Update 10 PM. New Areas of Interest Close IN. Tropical Atlantic a Hot Wet Mess... High Takes a Holiday. 2 Distant Systems. Carolina Rain. Long Term Problems But Models Have Had Problems Dealing With 2020... Who Hasn't?

The NHC has introduced a new Yellow X to the E of Florida with the area where it would form to the West of Florida in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico near where I've been saying to watch for Homegrown POP UP action for the last few days. From the North tip of Cuba, where there is a small spin now, up into Key West and towards Tampa there is a deep field of tropical moisture and everything has been firing along that line from the N to the S for a while now.  

The area off of the East coast actually did what models said it would do days ago and part of it moved in towards the NC/VA coast today and then flared up North of there on it's way towards the Del Marva...while leaving behind another piece of energy still off the coast. While debating whether to go to Wilmington on Thursday earlier in the week many models showed it would be already gone, yet other models took it to South Carolina before flipping back and well yes models have been terrible this year. Why I can't say but personally when you watch the water vapor, what is there and the flow and if the models don't make sense you throw that run out and go with the flow. When models are good obviously they are good but they have not been. 

Paulette moving WNW a bit faster but that's forecast speed so it's still moving slow. Possibly finding the center further to the South than they thought, but this has been an ongoing issue as it's had problems with shear that have hurt it's ability to develop a deep center. Rene is no longer making the loop back to Africa or Spain or wherever models took it yesterday. The wave over Africa is at 90% so any day now..........

Best to take things one day at a time when models are not reliable and the Atlantic is as chaotic without a strong high to guide you. While it's nice there is a weakness that could protect the East Coast that weakness can go poof or be not as weak down the road as nothing is really carved in stone. But we are moving into a pattern that looks more like late September going into October than early September. When you see that plume appear it makes you watch the Caribbean and any westbound wave that's a late bloomer that manages to get into the Caribbean that can become a Matthew or Mitch or even a Wilma type storm and the history books are filled with weak sysems that did tha same track but did  not become major hurricanes. And, when models show us a srong front that seems impossible this time of year we can no longer call that impossible.

Because to quote a line from a song in a play... impossible things are happening every day.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. I was offline a while today, very bad hayfever and allergy so been quietly looping and watching old movies ;)

Sweet Tropical Dreams

See the loop below to see what I explained above. Thanks!

Paulette and Rene.

New wave emerging behind it.

Forecast to stay lower.

And, probably develop later.

After the P and R storm do their thing.

Models do show problems down the road...

But the tropical road this year has been bumpy.

Filled with lots of pot holes that catch our attention.

You know like "what was that??"

Lots of detours such as the one Laura took...

...around most of Cuba.

Tropical moisture mixing it up with early cold fronts.

ISAIAS is an example of that.

#trying to reason with the #2020 #hurricane #season pic.twitter.com/kM07UEw2Es

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 9, 2020

So I am going to dismiss the  models today, let them get some fresh air or play in the rain. They have been working overtime trying to make sense of this all and in truth it's hard in real time to make sense of what meteorologists will be studying years from now looking back at 2020's odd weather anomalies. I can tell you long term models show a threat to the Caribbean and then up towards the Gulf of Mexico (yesterday they took turns hitting Tampa and then switching to the East Coast and hitting the Miami metro) and another model shows an East Coast threat that in truth I believe is very realistic down the road.  Again it's a bumpy road so keep that in mind and there may be detours along the way. In the end we will get what the pattern dictates and calls for and the promises of models changing on every run are not worth talking about. So let's look at what we know for sure and that is what is there today.

Compare and contrast with the NHC main page.

That's the 2 day... 

Isn't Paulette's envelope huge?

Juicing up the atmosphere, remember that.

Rene debating the travel plan the models gave it.

New wave thinking "no I don't wanna"

NHC decided they don't wanna do 94L

That means 95L will be the new toy of the day.

I really hate the NHC 2/5 Day Game.

There is NO reason in today's world...

..they cannot put them together on 1 page.

Note whatever "pops up" isn't here yet.

The could also easily put both Cones on the Main page.

Why are they so afraid of change?

Cones above. 

I want to delve into the world of reality today.

Paulette is a huge system on satellite imagery.

There is no threat to the Islands currently.

Rene trails behind Paulette after doing the Islands.

Rene a true Cabo Verde storm.

Rene made landfall early in the CV Islands.

Invest 94L is an interesting mess.

Not a "hot mess" a wet mess actually.

Rather than show models that change on every run.

I'm putting up the radar and you can watch in real time.

Rains moving in over the Carolinas.

And into Virginia.

We truly are one region.
Actually from Jax to VA it's the same.

So going to leave you today with a thought.

Something may actually form down in the Carib.

Or near there and get into the GOM.

It's a definite maybe.

That wave I've been watching is still there.

Moving slowly with the flow.

Kind of currently at the bottom of a trough.

What is around the tip of Cuba.

Near where Laura lifted North finally.

Gets into the SE GOM

Does anything happen?

I'm going to pretend today is October ...

or late September.

Maybe I'll eat one of my PSL M and Ms.

I'll be back and I'll update at the top.

Have a very good day.

Prayers to those without power still from Laura.

Prayers to those out west... 

Winds and Fire never go together well.

So if you are in the middle somewhere...

Nothing tropical, just rain.

And no fire, wind storms on the way.

Enjoy the day you have the way you want.

And pay attention to your local weather.

That's my best advice this morning.

Watch close in for now.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbitorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps....  Next few times we have model runs showing crazy, strong diving cold fronts we should believe they can happen (after what just happened in Salt Lake City) but know what comes down often backs back up as a wet, stationary front until the next cold front pushes it out to sea. For the remainder of the Hurricane Season remember that as we have moved into Fall territory where fronts are on the move and tropical systems eventually will get past the road blocks to our side of the world. And those that stay together and form closer to our part of the world present a different sort of dangerous problem, as they run out of real estate and depending on where the front is when they get there they either go out to sea or slam into the East Coast or the Gulf of Mexico area.

Since we all want to runaway or escape somewhere wishing we had a Winnebago or an Airstream Trailer or a large boat to sail away in... enjoy this video of Jimmy Buffet always trying to find the Far Side of the World.

A quick late night update to say that the NHC has now highlighted an area E of Florida that is forecast to possibly develop in the Eastern GOM as I had mentioned in previous blogs as a place to watch. Personally I'd have put the X further to the South of the development area as the moisture plume from the tip of Cuba goes up the West Coast of Florida and there is a small spin there already. But either way the area to watch for possible homegrown is in the Eastern GOM now.  Invest 94L has lowered chances though in reality the area off of NC/VA moved up towards the Del Marva with strong rain and convection as many models did show earlier in the week. The area in general is ripe with possibilities as it's really all part of one long trough like area of deep tropical convection.