Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

98L 90% Chances and 97L 60% EPAC has a CAT 4. Remember That. Models Will Get Better Once Laura and Marco Form a Center ...Til Then It's a Guessing Game. What's a FACT Is Hurricane Season is HERE NOW... PREPARE... GET A Plan, Have a Plan B! GOM FL Carolinas All Watching.


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Leaving this at the top for reference.
The video below shows more detail and is wider.
Listen to the videos.
Then read the blog.
Thanks.

Up close view with discussion of 98L




Next look at this loop that shows what's going on today.



And now the incredible Water Vapor Loop.
That really shows more even though it's black and white.
Vs the previous colorful loop.



In truth you put them all together and then you see...
...all the clues in this tropical mystery.

So now let's look at the NHC grahics below.



Please remember this.
97L lead system has a 20% in the 2 day.
60% in the 5 day
While it came on first it becomes a player later.
Slowly moving steady into the Caribbean.
Expected to approach the Yucatan
Question being exactly where...
Gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
Then what?

98L formed later but has figher probs.
90% chances in the 5 day.
70% chances in the 2 day.
In general it rides higher to the right of 97L
But could it follow 97L
Could they dance the Fujuiwara?
Maybe. 
So many possibilities.

Also never foreget Genevieve 


The atmosphere is fluid, connective and always flowing.
Give thanks daily on that fact.
But sometimes moisture gets entrained into fronts down the road.
Or helps erode a high.
Or one system becomes a steering factor for another.

With 3 systems on the map to watch.
Keep that in mind.
Lots of moving parts.

I can show you multiple models today but really other than for excitement and entertainment just why? 97L has a long ways to go before it gets into the Gulf of Mexico as expected. The next few days are big for 97L and again don't forget the EPAC Cat 4 that is strutting her stuff West of the Caribbean. One thing dancers learn is to do once step at a time otherwise you end up on the floor feeling stupid in your cute practice outfit because one step comes before the next to get to the end of the dance.

In theory 97L stays low, goes towards the Yucatan and then into the Gulf of Mexico, but which part of the GOM and how strong will it be? We aren't there yet. 

In theory 98L goes North of the Islands, though I wouldn't bet money on it yet, and becomes a concern for the Islands (always watching) Florida, Bahamas and then does it go through the Florida Straits or does it go periously close to landfall in Florida before curving North ala Isaias. Patterns do persist in years such as this but really at this point many options are on the table. So you do what you got to do and monitor it and in reality you should be finishing your preparations  now for the Hurricane Season as we are approaching Prime Time. It's there, you know it's there, as Phil Ferro says the models make an "educated guess" this far out and over time the models lock in on a solution or one or two and you know then what it will do. In truth today is a great day to watch it on various satellite loops. As Enya sings the song "only time" who knows... only time. We can all discuss it and shoot model solutions around like the tropical breeze but really it's in the distant Alantic still. 97L closer in but struggling it's way through the Caribbean. Phil Ferro is my South Florida meteorologist on air of choice and he's watching them both carefully. He weighs his words carefully avoiding hype but giving you information while he's not on air but if you live in the South Florida area watch him online and on air. 




Online my friend likes to talk in lytics and rhyme.
And I know way too much about his mind.
So I understand what he's showing cryptically.
Think of his feed as a great daily song list.


This is the key today for 98L
It's got an interesting day.
Google his lyrics and enjoy the music.

Lastly this is the bottom line today.


Brian Smith here nailed this.
Wait and see.
Prepare.
We have a ways to go.

IF you are going to obsess on anything today?
Make it a hurricane prep for the 2020 season.
Because there's more than 97L and 98L  out there... 
After Marco comes NANA..
September and October are a problem.


I can't show you this graph enough.

Models change from run to run.
The graph above is the guide.


97L above.


For Spaghetti Models.
Go straight to the source.
Go straight to the Master.

98L below


Bottom grid intensity.. 
This too can change.
Models are like the inconstant moon.
The trend is important.

Lastly thanks for your patience.
I'm a bit off today.
So sipping Mint Magic Tea.
Listening to Enya.
Watching loops of 98L and 97L
and our Cat 4 in the EPAC


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
I'll update at the top IF anything big happens.
Just watch and wait ... it will all evolve eventually.
A consolidated system has more accurate models.
The models have something to latch on to...
...versus making educated guesses on each run.

Ps.. song for the day... Only Time. I had a best friend who was a chiropractor who worked in the practice I managed and he passed away. Sad, yes I know. Too young. So going to sip some of his favorite Mint Magic Tea today in my Hurricane Conference mug and listen to his music that I actually have here (long story) and watch the tropical loops. Take my asthma medicine and allergy herbs and teas and Vitamin C and enjoy what everyone else is saying online. (I want to go to Miami so badly ...see my kids, family and play and research in the library there for hours on end but not this month, maybe soon who knows.. only time) 











posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:39 AM

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