Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 31, 2020

UPDATED 11 PM............15 Still 15. Water Rescues in Raleigh from Heavy Rain -TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 FORMS OFF THE CAROLINAS ---- Dueling Invests..........Tropical Trouble in the Tropics But Nothing Compelling or Major... Waves off of Africa And The Seasons About to Flip So Watch Out. Meteorological Fall Brings Trouble and the Equinox Massiver Hurricanes Usually. Oh and the Story of Victor and Ella.





There's a front........
......it's really part of a frontal system.
But I'm not going to go there...
It's got a signature on Earthnull.


Meanwhile in North Carolina...
...not specifically connected.
But all the weather here is connected.
After the "Cold Front" passed thru...
...it came back as a warm front.
Stalled ISH but moving slowly.


I kind of feel like we deserve a name or something.
While smaller than TD 15
We have way more energy going on...

Heavy convection.
Some areas had 6 to 9 inches...
just from today/tonight's rain.





So it stopped raining.
Cooled off but no breeze.
Then it began to rain.......
........and it hasn't stopped.
I live in an area not prone to flooding.
But as Raleigh has steep hills, dips...
... some areas flood!


Water rescues going on currently...
...in some areas.
There's been Flood Warnings All Night.




Okay we have Tropical Depression 15 off the East Coast from Invest 90L that is forecast to stay offshore and become a Tropical Storm in the near future. I would go to the beach and see how close it gets tomorrow, but I have a funeral for my friend Victor in Raleigh so guess I'll catch the next named storm round these parts because I'm guessing the third time is the charm for really being impacted by a tropical threat this year. So 15 will be a Tropical Storm in theory Nana unless the NHC uses that name randomly in the Caribbean ... 2020.  Meanwhile I was outside watching a wild line of thunderstorms come through fast and furious and I do mean furiously. Trees, bushes don't usually bend in Raleigh and it's not Miami where you get sheets of rain and squalls, but today's summer thunderstorm was wild.


It may not look like a lot to people in Miami.
But for Raleigh this was wild and intense.
I'll update the blog later...
...I'm soaked :) the wind was swirling everywhere.
Loved it.




And now it's gone as if it never happened.
Except for the huge puddles.
Stay tuned.



2:30 PM

I feel like we are at this scene in the  movie...
Dueling Invests.


This is a form of the water vapor loop.
One of my favorites.
99L in the Caribbean looks stronger.
More intense water vapor wise...
90L has a great spin on the visible imagery.

Models:


Majority still go with Westbound.
But a lot can happen still.
It doesn't even have a name yet.

There's always that one model that breaks from the pack.

Both Invests there's that one odd model.
Look at the bottom right of the models.



Down here...see tracks here?
Hmnn what's that?
One of the African waves?


Got out a bit. 
Went to TJMAXX
Enjoyed the "cooler" warm weather.
Less humid tho moisture is moving in.

I'm feeling like it's a duel of sorts....
...between 90L and 99L
99L was first...
..then we start over at 90L
All up to the NHC
They make the call.
Will they do it today?
Stay tuned.


Further out by Africa....
...a wave comes off strong and spinning.


2 of many.
My friend always says take the 2nd in the set.
We will see in a real time.









To decipher this colorful game of Tic Tac Toe.
The 2 red dots are at 70% and 80%
Yellow Dot is there to watch for slower development.


So let's break this down.
The low rider stays lows.
Could it pull North?
Maybe but most likely not but watch..
The Carolina Cruiser is cruising along the coast.
A site seeing tour, socially distancing..then out to sea.
By Africa we have two waves.
On is swimmming WNW.
The other has not left Africa yet.
Nothing screaming CAT 4!!
But two will probably get a name.
Unless the NHC starts walking down their chances.
70% Carolina Coast.
80% Caribbean Cruiser
As of 8 PM

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Yes, I do love this map and probably the main reason I love it is that it looks like a map. I do love maps. And, if there is anything here it sniffs it out and it's true to form so you can see the whole basin and if any storms might be trying to form. It doesn't show the intense detail of other newer sites but we don't have anything wild to zoom in on today so this is my default loop. So what does this loop show to the lay person who hasn't spent their life studying meteorology? It shows a wave train that's coming from Africa and it shows frontal boundaries moving off the East Coast into the Atlantic and what you can't "see" is the strong High the waves are being propelled South of as they move towards the Caribbean.

There are no huge hurricane threats today, however something could form if it gets strong enough for the NHC to tag it as a Tropical Depression later today considering the odds and the color of the crayola. Isn't it funny how everyone immediately remembers their favorite color in the big 64 box of Crayola. My cousin Brian always had the 64 box, my mother decided 48 was enough but my Aunt would go all out for the 64 box of crayons. All that bartering at friend's houses as kids wanted to trade off the yucky color for the one they loved. These are Invests, they are not the color you will always remember but they may work fine to color in your emotionally healing coloring book. Apparently in 2020 people are coloring their way to therapy or trying to overcome boredom so mentioning it. Supposedly it's good therapy.

What do I think about the tropics?

Later this week we hit Meteorological Fall and Fall really begins if you are like me and want Fall to happen sooner rather than later.

Then in 3 weeks we have the actual Fall that comes during the equinox when hurricanes like to happen and the seasons begin to collide. Indian Summer sets in, it gets very hot then a strong front pushes it's way down and at the same time waves that rolled off of Africa move towards the Low attached to the fronts and suddenly the East Coast is in play as storms lift more and try to avoid the Caribbean. While this happens the Caribbean really boils and the waves that never formed mix it up with convection off of Columbia and turn into huge SW Caribbean monsters and we worry that they will pull North towards the previously mentioned Cold Fronts.

This is the real season... the mix of the seasons and this is why in Colonial Days when people kept weather logs in the colonies they referred to hurricanes as Equinoxal Storms. They didn't have satellite imagery but they knew the door was open to a real hit from a storm that happened near the Fall Equinox. That's sort of what I call Captain Climo. They didn't have satellite imagery but they knew from the logs that were written before them that they needed to worry in September going into October for one hard last slam from a tropical system before true winter set in.

What does that mean TODAY?

I'm concerned personally on the region from South Florida to Charleston personally as they have been extremely active with lightning storms, high heat and humidity and growing up in Florida that is what we call Hurricane Weather. Will something pull WNW and feel the tug of an early front and roll across Florida somewhere or curve gracefully away towards the Carolinas or will one of them grind it's way like Matthew up along all the coastal beaches, causing flooding and slam into South Carolina or the Outer Banks before moving fast up the coast clipping Long Island? Maybe ... it's possible.... it's also possible the Northeast is in play when a door opens briefly for a tropical threat making landfall vs clipping Cape Cod after clipping Long Island and going up into Canada. 

What I am saying is we are beginning to change gears here away from what I have sarcastically called "ACE FOR A DAY STORMS" that form close in, flare up and make landfall and get a name and cause pain for the people trying to clean up in August Heat without electricity and bits and pieces of their lives tossed about which is really sad and yeah I've been there it's not a pretty place to be it's a make it through the day the best you can and pray there are better times coming.

In Miami post Andrew it was a hot hell with no air and no running water but daily showers provided by Mother Nature and no electricity for weeks, no cable TV for months. After Wilma we had cool air and we could sit outside around a campfire the kids made cooking off thawed out turkeys and enjoy the stars in the dark night as no one had power but we all had a cool breeze from our first early cold front.  Again words matter..........we had an early cold front.


Here's the wave train coming off of Africa.
Like contestants in a contest lined up.
They are rather close together.
Being close that's a negative.
One of the few negatives in the game.
But one or two will show they are the real thing.
The others will fade away.

I'll update later today if the NHC upgrades.
I'm not saying GOM doesn't have to worry.
They do but anywhere a cold front sets up....
..and the high shows a weakness.
A hurricane can make landfall.
And talking real hurricanes September/October.
And then...yes Virginia we will have Winter!

Give to charity those hurt by Laura.
Make sure your hurricane kits are ready.
Make sure you have a plan if you need it.
And enjoy the beauty of the day.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Warning long personal Ps today.

Ps I had a friend pass away on Saturday and no it wasn't Covid (everyone asks these days) it was Old Age issues that had been dogging him for the last few years, he was in his 80s. He was one part of a couple that I met that I loved dearly upon meeting them when I was dating my now husband back when and they would come for dinner often and they were beautiful. They were an older couple, a second marriage for both of them though hard to imagine they had lives before each other but they did as they were extremely devoted to eachother. Vircor, who passed away on Saturday, seemed like an Old Southern Gentleman but he actually was born and raised in Brooklyn and attended a Yeshiva and eventually ended up Down South where he was a professor of sorts and after his wife died and telling eveyone he wasn't going to get remarried he met Ella at a dinner party a friend from the University invited them both to so that they could meet.... to and yes Victor fell in love with Ella and really how could you not? She was an artist, and one of the sweetest souls I ever met in my life... old Southern girl from the Carolinas, she coverted and learned how to make Kosher Crab Dip with that fake crab that most your regular Chinese restaurants use ironically and she was just awesome. For a while he had a dream to own a restaurant in Emerald Isle and they moved to the coast when he "retired" and it was an adveture and they loved Salter Path (check out a map of Atlantic Beach) and after a while they gave up the restaurant and moved to Raleigh where they became regular members of the Chabad Community.  Victor loved Israel, Ella loved Southern things and anything that Victor loved and painting and teaching kids to paint and watching after Victor and I like to think of Victor back with Ella now as he passed away Saturday after telling my husband on Friday before the Jewish Sabbath when he spoke to him on the phone he "wasn't afraid to die" and I guess we both knew that was going to happen soon but so Victor to let him know he wasn't afraid.  But they lived extraordinaty lives whether they were at the beach or going to a political convention, I think they may have attended an Inaugural Ball even or trying to make a dream come true and knowing when to give it up and move on to another dream.   Miss them both but they welcomed me to Raleigh and I've felt welcome ever since. My dining room chairs are from Ella ... they had them down at the coast and I believe she had them a long time longer than that... I don't have any art of hers yet I have hand written notes filled with recipes for things I asked her how to make and she lovingly wrote cards with details carefully filled with love. They lived a life extraodinary. 



That's a picture from 2013...
...like to believe he's holding her now.


That's what their ocean looked like....
...they lived their dreams.



I only have the best of memories.
May you all build a life of such memories.
Yes, storms happen... 
...don't focus on the bad stuff.

Victor used to tell me that of all the people he counseled... 
...none were upset about the future but upset about the past.
In one way or another he was right.
Find your focus.......
....go after it.
Live your dreams.
Accept your failures.
Keep on living.
Don't be afraid of death when it comes.
Live a life extraodinary indeed.




posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:08 AM

1 Comments:

At 12:14 AM, Blogger Inaweofitall said...

Here's to Victor , sounds like he was a great friend.

 

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