11 PM UPDATE 100 MPH.... Still Trending Eastward..........12:30 PM 90 MPH ----- NOON HURRICANE SALLY Developing an EYE Like Feature Hour Later 85 MPH ..................11 AM 65 MPH Moving WNW at 6 MPH. Cone Shifts East. Does the Trend Continue? Mississippi in the Crosshairs Monday Morning.
This might be the understatment of the year "SALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF ALABAMA" that was what the NHC said an hour ago. It was obvious an eye was forming and that means a Hurricane is at least 80 or 85 MPH not 65 MPH but the NHC is the "buck stops here" site and it was obvious they would upgrade soon and they did. Recon confirms what we see on satellite imagery and radar.
My thought on this is this is ridiculous as it was obvious since last night that changes were beginning to happen late last night and that trend continued this morning. Years ago (like less than 10 years ago) the NHC was very conservative but careful not to jump on every jog of the eye and to think long term vs short term. The NWS is great, some offices better than others, but they tend to do short term with watches and warnings as weather changes. The NHC had Cat 2 way back when in their forecast discussion and I didn't see any reason to yank it out while it was in formation stages. The history of this part of the GOM combined with the lack of steering now obvious screams for a developing hurricane close in. The history of this system has been a legacy of flooding. When Tropical Depression advisories were posted as it was just offshore Miami I told the kids not to go boating as well as telling the son who has been biking for exercise as gyms were closed in Miami and is prone to biking 20 miles across tall causeways. I said "don't go biking" and the response was that they know how to read radar. Yes, BobbiStorm's kids know radar but with Sally on radar and developing an eye i am not sure why they went with 65 MPH at 11 only to update it to 85 at Noon and 90 MPH at 12:30 PM. I can't wait to see the 2 PM. This is a dangerous, developing situation as I showed earlier by showing images that showed it was clearly about to do rapid intensification.
And lastly 3 days before it developed I went on and on about how something was going develop from the strong moisture plume up from the Caribbean up across Florida even though no models showed anything forming. That's understanding hurricane history, synoptics and the messages of the water vapor loop for long term forecasting adding in the signature on the MIMIC. Models are great, but often they are wrong and sometimes Homegrown POPS UP and slaps you in the face with a developing hurricane that could go Major (hope not) while you are staring at a wave off of Africa, that's why I talked on POP UPs days before the NHC made it a TD off the coast of Miami.
I'll update later as more information comes in... dangerous situation, the only silver lining is a strong (major) hurricane could in theory break through weak steering currents... or it could sit and spin and create upwelling. Time will tell.
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As always I advise you to read the discussion from the NHC, it's easy to read on many levels and it explains their thinking concerning strength, track, steering currents and whether they have high confidence in their forecast or low confidence. A teaser is shown below that explains an eye does seem to be forming (if so it should be a hurricane soon) and the cone is still trending East but....a bit but....it's moving slowly so things can change and in this case probably nothing good happens as shear is light, she's moving slowly across warm water dredging up deep tropical moisture already piling in onto beaches in the GOM in the path of Sally moving WNW at forecasted speed of 6 MPH.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/141451.shtml?
Storms such as Sally are extremely annoying to track and more frustrating to forecast, deciding where to chase for chasers it's an even more pissant problem. That's a word popular in that region so using it and it fits my feelings this morning. Tropical Storms there ramp up into hurricanes fast and they fall apart just as fast and the way the sea bed beneath the beaches are shaped makes them prone to fast flooding and storm surge issues and with a slow moving storm it's different. How is it different you are wondering perhaps? Take a strong Cat Major Hurricane moving WNW rapidly towards the Florida Keys, it's as if one huge wall or water inundates, crashes into the beautiful island chain and then moves on towards other places it wants to visit in the Gulf of Mexico. The impact is brutal but it's as if a tidal wave hit as it's moving fast, washes over the Keys and moves on for people to pick through what is left of what used to be their lives. People live in the Florida Keys all year, it's not just a vacation destination.
Storms such as Sally pull up huge, immense amounts of tropical moisture from the deep Caribbean, moving slow and steady 9 MPH then 8 MPH now moving 6 MPH and often movement is a guesstimate by the NHC as they seem to wobble about it place lunging NE or appearing to lunge WNW again and often they are not alligned well so a mid level center tries to become the center then if its becomes the real center it makes an attempt at forming an eye and then suddenly "poof" it's gone and everyone tries to figure out what it's gonna do as it slows down just offshore when a strong front becomes a weak front because it's early September and fronts don't usually make it down into North Florida until October though there are always exceptions. Sometimes the eye deepens and the hurricane strengthens close in. Everyone obsesses on WIND and category strength but what you all miss is while this slow, tedious process evolves in real time the feed of moisture is ALREADY MOVING IN even though Sally is still offshore. Look at the image below and understand the feed of tropical moisture goes down to the Yucatan and beyond and it's all moving in now regardless of how strong Sally is wind speed wise or how fast Sally is moving. The water rise has already begun in some places and the area to the right of the "center" gets that moisture feed/surge first in a slow steady water level rise while the rest of you obsess on wind speed. And in West Florida people who have been burned before my sudden changes in track and intensity worry whether they are out of it or going to get more than they currently forecast. Every movement East of the cone puts Pensacola Bay at question for storm surge and wind impacts the way Mobile Bay is now a concern.
Out in the Atlantic while we are watching the Sally Show ... Paulette did Bermuda, literally and Rene is still trying to survive but about to give it up to the new kid on the block Teddy that is forecast to take Paulette's place as a strong hurricane moving across the same area that Paulette did but perhaps the ingesting of Rene may give it a bad stomachache and some sort of burp will make a ripple of a change down the road. Yes I wrote that. Vicky formed from TD 21 as sites kept putting up the name and taking it down, really you can't make this up. At 11 AM clarity showed up as the NHC puts out it's package of several tropical systems and hoping they have good coffee there because it's going to be a long day and a longer night. Nice warren of hallways at the NHC, I can see it in my mind and a nice little kitchen in their bunker like property on the campus of Florida International University.
Sally is gonna be there a while. The area under the gun is an area where Louisiana meets Mississippi and Mississippi meets Alabama and Alabama backs up to Florida so you have 4 states watching this storm that is difficult to forecast all at the same time. Landfall could be Tuesday or Wedesday in Waveland or Pass Christian or Biloxi or even Moss Point and Mobile Bay if it shifts East vs shifting West or towards New Orleans. It's one shifty system though in truth it has been slow and steady in the same direction most of the time, BUT THE FRONT... was supposed to grab it and ...well what about that front? The 3 day forecast is in motion below. Hard to bet against Mississippi but they are all very close together there.
Some History of the region down there in Hurricane Landfall Country. Since y'all have lots of time. Here's a site with info on the Republic of West Florida. There was once an East Florida and a West Florida, South Florida didn't really exist other than a beautiful swamp with beaches on either side and strong hurricanes that trashed treasure ships that lost their treasure and suck to the bottom of the sea. Here's one link but you can Google it... being an old Floridan we were always taught this in school. It may not have lasted long but the borders went all the way to Louisiana.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps.. I'll update around 5 PM unless something unusual happens before that, being that it's 2020 something unusual will probably happen.
Click on the link for a JB treat that you may not have heard before but it definitely fits the blog for today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-h9UukXeB0
The Pascagoula Run :)
posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:34 AM
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