Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

3 PM UPDATED. HURRICANE WARNINGS TX/LA - Hurricane Laura Forecast to Make Landfall as a Major Hurricane.. Galveston Evacuation Ordered! Where is the Exact Landfall? Stay Tuned.



I've been watching Laura on various imagery.
You always need more than one as each...
...shows something different.
But the eye seemed to be coming out.
And wouldn't be surprised if it's stronger at 5PM

After Andrew I learned one thing.
Worst case scenarios really do come true.
And if you are in the path of Laura...
... act as if you are getting the worst.
And hopefully you can look back relieved.
BUT someone is getting the worst.
The power grid is going to go down.
It's going to be even more difficult to put it back together.
Wind damage and storm surge will be bad.
Waiting to see how it evolves from Raleigh.
But I've been there and now is the time to ACT.
Not to stare in horror or shock.
I was there when the NHC upgraded Andrew to 5.
While it was headed straight towards me.
It bobbled S a degree or two.
Actually Major Hurricanes bobble a bit here and there.
Especially with eye wall reformation and well.
A matter of degrees may save you.
A matter of degrees may put you in danger.
So act now as if you are in the danger zone ...
...for the EYE.
I'll update after 5 PM.

read on please.


3 PM.
Eye forming in Hurricane Laura.
Early signs of banding as well.
Now I hope everyone takes it serious.





2 PM update.
24.3 N 86.6 W
WNW at 16 MPH
990 MB
75 MPH.

Full advisory up at 5 PM.
Any changes to the Cone will be then.
So stay tuned.


My concerns on storm surge across a wide area.
Far from the eye are explained below.





Something about this year has brought many storms to landfall while in the intensification stage. The problem with that is many look at the images, see a weak blob and think "nothing to worry about" and mention how the EURO didn't show it so strong and the next thing you know the EURO was wrong and it was a hurricane coming on shore intensifying. Granted the Euro wasn't totally wrong, but there is this disconnect with the future shape of a storm when looking at a blob not developing far out but then it develops close in as some models showed and people are upset.  And, often because storms do not live up to their hype people begin to let their guard down, remember this was in the media as one of two hurricanes making landfall at the same time along the Gulf of Mexico. I can totally understand how the general public exhausted from Covid changes to our lives and predictions for a busy hurricane season that often seemed more filled with blobs and headlines than reality have made many feel it won't happen or it will go somewhere else. It's human nature to want to deny a dangerous outcome predicted for your region, your home that has been your safe haven in a pandemic world where the thought of leaving your home is almost scarier than facing a hurricane and hoping it will just go somewhere else. 

I get it trust me. But the sad part is this is the set up, and it is forecast by the NHC to become a Major Hurricane close in as it speeds towards landfall. Can something else happen? Yes, but it will go somewhere and as a friend who worked at the NHC often told me when a hurricane gets into the Gulf of Mexico it is a bull in a china shop and damage is bound to happen. 



The video shows that the core of Laura is trying to build and intensify, again it's a huge system and it takes longer for them to do so.  As the top part of the storm wraps and it soon comes into contact with hot eddys it could become a dangerous hurricane. We can hope for the best but we have to prepare for the worst. 


These are the latest models ...
...at SpaghettiModels.








A good view from Zoom Earth.
You can lay the advisory over the map.
And note how Laura just crossed Marco's track.
Is the GOM busy enough this week?


Link at the bottom of the blog with other links.
Also note Laura is bottom heavy.
That matters, when you see her wrapping around.
And an eye pop out ...watch out!

Hurricane Warnings Posted.

Location: 23.7°N 87.0°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Details of the 11 AM above.


Salient points from 11 AM Discussion.

After landfall and moving rapidly...
There are secondary concerns.


The weather associated with Laura...
...moves N and then East across the country.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh
/MIATCDAT3+shtml/251505.shtml

Please read the discussion in the link above it is easy to read, informative and explains more than just looking at the Cone.

11 AM DATA
5 AM Images way below.
You can compare and contrast.


Use this graphic at the NHC page please.
It takes you down to street level.
Zoom in and find your specific warnings.



As the dangers do not stop at landfall...
...this graphic continues on.
Please use it.
The NHC tries to help you as many ways as possible.


Note the caved shape of the coast there...
...heightens the storm surge as the N shape of Laura..
...will fill in and create a devastating storm surge.


9 to 13 feet near the mouth of the Sabine River.
The border between TX and LA


My thoughts at 11...
This is an excellent discussion written by a forecaster who knows that area well and the concern for more than just landfall position shows as it's a dangerous set up for bayous, towns, inland areas also prone to flooding and a fast moving storm.  Personally, I'll compare the fast foward speed to Hazel in North Carolina or Isaias earlier this season though Laura will be a much stronger hurricane but hitting a point in the atmosphere where forward speed and other features create a fast, furious push of hurricane force wind much further inland than you would normally ever see. Wind damage could be a bigger issue than flooding, though storm surge along a wide area will be extensive.

I'll be updating in real time for a while. 

Understand Laura currently is a hurricane, but not a well developed one yet as it doesn't have a high and a good part of it's overall convection is sheared off towards the South and she is still bottom heavy; some of her  moisture goes all the way down to South America on the Water Vapor Imagery.  Note the above forecasted points and wind speed, they show it doesn't intensify fast at first but later on it does intensify faster and then it hits land as a major hurricane. The problem with that is PERCEPTION and people trying to decide whether to evacuate are seeing a storm currently that looks like ...well a storm, vs a MAJOR HURRICANE so a set up such as this leads to delays in decisions waiting to see "if that really plays out" by people who normally do not want to evacuate and even more so might not want to evacuate to a shelter during a Pandemic. It's not a great set up and that's an understatement.

Going to ask you to beg your forgiveness today if you see typos as my allergies are extremely bad and the hayfever bothers my eyes so if I take the stronger medicine I'll be sleeping through the 2 PM update easily and it's manageable but makes proofreading more tedious. This is not a novel, it's a advisory blog with information both to prepare for the storm and to inform you of more data than you get in Memes and to help you be informed of options including a look often at hurricane history that is my main research area with regard to hurricanes. 

Don't confuse what it looks like now with what it could look like up in the Northern Gulf of Mexico making landfall. Jogs West can be more mitigated by a more Northerly shift in track later as it approaches the coast so if you are in the 3 Day Cone and you have Hurricane Warnings prepare as if you will definitely get the eye and hopefully you will be spared but at some point not everyone can be spared if the forecast verifiges.


Again a 9 to 13 foot storm surge is probable.
With strong Cat 3 winds on top of that surge.
Deadly, destructive and disastrous. impacts.



Still forecast to become a Major Hurricane.



Written at 9 AM, still extremely important.
Links below.


I call this the DANGER ZONE..
From Hurricane Laura.
Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at Landfall.


This is the Landfall Zone above.
It's a very low lying area.
With several large cities inside that cone.
More than just Houston.
Where does Laura go exactly is the question?


This is the NRL cone.
(link at the bottom)
It shows many cities in the path.
The NHC Cone is awesome.
But details matter.
Example this shows Shreveport far inland.
It's not just about landfall along the beach.
And it hangs a hard right and shoots out to the Atlantic.
I'm in the cone in Raleigh...think on that.
2020, what a year.

Again Laura goes INLAND.
Note link to the NRL site below.


A much better signature on Earthnull this morning.



Note the image below.


The back side of Laura here above....
note the starkly vertical line on it's back side.
That was from an ULL and the strong high.
PUSHING IT FAST West to WNW.
That's why it went South of Cuba...
versus over Cuba or North of Cuba.

xxirg8.GIF (1128×680)

Wide view above.
In motion wide view below.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Yes there are more hurricanes to come soon.
So watch Laura and know we are now in Prime Time.

I know we all sound very difficult to please when it comes to parameters to be met to be impressed by a hurricane but details matter. The slightest difference in a steering current can mean Houston or Beaumont, Galveston Island is just West of the eye or takes the eye directly. A slight relaxing of the steering currents that have often kept Laura further West and South of forecast can mean Port Arhur not Galveston and it could just as easily intensify rapidly beyond the current forecast from the NHC as some models have indicated and try to go further to the North near the Sabine River that has seen many hurricane landfalls.  Every degree matters and if you don't think so reread dicscussion on Hurricane Andrew as one bobble South took the eye directly towards Homestead Florida and not downtown Miami or Ft. Lauderdale, extrapolated over time and that was a fast moving intense hurricane. 




Currently it just became a hurricane and we were all waiting. I didn't want to blog this morning until I knew it was a hurricane, Mr. @iCyclone didn't want to get in his car and start driving West from his Hurricane Cottage in Mississippi until it was a HURRICANE. It matters as it shows game on and I don't mean that in a playful way I mean that in a "now is the time to pack up your stuff and hit the road and get out of town if you are in a low lying evacuation zone" for Hurricane Laura. Again watch the graphic above not just the Cone, if by 5 PM that area has shifted West or East it will tell you where the NHC feels Laura really is going to go after much evaluation as nothing stays perfectly static in atmospheric science. The stronger it becomes, the more reinforced it's track can be and it can pick up speed or slow down, just so many variables even though we know so much there is so much more to know.

I'll give you a history example.  

Galveston was actually the financial, commercial center along the coast and main port of entry into the US in that region before the Galveston Hurricane. An idea for a ship channel was floated by many up to Houston closer inland and many thought it was a folly. Why would you need to do that when you had Galveston, the proud financial capital of that part of the Gulf of Mexico where all ships that went around Florida after stopping in Key West or Havana headed to ....to build a ship canal North to Houston. But it was Houston's luck that the ship channel was finished just around the time that Galveston was trashed by the 1900 Hurricane and yes the commerce and the financial capital became Houston and Galveston became a beautiful beach resort town.  Timing and hurricane history combined changed history.

There were many small, bustling boom town cities along the coast of Texas and Louisiana early on in history especially near the rivers as logically that's where you set up a community for navigational purposes that enhanced their financial future. And, then came the hurricanes and sometimes back to back years had hurricane landfalls and whoever survived the first storm picked up and moved inland towards higher ground after the second hurricane. Landfalling hurricanes in that region drew the future of the cities that survived and thrived and the beach towns because the places to go fish, swim and watch the ocean and enjoy it's beautiful breeze when there is no deadly hurricane on it's way.


Note how few cities are betwen Houston and New Orleans.
Cities on the coastline, some but not large ones.
Because hurricane history taught them to build inland.

A bit of hurricane history below.


Camille, Katrina, Indianola.
You remember Rita.. but not Indianola.
Because Indianola was destroyed and not rebuilt.
Lessons learned from hurricanes.

I know I sound like a broken record but please read the discussion from the NHC linked in this blog at the bottom. It's written very well and explains the thought process that went into the iconic cone. The cone sometimes gets changed or on a later advisory they up the intensity closer to landfall and if you are just looking at graphics you don't understand why a cone is not set in stone, but when you get to 2 to 3 days down the road it's pretty close. So what can change? Intensity could be stronger than currently forecast and the NHC has now officially forecast a Major Hurricane so how strong a Major is an invariable now that will be known down the road. Next invariable is which city, which beach, which bayou within the Hurricane Warning actually gets the eye and the strongest part of the eye wall that will be towards the right of the eye and that threat includes storm surge.

Bottomline:
Why are the models shifting West?  Upper Air Features that are evolving.
Does Laura cross the hottest loop eddy and avoid cooler pools of water?
The high to the North of Laura has been a question.
An upper level feature to the NW of it is a feature.
Won't a Major Hurricane want to go North... right...   Not easy being the NHC.

I'll update later today in real time.
Some links below. Song below the links. Please read the discussion from the NHC.
And if you are in an evacuation zone and they say to go ... please GO.
Otherwise take all precautions now to save your life, property and prepare for a long aftermath.
Not good news to share this morning.
Again know this will go far inland and so will the flooding rain and deadly winds.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps One thing I can tell you. This is a dangerous, deadly scenario.
This is NOT Camille. This is NOT Katrina. This is NOT IKE or RITA.
This is not the 1900 Galveston Hurricane but it IS Hurricane Laura.
Pretty sure the name will be retired.

Links:
www.spaghettimodels.com
A site Mike from Spaghettimodels.com recommends. https://zoom.earth/ (fantastic I'll add)
NRL link to map I often show from their site.  https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
This is the site we use to really slice and dice a hurricane.

Water Vapor Loop from Tropical Tidbits:
https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv-mid
Discussion:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al13/al132020.discus.022.shtml?
History links:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Indianola_hurricane
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1886_Atlantic_hurricane_season 1 of my analog years for 2020 .. 1886
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/139189444722194309/ Pinterest if you enjoy the images.
Hurricane Ike http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2008/09/ike-moving-faster-towards.html

I'll add more later today.

Song.... news this morning was Galveston issued evacuation orders. They don't mess around with hurricanes anymore.  Yes, Galveston was on it's way to being the New York City of the South and ended up being more like Atlantic City ... a place where you go to enjoy the beach.

posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:48 AM

1 Comments:

At 7:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Laura! Watch this blog with every storm, really appreciate you!
Don't you think with the higher pressure over TN than in Mexico that the storm will go west to the lower pressure?

 

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