TD4 Update, Moving A Bit Too Rapidly West

#1 He is moving way too fast west and being propelled by a strong high that is partially shearing the storms away from the center as well as keeping him on the fast track for the islands.

#2 The models have begun to break from the pack and argue with each other as to how much of a northerly component and when he will feel it. I figure pasta on Tuesday, Wednesday will be spaghetti models and going into the weekend we may need alka seltzer. Not to be too surprised, a few models still weren't speaking to it yesterday. Give them a few days and some good input from info obtained in RECON and we will have a better idea.

#3 That said... anyone here remember back on 8/7 when the GFS was calling for a hit on South Florida on the anniversary of Andrew? Next day it did a sequel to Hugo and then the Canadian came back with a hit on South Florida and straight into the Gulf. I think those models did a good job of calling our first Cape Verde storm of the season. Sometimes first impressions mean a lot.

#4 If the models are not taking into account his fast speed west then they will do a bad job on track and intensity.

#5 I haven't been in love with this storm. It has been a little messy in organization and though there seems to be banding the color pulsates up and down too much. An amazing hurricane tracker/person... specialist taught me years back that the way the storm starts out is often how it fills in later. The shape, the size, the pocket, etc and this one has been a bit bottom heavy.

#6 I still think it's bottom heavy because there is too much damn dust in the atmosphere still. The farther west it gets the less dust and the warmer the water. It will or can explode in a day or two.. say 2 days out. Going into Friday we will be grabbing for advil, alka seltzer and a bottle of Captain Morgan.

Bobbi's Bottom Line.

There may be a small weakness in the high. TD4/Dean probably will begin to go wnw and it all depends on how far west it gets when it feels the weakness. If the storm stays on the south side of the current track it will be a real problem for Florida before we have to worry on other places. As for Puerto Rico.. I feel real bad about Puerto Rico. Seems in the way but it's a small island in the middle of a big sea and well.. keep watching.

Just keep watching. Beautiful little storm to watch.

As for Flossie.. a BIG problem for Hawaii as they are not used to storms intensifying as they near Hawaii and I said a while ago on HurrCity that I was worried about the big island. The storm just had that look like it was going to go wnw not west.

As for the Gulf: Texas gets more rain. With a name, without a name.. either way, more rain.

That's it for tonight. I doubt at this point the NHC will upgrade at 11 but you never know. If the sats make them believe they might but I'd wait til morning. Either way does it make a big difference if it's tomorrow or tonight? Not unless the Gulf gels and this is not Dean and that is but I doubt that will happen.

Keep watching... the season has begun, the games have started, the models are running and the clock is ticking. I say it will be in the lower bahamas Turks maybe around the 19th.. and we will see then which way it's headed. IF it goes into the Caribbean... all bets are off.

Might I add this storm formed on my daughter Shay's birthday... and Castro. There are currently FIVE planets in Leo. For those of you trackers who like to think outside the box.. it's gonna want attention and it will get lots of it.

Chow for now, Bobbi