigantic storm on satellite the inner core was a very tight, compact storm (much like Dean) and the smallest wobble made the difference between Homestead to the South suffering what looked like a nuclear blast attack and Miami Beach dealing with Category Two Hurricane winds was all the difference in the world. A wobble to the north would have smashed Andrew onto the Hollywood Florida boardwalk, beachfront area and .... no wobble would have taken that nuclear devastation sort of feeling into the downtown Miami area and ripped at Flagler Street the way the 1926 Hurricane did.

Bottom Line... a wobble.

And, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are prime time for wobbles as the eye replacement wall cycle goes up and down and the track over time looks straight and beautiful but within that beeline beautiful track are wobbles that last six hours or more.

So...wobble right... the storm goes north, wobble left..the storm goes south. No wobble and the storm goes right over Kingston.

That is about as simple and brutal as it gets. Much like watching some kicker about to kick the ball at the end of a long, exhausting, battle on the gridiron between two long term rival teams and a matter of inches means the ball goes through the uprights, goes wide, goes right, goes left, or bizarrely hits the uprights and bounces in or out. A matter of inches, meters, degrees. Someone wins, someone loses, it doesn't seem fair but it happens. It's life. On the gridiron, on the island of Jamaica.

All in all the NHC is doing a fantastic job. But, in the end it will be a matter of degrees of wobbles. See here the picture of Andrew's path.. you don't see the wobbles from this angle but on the ground in Homestead vs North Miami... it made all the difference in the world.

Personally... my youngest son was bar mitzvahed this shabbos in a beautiful service in Miami at Young Israel and it was beautiful. The kids were mostly all here, their friends were mostly all here. The whole extended Meyer-Schwartz family celebrated and considering on facebook it says there are over 60 fans/members of the family... a lot of them were there. Zalmy did a beautiful job, zoom zoom Zalmy zoomed his way into the adult world of Judaism and into the teen years. He and his friends and family are going to be celebrating with a big Paint Ball Shooting Party which he chose over sit down, fancy party in some ball room. The gun dealer son is picking up part of the tab ;) (they are government contracts, really, legal) and... well.. I'm gonna stay home, watch pre-season football games and stare at Dean. So... it's been a long, beautiful, tiring weekend and I have hardly had a chance to follow the details of the storm but... when I finally wake up from yesterday/last night's party here.. I'll be here, where all the action is..

And, lastly I realize that I no longer do email.. I do hurricanecity. I check there before I check email. Publishers Clearing House could be calling, Classmates wants me to know that five of my friends have joined, frumster or some dating service wants me to check in for messages and I am blind to the world as I check in with the crowd at HurrCity.

If someone needs me.. just join Hurricane City, register with a name and password and post me a message at the top of the screen... cause it is now obvious if I have 1 minute left before the world blows up into smithereens I will be checking the board at hurricane city ;)

Besos Bobbi
Watch Dean Make a Beeline for Jamaica

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_04L/webManager/last24hrs.gif

IS that awesome beautiful or what.................