Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

70% RED BLOB in CARIB 11 PM (No Invest Yet but...??) Watching Carib for Tropical Developments -Waiting on the Next Model Run.... October Tomorrow... Are You Ready? Florida Are You Paying Attention??

To be clear....there's a Yellow circle in the 2 day.
The wave we have been watching move westbound.
The blob in the Caribbean is now at 70%
So far they haven't made an Invests.
Imagine in the morning...
It's at 70% so that's impressive.

Area 1 70% Red to the Left.
Area 2 20% Wave moving West.
Front o the North... 
Area 1 settling into the CAG.
Inception should begin soon.
Then what?
We will know tomorrow morning.
Just a late night blog with data to keep.
In my online diary I share with y'all.
Sleep well...
October 1st is starting off with a bang it seems.

Blog from ealier this norning.
Enjoy....or sweet tropical dreams.


Another view I love from this morning.

Looks a Cone or a Zone.
But nothing there... but clouds and the front.
Tropics today...
...what will it look like a week from today?

Today we have a yellow circle in the 2 day.
60% in the 5 day.
Cold front draped across Florida.
Another wave moving west into the Caribbean.
The players are on the stage rehearsing.
Reading the script, getting the feel for the it all.
Models taking guesses... some hate it, some love it.
Some like the GFS slam it into Florida...
...but each model run differs.
The Euro as it has been all 2020 is yawning.
Jim Williams says to watch the UKMET ...
...once something forms.
Told him I would once it gets a center.....

On the left the GFS goes bonkers.
The EURO yawning on the right.

Dabuh has sayings about waves.
Never take the first wave.
Who knows waves better than Dabuh?
But I'll apply that to cold fronts.
Bet on the reinforcing second front...
...and the added oomph from that wave.
Then things should come together.

Great loop up on

What do I think?
I'm looking long term right now.
October 7th through 10th time period.

Cold front comes down...
High builds in a bit.
Convection comes together.
Kind of like an incubator...
... and then we see something pop up.
Out of the CAG  Caribbean Gyre..
Waiting for next model run before talking GFS...
I'll update later today.
Expecting an Invest soon ... 
...more better models.
Yes "more better"... we say that Down South.

Leaving you with some Hurricane History.
October Hurricanes ...
Which kind will this produce?
Will it produce? 
Time will tell.
That Time will be October.
Oh and if you think we hype storms now..
...back when they really knew how to hype news!!

That was a headline for a Tampa Hurricane.

I'll tell you the truth, the real "Boys of October" are not baseball players but those mean storms that form deep in the tropics waiting for a ride on a cold front to zoom their way up into our part of the world such as Mitch and Matthew; I know never forget Wilma. Sometimes they are wimpy sort of storms such as Floyd in 1987 and that may sound mean but it wasn't anything like the Floyd yet to come in the 1990s. Floyd 1987 is the Hurricane we drove through to get the 2 year old stitches, a quasi casualty of the storm because if we weren't at my mother's "sheltering from the storm" he'd have been home at sleep in his bed rather than hitting his head on the headboard on the bed he was jumping on but I digress...   but hey it's my memory of that Floyd. We went home later that day, even the Sukkoth the little wooden hut in the backyard for our Jewish Fall Holiday hadn't blown down though some palm fronds we put up for the roof did fall in. Same holiday in 2005 when Wilma blew through it knocked out all the power, trees and damage a ghost of a stronger hurricane shouldn't have caused in a big city but our infrastructure was exhausted and weakened from Katrina and Rita that came through earlier that year.  

Floyd above a minimal hurricane. 

A common flow of moisture in October.

Below a Tampa storm... caught a  front.
Cruised up from the Caribbean, stronger.
Similar but different.
Storms of October.

Are you seeing a patten here?
That's the pattern we have now.
This October 2020

A front literally sliced down into Florida.
It'll be felt in Tampa but not Miami.
Sexy beautiful image there... Winter on the way.
Next front slices further South...
And that's what October is all about.
Fire in California.
Rain on the East Coast... often Tropical Rain.
You can cancel they gym and State Fair..
...but you can't cancel Mother Nature and Climo.

So let's do some Hurricane History.

But reminding you that you can get Floyd from 1987 or the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1946 or the messy 1948 hurricane that crossed the Florida Keys and cruised into South Florida after crushing Cuba with a heavy blow. October is like that proverbial box of chocolates you never know what you'll get til it's in your mouth either making you excited and happy or repulsed and spitting it out fast hoping no one will see. 

What is the difference? As I said before it's all about the fronts in October, how deep the front dips and what the orientation of the front is when the storm forms and races up towards the front in some meteorological magical romantic drama as last days as the last days of summer and fall fade away and cool air finally blows into South Florida. The week after Hurricane Andrew in August was hell, almost as much of a hell as Andrew had been and Andrew raced through the hot, dead calm, heat that enveloped us with no water, electricity or ice to cool us off was horrific... the cool weather after Wilma with the kids making a fire pit and roasting the once frozen turkey was like a Fall Carnival as we went about cleaning up and waiting for FPL to turn the electric back on. A tale of two hurricanes. Trust me the one that comes in October is way easier to deal with after the storm than the August one!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Since we are doing history today let's do the old original version.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

50% Tuesday Morning - Watching Caribbean and Frontal Boundaries. Florida Weather Forecast for Rain... Up into the Carolinas. All About the Caribbean Today. (and GOM.. either side of Florida)


Still there at 50% as of 8 AM.
No Invest yet but it's coming in the wind.
The tropical wind.

We are really de facto in October in the tropics as we slide into the month of mild mannered storms and monsters that go BOO! as we get closer to October and those perfect storms of mixed up energy that sometimes bomb out into a monster or merge with a cold front very Isaias like so ... don't say I didn't warn ya.  Yes, it looks quiet, it feels quiet and cool air is filtering in as we begin to dig into Fall and all it's magical aspects. The problem with that is we get a sense of false security and we often let our guards down and then a storm forms in the tropics and the digging frontal boundaries transport them fast up into our part of the world. Those are my basic thoughts for the day, video at the bottom and some thoughts from around the web in between ... kind of like a Tropical Sandwich with Bourbon BBQ sauce.

Oh and lots of rain.
So let's go with the NWS out of Miami.
They are good, very good.

Full Moon means High Tides.
Watch the Weekend Weather carefully!

Mimic below.
Just an image... tells a thousand words.

NW corner of this image shows the front.
Dark blues/purples pushing down.
Orange flames of moisture.
Yes I wrote that... 
....watching a story on the fires in California.
But they look like flames don't they?
Odd but true.
Flickers of moisture?
Note the orientation... 
Everything is N NNE or NNE
And that's Caribbean Time in the Tropics.
What forms down below...
...zooms up with a frontal boundary.
Or merges with a stalled out front.
But stronger fronts coming soon...
Florida Prime Time is actually OCTOBER!

Another reminder is we always watch..
frontal boundary leftovers.

Mike posted this picture.
Models come and go.
But the convection remains.
At some point something comes together.

Dabuh reminds us in a visual memory...
...when Matthew looked all ghoulish.
Dressed up for a Halloween...
... October party!

When hurricanes imitate art...
...amazing but true.

My point here is...
Either side of Florida bears watching.
But most of all watch down below...

A video I made earlier.

All about the Caribbean.
Because what starts there doesn't end there!

We will talk models when they make more sense.
Africa not dead but Caribbean is where it's at!
Oh and GOM always is connected to the Carib.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
(really had the oddest dreams recently)
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter.

Instagram can be sometimes 
 fashion or make up or food.
I don't understand Italian... 
...I just pretend I do.
And watch the video...
...if you are into fashion. 
Like a Mini Movie with no subtitles.
Can't tell if that's Fall or Winter. Hmnn.

But Twitter is almost always weather ;)
Love listening to Mike ramble....

Ps........ only song I could think of when looking at models because honestly the models paint so many different pictures for what might come out of the Caribbean. So I'll just leave you with this thought... lots of rain in Florida (for sure) and the Carolinas are rain this time of year in between fronts that actually make it through with real cold air. Pay attention especially in Florida (and Cuba) but don't worry about it yet. 

Monday, September 28, 2020

Monday Night Football & Tropical Update... GOM Moisture VS Caribbean Wait & See Area at 50% NHC Area Looking To Be an Invest.


Dark orange/black stripes upper left cover. Front.
Watching green and purple convection bottom right.

Late Monday night update while I'm watching Monday Night Football and playing catch up on the tropics as the NHC seems to have fast tracked an area in the Caribbean for development. You have the front upper left corner and may I add that is the first of the three fronts and the Caribbean convection lower right. What's nice is we can watch this on radar in ways tonight also. Really a combination of things coming together currently, you don't need to understand Spanish to know there's moisture down there moving en mass towards a possible date with destiny. Models don't agree, what else is new? Why we watch and wait.

Radar from Puerto Rico...
..up close and personal.

Luckily Mike did a late night short update on Facebook that also gets put up on YouTube so while looping loops for myself I can listen to him talk; definitely a favorite pastime listening to Mike talk. I can tell a lot by the words he uses and well after you know someone over a long time you can tell a bit what they are thinking or not saying. He's right, early models are never reliable especially this time of year when a multitude of things can happen.  

Some models do show it being picked up by the first front but others show it getting under it and wandering around until the second front comes in to grab it but that first front is diving so its hard to imagine it trying to find a cave in the Caribbean to hide in for a while until the second front soon after. As always I wait until a defined center develops before seeing where it goes in the moisture stream noticeable on the water vapor and MIMIC and a few other sites.  Earthnull shows not much there tonight though I do have to say the Gulf of Mexico is interesting with moisture, hot and juicy waiting for the front to come down and grab it and they will run together without a name most likely but someone is going to get a lot of weather from that combo while we wait to see if somthing forms down below in the Caribbean. So pointing out there will be an undefined relationship that takes the breath away from the first cold front and that's going to cause a lot of wet weather heartbreak for people tomorrow into Wednesday along the East Coast.

It's a watch and wait and see set up.
Water is hot in the Caribbean.
And this is it's hour in time.
Moving towards October.

The chart above agrees with me.
But NHC looking at long term potential.
Understand the GOM IS more interesting.
TODAY it's more interesting.
Caribbean is always interesting...
...but often a tease with drama.
Down the road the Caribbean is a problem.

Good loop to watch below.
We are digging ...digging cold fronts.
We are going oh so frontal here..
3 count em 3 fronts.

A video I made below up on YouTube.

Trying to get used to Bloggers new format.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... Bless your friends and your family.
They often help keep us together and smile.

Sunday, September 27, 2020

Tropics Quiet This Weekend. In Football the Hurricanes Won Big Time... but in Meteorology it's Quiet! What's Next??


Yes X Paulette comes back often it seems. 0%

It's easy to write a very short blog today and so I'll do the cliff notes version below and then if you wish you can read the whole blog.

Okay, nothing really happening. Ignore the ghost of X Paulette. Cold front picking up GOM moisture. Have a very good day! Oh and the Hurricanes won big last night, some egos were busted by the losing team but they will learn and life will go on but hey... Hurricanes at UM having a big year it seems just as they are in the Atlantic Basin!

Basin on Sunday 9/27/2020 - Zero Hurricanes.

Above we see convection in the GOM.

An old wave westbound.

Cold front at the top of the image.

Really this is the way things work in late September when football finally appears on air and you root for your favorite team to win and if you are lucky ...they win really big. Cold fronts are the main driver of tropical activity now as the Atlantic High begins to hand off the last of the tropical waves moving off of Africa that either try and wrap then dissolve or try to slide into the Caribbean under the radar and any front that lingers too long in warm tropical waters could spin up into something tropical.

It's a lot like football. You turn the game on and there is this timeless ballet of action moving back and forth across the field as yout team gets the ball, then the other team gets the ball and then your team gets it again. Sometimes you score big as some of those waves became Major Hurricanes and it seems at times like the winning team is just running up the score and other times it's scoreless for way too long. Sometimes one team hogs all the time of possession and that basically is what Paulette and Teddy did and they did succeed in shutting down the offensive line of Tropical Waves moving Westbound in September and even though the media played up the game big ... Teddy and Paulette stole the show, interecepted the ball and slowly paraded North waiting to do a victory dance in the end zone.  Paulette by the way keeps getting up even though the whistle was blown already twice.. I'm not even sure if that's allowed as the rules seem to have been thrown out in 2020 in all ways so the NHC has a small yellow painted magical football out near the Azores and they are ignoring the convection in the Gulf of Mexico which in truth is no match for the strong diving Cold Front. 

But on "Any Given Sunday" ... as the saying goes something, somewhere forms this time of year. It may be from a wave that managed to evade shear and cooler water or it may be in the Caribbean as convection begins to congregate there and pressures begin to lower or it could be out in the middle of the Atlantic somewhere where eels and currents collide and a named storm appears.

Time will tell. I'll be offline from Sunday evening until Monday evening for Yom Kippur, the day that Sandy Koufax didn't play in the World Series and that led up to his final game and eventual win and he won a MVP award and went down in Jewish History for elevating everyone's conciousness I suppose that Yom Kippur exists and you don't have to be the most traditional or religous Jewish person for it to resonate and matter.  So wishing y'all a good, healthy, HAPPY life this year on the Hebrew Calendar and may you enjoy the weather you love most always!

If anything pops up before tonight I'll update... but I have a lot to do today so that's it. And, yes I can switch sports in real time and I know life is bigger than football and I'll always remember where I was when the Red Sox won the World Series and where I was when the planes flew low over our heads above us as were talking by the bay and they were on their way to some championship game at Joe Robbie Stadium that we didn't care about and yes amazingly I even forgot there was a game and thougtht we were under attack post 911 I suppose but my friend remembered it's just a football game. (Golden memories from the vault in my head) Are planes doing flyovers at sporting events during Covid or do they just play the sound the way they do people cheering? Ain't 2020 grand?

Much love, 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps...trying to see if this worked and it posts the youtube video I made earlier on the tropics. New phones, updated Apps and changes across the board for Facebook Twitter and Blogger. May the changes this coming year only be good ones for you! Playing with a new phone and a new format but it's still the same rock and roll to me :)  Rock on... be happy!

Friday, September 25, 2020

Still Quiet, Watching Areas That Could BUBBLE UP .. Close In ...But NOT Expecting Anything For the Next Five Days. That's Why We Call Them Homegrown Surprises.. Fall in All it's Glory Moving In and a Beautiful Video Production .. a Short Movie By Josh iCyclone of Hurricane Sally


Tropics still quiet and should be for five more days, yet so far I have yet to see a complete 5 day "nothing happening in the tropics" make it all the way through five days this year without something popping up. Cool air has descended upon many parts of the South, the cooler the weather is the higher up in elevation you go, and more is on the way. But we also have periods like today when it rains and rains and we wait for the next push of cool air while staring down to the South watching to see if anything might develop and sneak up our way between cold fronts. Maybe this is a mean teaser of an illusion but this taste of Fall seems like the real thing and if I sit quietly by the window long enough and don't get distracted I can actually watch the leaves turn colors. 

One thing I do love about Mike is he is a man of his times, his seasons and he finds joy in every season ... even though the Hurricane Season is his prime time season. I'm pretty sure he's like that big brother that you wish you had who would send you Autumn Leaves from Wisconsin if you were living in the Florida Keys and then he'd bring them down himself and party with you a bit as he picked up seashells and packaged them up to take back to his friends or family back home where they don't have Florida sea shells. We should all have brothers like that or friends, ya know? But his webpage says it best, it's Fall and there is nothing officially going on in the tropics today and we are all smiling at Fall Weather which means cool by me and lower dewpoints in parts of Florida such as Tampa which does get more of a taste of cool air than Miami but where people get into the spirit buying their favorite frappe at Starbucks with a Fall sounding name.

I do love this site above so going to use it today.
Note the rain off the East Coast.
Shadow of a front draped across Cedar Key and Jax.

Wide Basin - there's fluff and stuff traveling west.
About as clear as the satellite gets in late September.

And on the IR Satellite we have a Low ...
...down in the Gulf of Mexico.

This is a great view.
Because there's two...
areas to watch.
Yet there's nothing expected yet.
So let's just enjoy the quiet.
It won't last long in the tropics.

I finally had a chance to watch this video.
When I say watch it - I mean savor it.
I like to savor good things.
It's been several crazy days in my world.
So the house is quiet, rain is steadily falling.
And I savored this video.

I really love this video and for the reason that he mentions in that it's rare to get good "hurricane video" at night with the lights and power out and just the sounds of random wind and things scraping against the building as you are hunkered down waiting for the eye. You get great "before video" and a bit of it "moving in" and then the estatic sense of the eye with it's abundant quietness after a cacophony of sounds of debris colliding in the dark outside or slamming into your safe spot where you have bunkered down and then the obligatory "after the storm" video. Google Hurricane Andrew and you will often see the same street sign trembling fast, shaking in the hurricane wind that was filmed from a chaser under an expressway not in the eye but deep in the storm.  That video is annoying though the first few times it was fun to watch, because you want to say "is that all there is" and pretty much from the bowls of Hurricane Andrew that did make landfall in the darkness ...that was all there was for a while, til bits and pieces of video showed up. 

A hurricane that provides a good view with lights on along a major street where power exists deep into the storm can teach others what a real hurricane looks like compared to an afternoon thunderstorm gone wild. The sheets of rain illuminated by a neon light still on at the top of a hotel or the waves in the water on the street where you live as you watch the current moving down the block towards your best friends house.  One of my favorite storms that I was in (yes on purpose, chasing) was on a major highway where things are less prone to go bump in the night, hunkered down at a rest stop that was safe and the big street lights illuminated every moment of the fury of the storm. Once in a while a vehicle would drive by and in their street lights you had this magic motion picture show of the rain turning colors and you could actually watch it all in real time. It was a real storm trust me, but not a Category 3 Major Hurricane and though it did cause some damage no one's house was blown away but because there was power on at the Rest Stop I could rest, stare and watch it all happening around me. 

I've done that from my front porch with my brother when we were safely protected from the wind on one side of the house and watched aluminum siding and roof tiles blowing down the street in the wind in the daytime, but again often storms do make landfall in the dark of night. Once that brother and I drove through a hurricane on Miami Beach  to take a child to get stiches (no not from the storm but from jumping on his Grandma's bed and hitting his head on the headboard) and I'll always remember the street signs shaking and the hanging signal lights swaying in the wind with green and red colored lights turning the rain into that magic light show; on the way home the power was out and we just drove slowly through the dark, endless rain and strong wind taking it all in with the stitchd up two year old.

Living in Hurricane Country provides you with a multitude of hurricane memories from Major Hurricanes such as Andrew to smaller ones that did rearrange many things but clean up was fairly easy and not as painful as endlessly trying to keep the yard clean during Autumn in North Carolina where people battle daily to clean their lawns with blowers that are louder than the wind in a Tropical Storm.  The chash of seasons goes on and on. I don't get that as I like the leaves on the ground, but whatever Miami girl Up North in the Deep South doesn't really get it totally. 

It's friday morning, going into a nice Fall Weekend for me. Fall Weekend has to be in capitals the way Hurricane Season needs to be as I am sure it's a noun. Lord knows people who live where the seasons thrive wait for them through the hot dead air days of Summer previously known as the Dog Days of Summer. See capitals are important as they show how important something is or was in our lives. 

So have a Wonderful Weekend and I hope and pray that all our landfalling hurricanes this year will be more like Sally, less like Laura and the Major ones like Teddy that stay far so far away out at sea.  I'm not done with the Hurricane Season yet trust me, but I am loving Fall and football on TV and cooler air that makes taking a walk feel beautiful and opening my windows or sitting on my balcony sipping coffee smiling rather thank thinking "oh my God how much longer is this going to last" and in the Carolinas relief is in sight, yet I can't promise a hurricane might not come up from the Sorth and put on a good show so keep watching. And especially if you live in Florida along the Gulf Coast side that looks very much like a Carolina Beach or in Carolina Beach in North Carolina keep watching and as always Miami is not exempt from a hurricane. And Indian Summer often brings a relaxation of fronts anda storm can ride up the East Coast much like Isaias did back when we were in the regular alphabet. Oh and in Tampa, keep waiting for that October Hurricane y'all are sure will come once again as it did back when.

Thanks for reading along with me. 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Maybe I'll take a Fall trip to Wilmington.
Not for fall color but a quieter cooler beach.
And stand on the Johnnie Mercer Pier and just breathe..
..and smile.

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Life Goes On In the Tropics Quiet Today... Give it 5 Days or So... Hurricane History... Late September Storms... Where Do They Form??


To be honest I started to write the blog this morning and got waylaid by things that came up so here I am this afternoon, and hey nothing much has changed as the tropics are quiet today. Teddy's long wake signature across the Atlantic remains, fadding, ebbing slowly fading away and moisture from the Caribbean is still being drawn up into the remnants of Beta as it tracks slowly across the South bringing rain here, there and everywhere. The region above is the area where most of us are watching for development to occur down the road, over the next few days more models will show signs of development. Some models have been consistent and others nervous about jumping on the Caribbean bandwagon too soon I suppose. One way or the other, it should happen. Of course, always watch for close up POP UP storms.

I know I sound like a broken record. But every year the tropics go quiet and take a breather at some point before they ramp up again in October. Just for "fun" I decided to look for a late September system on Google totally randomly as an exercise and this is the one that came up below. BAMN! Pin the head on the Caribbean system way back in 1917. Most storms were in the Caribbean, but I thought a bit of Hurricane History would be a good idea here today so read up on this fascinating late September storm that developed where we are looking now for development in a few days or so.

Where do you think it made landfall?
I'm not showing you. You can read it in that link there.

It was a relatively quiet season or more "normal" slow but the truth is whether it's busy or whether it's slow CLIMO kicks in because that's the way the world works. Whether we are ready for Fall or not, leaves up north begin to turn and in South Florida we begin to noticed snow birds flying on on Jetblue and Southwest. Odd to me as a child growing up in Miami that a seemingly dead tree "Up North" begins to show life again on cue in the Spring.  I actually love the Winter when trees are bare and you can see the sky through them and each unique shape is beautiful and the truth is each tree is like a person and unique in it's own way. Nothing as pretty to me as a winter sky except snowflakes falling through it the winter sky on me. Well it's a tie with being at the beach as a hurricane is making landfall, sea foam, wind whipping and everyone waiting for the arrival of the much awaited storm.

Back to the Hurricane Season... please watch the video below. I do believe we will see tropical action soon, because that's the way of the world........even in slower seasons.

A video is linked here and you can view it here or on Twitter.

Here's a picture from the video.

And a link to the video is above... 

Below is a song. 
A nice song.
A good song.
It's also the way of the world.
Life goes on...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... enjoy the song.

Choose your video ;)

Oh you thought it was going to be the video about the cute Reverand?
The nice family, sweet kid...and daughter R something?
With the TV show? 
Nah... but same saying... life goes on.
Oh come on... I don't like to be that predictable

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Quiet Day in the Tropics ... Rain From Beta Continues as Does Clean Up. Same Goes for Teddy. Nothing There Today. Reboot and Rest Day. More Coming Down the Road.


Keeping this very simple today. There is nothing officially going on in the Atlantic Tropical Basin today. Both Beta and Teddy are no longer official storms, though their weather goes on and on and the plug seems to have been pulled on Paulette and all the other riff raff; no yellow circles or orange ones though that may change at 2 PM or tonight, time will tell.

Smooth Sailing today in the Tropics.

What we do know is a good part of the hurricane season is ahead of us and that final third part usually is filled with storms that form closer in ... in the same way the season begins it often ends. It does not mean a tropical wave coming off of Africa cannot surive, be named and make it to our part of the world. Westbound tropical waves continue, but the Atlantic needs to "settle down" in the same way that after you have had a 24 hour bug or you had food poisoning you don't get up out of the bed the next morning and run out to Dennys and order everything off the Breakfast menu, you need time to recover, feel better vs running a marathon. The tropics are like that after a larger than life huge super storm, hurricane that takes up a third of the Atlantic ..... everything needs to settle down.  As fronts move down and settle into tropical waters, stagnant, no longer cold nor moving it's common that development occurs in those set ups and that is why BEFORE SALLY FORMED I kept saying the pattern and set up of the moisture would call for a storm somewhere around Florida (East or West side) North of Cuba and Sally POPPED UP ... CLOSE IN. It is as if the Water Vapor Loop plus the MIMIC along with a knowledge of what weather will be like the next 4 or 5 days across the nation shows you where something could develop and you watch with model support or without model support. 

Currently we are looking at a wave to get into the Caribbean or near it and possibly develop and a small chance still (yellow circle or no yellow circle) around Cuba/Florida that something will try and spin up and no models this morning aren't screaming "STORM" but often several models have shown it and it's not about the models as there are some years where things form often (such as this year) yet the models missed it for whatever the reason and that happened with Hanna with Sally and with Laura so while I love the models and it's good to have them remember they are best used far out as an indication something might form and in the short term to confirm what we already see looking at the pattern, atmosphere, satellite imagery (especially the water vapor loop) and what the MIMIC hints at and that's how things work often in the weather. I know it's fun to say "BUT THE MODEL" but the model shows a hurricane, takes it away, then puts it back somewhere else....   CLIMO (the study of climate known as climotology) generally tells you where to look for something to form and you study hurricane history and how years with similar patterns to ours (hot summer, cool summer, wet summer, El Nino, La Nina, etc) played out and that's why everyone is saying watch close in and around the Caribbean ...especially at dangling fronts that decay yet the  moisture remains over hot water or a tropical wave hits the area where convection was lingering from a dead front and lights it the way you light a keg of dynomite!

Have a very good day today! Give charity when you can as you can to those in need who were horribly impacted by storms this year and breathe easily knowing your city isn't in a Cone but know that a week from now your city may be inside the Cone on the 45h Day and you'll be debating whether the models are right and what to do next.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Taking a rest today and getting other stuff done because Mother Nature will show her hand soon enough.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Fall 2020 Arrives - Teddy is a Typical Equinox Storm & Beta is SADLY a Typical Bayou Flooding Storm bring Floods to Houston/Texas Area. What's Next? Caribbean Coastal Cruiser? Then Winter Stay Vigilant & Prepared, It's Not Over Yet.


Rather than show cones today.
I went with this graphic.
Says it all. 
Multiple warnings from Beta in the GOM
Mutliple warnings from Teddy in the N Atlantic.

What is most important to take away today from our current set up is Teddy is your typical Fall Equinox storm system. Way back before we had the NHC or the NWS or any form of "weather bureau" early settlers learned from history that the Fall Equinox often brought a strong Gale to the East Coast somewhere and that was part of the switch being flipped as they moved from Summer weather into Fall weather and the change of the seasons. History books are filled with long stories culled from journal entries on damage done to small farming communities or ports where ships littered the landscape as mighty storms tossed them ashore the way the way Sally did those sailboats into people's back yards. And, in fact many of those hurricanes turned into Superstorms as they merged with frontal boundaries that arrived early or just on time to put Jack Frost into business way before we had Pumpkin Spice Lattes. 

Things in the atmosphere shift. When you look at the visible imagery off the East Coast you see cold weather clouds out over the ocean off the Carolinas, Georgia and even North Florida. Massive waves crashed onto the beaches in Florida with sea foam dancing across the sands and that was from a very far away Hurricane Teddy that kissed Florida with Fall like temperatures rather than tearing everyone's beach houses down. The Outer Banks got high surf (happens) but it didn't wash out the bridge from the mainland. I can't promise that luck will hold and it won't happen over the next six weeks but if it does happen it will most likely be from a Caribbean Hurricane that rode a cold front up across Cuba into some part of Florida and up the East Coast; hopefully that doesn't happen and it crosses Cuba and traces the coastline just offshore the way many have done so far. Of course to the West it could impact Tampa and Jim Williams who has been very on the money with his predictions this year has put Tampa in his top 20 list for storms so keep watchng. And, in truth several systems have barely missed Tampa even though they got slammed with weather so patterns do exist from year to year so the area from Key West to the Bahamas must be watched be it from our current lemonade flavored circle with only 10% real lemon in it over Cuba currently or a weak westbound wave that finds it's groove near Jamaica.

Those are my thoughts. Words matter and as we cruise into the Fall Season as leaves turn where I live and Miami gets a less humid day we need to remain vigilant and on guard for hurricanes, but know with La Nina we should transfer fast from tropical systems to deep diving cold fronts and a wet messy cold winter in parts of the country.

That's the way of the world.... as we move into Fall and speculate on Winter.

Much love.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram... 

Ps... some videos from Twitter posted here if you click on the links. I'm all about words today because honestly words matter and that's why I often say "read the discussion" from the NHC but today I'd go with the and NWS discussion as we have weather on many levels from systems close in and also far away. And as always all the loops are up on as well as a link to where you can buy your shirt with the Greek Storms on them for our crazy Hurricane Season of 2020.

Weather influences everything especially the economy.

Feel free to send me your song. My Grandma's favorite song was Autumn Leaves... now I know what it's all about as I live in NORTH Carolina ;)

Monday, September 21, 2020

UPDATED 11 PM... PAULETTE BACK FROM THE DEAD---------------- WATER vs WIND the Problem With Beta. New Week With the Same Tropical issues. Area Near Florida?? Teddy N Bound. Where Are Those Westbound Waves?

11 PM NHC...

Breaking News while Beta inches towards the coast.

Teddy rips up the East Coast from so far away.

Paulette. Azores/Portugal.

What more can I say. Apparently Paulette is back NHC seems fascinated this year with Portugal ya know? Common we have storms pop up near the Azores. Often storms regenerate once in the ocean, Ivan did once back in the water but this Portugal storyline is getting strange. So add that into your bag of "guess what happened in 2020?"   Season far from over so buckle up your seat belts and pay attention. 

From the NHC...that's what they said.



10 PM

2 points tonight.

1... the weak front across Florida could produce a system.

2. Paulette may be back as a Subtropical.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's update.

5 PM basically said it was inching towards the coast.
A lot of that going on this year so far.
Beta so far...

Beta is doing that thing they do...
...and looking better closer in.
In South Florida ...there have been crazy rains.
Strong tropical like weather.
Rarely does my brother complain ever.

It doesn't look that bad.
He said the car was shaking like crazy.


Keep this image in mind today.
First when looking at the NHC grid.
Next when thinking long term.
Link at the end to a video I put up on Twitter.
It explains this a bit more.

Re: Beta

Again never believe early odd models.
Or early odd Cones.
This is logical.
It's a weak 50 MPH storm.
But it's kicking up WEATHER.
PUSHING WATER everywhere.
So another TS water problem.

Let's be aware that depending on where the "center" of Beta is it's obvious a good part of her will be over water and that means it will continue to pump up rain in a similar but different way to Harvey and Allison and this is a typical Houston issue not to ignore the rest of Texas and Louisiana's issues. This is BETA and it's 2020 and we will have high water rise, flooding from rain and a pier has already broken apart in Galveston. 

As for Teddy he is going away.
But his waves will propulagate towards the E Coast.
Riptides. Some flooding. Storng winds.
Again a water issue.. add in the wind.
Pushing the waves towards the shore.
So along the East coast.... 
...actually Florida North be very careful.
It's a time to walk the beach and take pictures.
Not swimming.

So let's go back to that picture up above.
Because I want to talk about it.

We are transitioning in the tropics.
We have moved into the next stage in Hurricane Season.
Close in development from frontal boundaries.
Gryes in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
The Atlantic was ripped apart by Paulette and Teddy.
Waves are still rolling off of Africa but not as strong.

While there are more waves...........'s not the same as it was.
This is what I put in the Tweet below.
Please listen. 
Goal for today is to figure out why Twitter 
and Blogger don't work together since the upgrade.
And to pay my Sephora bill :)
I have low expectations for today.

The water in the Caribbean is red hot.
The progression of cold fronts changes the game.
As they settle down draped into the Caribbean.
Yellow Circles pop up. Storms explode.
They head North and NE towards the EGOM

We are at that point in the season.
Just accept it.
And each point in the road has it's own issues.
A Major Hurricane in the Carib could happen.
Something close in near Florida begins.
From Tampa to Jax people look South.
And beg for those cold fronts put push into Florida.

In Raleigh and it's beautifully cooler.
And I'm reminded constantly...
...the seasons they be a changing.

Feel free to check the NHC site out.
For names.
Next name up is Gamma.

If you were not in a sorority...
..and didn't study Greek.
You may need to check out this list.

It is what it is.
Deal with it.
You may get hit by Delta.
Hopefully not Kappa.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Nice room go figure.....