Quiet Day in the Tropics ... Rain From Beta Continues as Does Clean Up. Same Goes for Teddy. Nothing There Today. Reboot and Rest Day. More Coming Down the Road.

 

Keeping this very simple today. There is nothing officially going on in the Atlantic Tropical Basin today. Both Beta and Teddy are no longer official storms, though their weather goes on and on and the plug seems to have been pulled on Paulette and all the other riff raff; no yellow circles or orange ones though that may change at 2 PM or tonight, time will tell.

Smooth Sailing today in the Tropics.

What we do know is a good part of the hurricane season is ahead of us and that final third part usually is filled with storms that form closer in ... in the same way the season begins it often ends. It does not mean a tropical wave coming off of Africa cannot surive, be named and make it to our part of the world. Westbound tropical waves continue, but the Atlantic needs to "settle down" in the same way that after you have had a 24 hour bug or you had food poisoning you don't get up out of the bed the next morning and run out to Dennys and order everything off the Breakfast menu, you need time to recover, feel better vs running a marathon. The tropics are like that after a larger than life huge super storm, hurricane that takes up a third of the Atlantic ..... everything needs to settle down.  As fronts move down and settle into tropical waters, stagnant, no longer cold nor moving it's common that development occurs in those set ups and that is why BEFORE SALLY FORMED I kept saying the pattern and set up of the moisture would call for a storm somewhere around Florida (East or West side) North of Cuba and Sally POPPED UP ... CLOSE IN. It is as if the Water Vapor Loop plus the MIMIC along with a knowledge of what weather will be like the next 4 or 5 days across the nation shows you where something could develop and you watch with model support or without model support. 

Currently we are looking at a wave to get into the Caribbean or near it and possibly develop and a small chance still (yellow circle or no yellow circle) around Cuba/Florida that something will try and spin up and no models this morning aren't screaming "STORM" but often several models have shown it and it's not about the models as there are some years where things form often (such as this year) yet the models missed it for whatever the reason and that happened with Hanna with Sally and with Laura so while I love the models and it's good to have them remember they are best used far out as an indication something might form and in the short term to confirm what we already see looking at the pattern, atmosphere, satellite imagery (especially the water vapor loop) and what the MIMIC hints at and that's how things work often in the weather. I know it's fun to say "BUT THE MODEL" but the model shows a hurricane, takes it away, then puts it back somewhere else....   CLIMO (the study of climate known as climotology) generally tells you where to look for something to form and you study hurricane history and how years with similar patterns to ours (hot summer, cool summer, wet summer, El Nino, La Nina, etc) played out and that's why everyone is saying watch close in and around the Caribbean ...especially at dangling fronts that decay yet the  moisture remains over hot water or a tropical wave hits the area where convection was lingering from a dead front and lights it the way you light a keg of dynomite!

Have a very good day today! Give charity when you can as you can to those in need who were horribly impacted by storms this year and breathe easily knowing your city isn't in a Cone but know that a week from now your city may be inside the Cone on the 45h Day and you'll be debating whether the models are right and what to do next.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Taking a rest today and getting other stuff done because Mother Nature will show her hand soon enough.